ECSF: Toronto Maple Leafs (A2) vs. Florida Panthers (WC2) ( Florida Leads 3-1 )

[Strangle]

Yeah, 5 2min penalties vs 1 2min penalty.

Refs did all they could to help the Leafs win yet they still lost. If the other games get a bit more even refereeing, this will be pretty rough.

You’re the problem!

No one wants game management and ‘balanced’ infractions. There is no way the Leafs committed as many penalties as the panthers did last night. Why shouldn’t the power plays be in their favor?

 

[Drytoast]

If Nylander asks for anything close to what Tkachuk is making on his next contract the Leafs are better off getting rid of him. The difference in these two players is huge.

Mat is underpaid and exceeding his value. Kind of a common occurrence with no tax teams fella. Anywhere else and he's looking at 10-11. You done gone f***ed up trying to compare high tax markets to no tax markets thinking you had a point.

 

[Drytoast]

Lol

Who cares? They are havin fun with money to burn!

 

[The Management]

I still think the Leafs kryptonite is physicality. Take the body to them, and they turtle up. Nylander seems to just want to play pond hockey. He does not like to get physical at all, when there are times where he obviously should. I think the hits can take their toll on them as the series goes on. They arent soft by any means, just not as physical as the Bruins were.

This series is going to be won by Florida if they can stay out of the box, and just play their brand of hockey. Dont swap rush attacks with the Leafs, because that is playing into their style. Forecheck, finish your check, keep those sticks active, etc. To think that this would be cakewalk for the Leafs is just ridiculous bias.

I honestly believe this years Leafs team would have an easier time with last years Panthers team. Last year they were built for the regular season, more of a run and gun, transitional beast. This season, even while in a transition year, they are more built as a playoff team.

Interesting how we can come away with somewhat different perspectives.

Toronto isn't a rush team at all, not anymore, but I think they were baited into playing that style by a Florida club that seemed to want to rely on their speed and quick transitioning of the puck north-south. Florida seems to prefer a style of open, almost chaotic hockey, and that can give the opposing team fits when paired with their speed and aggressive forecheck.

Florida was definitely the more physical team, and the faster team, but Toronto didn't "turtle up" and didn't seem overwhelmed by the Panthers physical play. Toronto outshot them, stripped more pucks, stayed more disciplined, and put more pressure on offensively. Bobrovsky outplayed Samsonov, and Toronto's forwards couldn't find a way to finish on their scoring opportunities. Florida executed on their game plan and Toronto did not.

Credit to the Panthers, in that they are fun, fun team to watch. I imagine a Panthers / Devils series would be off the hook with all the speed. Tkachuk is also a beast.

 

[Laus723]

Who cares? They are havin fun with money to burn!

I don’t, they’re having fun and repping the Cats. Which is awesome.

 

[Conflicted Habs fan]

sweep

 

[ProjectPanthers]

Leafs were not more disciplined they simply didn't get called for penalties.

Tkachuk drew like 4 alone last night that they completely ignored. Multiple Leafs were hooking him throughout the night

Panthers are not very disciplined but neither were the Leafs last night, things just went their way with the officiating.

 

[Rob Brown]

Who cares? They are havin fun with money to burn!

The whole ‘I live in Toronto and hate the Leafs but love the Jays’ shtick is just so lame.

 

[Drytoast]

The whole ‘I live in Toronto and hate the Leafs but love the Jays’ shtick is just so lame.

It's possible he's from Florida ya know...

Or it's possible he owns season tickets to a team he hates? LOL. Either way he's paid a hell of a lot of money to sit in those seats so he can wear whatever he wants to wear.

That Florida jersey his daughter is wearing looks like someone threw up on a shirt and called it the day. lol

I don’t, they’re having fun and repping the Cats. Which is awesome.

Maybe we should pull a Florida and ban them from purchasing future tickets?

 

[karhukissa]

Make no mistake, Barkov is a passenger on the Tkachuck train in Florida, unbelievable how overrated Barkov is.

Hockey and other NA sports and broadcasts are pretty much 100% about the entertainment and show aspect, not about the game analysis and deep dive to what's actually happening on the ice. That's why i'll give you a pass.

 

[pb1300]

Interesting how we can come away with somewhat different perspectives.

Toronto isn't a rush team at all, not anymore, but I think they were baited into playing that style by a Florida club that seemed to want to rely on their speed and quick transitioning of the puck north-south. Florida seems to prefer a style of open, almost chaotic hockey, and that can give the opposing team fits when paired with their speed and aggressive forecheck.

Florida was definitely the more physical team, and the faster team, but Toronto didn't "turtle up" and didn't seem overwhelmed by the Panthers physical play. Toronto outshot them, stripped more pucks, stayed more disciplined, and put more pressure on offensively. Bobrovsky outplayed Samsonov, and Toronto's forwards couldn't find a way to finish on their scoring opportunities. Florida executed on their game plan and Toronto did not.

Credit to the Panthers, in that they are fun, fun team to watch. I imagine a Panthers / Devils series would be off the hook with all the speed. Tkachuk is also a beast.

I dont think they were more disciplined, they just didnt get called for the stuff they were doing. It wasnt as bad as the Boston series, but it will be a factor to keep an eye on as the series progresses. Panthers need to stay out of the box, or at least have the calls evened out, in order to win the series.

Im not saying that the whole team is soft, but from watching them, the last few seasons I believe that throwing the body takes them off their game a bit, or at least some of your top end players. And when its the playoffs, and things are not as wide open as the regular season, that can take a toll on those players. Nylander for example, who is great offensively, is a bitch IMO, and I think the Leafs could fare better in games overall if he was a bit more willing to play the body.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Bobrovsky stole gm #1 but if florida playing the same way all series long, its kind of game they will lose 8/10

But leafs will have to convert their scoring chance and being smarter on pressing. Both mccabe and brodie get caught out of position on verheaghe goal being overagressive and probably cost the game.

That’s too simplistic an analysis. Bob didn’t score 4 goals with only one PP. Four goals wins most playoff games.
Both goalies were really good. I just don’t see the penalties going 6-1 in favour of any team going forward. This is an extremely even series. Florida’s D has been the biggest difference so far imo as compared to Toronto’s. Toronto’s D needs to make fewer mistakes.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Literally ahead the entire game and pulled away in the second, just like I mentioned...

they were an extra expect goal up since the second period... seems significant

You’ve failed to address a single point put forth. If you trace the conversation, you never once said “literally ahead the entire game and pulled away in the second.” That’s not even what we are discussing. Delusional.

I’ll remind you of what you failed to adddress:
- The MoneyPuck model you cited was at 46-54 in favor of Toronto while the expected goal differential remained within 1
- The MoneyPuck model you cited gave Toronto credit, down 2-4, for an extended desperation push with an empty net for over 2 minutes
- the late game push dramatically moved the model you cited
- the late game push only occurs because Toronto is losing and Florida is trying to protect their lead
- this simulation does not (cannot) account for changes in mentality and play style from the temporal elements of playing the game
- you made a boldfaced lie (or are delusional) when you claimed to be monitoring MoneyPuck’s metric all night

And I’ll add:
- you can literally go filter “flurry/venue/score adjusted” 5 on 5 and that supposed deserving statistical advantage Toronto had entirely disappears outside of their PP
- the two early PPs effectively give the curve hours looking at a +y axis boost
- if you think two early PPs and 2 minutes of empty net time means another team was more deserving of a win, you’re delusional

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Mat is underpaid and exceeding his value. Kind of a common occurrence with no tax teams fella. Anywhere else and he's looking at 10-11. You done gone f***ed up trying to compare high tax markets to no tax markets thinking you had a point.

Tkachuk is a unicorn player really…. Not anyone near as good as he is with similar style…. And prob the most annoying player in the league(him or bunting).

He’s better than prime Marchand and prime perry for sure and more annoying , they are the closest players to him stylistically.

 

[Laus723]

Make no mistake, Barkov is a passenger on the Tkachuck train in Florida, unbelievable how overrated Barkov is.

Lmao, what? Overrated? He’s a passenger? Show your work please.

 

[mm11]

Nice win for the road team. Seems like a lot of folks are bypassing the cats had just about zero time to recoup after an emotional game 7 series. Solid solid job by Maurice and crew. Think the leafs may be in trouble. Time will tell. Game 2 is a big one eh?

 

[notbias]

Tkachuk is a unicorn player really…. Not anyone near as good as he is with similar style…. And prob the most annoying player in the league(him or bunting).

He’s better than prime Marchand and prime perry for sure and more annoying , they are the closest players to him stylistically.

He's had one good playoff so far... I'd pump the breaks a little on the "better than prime Marchand or Perry".

He's also won 0 awards?

 

[Drytoast]

Tkachuk is a unicorn player really…. Not anyone near as good as he is with similar style…. And prob the most annoying player in the league(him or bunting).

He’s better than prime Marchand and prime perry for sure and more annoying , they are the closest players to him stylistically.

I think he's the perfect type of playoff performer the league needs and misses dearly from the 80-90's. We used to be a league full up on power forwards. I hope we get back to that.

 

[thusk]

That’s too simplistic an analysis. Bob didn’t score 4 goals with only one PP. Four goals wins most playoff games.
Both goalies were really good. I just don’t see the penalties going 6-1 in favour of any team going forward. This is an extremely even series. Florida’s D has been the biggest difference so far imo as compared to Toronto’s. Toronto’s D needs to make fewer mistakes.

Bobrovsky had been pretty good
Samsonov at best was okay

Thats the difference

Scoring chance 39-26
High danger chance 20-11
High danger shit 15-8
Expecting goal 4.46-2.47

So telling panthers d was the differenfe is totally false, the difference is bobrovsky outplayed Samsonov thats it

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Bobrovsky had been pretty good
Samsonov at best was okay

Thats the difference

Scoring chance 39-26
High danger chance 20-11
High danger shit 15-8
Expecting goal 4.46-2.47

So telling panthers d was the differenfe is totally false, the difference is bobrovsky outplayed Samsonov thats it

Incorrect. As I said you score 4 goals with only one PP you win most playoff games regardless of how your goalie plays. Too many blunders by the Leafs D. That’s not on Samsonov.

 

[TopG]

Its going to be so easy right lmao

It will be. They dominated Florida last night. No different how Tampa took game 1. Leafs are the best team left in the playoffs and played like it

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

He's had one good playoff so far... I'd pump the breaks a little on the "better than prime Marchand or Perry".

He's also won 0 awards?

Marchand has 0 awards…. Perry has a mvp and goal trophy…. But wasn’t going up against anyone close to Mcdavid caliber.

Perry was exactly amazing playoff performer…. He had 3 good ones and a bunch of okay ones, he scored clutch goals…. But he wasn’t exactly dominate in a lot of series. Getzlaf was the dominant guy in Anaheim.

 

[waitin425]

Leafs Fans: We made it past the first round!!!!!!

Bobrovsky:

 

[notbias]

Marchand has 0 awards…. Perry has a mvp and goal trophy…. But wasn’t going up against anyone close to Mcdavid caliber.

Perry was exactly amazing playoff performer…. He had 3 good ones and a bunch of okay ones, he scored clutch goals…. But he wasn’t exactly dominate in a lot of series. Getzlaf was the dominant guy in Anaheim.

So far Thachuk has had a good round and a half and has helped his team get to the... 2nd round

Leafs Fans: We made it past the first round!!!!!!

Bobrovsky:

He's the only worry after the first game... he CAN be a Vezina-caliber goalie... he also can be terrible. Hoping the latter is what ends up happening.

Actually, Samsanov is worrisome too, he is very inconsistent.

 

[theaub]

So telling panthers d was the differenfe is totally false, the difference is bobrovsky outplayed Samsonov thats it

Yeah was extremely clear watching the game that Bobrovsky made many more big saves than Samsonov. Not that Samsonov played bad, but Bobrovsky was extremely good.

Leafs should take solace that Bobrovsky (probably) won't play like that all series with his general inconsistency nowadays, but that also doesn't give Florida enough credit for how well they played 5v5.

Said yesterday AM I thought last night's game was a good spot for Florida, will be very surprised if this doesn't go back to Sunrise 1-1.