Player Discussion: Ehlers

[TS Quint]

When it comes to injuries, there definitely is a lot more luck involved. Some guys just don't have the ability to stay healthy, I get that. I'm not sure Ehlers is in that bucket.

And playoffs isn't 10 years of data, it's basically 30 games for him, half of which was on his ELC. But I acknowledge it's a concern for sure. Even Joe Thornton made the finals once!

You seem to be acknowledging you are betting on a big underdog.

 

[scelaton]

FWIW
Prior to this season, evolving hockey who run at pretty high accuracy had ehlers at 7.5-8m depending on term.
I doubt the Jets are trading him. Really, if you're concerned about losing players for nothing, Pionk is having more of the abnormal year based on career norms just in time for a new contract as a UFA to be

This makes sense to me and, if he stays healthy this season, it should bump up the top end to the 8.5M range. I can't see Chevy going above Scheifele/Helle's 8.5 AAV but as a percent of a rising cap it will be less.

Those who see him as just another 60 point player are entitled to their opinion, but, again, playing the role of Ehlers' agent, I would support him betting on himself in the UFA market.

There are almost certainly GMs who will pay him on the high side of the range if the Jets aren't interested. If he stays healthy and is given the right opportunity, he could really shine. I look at his play this year and his stats/60 over the last number of years as much more predictive than a small playoff sample (just like playoff Helle). The only risk I see, and it is a big one, is whether his body will last.

 

[Flair Hay]

You seem to be acknowledging you are betting on a big underdog.

An elite player with flaws is how I would put it.

 

[Adam da bomb]

This makes sense to me and, if he stays healthy this season, it should bump up to the 8.5M range. I can't see Chevy going above Scheifele/Helle's 8.5 AAV but as a percent of a rising cap it will be less.

Those who see him as a 60 point player are entitled to their opinion, but, again, playing the role of Ehlers' agent, I would support him betting on himself in the UFA market.

There are almost certainly GMs who will pay him on the high side of the range if the Jets aren't interested. If he stays healthy and is given the right opportunity, he could really shine. I look at his play this year and his stats/60 over the last number of years as much more predictive than a small playoff sample (just like playoff Helle). The only risk I see, and it is a big one, is whether his body will last.

I agree/ understand with most of your arguments I don’t think Helle and Schief’s contracts should affect anything as Connor will get a lot more than their 8.5 next year. Especially if he can keep up his play.

 

[TS Quint]

This makes sense to me and, if he stays healthy this season, it should bump up the top end to the 8.5M range. I can't see Chevy going above Scheifele/Helle's 8.5 AAV but as a percent of a rising cap it will be less.

Those who see him as just another 60 point player are entitled to their opinion, but, again, playing the role of Ehlers' agent, I would support him betting on himself in the UFA market.

There are almost certainly GMs who will pay him on the high side of the range if the Jets aren't interested. If he stays healthy and is given the right opportunity, he could really shine. I look at his play this year and his stats/60 over the last number of years as much more predictive than a small playoff sample (just like playoff Helle). The only risk I see, and it is a big one, is whether his body will last.

Again you are betting against all past data. He has been hurt. He hasn't scored more than 64 points EVER, nevermind recently. These types of evaluations are extremely favorable to the player. Sure, if everything turns out right you might be right, but the chances of that happening every year for the next 6,7,8 years is damn near zero. Even half of those years you can't seriously be expecting those p/60 to turn out. Half of those years if you are being honest, it will, turn out horribly.

 

[Buffdog]

His pts/season and pts/60 tell extremely different stories. Depends which we think is a more accurate reflection of this playet

It doesn't matter what we think... its what GMs think

Part of extraplotaing P/60 is how many times a guy actually plays 60 minutes per season

I promise you that GMs are more interested in absolute numbers than relative ones

 

[NA Hockey]

Again you are betting against all past data. He has been hurt. He hasn't scored more than 64 points EVER, nevermind recently. These types of evaluations are extremely favorable to the player. Sure, if everything turns out right you might be right, but the chances of that happening every year for the next 6,7,8 years is damn near zero. Even half of those years you can't seriously be expecting those p/60 to turn out. Half of those years if you are being honest, it will, turn out horribly.

The thing is opportunity is everything in hockey. Iff Ehlers was on PP1 and line 1 getting 20 mins a night the last 8 years, the bet is he would have significantly more points each season.

The argument is, If Connor played the same role and received same ice time on pp2 like Ehlers has the last few years, he would struggle to be much more than 60 point guy as well.

 

[Adam da bomb]

The thing is opportunity is everything in hockey. Iff Ehlers was on PP1 and line 1 getting 20 mins a night the last 8 years, the bet is he would have significantly more points each season.

The argument is, If Connor played the same role and received same ice time on pp2 like Ehlers has the last few years, he would struggle to be much more than 60 point guy as well.

Opportunity is everything in life. But, Connor did the opportunities did get the results and will get paid for it.

Ehlers did not get the opportunities did not get the results and now can’t expect to get paid for it.

Ovi would never have scored all those goals without great playmakers. Other players can’t say they would have been ovi if they had got the same opportunities, because they didn’t and didn’t get the same results.

It just becomes a game of what if.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I would love Ehlers to stay because of his impact this year on the power play. It's so good with him on it full time now.

We all know the importance of special teams in the playoffs.

If his answer is no tho, I don't want him to walk for nothing.

 

[NA Hockey]

Opportunity is everything in life. But, Connor did the opportunities did get the results and will get paid for it.

Ehlers did not get the opportunities did not get the results and now can’t expect to get paid for it.

Ovi would never have scored all those goals without great playmakers. Other players can’t say they would have been ovi if they had got the same opportunities, because they didn’t and didn’t get the same results.

It just becomes a game of what if.

I agree with you and Connor deserves to be paid. I think the lack of opportunity during almost a decade of play in Winnipeg though is why Ehlers will leave. I bet he wants the opportunities he hasn't gotten and probably feels like he deserved. Someone is going to pay him to be a front line player for them.

You said it yourself "Ehlers did not get the opportunities did not get the results and now can’t expect to get paid for it." He likely wants the opportunity to get the results he is capable of.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I agree with you and Connor deserves to be paid. I think the lack of opportunity during almost a decade of play in Winnipeg though is why Ehlers will leave. I bet he wants the opportunities he hasn't gotten and probably feels like he deserved. Someone is going to pay him to be a front line player for them.

You said it yourself "Ehlers did not get the opportunities did not get the results and now can’t expect to get paid for it." He likely wants the opportunity to get the results he is capable of.

And he deserves them. He has been great and could have accomplished more if given the right situation. If that’s with another team will suck to lose him but he deserves it.
When given the opportunity he has generally risen to the occasion. He was great on the top line when given chance, he was great on the top pp. He could have been a much higher scoring impactful player if given opportunity which jets haven’t given him. I don’t blame either party, as they had someone else they preferred who also made most of opportunities but, can see why he’d want to leave.

Selfishly I want to keep him in the same situation as it’s been great for us and he’s been fun to watch, but, if he wants to get paid or wants glory it’s not best for him.

 

[Whileee]

I have a very hard time believing that the Jets would pay Ehlers more than Scheifele or Hellebuyck, even with the salary cap going up next season. That puts his ceiling at around $8M. I don't think Ehlers would balk at a long-term deal at $8M if he is happy with his role and team. I think his decision about whether to re-sign with the Jets would be based more on that. However, I'm also not sure the Jets wouldn't consider moving Ehlers to fill a gap somewhere else in their roster. The one part of their prospect pool that looks fairly strong is at F / W. None are at Ehlers' level, but the Jets aren't going to get full value / impact out of Ehlers as long as he's playing a 2nd / 3rd line role.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I have a very hard time believing that the Jets would pay Ehlers more than Scheifele or Hellebuyck, even with the salary cap going up next season. That puts his ceiling at around $8M. I don't think Ehlers would balk at a long-term deal at $8M if he is happy with his role and team. I think his decision about whether to re-sign with the Jets would be based more on that. However, I'm also not sure the Jets wouldn't consider moving Ehlers to fill a gap somewhere else in their roster. The one part of their prospect pool that looks fairly strong is at F / W. None are at Ehlers' level, but the Jets aren't going to get full value / impact out of Ehlers as long as he's playing a 2nd / 3rd line role.

If ehlers is worried about amount because of schief and Helly does that mean Connor should take less than them too? Helly is our star. But, if you are guessing Kc will get less than 9 you will be sadly disappointed.

 

[kylbaz]

I was saying earlier that I think they will have to over pay ($9M) to get him to even think about staying. Anything in the $7-8M range and he will go elsewhere to get that money and be a top line/1st pp player. I believe he is done playing second fiddle and has decided to go somewhere else to get that opportunity as he will never get it in Winnipeg.

Said the same for a couple years now. He's tired of being second line. I hope he stays but a good chance he goes somewhere to be on the first line. You'd have to think he's been waiting for the chance. Only hope is he loves it here and wants to stay.

 

[Whileee]

If ehlers is worried about amount because of schief and Helly does that mean Connor should take less than them too? Helly is our star. But, if you are guessing Kc will get less than 9 you will be sadly disappointed.

I could see the Jets paying Connor more than Scheifele and Hellebuyck because he's on par with Scheifele in the player tiers and he'll be starting his next contract two years after Scheifele and Hellebuyck. But I think it's highly unlikely that Ehlers will be placed above 55 and 37 just a year after them.

Said the same for a couple years now. He's tired of being second line. I hope he stays but a good chance he goes somewhere to be on the first line. You'd have to think he's been waiting for the chance. Only hope is he loves it here and wants to stay.

The problem for Ehlers might be finding a team that plays him and pays him as a top line F and is also a contender. Lots of examples of players going to another team and ending up in a bad situation with a bad team. I think Ehlers might decide to try another situation, but I don't think it'll be an easy call for him if the Jets step up with a good, long contract offer.

 

[LowLefty]

I could see the Jets paying Connor more than Scheifele and Hellebuyck because he's on par with Scheifele in the player tiers and he'll be starting his next contract two years after Scheifele and Hellebuyck. But I think it's highly unlikely that Ehlers will be placed above 55 and 37 just a year after them.


The problem for Ehlers might be finding a team that plays him and pays him as a top line F and is also a contender. Lots of examples of players going to another team and ending up in a bad situation with a bad team. I think Ehlers might decide to try another situation, but I don't think it'll be an easy call for him if the Jets step up with a good, long contract offer.

Agree with all of this -
And it wouldn't surprise me to see Ehlers go to a non-contender - I'd bet he'd enjoy the freedom that might come with that.
He'd likely get all the ice time he wants and he'd probably be able to drive a line any way he wants - which I think he'd love.
Hhe's always struck me as the type of player that would rather not get tied down to systems or even a game plan - he just wants the puck and an angle at the net. He'd probably have a blast.

 

[voyageur]

He's not that good. Sorry. And will be worse into his 30s.

We have 3 good defensemen. That's a problem. Giving Pionk an anchor contract, while letting Ehlers or Connor go to make room for it, is criminal.

Everybody loves a good scorer.

Nikita Chibrikov plays with our same no good 2C and not good enough Perfetti. Scores a couple of goals in 4 games. Fits in nice on PP2 making room for Pionk to shoot. Even blocks shots.

But fans don't appreciate a couple of hard PK minutes. Shot blocks. A 60 point forward, 16 minute forward to most has more value than a 30 point 22 minute d-man. Not a single d-man down the lineup has shown any sign of being a steady 20 minute defenseman. And there's only one prospect in the system. Given how long it took Samberg to become a 20 minute defenseman, I think people are hedging their bets here.

Most hockey people would say it's much easier to replace a top 6 winger than a top 4 d-man.

Pionk's one year older than Ehlers. So going forward who's more likely to get injured? The guy playing every game every year or the guy who already missed time this year trying to make a hit, who has some hernia issues? When Ehlers loses a step he's probably in for some serious injuries.

I wouldn't go the distance on a contract for Neal but 5 years with Samberg in his prime seems like a good investment.

As for all the forward prospects what do you with them if you re-sign Ehlers? Everyone will say 3rd line 4th line and never think once of special teams and those hard penalty kill minutes you need. Those role player minutes that are part of why the team is winning. Definitely part of Scott Arniel's strategy. You can't just plug skill guys into defensive roles, Arniel has shown no sign of doing that yet. You can develop them into those roles, but that's a process, usually starts in the A. Do you trade them for defensive help? Has Chevy ever traded prospects, unless they didn't want to be here?

So it's a tough one.

All I know is that there is no way the Jets trade Ehlers this year, because the Salary Cap is going to make it hard for Chevy to keep everyone. And some of the players that will be lost will affect the overall performance in the future. Chevy can't bank on next year or the year after when you have a veteran team in their prime performing. You don't take those kind of results for granted, because the guys who are getting you the results have a limited lifetime of success, and this year it's come together beyond what was expected.

We can talk about career years, but there's also the coaching change. I guess it's Chevy's job to distinguish who is worth what investment on contract year results.

The one question I'd throw out there is who is worth more to this team in the offseason Vilardi or Ehlers?

The type of goals Vilardi scores on the PP, not every player can do that, or is willing to go there. But without him I don't think the PP is as good.
He plays more minutes on a higher line than Ehlers...what's he worth relatively?

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

The thing is opportunity is everything in hockey. Iff Ehlers was on PP1 and line 1 getting 20 mins a night the last 8 years, the bet is he would have significantly more points each season.

When given the opportunity he has generally risen to the occasion. He was great on the top line when given chance, he was great on the top pp. He could have been a much higher scoring impactful player if given opportunity which jets haven’t given him.

2015-16 - #30 PP% at 14.8

2016-17 - #18 PP% at 18.2

2017-18 - #5 PP% at 23.4

2018-19 - #4 PP% at 24.8

2019-20 - #15 PP% at 20.5

2020-21 *Played in the Bubble - #7 PP% at 23.0

2021-22 - #17 PP% at 20.6

2022-23 - #23 PP% at 19.3

2023-24 - #21 PP% at 18.8

2024-25 - #1 PP% at 31.3

​

 

[Adam da bomb]

2015-16 - #30 PP% at 14.8

View attachment 953309

2016-17 - #18 PP% at 18.2

View attachment 953310

2017-18 - #5 PP% at 23.4

View attachment 953311

2018-19 - #4 PP% at 24.8

View attachment 953313

2019-20 - #15 PP% at 20.5

View attachment 953315

2020-21 *Played in the Bubble - #7 PP% at 23.0

View attachment 953316

2021-22 - #17 PP% at 20.6

View attachment 953317

2022-23 - #23 PP% at 19.3

View attachment 953318

2023-24 - #21 PP% at 18.8

View attachment 953319

2024-25 - #1 PP% at 31.3

View attachment 953320​

Yep, but, those are only x / 60 and not absolute stats, which I think are the important ones.

 

[Weezeric]

Yep, but, those are only x / 60 and not absolute stats, which I think are the important ones.

Ehlers has 22 powerplay goals in the last seven years. Vilardi by comparison, has scored 16 during his two seasons with Winnipeg.

 

[ps241]

I have a very hard time believing that the Jets would pay Ehlers more than Scheifele or Hellebuyck, even with the salary cap going up next season. That puts his ceiling at around $8M. I don't think Ehlers would balk at a long-term deal at $8M if he is happy with his role and team. I think his decision about whether to re-sign with the Jets would be based more on that. However, I'm also not sure the Jets wouldn't consider moving Ehlers to fill a gap somewhere else in their roster. The one part of their prospect pool that looks fairly strong is at F / W. None are at Ehlers' level, but the Jets aren't going to get full value / impact out of Ehlers as long as he's playing a 2nd / 3rd line role.

It will be interesting to see it play out. I don’t have the best read on this one but Chevy tends to keep me guessing. As far as paying him more than Scheif or Helle there is zero chance IMO.

There are two sides to pending opprotunity so let me take a crack at both.

I love the way Brendan Dillon plays hockey and what he brought to our team, but, I didn’t want us to sign a four year contract with a 34 year old who’s a fighter and was also blocking Samberg. With Nik his age is fine still but I don’t love the idea of going long on his next deal due to his durability. He is one of my favorite Jets to watch, I love the kids compete, and we don’t have any in house replacement with his talent that I can see at least, but long term deals for players that you can maybe count on for 60 games now let alone when he gets in his 30’s seems too risky for me.

Now to steelman the other side of this argument. This is our window and when Scheifele, Helle, and Josh age out the regular season good times will end here and it won’t be pretty so I don’t think the back end of these current deals will be that big a problem in the next closed window era. If Chevy signs Nik I wouldn’t be that surprised. If Nik remains on the 1st PP unit he moves up to closer to that PPG type level of scoring even while playing on an unconventional second line. It really depends on if this is who Scott Arniel sees Nik as now (is he a full time PP1 guy) and whether he trusts his next 3 seasons. Our #1 PP unit has been a revaluation so far this season so huge props to the coaching and the personal.

Ehlers usually fetches about 9 to 12 powerplay points per season (raw numbers) playing on the second unit. He’s pacing for about 32 PP points this season over 82 games working on the top unit. If he is finally a made man, and remains on that 1st until you are signing more of a PPG player that can prop up a second line while healthy, that you can’t count on to remain healthy lol.

Your move Chevy.

 

[AstrophysicalJet]

Probably the most immature thing I've seen on here.

Are you immature? You did it yourself like 4 posts below..

On another Note.

Ehlers has to be the most devisive player ever.. No middleground.

Either fanboys who adore him,
or haters.

I find it so weird that some posters REALLY dislike and underrate him. Think the fanboyism has gone down. But the dislike has gotten crazy.

Would I love for Ehlers to stay a Jet? Sure, but Ehlers deserves to try something new, and we should move on.

Best for both parties, as I do not believe Ehlers will ever reach his full potential here.

Ridiculous to claim he has hit his ceiling at 28.

 

[Jet]

Are you immature? You did it yourself like 4 posts below..

On another Note.

Ehlers has to be the most devisive player ever.. No middleground.

Either fanboys who adore him,
or haters.

I find it so weird that some posters REALLY dislike and underrate him. Think the fanboyism has gone down. But the dislike has gotten crazy.

Would I love for Ehlers to stay a Jet? Sure, but Ehlers deserves to try something new, and we should move on.

Best for both parties, as I do not believe Ehlers will ever reach his full potential here.

Ridiculous to claim he has hit his ceiling at 28.

I guess i am!

 

[hn777]

@hn777 you seem to think something is funny. Maybe you can enlighten us with your comparable that makes Ehlers worth more than $8m long term. No one else seems to be able to do it.

He has scored 61, you don’t get to be considered a 70-80 pt player till you score 70-80 pts. No one gives credit for pace.
He was used poorly, then he was used poorly, but, he doesn’t get credit for points he has never got.
If he does it this season, by end of season he can be a 70-80 pt guy.

Connor isn’t a 100 pt guy because he is pacing for it..

@TS Quint and @Adam da bomb
I am sorry for using the laughing emoji. That was unnecessary and disrespectful. I should have replied to your comments instead.

@TS Quint
As for comparables, I don't see any. Ehlers is quite unique. AFAIK, no other present players has consistently put up 60+ points pace with similar usage - middle-6 5v5 and limited PP. Or PPG points pace with his present usage - middle-6 5v5 and PP1.
Players with higher point totals than Ehlers consistently play top-6, PP1 and have higher total TOI.
@TS Quint Which player(s) do you see as comparables for his new contract taking points AND usage into account?

As I see it, you can't disregard usage, when discussing contract. Someone will wanna sign Ehlers to a topline role, play him accordingly (Top-6 and PP1) expecting PPG production... and pay him accordingly, that's $8m+.

The Jets will not sign him to a topline role (that's Connor, Vilardi for the foreseeable future on the wings), but may still re-sign him to the present role/usage (middle-6 and PP1). I'd be very surprised, if Ehlers signs anywhere for less than $8m. I expect $8-8,5m if it's with the Jets. May be higher somewhere else depending on health and playoff success this year.

 

[Flair Hay]

It doesn't matter what we think... its what GMs think

Part of extraplotaing P/60 is how many times a guy actually plays 60 minutes per season

I promise you that GMs are more interested in absolute numbers than relative ones

I'm being challenged on what I think so that's how I'm responding.

Are you immature? You did it yourself like 4 posts below..

On another Note.

Ehlers has to be the most devisive player ever.. No middleground.

Either fanboys who adore him,
or haters.

I find it so weird that some posters REALLY dislike and underrate him. Think the fanboyism has gone down. But the dislike has gotten crazy.

Would I love for Ehlers to stay a Jet? Sure, but Ehlers deserves to try something new, and we should move on.

Best for both parties, as I do not believe Ehlers will ever reach his full potential here.

Ridiculous to claim he has hit his ceiling at 28.

With most players it would be silly to say. I don't expect him to get better per se... but with his usage finally being close to that of a true top line player, his career best seasons are absolutely ahead of him.

Injuries I get. It's a risk. But if you aren't expecting a point a game from Ehlers when he does play in this role, you aren't looking. This is what he has always been.