Player Discussion: Ehlers

[DRW204]

So a Copp-PLD-Ehlers line it is!

Copp-Stasnty-Ehlers was V strong last year. likely our best line?

think they had something like an 80% GF share....likely unsustainable to be out-scoring at that rate. however, they were over or close to 60% in controlling shots/chances (not surprised and more-sustainable).

think copp will be back w/ lowry. 1 of stastny or PLD on the wing. I really do not want CSW, think Connor-Scheifele-Ehlers would be great (they got a bit of burn last year and performed well). Id be willing to give PLD a top-line LW look too.... if he is not productive next to Scheifele+Ehlers, he might be a lemon lol.

 

[Whileee]

PLD had a lot of success with Ehlers, either with Stastny or Connor on the line...

Data below are 5v5 (score and venue adjusted), from Evolving Hockey.

 

[surixon]

PLD had a lot of success with Ehlers, either with Stastny or Connor on the line...

Data below are 5v5 (score and venue adjusted), from Evolving Hockey.


View attachment 462409

Yeah, I think we all focus a bit too much on his slump down the stretch. Prior to that slump he was pacing 55 points while helping push possession.

 

[LowLefty]

it's weird that segments of Jets fans still think Ehlers is no bueno or is a product of maurice

wish we could replicate this guy on every line tbh

since 18-19 top TOI descending down for Fwds

like with any "with vs without" stats other factors/variables need to be taken into consideration (ie: Fwd replacing ehlers with the specific teammate). but i think the stats bear out what most people who pay attention to Jets games see

Ehlers w/	Goals For	Goals Against	GF% w/ Ehlers	GF% w/out Ehlers	CF% w/ Ehlers	CF% w/out Ehlers	xGF% w/ Ehlers	xGF% w/out Ehlers
Blake Wheeler	47	37	55.95	41.01	52.69	47.22	49.91	43.44
Mark Scheifele	48	33	59.26	47.62	52.01	46.83	47.68	44.13
Kyle Connor	29	26	52.73	47.03	52.44	47.6	49.19	42.71
Jack Roslovic	20	16	55.56	48.61	54.34	49.94	48.15	45.69
Andrew Copp	19	10	65.52	48.31	56.4	49.18	51.16	46.95
Patrik Laine	16	13	55.17	47.47	47.91	45.78	45.38	42.18
Bryan Little	12	13	48	42.59	56.09	44.99	54.76	40.88
Pierre-Luc Dubois	10	7	58.82	47.37	53.2	44.51	53.53	39.97
Paul Stastny	14	4	77.78	44.12	54.63	47.49	57.28	45.8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Is there really a segment of this fan base that feel Ehlers is no good?
If it's there, it is tiny

 

[Bob E]

PLD had a lot of success with Ehlers, either with Stastny or Connor on the line...

Data below are 5v5 (score and venue adjusted), from Evolving Hockey.


View attachment 462409

Did Copp play with PLD and Ehlers much?

 

[Bob E]

Copp-Stasnty-Ehlers was V strong last year. likely our best line?

think they had something like an 80% GF share....likely unsustainable to be out-scoring at that rate. however, they were over or close to 60% in controlling shots/chances (not surprised and more-sustainable).

think copp will be back w/ lowry. 1 of stastny or PLD on the wing. I really do not want CSW, think Connor-Scheifele-Ehlers would be great (they got a bit of burn last year and performed well). Id be willing to give PLD a top-line LW look too.... if he is not productive next to Scheifele+Ehlers, he might be a lemon lol.

Yeah, I know Stastny did well with Copp and Ehlers, I was trying to move on from Stastny as he is a short term player. Though I suppose they all could be for one reason or another.

 

[DRW204]

Yeah, I know Stastny did well with Copp and Ehlers, I was trying to move on from Stastny as he is a short term player. Though I suppose they all could be for one reason or another.

Copp might very well be a short term player too

 

[surixon]

Did Copp play with PLD and Ehlers much?

They only played 8 minutes as a trio so not nearly enough to read anything into it.

 

[Whileee]

Did Copp play with PLD and Ehlers much?

Nope. Copp-Stastny-PLD had about 17 minutes, and Copp-PLD-Perreault had about 23 minutes. Both had meh 4esults, but small sample size.

 

[DRW204]

__________________________________________________

Good post, but you have to factor in the facts here that Marner gets way more ice time, most of his points are assists ( like Wheeler) and he's feeding Mathews, who is a goal scoring machine.

Give Ehlers the same ice time, and we'll take a look. You also have to recognize Ehlers has the better shot, and Marner is more of a playmaker, so their different types of players. Goal scorers are coveted in the NHL tho. I think I'd rather have Ehlers straight up.

Not saying Ehlers is as good or worse than Marner, but Ehlers' play-making is quite underrated imo. ppl pigen-hole him as merely just some skating menace out there, which i guess partially is not incorrect b/c skating/puck-handling at high-speed is a definite strength. However, looking at the objective on-ice measures or stats, he rates strongly as a play-maker.

Ehlers ranked near top-percentile in shot-contributions, high-danger assists, shot-assists and passing. he's been right up there some years with Wheeler in terms of shot-assist rates, who is usually ranked atop of the league as far playmaking goes (looking at 17-18 and 19-20 stats).

i think a lot of the "juniors" mentality is gone. young(er) ehlers would skate into the Ozone and basically just skate around not making a pass or dangerous play.....some of this could be chalked up to inexperience, perhaps "low offensive-iq," or playing with inadequate linemates (ie: thorburn early in his career). But imo you seldom see this anymore. he's getting shots on net or making plays much quicker, imo.

 

[jetsforever]

Copp-Stasnty-Ehlers was V strong last year. likely our best line?

think they had something like an 80% GF share....likely unsustainable to be out-scoring at that rate. however, they were over or close to 60% in controlling shots/chances (not surprised and more-sustainable).

think copp will be back w/ lowry. 1 of stastny or PLD on the wing. I really do not want CSW, think Connor-Scheifele-Ehlers would be great (they got a bit of burn last year and performed well). Id be willing to give PLD a top-line LW look too.... if he is not productive next to Scheifele+Ehlers, he might be a lemon lol.

CSE was awesome for a few games but I don't think Copp is good enough to keep that up for too long.

 

[jetsforever]

Is there really a segment of this fan base that feel Ehlers is no good?
If it's there, it is tiny

I think a good chunk of people think Connor is better but most at least acknowledge that Ehlers is good.

 

[DRW204]

CSE was awesome for a few games but I don't think Copp is good enough to keep that up for too long.

copp hasn't really ever been given an extended look in the top-6 i think. he got a couple weeks in 17-18 centering laine & ehlers before the stastny acquisition, and the line performed well.

copp will always be substance-over-style. he has a nice shot but really isn't toolsy offensively. but somehow the top-6 lines produced strongly with him on it, and his individual production was not bad either.

 

[Snot Rocket]

I think a good chunk of people think Connor is better but most at least acknowledge that Ehlers is good.

Very different players their similarities end with speed... IMO hard to compare...that said any team would kill to have either player and we are fortunate enough to have both of them.
I actually would prefer Ehlers.

 

[surixon]

Not saying Ehlers is as good or worse than Marner, but Ehlers' play-making is quite underrated imo. ppl pigen-hole him as merely just some skating menace out there, which i guess partially is not incorrect b/c skating/puck-handling at high-speed is a definite strength. However, looking at the objective on-ice measures or stats, he rates strongly as a play-maker.

Ehlers ranked near top-percentile in shot-contributions, high-danger assists, shot-assists and passing. he's been right up there some years with Wheeler in terms of shot-assist rates, who is usually ranked atop of the league as far playmaking goes (looking at 17-18 and 19-20 stats).

i think a lot of the "juniors" mentality is gone. young(er) ehlers would skate into the Ozone and basically just skate around not making a pass or dangerous play.....some of this could be chalked up to inexperience, perhaps "low offensive-iq," or playing with inadequate linemates (ie: thorburn early in his career). But imo you seldom see this anymore. he's getting shots on net or making plays much quicker, imo.

He is dangerous at top speed either as a playmaker or a shooter. It's when the play slows down that I find he has more difficulty finding those passing lanes.

 

[DRW204]

He is dangerous at top speed either as a playmaker or a shooter. It's when the play slows down that I find he has more difficulty finding those passing lanes.

think this could be said for most players. movement (either via player or puck) = more opportunity for pass or shooting lanes. when plays stagnate those lanes close as defenses don't scramble as much. we saw this a bit w/ wheeler on the pp at times (not trying to shit on him b/c he is v good on the pp), but the play would just die b/c he'd stickhandling by himself on the right dot with little to no player or puck movement

 

[surixon]

think this could be said for most players. movement (either via player or puck) = more opportunity for pass or shooting lanes. when plays stagnate those lanes close as defenses don't scramble as much. we saw this a bit w/ wheeler on the pp at times (not trying to shit on him b/c he is v good on the pp), but the play would just die b/c he'd stickhandling by himself on the right dot with little to no player or puck movement

No doubt, some players though are very good at slowing things down. Thornton was a king at it in his prime.

 

[DRW204]

No doubt, some players though are at slowing things down. Thornton was a king at it in his prime.

thornton's are few and far between, and some guys need to do it b/c of necessity (ie: lack of speed). also his prime was 15 years ago, game is even faster now.

datsyuk could also slow the game down, & created movement with his stick-handling. i've seen ehlers do the same, not to the extent of Datsyuk of course. P. Kane is similar.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Very different players their similarities end with speed... IMO hard to compare...that said any team would kill to have either player and we are fortunate enough to have both of them.
I actually would prefer Ehlers.

Both are excellent players in many ways and both make major contributions to team success. If I had to pick just one it's Ehlers without blinking -- but KC outside of his elite finishing and hands is no slouch and can still improve, especially if/when he lines up alongside a potentially elite playmaker like Perfetti. Having both locked up longterm is fantastic, and makes me wonder a bit at those team evaluations that ding the Jets for not having a McDavid or Kuch up front. There's something to be said of having a spread of top-end talent, IMO, especially when it's optimized.

Back to Ehlers -- he's the team's top skater at this point, and should be a lock for the 1st line and increased PP minutes, whether that's on PP1 or 2. I don't really see any area now beyond org/ coach-ly loyalty where Wheeler offers more as the 1RW besides the cycle -- but then with Ehlers you maybe don't need the cycle to the same degree, as he adds an extra measure of threat off the rush and as a sniper.

So will Ehlers finally get the minutes to match the value he brings? We'll see, I guess. Will he make good on them? I'd bet on it.

 

[Oilpeg]

Both are excellent players in many ways and both make major contributions to team success. If I had to pick just one it's Ehlers without blinking -- but KC outside of his elite finishing and hands is no slouch and can still improve, especially if/when he lines up alongside a potentially elite playmaker like Perfetti. Having both locked up longterm is fantastic, and makes me wonder a bit at those team evaluations that ding the Jets for not having a McDavid or Kuch up front. There's something to be said of having a spread of top-end talent, IMO, especially when it's optimized.

Back to Ehlers -- he's the team's top skater at this point, and should be a lock for the 1st line and increased PP minutes, whether that's on PP1 or 2. I don't really see any area now beyond org/ coach-ly loyalty where Wheeler offers more as the 1RW besides the cycle -- but then with Ehlers you maybe don't need the cycle to the same degree, as he adds an extra measure of threat off the rush and as a sniper.

So will Ehlers finally get the minutes to match the value he brings? We'll see, I guess. Will he make good on them? I'd bet on it.

You never know though...he might have the perfect minutes and utilization that optimizes his abilities. More minutes could mean less production. He might excel on PP2 because it's often against PK2 or even PK3. Sometimes a player is used properly and it maximizes their output. I'd hate for Ehlers to get more minutes and fail as it would erode his confidence and he'd then struggle if demoted. This, obviously is a theory with no basis when it comes to Ehlers because he hasn't been given more minutes, it's just something to keep in mind.

 

[DRW204]

If it's anything of the effect in shots/chances/goals for when he's paired with scheifele at 5v5 hockey then there's not much to worry about... Erode his confidence? Oh God.

You never know though...he might have the perfect minutes and utilization that optimizes his abilities. More minutes could mean less production. He might excel on PP2 because it's often against PK2 or even PK3. Sometimes a player is used properly and it maximizes their output. I'd hate for Ehlers to get more minutes and fail as it would erode his confidence and he'd then struggle if demoted. This, obviously is a theory with no basis when it comes to Ehlers because he hasn't been given more minutes, it's just something to keep in mind.

 

[Bob E]

Copp might very well be a short term player too

Right. They need a player like Copp, but might only be able to pay $4M AAV without a significant change elsewhere.

Copp would leave in FA if Jets only offered $4M.

 

[GNP]

Not saying Ehlers is as good or worse than Marner, but Ehlers' play-making is quite underrated imo. ppl pigen-hole him as merely just some skating menace out there, which i guess partially is not incorrect b/c skating/puck-handling at high-speed is a definite strength. However, looking at the objective on-ice measures or stats, he rates strongly as a play-maker.

Ehlers ranked near top-percentile in shot-contributions, high-danger assists, shot-assists and passing. he's been right up there some years with Wheeler in terms of shot-assist rates, who is usually ranked atop of the league as far playmaking goes (looking at 17-18 and 19-20 stats).

i think a lot of the "juniors" mentality is gone. young(er) ehlers would skate into the Ozone and basically just skate around not making a pass or dangerous play.....some of this could be chalked up to inexperience, perhaps "low offensive-iq," or playing with inadequate linemates (ie: thorburn early in his career). But imo you seldom see this anymore. he's getting shots on net or making plays much quicker, imo.

Great post, and I totally agree with it's contents. I also think Ehlers is incorrectly used by Maurice. He "definitely" should be used on Power Play # 1, and also get more ice time than Wheeler, or Connor for that matter, because Ehlers can do "it all." Speed to burn - great shot as well.

Ehlers is even great on the point as a defenseman on the power play, as his shot is underrated.

 

[Benjamin Doveridge]

Yeah, I think we all focus a bit too much on his slump down the stretch. Prior to that slump he was pacing 55 points while helping push possession.

You can’t pick the best part of the season and say that is the real player. You have to take the whole season into account and PLD sucked. A few yrs ago there was a 2 week period when Perreault led the entire league in points or we can take Copp’s first 4 weeks from last season and say he is more than a point a game player. Great that PLD had flashes of brilliance. He better put together some consistency this year.

 

[surixon]

You can’t pick the best part of the season and say that is the real player. You have to take the whole season into account and PLD sucked. A few yrs ago there was a 2 week period when Perreault led the entire league in points or we can take Copp’s first 4 weeks from last season and say he is more than a point a game player. Great that PLD had flashes of brilliance. He better put together some consistency this year.

I don't believe I've ever called his season last year good as a whole. He knows it wasn't good enough as do most fans. The point was that he showed signs that he could play well with some of our players and showed signs he could be what we want him to be.