ECSF: Toronto Maple Leafs (A2) vs. Florida Panthers (WC2) ( Florida Leads 3-1 )

[zeroG]

Bur Still a free shot who created all those battle after the game was over


But florida didn't had pressure vs boston... they had nothing to lose... all the pressure was on bruins shoulder with their historic seasin

They didn't had any pressure to start as underdog in that series

but If Toronto just win game 5... the pressure will raise drastically in Florida just to not blow a 3 game lead and finally lost it for... if the pressure step up, its where we can see florida starting making nervous mistake or bobrovsky start struggling...

ok, sure. there could be the pressure to not be embarrassed. 2 teams have blown 3-0 leads in the last decade or so though so it's not as unthinkable as it sounded in 2010. but i'll give that to you.

 

[seventieslord]

Think it just comes down to it being a lot less probable to win 4 in a row than 3.

Like if you look at a coin flip, to get 3 of the same in a row, that probability is 12.5%, but for 4 in a row it drops to 6.3%. Obviously its not that simple and there are thousands of factors, but yeah.

no, because once that first one has happened, the probability of the next three coin flips is the same as they would always be.

for example. you could end up at 1-3 four ways:

LLLW
LWLL
LLWL
WLLL

but one of those is still historically almost insurmountable, and the other three are surmounted nearly every season.

In fact, if I remember the actual historical rates of coming back to win, "just" being down 3-1, teams greatly outperform the raw coin flip probabilities, but if it's LLLW, teams greatly underperform it.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

um. no. absolutely not.

i don't really give a shit about this but let's accurately and objectively describe what happened. mccabe crosschecks reinhart to the ice and then he and accairi proceed to start mauling montour. at 12-13 seconds (screenshot below - 2 guys on montour, reino on ice, bennett still 6 feet away). there is no question.

i don't blame accairi and mccabe for going after montour to stick up for reilly but the hit was clean. it was in fact, perfect - montour separated reilly from the puck, which was exactly what he needed to do. if reilly thought it was dirty, why did he pop back up and go right after the puck?

what happened at the bottom of the dogpile after this started is another story but it started because mccabe and accairi jumped montour (after mccabe crosschecked reinhart).

FYI I watched it all in slow mo before I posted, so yes, it was 2 on 2 until Bennett came third man in blindside. The other Leaf players were proceeding behind the net and away.

I don't care about the officiating anymore. It's going to be wildly inconsistent both ways, that's just how it is nowadays.

All you can do is kill of the penalties you get and score on the powerplays you get.

Yes it is going to be inconsistent. You can't score on what you don't get for 2 games. You only get to practise the other part.

 

[izzy]

hold it, leafs fans are saying gudas on kampf should have been a penalty/suspension?

tf

 

[Ratsreign]

B's had a similar game plan. Ouffff




--------

I feel terrible for the people that pre-made their sweep memes.
Probably why they're in here with their panties in a knot.
Poor dorks.

I feel just as bad for Leafs fans who watched their team win a game, and still feel the need to cry about things. They apparently have their panties in a permanent knot.

 

[Community]

hold it, leafs fans are saying gudas on kampf should have been a penalty/suspension?

tf

Penalty 100%, no debate.

Suspension, absolutely not (no debate IMO).

 

[zeroG]

FYI I watched it all in slow mo before I posted, so yes, it was 2 on 2 until Bennett came third man in blindside. The other Leaf players were proceeding behind the net and away.

reinhart is on the ice!!! he is not in the scrum!

anyway pal, good luck to you.

 

[izzy]

Penalty 100%, no debate.

Suspension, absolutely not (no debate IMO).

whats the penalty?

 

[AcerComputer]

leafs were gifted a scoring chance that lead to a goal. for their sake, i hope that isn't necessary next game

for cats sake, i sure hope they just put it away

FLA played terrible. They didn't deserve to win.

 

[AvroArrow]

whats the penalty?

Hitting the shit out of a guy after the play was blown dead ? Also charging ?

 

[Peasy]

no, because once that first one has happened, the probability of the next three coin flips is the same as they would always be.

for example. you could end up at 1-3 four ways:

LLLW
LWLL
LLWL
WLLL

but one of those is still historically almost insurmountable, and the other three are surmounted nearly every season.

In fact, if I remember the actual historical rates of coming back to win, "just" being down 3-1, teams greatly outperform the raw coin flip probabilities, but if it's LLLW, teams greatly underperform it.

Its about 10% of teams if this source is accurate (NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-1), so its slightly under. But the 0-3 scenario is way below a standard 50/50 guessing right 4 times in a row.

And yes if you just simply look at the final 3 games after being down 3-1 in a vacuum, the probability will all be the same (cause you need 3/3 Ws for every situation), but if you look at it from the final 4 games, in one scenario you need to go 4/4 Ws while the other 3 just needs to go 3/4 Ws (which one is more likely to occur?). Just depends how you're looking at it.

 

[AvroArrow]

Penalty 100%, no debate.

Suspension, absolutely not (no debate IMO).

Intent to injure a guy after the whistle had already blown, given Gudas' history it can be suspension.

 

[AcerComputer]

The penalty occurred seconds before Kampf touched the puck and he clearly was skating like the play was still live.

It's still charging. You could also argue for boarding. The onus is on Gudas to let up.

Rule 42
Charging shall mean the actions of a player who, as a result of distance traveled, shall violently check an opponent in any manner. A “charge” may be the result of a check into the boards, into the goal frame or in open ice

 

[Community]

whats the penalty?

Charging is the most likely call. I've seen it called roughing before too.

From the rule book:
Charging - A minor or major penalty shall be imposed on a player who skates, jumps into or charges an opponent in any manner. Charging shall mean the actions of a player who, as a result of distance traveled, shall violently check an opponent in any manner. A “charge” may be the result of a check into the boards, into the goal frame or in open ice.

While there's no penalty for "late hit" its consistently given as a penalty under other penalty names. For example, if a hit was 5 seconds late and a totally clean hit, it'd still be a penalty (unsportsmanlike conduct or roughing most likely).

 

[seventieslord]

Its about 10% of teams if this source is accurate (NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-1), so its slightly under. But the 0-3 scenario is way below a standard 50/50 guessing right 4 times in a row.

And yes if you just simply look at the final 3 games after being down 3-1 in a vacuum, the probability will all be the same (cause you need 3/3 Ws for every situation), but if you look at it from the final 4 games, in one scenario you need to go 4/4 Ws while the other 3 just needs to go 3/4 Ws (which one is more likely to occur?). Just depends how you're looking at it.

you mean 3/3, I assume.

I agree the "probability" is the same, but it seems that in practice, the outcome has been less likely.

Thank you for pointing out that in normal 3-1 situations it's about 10% which is within the margin of error of 12.5%, so basically the three coin flips theory applies. I was mistaken to say it was about 18%.

Just waiting for numbers from pnep to see what the historical rates are now that we are where we are.

 

[Community]

Intent to injure a guy after the whistle had already blown, given Gudas' history it can be suspension.

Let's he honest, it's a relatively weak argument. Sure, you can put up an argument for it, but the more obvious call is a penalty.

If it was 1-2 seconds later, then we could talk about suspension.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

...the Gudas hit was a minor penalty...those asking for a suspension are absolutely homers looking for any excuse...

 

[The Expert]

It's still charging. You could also argue for boarding. The onus is on Gudas to let up.

Rule 42
Charging shall mean the actions of a player who, as a result of distance traveled, shall violently check an opponent in any manner. A “charge” may be the result of a check into the boards, into the goal frame or in open ice

Charging is the most likely call. I've seen it called roughing before too.

From the rule book:
Charging - A minor or major penalty shall be imposed on a player who skates, jumps into or charges an opponent in any manner. Charging shall mean the actions of a player who, as a result of distance traveled, shall violently check an opponent in any manner. A “charge” may be the result of a check into the boards, into the goal frame or in open ice.

While there's no penalty for "late hit" its consistently given as a penalty under other penalty names. For example, if a hit was 5 seconds late and a totally clean hit, it'd still be a penalty (unsportsmanlike conduct or roughing most likely).

Charging, boarding and roughing. Sure it wasn't a high-stick also?

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Charging, boarding and roughing. Sure it wasn't a high-stick also?

 

[Divine]

Other one was a shot on net trough traffic, other one was Bunting throwing the puck behind the net along the boards that hits the referee, bounces right to Nylander who hit’s a post with failed shot and then bounces off Bobrovskis back and goes in

One happens almost in every game, one basically never. Yeah, luck plays a part on both goals but they’re not ”equal” at all.

They’re both lucky bounces.

You can argue which one was luckier, I really don’t care.

Also, to your other point that neither team generated any good scoring chances. Did you even watch the game?

The Leafs had a Tavares breakaway, a 3 on 1, Tavares 1 on 1 with the goaltender on the PP, Bunting shooting from the slot wide open, etc. Bob played unbelievable and still lost. Can he play like that every game? We’ll see.

 

[0494]

If the Leafs can manage another win, I think the number of pitchforks will at least diminish.

 

[simon92]

DEFENSE! Fight for every puck! AWESOME commitment!
But can Leafs keep up the momentum? Yes, they can!
Leafs in 7.

 

[AvroArrow]

...the Gudas hit was a minor penalty...those asking for a suspension are absolutely homers looking for any excuse...

Those asking for a suspension are fans of a team who's had their players suspended for almost the exact same play and just want some consistency

 

[Summer Rose]

I would find it sensationally poetic if the Panthers won game 5 in overtime.

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

Those asking for a suspension are fans of a team who's had their players suspended for almost the exact same play and just want some consistency

...that's BS, period...it was a minor penalty at most...Gudas has done far worse things to his own team in practice...