Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Adam da bomb]

He's also routinely been outscored by his linemates in the playoffs so the second line excuse holds little sway for me.

In 2018 his linemates Laine and Stastny had 12 and 16 points respectively (he had 7 assists and zero goals).

In 2019 Laine had 4 points and Little 3 vs. Ehlers goose egg.

2020 was the first time he outscored his linemates but still only put up 2 goals total.

2021 and 2024 he tied his linemates in points while 2023 is unfair to judge as he only got in one game after injuries.

Everyone says he needs to be on line 2 to drive it but that hasn't at all happened on the postseason. He's at best equaled his linemates performance, but has mostly been outperformed by them.

Did you edit your post as I saw I was tagged in notification, but, not in post.

 

[surixon]

Did you edit your post as I saw I was tagged in notification, but, not in post.

Yeah, I edited because I accidently included something you quoted that I hadn't intended to respond to. Sorry about that.

 

[Whileee]

Over the past 7 regular seasons at 5v5:

Connor:
511 games
144 goals
73 primary assists
266 points
1.13 goals per 60
1.7 primary points per 60

Ehlers:
451 games
113 goals
88 primary assists
249 points
1.10 goals per 60
1.96 primary points per 60

On the power play:

Connor: 2.03 goals per 60, 4.76 points per 60
Ehlers: 1.69 goals per 60, 4.51 points per 60

In summary, during the regular season Ehlers has been more productive at 5v5 in terms of primary points, and scores goals at almost the same rate as Connor at 5v5. Connor has an edge in PP productivity. But it's notable that Connor has a big edge in terms of the quality of linemates over the past several seasons.

Even is you're not confident in Ehlers' playoff contributions, he's been a key contributor to the Jets getting into the playoffs over the past several seasons, and I think that has considerable value.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Over the past 7 regular seasons at 5v5:

Connor:
511 games
144 goals
73 primary assists
266 points
1.13 goals per 60
1.7 primary points per 60

Ehlers:
451 games
113 goals
88 primary assists
249 points
1.10 goals per 60
1.96 primary points per 60

On the power play:

Connor: 2.03 goals per 60, 4.76 points per 60
Ehlers: 1.69 goals per 60, 4.51 points per 60

In summary, during the regular season Ehlers has been more productive at 5v5 in terms of primary points, and scores goals at almost the same rate as Connor at 5v5. Connor has an edge in PP productivity. But it's notable that Connor has a big edge in terms of the quality of linemates over the past several seasons.

Even is you're not confident in Ehlers' playoff contributions, he's been a key contributor to the Jets getting into the playoffs over the past several seasons, and I think that has considerable value.

Ehlers is great. We should keep them both. If we can't, probably hope to get into the playoffs without Ehlers for an improved performance in playoffs.

 

[surixon]

Over the past 7 regular seasons at 5v5:

Connor:
511 games
144 goals
73 primary assists
266 points
1.13 goals per 60
1.7 primary points per 60

Ehlers:
451 games
113 goals
88 primary assists
249 points
1.10 goals per 60
1.96 primary points per 60

On the power play:

Connor: 2.03 goals per 60, 4.76 points per 60
Ehlers: 1.69 goals per 60, 4.51 points per 60

In summary, during the regular season Ehlers has been more productive at 5v5 in terms of primary points, and scores goals at almost the same rate as Connor at 5v5. Connor has an edge in PP productivity. But it's notable that Connor has a big edge in terms of the quality of linemates over the past several seasons.

Even is you're not confident in Ehlers' playoff contributions, he's been a key contributor to the Jets getting into the playoffs over the past several seasons, and I think that has considerable value.

The question I keep coming back to is how are each going to age as we would be signing both for thr back 9 of their careers.

Ehlers apart from his playoff struggles has injury concerns. Both of which KC doesn't have. I'd also argue Ehlers is likely to age worse then KC as imo he's much more dependent on his skating then KC is to produce so loosing a step will impact him more.

I guess it ultimately depends on the value. If you can get him at 5 years for 7 million then great, but I want nothing to do with an 8 year deal at around $8 million.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So Ehlers was hurt for all 37 playoff games he has played ? I realize he has been mostly 2nd line and 2nd PP but i still think we need more from him come playoffs. I like Ehlers don't get me wrong but if we re-sign him its probably in the 7 to 8 million a year range and i think we need more from him in the playoffs.

I don't think anyone disagrees that we need more from him in the PO. But in looking at his PO record, context matters.

 

[Buffdog]

I don't think anyone disagrees that we need more from him in the PO. But in looking at his PO record, context matters.

Context matters when looking at anything

But specifically, what context are you referring to?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I really hope one season doesn't decide that.

For all of the Connor vs. Ehlers talk there is really no comparison between the two.

Connor is more durable, scores more, racks up more points, and is more effective in the playoffs.

Outside a weird outlier in the back half of the season before last, Connor is a machine. He's not without his flaws, and we know what they are, but for a guy who is paid to produce he rarely disappoints. If you're investing in a player, do you select the model of consistency that plays practically every game every year, or the guy who has really good narrow stats but is oft injured, goes into long slumps, and disappears in the playoffs?

If you're picking Ehlers, you're showing your bias (which is fine).

Connor was drafted 1 year after Ehlers. He has played 74 fewer games. Not clear that he is more durable though he does avoid contact more. Yes, he scores more - in more minutes with the best linemates and PP1 time. He is also worse defensively. He is less effective in the regular season. Not sure how much more effective he is in the PO. He has certainly scored more but effectiveness is more than that. I will concede more effective, but by how much?

If you're picking Connor, you're showing your bias (which is fine, I guess).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He's also routinely been outscored by his linemates in the playoffs so the second line excuse holds little sway for me.

In 2018 his linemates Laine and Stastny had 12 and 16 points respectively (he had 7 assists and zero goals).

In 2019 Laine had 4 points and Little 3 vs. Ehlers goose egg.

2020 was the first time he outscored his linemates but still only put up 2 goals total.

2021 and 2024 he tied his linemates in points while 2023 is unfair to judge as he only got in one game after injuries.

Everyone says he needs to be on line 2 to drive it but that hasn't at all happened on the postseason. He's at best equaled his linemates performance, but has mostly been outperformed by them.

Yup. He hasn't been good enough in the PO. No disputing that.

 

[jetsforever]

Has there been any info on Chevy working on an extension? Bit risky to start the season without one

 

[surixon]

Has there been any info on Chevy working on an extension? Bit risky to start the season without one

None, but there was none on Helle and Scheifele last year either so who really knows.

 

[JetsFan815]

Some talk about Ehlers' contract situation:

Ehlers | 24.09.16 | Winnipeg Jets

Nikolaj Ehlers on earning a berth at the Olympics and the upcoming season.

www.nhl.com

Ehlers hinting he is willing to re-sign but it might be the organization that is reluctant. Said "there's a reason I've been here 9 years" and that "it's not just my decision but also the organization". Said the situation is the same as exit meetings at the end of last season. The vibe I got was not much progress has been made on that end.

 

[WaveRaven]

You know the Jets want to sign him they're not going let him go for nothing. He'd be gone if they thought they couldn't sign him. I bet it gets worked out.

 

[KingBogo]

Some talk about Ehlers' contract situation:

Ehlers | 24.09.16 | Winnipeg Jets

Nikolaj Ehlers on earning a berth at the Olympics and the upcoming season.

www.nhl.com

Ehlers hinting he is willing to re-sign but it might be the organization that is reluctant. Said "there's a reason I've been here 9 years" and that "it's not just my decision but also the organization". Said the situation is the same as exit meetings at the end of last season. The vibe I got was not much progress has been made on that end.

Yeah it was hard to get a read off that interview. With Schiefele and Helly last season, talks really seemed to pick up during camp so hopefully the same thing happens with Ehlers.

 

[voyageur]

You know the Jets want to sign him they're not going let him go for nothing. He'd be gone if they thought they couldn't sign him. I bet it gets worked out.

With public knowledge of hernias, there may be some hesitation to sign Ehlers long term. The Jets went last year with De Melo going to the wire, and there was never any talk of trading him, because he was a valuable player. And there was probably positive feedback from the player during negotiations/meetings. The Jets may not have had an offer 1-1 on Ehlers that made sense, which could change. I don't think Chevy's mandate is to trade players in the last years of their contracts, unless they expressly want to leave. It's an issue with multiple players this season. I think the season should have some determination on what some these players are worth , going forward. Playoffs too.

 

[WolfHouse]

Yup. He hasn't been good enough in the PO. No disputing that.

Are we talking about Scheifele or Ehlers.

 

[Jets]

Are we talking about Scheifele or Ehlers.

yes.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Are we talking about Scheifele or Ehlers.

Ehlers

Scheifele has been pretty good in the PO. A rare Jet. 6 points in 5 games this year.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Ehlers

Scheifele has been pretty good in the PO. A rare Jet. 6 points in 5 games this year.

And a -6 that is even more damning given those point totals.

 

[Bigfish]

Delete

 

[Buffdog]

And a -6 that is even more damning given those point totals.

Part of that can be pinned on Helle's less than stellar performance and usage

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

And a -6 that is even more damning given those point totals.

Not really. First, it is +/- so ..... Second, it is in the context of the whole team's play.

Not trying to excuse Scheifele's PO performance, but he is not the problem there. Best of a bad lot.

 

[ekotyluk]

Funny how the whole team is always excused for a pathetic playoff effort except for Ehlers.