Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Flair Hay]

FWIW
Prior to this season, evolving hockey who run at pretty high accuracy had ehlers at 7.5-8m depending on term.
I doubt the Jets are trading him. Really, if you're concerned about losing players for nothing, Pionk is having more of the abnormal year based on career norms just in time for a new contract as a UFA to be.

@TS Quint sounds like 7.75 was the projection. Not sure who the most specific comparables are.

I just kind of figure if we had to leak half a mil to make it happen that would be acceptable.

 

[TS Quint]

@TS Quint sounds like 7.75 was the projection. Not sure who the most specific comparables are.

I just kind of figure if we had to leak half a mil to make it happen that would be acceptable.

You are happy with a top end of 61 points in the next 8 years for $8.5m? I have no idea how you get there. Why do you hate the Jets so much?

He's 28. He's not getting better.

 

[Adam da bomb]

@TS Quint sounds like 7.75 was the projection. Not sure who the most specific comparables are.

I just kind of figure if we had to leak half a mil to make it happen that would be acceptable.

It would, but, some people here are talking bout 9 mil.

 

[voyageur]

The Pionk discussion gets interesting when you add in what he might want in his next contract - I think he is OK but not worth what they pay him now.
But I also realize how difficult it is to find dmen of value on the market - they just don't come up much and we are at the back of the line when they do.

But, in the end, you need to build a balanced blueline:
With his contract in mind, I think he needs a really good partner - which he shouldn't at $6M - he should be the guy on the second pair that can play with most anyone. Not to be over critical, but I always fall back to the contract - he's not cheap. I've always struggled to understand why offensive dmen are paid the way they are - most won't align with my position here but I like my dmen to be able to handle the dzone as well as they do the Ozone - and the good ones do that.

Once Samberg is back, Pionk will look like a $6M dman (mainly due to his offense). I wonder what Ville would look like with Samberg? Assuming the defensive zone heavy lifting was Samberg, he'd be free to display his offense (if it's there) and would likely look a lot better - maybe good enough. Now go out and find a LHD who can defend on the third pair, and you have a lineup that is somewhat balanced (offense vs defense blueline).
You can then pay Samberg because he is going to get paid - and if paired with Pionk (after both contracts), how much would out 2nd pair be costing us? I think you know where I'm going with this.

IMO, the org should be more concerned about defense when spending money on the blueline - we have JoMo who can do his thing on the PP (which is where I see most of the benefit for offensive D) - if you have guys back there that can make an outlet pass, that's all the offense I'm really looking for when you consider the fire power we have up front.

I disagree with you here. I can remember the debates on these boards when Tyler Myers had a $6 million cap hit on the 3rd pairing. Who signed for roughly the same as the UFA. Jets have weathered injuries to Samberg and to Ehlers. And still sit near the top of the league with this #2 d man that gets no love. Has been remarkably healthy. I think it's somewhat nuts that he is seen as separable from Samberg when he literally took the kid in as a pro. Does Samberg make him better? Much like De Melo made Morrissey better than Poolman.

Ehlers now there is some depth behind him. I hope he comes back but it's a big picture. The future of Connor is uncertain the future of Ehlers is uncertain. I'll wait to see how it plays out, but I suspect Pionk is valued very much behind closed doors. Ehlers too but we won't know where his heart is until this season plays itself out.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I disagree with you here. I can remember the debates on these boards when Tyler Myers had a $6 million cap hit on the 3rd pairing. Who signed for roughly the same as the UFA. Jets have weathered injuries to Samberg and to Ehlers. And still sit near the top of the league with this #2 d man that gets no love. Has been remarkably healthy. I think it's somewhat nuts that he is seen as separable from Samberg when he literally took the kid in as a pro. Does Samberg make him better? Much like De Melo made Morrissey better than Poolman.

Ehlers now there is some depth behind him. I hope he comes back but it's a big picture. The future of Connor is uncertain the future of Ehlers is uncertain. I'll wait to see how it plays out, but I suspect Pionk is valued very much behind closed doors. Ehlers too but we won't know where his heart is until this season plays itself out.

I’d lay money on Connor’s fate being certain. He gets along great with teams stars and there is no way they upset schief by letting his buddy go.

 

[Flair Hay]

It would, but, some people here are talking bout 9 mil.

I think I read 9 mil on in the context of another team paying him that on July 1, not us.

 

[Buffdog]

I just had a peek at the 8M contracts signed last year and all the players seemed to have few seasons in the 60-80 points range prior to the signing

There were a couple of head scratchers like PLD and Meier (who was coming off back to back 30+ goal seasons and had one season of 76 points)

I'm a big Ehlers fan but he isn't worth 8M+ based on league-wide comps

 

[Flair Hay]

You are happy with a top end of 61 points in the next 8 years for $8.5m? I have no idea how you get there. Why do you hate the Jets so much?

He's 28. He's not getting better.

I'll do my best to not make this an essay.

His pts/60 is extremely good, easily 1st line level. Best on the team for I think 4 of last 6 years?

His potential production has been lowered over the years by:
-injuries
-3rd line 5v5 time
-2nd PP time

Arniel has fixed 1 of the above. And voila he is producing over a point a game.

His playoff struggles have to play into it too. That concern I get.

To me you want to pay guys for what they will do, not what they have done. Ehlers is looking like a 80 point guy in 3rd line ice time with top PP time. That to me is worth 9 mil??? But it's Ehlers and he's had injury and playoff struggles. And less raw production than 95% of wingers with his 5v5 scoring rates.

 

[Flair Hay]

I just had a peek at the 8M contracts signed last year and all the players seemed to have few seasons in the 60-80 points range prior to the signing

There were a couple of head scratchers like PLD and Meier (who was coming off back to back 30+ goal seasons and had one season of 76 points)

I'm a big Ehlers fan but he isn't worth 8M+ based on league-wide comps

His pts/season and pts/60 tell extremely different stories. Depends which we think is a more accurate reflection of this playet

 

[TS Quint]

There are a couple of guys that will just laugh at your opinion rather than refute it with facts. The irony is that they're the "evidence informed" crowd

Typical behavior, I wouldn't sweat it. It just means that they have nothing to objectively disprove you with

I'm just trying to figure out where people are getting their opinions from. The value of Ehlers isn't easy. He's a 63 point player/82gp in his career so far. This contract is for the down side of his career. What are the Jets actuality paying for here? How many games/year should we expect over the next 5,6,7,8 years? Are the playoffs going to get better or God forbid worse? I'm open to the discussion.

 

[Gil Fisher]

In what world is a #2 d man in the NHL worth that? Ask yourself now if a 2nd/3rd line winger protected from hard matchups is irreplaceable when Chibrikov was scoring on that line and Perfetti was scoring in the PP bumper spot?

He's not that good. Sorry. And will be worse into his 30s.

We have 3 good defensemen. That's a problem. Giving Pionk an anchor contract, while letting Ehlers or Connor go to make room for it, is criminal.

 

[LowLefty]

I disagree with you here. I can remember the debates on these boards when Tyler Myers had a $6 million cap hit on the 3rd pairing. Who signed for roughly the same as the UFA. Jets have weathered injuries to Samberg and to Ehlers. And still sit near the top of the league with this #2 d man that gets no love. Has been remarkably healthy. I think it's somewhat nuts that he is seen as separable from Samberg when he literally took the kid in as a pro. Does Samberg make him better? Much like De Melo made Morrissey better than Poolman.

Ehlers now there is some depth behind him. I hope he comes back but it's a big picture. The future of Connor is uncertain the future of Ehlers is uncertain. I'll wait to see how it plays out, but I suspect Pionk is valued very much behind closed doors. Ehlers too but we won't know where his heart is until this season plays itself out.

That's fine to disagree - no surprise considering the topic.
I just don't think Pionk is worth the money - like I said, he's OK.
What I do find is that he plays his best hockey when contracts are due.

 

[TS Quint]

I think I read 9 mil on in the context of another team paying him that on July 1, not us.

Because that's insane.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Ice time, points, all those stats

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yeah, honestly, I find it funny, you expect Ehlers' top end to be 61 points - and another poster calling him a "60 points winger". I find it lazy. It's all about usage. First time ever consistently playing PP1 and he is PPG. Actually, he was always PPG during his short stretches on PP1 as injury fill in.
With a rising cap, I will be very surprised to see him sign for less than $8m+.
I'll give you, he is injury prone and has been underwhelming in the playoffs.

He has scored 61, you don’t get to be considered a 70-80 pt player till you score 70-80 pts. No one gives credit for pace.
He was used poorly, then he was used poorly, but, he doesn’t get credit for points he has never got.
If he does it this season, by end of season he can be a 70-80 pt guy.

Connor isn’t a 100 pt guy because he is pacing for it..

 

[TS Quint]

Yeah, honestly, I find it funny, you expect Ehlers' top end to be 61 points - and another poster calling him a "60 points winger". I find it lazy. It's all about usage. First time ever consistently playing PP1 and he is PPG. Actually, he was always PPG during his short stretches on PP1 as injury fill in.
With a rising cap, I will be very surprised to see him sign for less than $8m+.
I'll give you, he is injury prone and has been underwhelming in the playoffs.

I can agree usage is part of it. Health is another part.

 

[TS Quint]

I'll do my best to not make this an essay.

His pts/60 is extremely good, easily 1st line level. Best on the team for I think 4 of last 6 years?

His potential production has been lowered over the years by:
-injuries
-3rd line 5v5 time
-2nd PP time

Arniel has fixed 1 of the above. And voila he is producing over a point a game.

His playoff struggles have to play into it too. That concern I get.

To me you want to pay guys for what they will do, not what they have done. Ehlers is looking like a 80 point guy in 3rd line ice time with top PP time. That to me is worth 9 mil??? But it's Ehlers and he's had injury and playoff struggles. And less raw production than 95% of wingers with his 5v5 scoring rates.

after 10 years of data, do you expect anything including injuries to get better or worse as he enters his 30s? Do you think Ariel will convince him to produce in the playoffs?

Do you think he will ever score 80 points in his career? History seems to say that isn't likely. I think it's almost expect he will mis at least 10 games a year. 82 games seems like it would be a complete shock.

 

[Flair Hay]

after 10 years of data, do you expect anything including injuries to get better or worse as he enters his 30s?

I think injuries are often a lot of luck, same with playoff performances.

I haven't and won't say that I know it will get better. The injuries looked to have before another recent setback.

But it does happen all the time in sports. Guys choke in the playoffs multiple times and don't break through until their 30's.

10 years of data says this is an elite winger with injury and playoff struggles. To me that's still a player worth betting on as a 30 year old.

Because that's insane.

They call it silly season for a reason.

 

[TS Quint]

I think injuries are often a lot of luck, same with playoff performances.

I haven't and won't say that I know it will get better. The injuries looked to have before another recent setback.

But it does happen all the time in sports. Guys choke in the playoffs multiple times and don't break through until their 30's.

10 years of data says this is an elite winger with injury and playoff struggles. To me that's still a player worth betting on as a 30 year old.


They call it silly season for a reason.

After 10 years of data there isn't much luck involved, playoffs or regular season. As you get older luck resides on the optimistic end. If you want luck bet on a 22 year old.

 

[10Ducky10]

Sell high.

 

[NA Hockey]

I'm just trying to figure out where people are getting their opinions from. The value of Ehlers isn't easy. He's a 63 point player/82gp in his career so far. This contract is for the down side of his career. What are the Jets actuality paying for here? How many games/year should we expect over the next 5,6,7,8 years? Are the playoffs going to get better or God forbid worse? I'm open to the discussion.

I was saying earlier that I think they will have to over pay ($9M) to get him to even think about staying. Anything in the $7-8M range and he will go elsewhere to get that money and be a top line/1st pp player. I believe he is done playing second fiddle and has decided to go somewhere else to get that opportunity as he will never get it in Winnipeg.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I was saying earlier that I think they will have to over pay ($9M) to get him to even think about staying. Anything in the $7-8M range and he will go elsewhere to get that money and be a top line/1st pp player. I believe he is done playing second fiddle and has decided to go somewhere else to get that opportunity as he will never get it in Winnipeg.

Then I wish the best for him. There is no room for him to play top fiddle on this team, but, he has done a lot for this team. Hope he gets all he wants.

 

[10Ducky10]

If he wants 9m a season, he is welcome to go somewhere else to get it.

 

[Flair Hay]

After 10 years of data there isn't much luck involved, playoffs or regular season. As you get older luck resides on the optimistic end. If you want luck bet on a 22 year old.

When it comes to injuries, there definitely is a lot more luck involved. Some guys just don't have the ability to stay healthy, I get that. I'm not sure Ehlers is in that bucket.

And playoffs isn't 10 years of data, it's basically 30 games for him, half of which was on his ELC. But I acknowledge it's a concern for sure. Even Joe Thornton made the finals once!

 

[TS Quint]

I was saying earlier that I think they will have to over pay ($9M) to get him to even think about staying. Anything in the $7-8M range and he will go elsewhere to get that money and be a top line/1st pp player. I believe he is done playing second fiddle and has decided to go somewhere else to get that opportunity as he will never get it in Winnipeg.

In that case, i wish him luck. I think he might be right for a season or two but in my opinion Perfetti will be better at near half the price overall.