Player Discussion: Ehlers

[hn777]

It doesn't matter what we think... its what GMs think

Part of extraplotaing P/60 is how many times a guy actually plays 60 minutes per season

I promise you that GMs are more interested in absolute numbers than relative ones

It just takes one GM willing to bet on Ehlers staying healthy and willing to play him on the topline/PP1 to set the market.

 

[ps241]

I guess i am!

Well as our old friend Gin said so well “growing old is mandatory, growing up is optional” words I live my life by.

 

[ps241]

It just takes one GM willing to bet on Ehlers staying healthy and willing to play him on the topline/PP1 to set the market.

If Chevy plans to extend Nik he will have a number and term in mind that is his limit. I highly doubt that exceeds our top 2 players.

However if Nik goes to free agency July 1st that is an entirely different stituaion. Teams not having to give up assets will be interested in his skill set and that will drive up the price. GM’s are under pressure to win now and Nik can help them. July 1st is always the day GM’s lose their mind and overpay.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ehlers has 22 powerplay goals in the last seven years. Vilardi by comparison, has scored 16 during his two seasons with Winnipeg.

Ki don’t think anyone would argue that ehlers is the better player. Villardi serves a role that better compliments at least in coaches eyes, but, ehlers is better.

 

[Flair Hay]

Yep, but, those are only x / 60 and not absolute stats, which I think are the important ones.

I think the important stat on there is TOI

Increase the ice time to PP1 from PP2 and you increase the points by 50%

The results seem to fluctuate wildly year to year for all the players. Makes sense as PP is so systematic.

Obviously this year we went from the bad end of the spectrum to the best so far.

If Chevy plans to extend Nik he will have a number and term in mind that is his limit. I highly doubt that exceeds our top 2 players.

However if Nik goes to free agency July 1st that is an entirely different stituaion. Teams not having to give up assets will be interested in his skill set and that will drive up the price. GM’s are under pressure to win now and Nik can help them. July 1st is always the day GM’s lose their mind and overpay.

Yeah the Scheif and Helle deals make a nice little glass ceiling that still lines uo with a fair deal for Ehlers. Still believe it gets done around 8.25 per year.

 

[Buffdog]

It just takes one GM willing to bet on Ehlers staying healthy and willing to play him on the topline/PP1 to set the market.

I think a team like Carolina would have valued him like that, and I wouldn't be surprised if the rumblings of a deal around Nik for Necas didn't have some truth

(And I'd like to go on record as saying that I always one of the few HFJets posters who liked the idea - look at Necas now)

 

[Flair Hay]

It just takes one GM willing to bet on Ehlers staying healthy and willing to play him on the topline/PP1 to set the market.

I wonder what Ehlers absolute numbers would look like if he signs in Edmonton or Montreal.

What are his numbers with MY team? That's what a GM will be thinking.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I wonder what Ehlers absolute numbers would look like if he signs in Edmonton or Montreal.

What are his numbers with MY team? That's what a GM will be thinking.

They will then try to lower price with actual numbers as everyone wants to pay as little as possible while ensuring they get him. Hope he doesn’t sign with one of our rivals like Minnesota.

 

[bustamente]

Make not mistake about it if Nik walks to free agency he will plenty of suitors, of course he and his agent know this and that make Chevy's job even harder.

 

[KingBogo]

Are you immature? You did it yourself like 4 posts below..

On another Note.

Ehlers has to be the most devisive player ever.. No middleground.

Either fanboys who adore him,
or haters.

I find it so weird that some posters REALLY dislike and underrate him. Think the fanboyism has gone down. But the dislike has gotten crazy.

Would I love for Ehlers to stay a Jet? Sure, but Ehlers deserves to try something new, and we should move on.

Best for both parties, as I do not believe Ehlers will ever reach his full potential here.

Ridiculous to claim he has hit his ceiling at 28.

Who dislikes Ehlers? I’ve just read through the last 3 pages and the gap is between how much is Ehlers worth long term not if he is a good player. No one has showed any hate. I’d put myself in the middle somewhere on his value as I think GMs will side with absolute over relative numbers. 7 X $8 seems fair.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think the important stat on there is TOI

Increase the ice time to PP1 from PP2 and you increase the points by 50%

The results seem to fluctuate wildly year to year for all the players. Makes sense as PP is so systematic.

Obviously this year we went from the bad end of the spectrum to the best so far.


Yeah the Scheif and Helle deals make a nice little glass ceiling that still lines uo with a fair deal for Ehlers. Still believe it gets done around 8.25 per year.

As I’ve mentioned earlier I think if given opportunities, that he deserves, he could have shattered the 60 pt amount.

I still value absolute stats and on this team he won’t get the opportunities he needs. I don’t know how you give 8.5 to a guy the jets only play on 3rd line. As there is not a spot for him for the jets to extract max value. But, in a different scenario also given a bit better health he is Absolutely worth 9mil.

I don’t think you can compare his contract to those signed in the past if cap goes up, but, I don’t think given his situation he can ask for more than 8.25 as a jet as you mentioned.

 

[10Ducky10]

Trade him in a deal for a RHD.
I neither hate nor adore him.

 

[WaveRaven]

Should have been long gone by now. I'm a little confused as what they're thinking at this point. You'd think that best offers have been thrown out there by now and if he's not willing to sign then he has to go. Letting him walk for nothing is dumb in a city that can't sign 3rd liners never mind top 6.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Should have been long gone by now. I'm a little confused as what they're thinking at this point. You'd think that best offers have been thrown out there by now and if he's not willing to sign then he has to go. Letting him walk for nothing is dumb in a city that can't sign 3rd liners never mind top 6.

Yet, for all the players we can’t sign we are still the regular season champs. Po is a completely different story.

 

[WaveRaven]

Yet, for all the players we can’t sign we are still the regular season champs. Po is a completely different story.

Regular season champs is about as meaningful as pre season champs.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Regular season champs is about as meaningful as pre season champs.

I’d take pre-season champs as well.

 

[DRW204]

This makes sense to me and, if he stays healthy this season, it should bump up the top end to the 8.5M range. I can't see Chevy going above Scheifele/Helle's 8.5 AAV but as a percent of a rising cap it will be less.

Those who see him as just another 60 point player are entitled to their opinion, but, again, playing the role of Ehlers' agent, I would support him betting on himself in the UFA market.

There are almost certainly GMs who will pay him on the high side of the range if the Jets aren't interested. If he stays healthy and is given the right opportunity, he could really shine. I look at his play this year and his stats/60 over the last number of years as much more predictive than a small playoff sample (just like playoff Helle). The only risk I see, and it is a big one, is whether his body will last.

He's on track to break through his previous career high this year, despite lowest ATOI, the pp1 duties help.

I think 7ishm is fair for him. Term will always be a bit of a problem for ufa contracts I think, team's just live with it and find ways to get out of it at the end though

 

[voyageur]

Should have been long gone by now. I'm a little confused as what they're thinking at this point. You'd think that best offers have been thrown out there by now and if he's not willing to sign then he has to go. Letting him walk for nothing is dumb in a city that can't sign 3rd liners never mind top 6.

Would you tell that to your dressing room if you are Chevy? "As many of you know, some of you won't be back next year, it's hard to manage the numbers in the Cap era, but because one is outperforming everyone else, we feel the need to move him to be in a better position next year."

You go with who gets you to the point you are.

If next year sucks, at least this one is a ride to remember.

 

[Weezeric]

I guess Ehlers could take the Jeff Skinner approach to free agency. I hope he doesn’t though.

 

[DRW204]

Should have been long gone by now. I'm a little confused as what they're thinking at this point. You'd think that best offers have been thrown out there by now and if he's not willing to sign then he has to go. Letting him walk for nothing is dumb in a city that can't sign 3rd liners never mind top 6.

Idk they've signed some solid top 9 level players in nino and namestnikov recently. Stastny waived his NMC, and re-signed here too. And then outside of fwds--DeMelo re-signed here twice. When the Jets acquire a player it seems like there is higher chance they re-sign here. Even Dillon wanted to be back, and seems like we were heavily considered by Monahan. Toffoli for sure was a goner.

July 1 the Jets def are not huge players and aren't going to get the big fish most likely. However, this can be seen as a bit of an advantage as most big name UFA contracts end up sucking, so the Jets aren't saddled with that.

Think at the end of the day, the Jets view they have a generational goaltender, solid top 4 and top 6 with the top line performing the way it has been this season. They'll go for it especially having that certainty in net. Idk what ehlers with 1 year remaining is getting outside of futures or player in a same contract situation (which essentially leaves us here again)

Would you tell that to your dressing room if you are Chevy? "As many of you know, some of you won't be back next year, it's hard to manage the numbers in the Cap era, but because one is outperforming everyone else, we feel the need to move him to be in a better position next year."

You go with who gets you to the point you are.

If next year sucks, at least this one is a ride to remember.

There was something last year where the early Nino extension didn't sit well with other players on the Jets who wanted to re-sign here. This strikes me as Dillon again, maybe DeMelo? He eventually got his bag, probably wanted the contract done earlier for future certainty tho, not sure.
I wonder if the Jets were pausing contract negotiations until after the season to avoid distractions while in the midst of a great season

 

[TS Quint]

The thing is opportunity is everything in hockey. Iff Ehlers was on PP1 and line 1 getting 20 mins a night the last 8 years, the bet is he would have significantly more points each season.

The argument is, If Connor played the same role and received same ice time on pp2 like Ehlers has the last few years, he would struggle to be much more than 60 point guy as well.

Who is an example of getting more on their contract because of the points they didn’t score?

 

[johnnyonthspot]

I think the important stat on there is TOI

Increase the ice time to PP1 from PP2 and you increase the points by 50%

The results seem to fluctuate wildly year to year for all the players. Makes sense as PP is so systematic.

Obviously this year we went from the bad end of the spectrum to the best so far.


Yeah the Scheif and Helle deals make a nice little glass ceiling that still lines uo with a fair deal for Ehlers. Still believe it gets done around 8.25 per year.

KFC will break that glass ceiling.
Ehlers is the Jets rental.
I think he is as good as gone to a team like ANH or SJ where he is guaranteed first line minutes.
His poor playoffs performances and injury bug make him expendable as sad as that is to say

 

[WaveRaven]

Idk they've signed some solid top 9 level players in nino and namestnikov recently. Stastny waived his NMC, and re-signed here too. And then outside of fwds--DeMelo re-signed here twice. When the Jets acquire a player it seems like there is higher chance they re-sign here. Even Dillon wanted to be back, and seems like we were heavily considered by Monahan. Toffoli for sure was a goner.

July 1 the Jets def are not huge players and aren't going to get the big fish most likely. However, this can be seen as a bit of an advantage as most big name UFA contracts end up sucking, so the Jets aren't saddled with that.

Think at the end of the day, the Jets view they have a generational goaltender, solid top 4 and top 6 with the top line performing the way it has been this season. They'll go for it especially having that certainty in net. Idk what ehlers with 1 year remaining is getting outside of futures or player in a same contract situation (which essentially leaves us here again)

So you agree we can't sign top 6. Names isn't a true top 6.

I would have traded him with 2 years left. He's not a playoff performer often injured and a perimeter player. Plus you're trying to win a Cup no ? We have a talented team that's not enough you need to get the right mix. They keep trying to pound a square peg into a round hole. This dog ain't gonna hunt in late April.

We need both D and 2nd line help. He could have possibly been moved for that.

Anyhow we'll see come playoffs. I'll just sit back and wait fool me once fool me twice but not 3 times.

 

[NA Hockey]

Who is an example of getting more on their contract because of the points they didn’t score?

There are plenty of guys that got overpaid or paid more than their stats would suggest once they hit free agency.

All I have said is Ehlers isn’t signing in Winnipeg and someone will pay him pretty big money on a long term deal and that his stats have been suppressed by lack of opportunity. Someone will pay for what they think he can be.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I mean if you compare injuries to our other top 3 schief has probably missed less than 5 games for injuries in the last 4 years. Connor has missed very little time, Morrissey has missed very little time. Morrissey has missed a total of 7 games in last 3 seasons. Last 2 seasons schief has missed a total of 9 games. Connor missed 17 games last season, but the two previous seasons he has missed a total of 3 games. Ehlers missed no games last season, but previous 2 seasons he missed 57 games.


If Ehlers is getting over 8 mil for 78 points, Connor is getting over 11 million for over a 100 points and the team numbers thrown out here are even more inaccurate.

Look all around the league. Ehlers has probably missed more than average, but not massively so. There are plenty of players who miss a lot of games getting big money.

The way Connor has played this year he will get 11+, if he keeps it up. And Ehlers will get 9.