Eastern Conference playoff picture: Leafs HOST Tampa Bay

[ToneDog]

164 point pace without 16, 34 and 91. Lol.

 

[zeke]

Rosters from best to worst:

With most recent /best guess at actual lines and pairings:

 

[djdev]

bring on TB, at the end of the day we gonna have to beat the best, beating the back to back champs out of the gate could be the push we really need to win a cup. just gotta giterdone!

 

[RunItBackAgain]

Live or die by the top line. Hopefully Bunting is ready to go!

 

[Man Bear Pig]

f*** Tampa and their cap convention roster.

 

[Scott r]

Tampa in 5 or 6 is my opinion. Better goalie by far and back to back champiion..also Kutcherov and Stamkos will be very strong. How can u not take Tampa here

 

[666]

Rosters from best to worst:

View attachment 538051




With most recent /best guess at actual lines and pairings:


View attachment 538053

Using data for the entire season like this especially anything that uses expected goals is pretty silly.

The basic stats for the month of April say a lot more.

Player	Team	GP	Goals	Total Assists	Total Points
Steven Stamkos	T.B	16​	12​	21​	33​
Nikita Kucherov	T.B	16​	14​	17​	31​
Victor Hedman	T.B	16​	1​	20​	21​
Auston Matthews	TOR	11​	10​	9​	19​
Mitchell Marner	TOR	14​	7​	11​	18​
William Nylander	TOR	14​	8​	9​	17​

 

[egd27]

164 point pace without 16, 34 and 91. Lol.

You're going to have to switch to a Dubie avatar with posts like this

 

[The Shadow]

I don’t this is the year the Leafs make their run. But they are close

Reminds me of Washington before they won it all

The leafs just aren’t in the same league as Tampa despite what the standings say. I hope I’m wrong

 

[zeke]

Record with Starting Goalie in net:

TOR 46gms, 121pt pace
TBL 62gms, 110 pt pace


With backups:

TOR 18gms, 109pt pace
TBL 18gms, 114pt pace


With 3rd stringers:

TOR 18gms, 105pt pace
TBL 2gms, 82pt pace

 

[zeke]

Using data for the entire season like this especially anything that uses expected goals is pretty silly.

The basic stats for the month of April say a lot more.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Total Assists[/TD]
[TD]Total Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Steven Stamkos[/TD]
[TD]T.B[/TD]

[TD]

16​

[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]

[TD]

33​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nikita Kucherov[/TD]
[TD]T.B[/TD]

[TD]

16​

[/TD]

[TD]

14​

[/TD]

[TD]

17​

[/TD]

[TD]

31​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victor Hedman[/TD]
[TD]T.B[/TD]

[TD]

16​

[/TD]

[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]

19​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitchell Marner[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]

14​

[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]

14​

[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]

17​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

First time I've heard anyone say that only April stats matter but sure, let's look just at April:

 

[666]

First time I've heard anyone say that only April stats matter but sure, let's look just at April:

View attachment 538266

I don't know why you switched from individual players to teams and then didn't use expected goals which is a team stat. I'd like to see your previous chart with at least more recent data as what happened last October really doesn't have much to say about today. Or at least post trading deadline.

 

[zeke]

I don't know why you switched from individual players to teams and then didn't use expected goals which is a team stat. I'd like to see your previous chart with at least more recent data as what happened last October really doesn't have much to say about today.

And I don't know why you selected a few players on a one month hot streak as the new decider of what stats matter.


April Stats

TOR 56.2gf%, 57.2xgf%, .800pts%
TBL 58.6gf%, 54.8xgf%, .625pts%

 

[authentic]

Using data for the entire season like this especially anything that uses expected goals is pretty silly.

The basic stats for the month of April say a lot more.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]GP[/TD]
[TD]Goals[/TD]
[TD]Total Assists[/TD]
[TD]Total Points[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Steven Stamkos[/TD]
[TD]T.B[/TD]

[TD]

16​

[/TD]

[TD]

12​

[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]

[TD]

33​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nikita Kucherov[/TD]
[TD]T.B[/TD]

[TD]

16​

[/TD]

[TD]

14​

[/TD]

[TD]

17​

[/TD]

[TD]

31​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Victor Hedman[/TD]
[TD]T.B[/TD]

[TD]

16​

[/TD]

[TD]

1​

[/TD]

[TD]

20​

[/TD]

[TD]

21​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Auston Matthews[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]

10​

[/TD]

[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]

19​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mitchell Marner[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]

14​

[/TD]

[TD]

7​

[/TD]

[TD]

11​

[/TD]

[TD]

18​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]William Nylander[/TD]
[TD]TOR[/TD]

[TD]

14​

[/TD]

[TD]

8​

[/TD]

[TD]

9​

[/TD]

[TD]

17​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Lmao

 

[666]

And I don't know why you selected a few players on a one month hot streak as the new decider of what stats matter.


April Stats

TOR 56.2gf%, 57.2xgf%, .800pts%
TBL 58.6gf%, 54.8xgf%, .625pts%

I showed the April individual stats to show who's on a hot streak.

What I'd like to see is your Atlantic stats since the trade deadline.
Season stats are meaningless because Kucherov missed half the season and our lineup now has Gio but not Sandin etc.

 

[zeke]

I showed the April individual stats to show who's on a hot streak.

What I'd like to see is your Atlantic stats since the trade deadline.
Season stats are meaningless because Kucherov missed half the season and our lineup now has Gio but not Sandin etc.

Tell me exactly what stats you want and I'll try to get them for you.

I can tell you that the Leafs have the best record in hockey since the deadline.

 

[666]

Tell me exactly what stats you want and I'll try to get them for you.

I can tell you that the Leafs have the best record in hockey since the deadline.

Game score value added since the dead line with most recent / best guess at actual lines and pairings. Thanks, I appreciate it.

 

[zeke]

Game score value added since the dead line with most recent / best guess at actual lines and pairings. Thanks, I appreciate it.

There's no GSVA splits like that. It's not a cumulative stat.

GSVA uses ~three years of data weighted for recency. Stamkos' GSVA has rocketed up the last month as a result.

 

[Nylander88]

Can't wait to get the puck dropped on this one. Really hoping Bunting is back for game 1. Things are going to get chippy, I think Clifford & Simmonds each make more sense than Spezza. Reunite Tavares-Nylander...or even more importantly perhaps, Kerfoot & Nylander. They were our best duo last playoffs. Throw that reliable speedy 3rd line back together that can play against any Tampa line in all situations...and let's get this thing rocking. Holl sits for Liljegren.
Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Engvall-Kampf-Mikheyev
Clifford-Blackwell-Simmonds
Rielly-Lyubushkin
Muzzin-Brodie
Giordano-Liljegren
Campbell

 

[666]

There's no GSVA splits like that. It's not a cumulative stat.

GSVA uses ~three years of data weighted for recency. Stamkos' GSVA has rocketed up the last month as a result.

Thanks for trying. But that was my point. There's no use showing season stats when injuries, trades, line changes etc have a huge impact. On the other hand, there aren't any stats that will show how these teams match up due to do the way playoff hockey is just different.

 

[fahad203]

Our chances of beating Tampa are very low

I like those odds. We may actually pull this off

 

[ACC1224]

Well, of course. I meant from a forum perspective. The players are all pros and are ready to face any challenge.

100%

 

[zeke]

Thanks for trying. But that was my point. There's no use showing season stats when injuries, trades, line changes etc have a huge impact. On the other hand, there aren't any stats that will show how these teams match up due to do the way playoff hockey is just different.

OK so you think no stats matter. Fair.

 

[Damisoph]

all this talk about who the Leafs wanted to play is, to put it lightly, complete bullshit. If TBay is so good, we'd be playing them anyway, in round 2 or 3 if we get that far. Imagine the confidence the boys would get by eliminating the 2-time defending champs. This is a good thing in my opinion

 

[Damisoph]

Our chances of beating Tampa are very low

I like those odds. We may actually pull this off

Considering all those charts had us at 60% to beat both CBJ and MTL ... I don't give a sweet flying f*** about our odds.