ECSF: Toronto Maple Leafs (A2) vs. Florida Panthers (WC2) ( Florida Leads 3-1 )

[Divine]

Still makes genuinely no sense how this isn’t a penalty?





He takes 4 strides and rams him into the boards, so that’s charging or boarding right there.

Also, the Leafs are on a delayed penalty so as soon as they get possession of the puck the whistle will be blown. No one is going to be eligible to be hit in those circumstances. So of course, Gudas waits until the referee blows the whistles and charges/boards a guy ineligible to be hit without penalty.

 

[Summer Rose]

Still makes genuinely no sense how this isn’t a penalty?





He takes 4 strides and rams him into the boards, so that’s charging or boarding right there.

Also, the Leafs are on a delayed penalty so as soon as they get possession of the puck the whistle will be blown. No one is going to be eligible to be hit in those instances. So of course, Gudas waits until the referee blows the whistles and charges/boards a guy indelible to be hit without penalty.

I'd have called it a penalty.

 

[pnep]

1. historical rate of returning from a 3-1 series deficit and winning series?
- first, in total
- then, separated out by series that started 3-0 compared to those that didn't.

start 1-3: 334 Games
and res. 4-3: 32 Games
Series W% = 9.58 %



start 0-3 then 1-3: 76 Games
and res. 4-3: 4 Games
Series W% = 5.26 %

start not 0-3 then 1-3: 258 Games (334 - 76)
and res. 4-3: 28 Games (32 - 4)
Series W% = 10.85 %

 

[Community]

Charging, boarding and roughing. Sure it wasn't a high-stick also?

I never said it was all three. I've been very clear in my opinion that it is an obvious minor penalty (no worse).

Interference and holding can be interchangeable in a lot of circumstances.

Cross checking and high sticking have some overlap.

Roughing/boarding have overlap.

 

[OKR]

You can argue which one was luckier, I really don’t care.

Also, to your other point that neither team generated any good scoring chances. Did you even watch the game?

The Leafs had a Tavares breakaway, a 3 on 1, Tavares 1 on 1 with the goaltender on the PP, Bunting shooting from the slot wide open, etc. Bob played unbelievable and still lost. Can he play like that every game? We’ll see.

You literally listed a 3 on 1 that didn’t even lead to a shot on goal as good scoring chance, you’re very easily impressed in guess. Both teams had less shots on goal than in average playoff game. Both teams went 10 minutes with 0 SOG. Bobrovski had to make whopping 23 saves and none of them was more than a routine save and that was unbelievable to you?

 

[pnep]

2. Historical likelihood of:
- winning game 4 when down 3-0
- winning game 5 when the above happened
- winning game 6 when both of the above happened
- winning game 7 when all of the above happened

when 0-3:

	W	L	W %
game 4	77​	128​	37.56 %​
game 5	22​	54​	28.95 %​
game 6	9​	13​	40.91%​
game 7	4​	5​	44.44 %​

incl. current PO

 

[Community]

when 0-3:

	W	L	W %
game 4	76​	125​	37.81 %​
game 5	22​	54​	28.95 %​
game 6	9​	13​	40.91%​
game 7	4​	5​	44.44 %​

Very interesting stats!

I'm assuming the lower win percentage in game 5 is due to a combination of more games on the road than away (most teams down 3-0 aren't the higher seeds) and a pushback from thr opposing team to end the series quickly. Makes sense the winning percentage creeps up after that with momentum starting to swing a bit. Still crazy that after winning 3 in a row and forcing game #7 that the other teams won more often (although it's only 1 game difference).

Thanks for the info!

 

[LightningStrikes]

Charging, boarding and roughing. Sure it wasn't a high-stick also?

Beard too long too!

 

[Divine]

You literally listed a 3 on 1 that didn’t even lead to a shot on goal as good scoring chance, you’re very easily impressed in guess. Both teams had less shots on goal than in average playoff game. Both teams went 10 minutes with 0 SOG. Bobrovski had to make whopping 23 saves and none of them was more than a routine save and that was unbelievable to you?

You have high expectations of a routine save. He literally saved a Tavares breakaway.

You must think Florida’s goal was a routine save then too. What isn’t a routine save to you?

 

[Leonardo87]

With all the blow out games around the league in these playoffs, this series has been very close in the goal differential. Credit to defense and goaltending?

 

[EverTheCynic]

You have high expectations of a routine save. He literally saved a Tavares breakaway.

Tavares is 1 for 10 in shootouts over the past 5 years. A homeless man chasing a $1 bill across the ice could stop a Tavares breakaway.

 

[Yall are crazy]

I've never heard such vitriol about Mitch Marner in local media, WOW.

He might actually get dealt. Matthews hearing it, too. Tavares has long been known as a declining asset and we just accept he's not very good anymore.

I could actually see a total nuclear situation if they can't get this series to 7 or move on.

So you clearly weren't here for 2021 where he was harassed and had a smear campaign on him for 6 months straight

 

[OKR]

You have high expectations of a routine save. He literally saved a Tavares breakaway.

You must think Florida’s goal was a routine save then too. What isn’t a routine save to you?

No, goals are not routine saves? They’re the opposite of saves…

You’re talking like Bobrovski had to make multiple gamesavers, when in fact he did the bare minumun expected from a average NHL goalie, as did Woll. Breakaway’s get saved basically every game.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Tavares is 1 for 10 in shootouts over the past 5 years. A homeless man chasing a $1 bill across the ice could stop a Tavares breakaway.

 

[Divine]

No, goals are not routine saves? They’re the opposite of saves…

You’re talking like Bobrovski had to make multiple gamesavers, when in fact he did the bare minumun expected from a average NHL goalie, as did Woll. Breakaway’s get saved basically every game.

Shots also get saved every game. Some shots go in, some do not. The Florida goal that was scored was the same play Bob saved in the same game (and multiple others) by the Leafs.

Your argument seems to be everything is a routine save unless it goes in.

If Marner or Nylander’s goal doesn’t go in, it’s a routine save. If it goes in, it’s a clear goal. How does that make sense?

Like I asked prior, that you ignored, what is not a routine save to you?

 

[Just Rude]

...that's BS, period...it was a minor penalty at most...Gudas has done far worse things to his own team in practice...

Sure he has.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Breakaway’s get saved basically every game.

...and they're usually GREAT SAVES that do it...tryy being a goalie for a game or two, it isn't as easy as it looks...

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

reinhart is on the ice!!! he is not in the scrum!

anyway pal, good luck to you.

Acciari and McCabe are engaged with two Panthers. Marner and Rielly are behind the net going away. Bennett comes in as third Panther blindside . Then everyone else joins in. You can try to spin that any way you wish, it's all there to see.

 

[OKR]

Shots also get saved every game. Some shots go in, some do not.

Your argument seems to be everything is a routine save unless it goes in.

If Marner or Nylander’s goal doesn’t go in, it’s a routine save. If it goes in, it’s a goal. How does that make sense?

Like I asked prior, that you ignored, what is not a routine save to you?

How is that my argument? There is absolutely nothing i said that would even remotely point to that. You were the one to claim Bobrovski played ”unbelieveable” when he literally had to make less saves than in any game thus far outside of the game 3 when he had to make one less, and none of them was him robbing the shooter or something even remotely like that.

 

[OKR]

...and they're usually GREAT SAVES that do it...tryy being a goalie for a game or two, it isn't as easy as it looks...

They’re not all the same, and obviously they would be great save for me, but i’m not a top 60 goalie in the world like NHL goalies are.

 

[thusk]

ok, sure. there could be the pressure to not be embarrassed. 2 teams have blown 3-0 leads in the last decade or so though so it's not as unthinkable as it sounded in 2010. but i'll give that to you.

Since 2010, 42 of 44 whos leaf 3-0 who won it, atill less than 5% and still embarashing and florida would probably leaving toronto with leafs reputation of chocking under pressure

Ps Over 80% of those series ended in 4 or 5

3 goes in 7 game and Vancouver is the only team who won game 7 after blow a 3-0 lead

 

[AvroArrow]

...that's BS, period...it was a minor penalty at most...Gudas has done far worse things to his own team in practice...

It's a minor penalty at the very minimum, not at most.

Seems you're unaware that you can't hit guys after the whistle has clearly blown. Also you can't take that many strides into a hit either, it's called charging.

If that is true, he's an even bigger idiot than I originally thought

It's almost like teams try to play cleaner and change up their strategies game to game....

What a novel idea right??!?!

Give Sam Bennett the Lady Byng

 

[jcs0218]

The Panthers are going to blow a 3-0 lead.

They have been a streaky team all season. They won 6 in a row these playoffs, with many wins being by the skin of their teeth.

Now they are due for a losing streak.

I don't mean to offend anyone, but the Panthers haven't convinced me yet that they are an elite team.

I don't believe they are an elite team that is going to go into games 5, 6, or 7, and say: "We refuse to allow Toronto to make a fool of us by coming back from 0-3. We are going to finish them".

Combined with all of this is the fact that Toronto's stars are starting to wake up and will be very hard to stop these next 3 games.

I think Toronto wins this series.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Agree about leafs coming back but I wouldn't put it past them messing it up once they do. This could get crazy folks.

 

[Mandar]

The Panthers are going to blow a 3-0 lead.

They have been a streaky team all season. They won 6 in a row these playoffs, with many wins being by the skin of their teeth.

Now they are due for a losing streak.

I don't mean to offend anyone, but the Panthers haven't convinced me yet that they are an elite team.

I don't believe they are an elite team that is going to go into games 5, 6, or 7, and say: "We refuse to allow Toronto to make a fool of us by coming back from 0-3. We are going to finish them".

Combined with all of this is the fact that Toronto's stars are starting to wake up and will be very hard to stop these next 3 games.

I think Toronto wins this series.

care to wager?