Eastern Conference playoff picture: Leafs HOST Tampa Bay

[Scott r]

Looks like toronto vs Tampa and tamoa,Tampa, win....thats reality. Even if toronto wins then play florida..not beating both those teams .no,way

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Can we take a second to remember what the Leafs Game #1 lineup was against Montreal last year.

Forwards​

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Zach Hyman	Auston Matthews	Mitch Marner
Nick Foligno	John Tavares	William Nylander
Ilya Mikheyev	Riley Nash	Alexander Kerfoot
Joe Thornton	Jason Spezza	Wayne Simmonds

Extras: Engvall/Galchenyuk

Defencemen​

Left Defence	Right Defence
Morgan Rielly	T.J. Brodie
Jake Muzzin	Justin Holl
Rasmus Sandin	Zach Bogosian

Extra: Dermott

Goaltenders​

Starter	Backup
Jack Campbell	Frederik Andersen

Extra: Hutchinson

Compared to the likely lineup this year.

Forwards​

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Mikael Bunting	Auston Matthews	Mitch Marner
Ilya Mikheyev	John Tavares	Alexander Kerfoot
Pierre Engvall	David Kampf	William Nylander
Wayne Simmonds	Colin Blackwell	Jason Spezza

Extras: Clifford/Abruzzesse/Kase​

Defencemen​

Left Defence	Right Defence
Morgan Rielly	T.J. Brodie/Lyubushkin/Liljegren/Holl
Jake Muzzin/Sandin	Brodie/Lyubushkin/Liljegren/Holl
Mark Giordano	Brodie/Lyubushkin/Liljegren/Holl

Goaltenders​

Starter	Backup
Jack Campbell	Erik Kallgren

Extras: Mrazek

I put the defense the way I did because we don't really know who will be playing on the right side yet. It should be Brodie, Lyubushkin, and Liljegren, but what happens when Sandin comes back? We all know it's a matter of time before Muzzin goes down again. If that happens, Brodie likely goes back to the left to play with Holl. Regardless, this years team, to me anyways, looks so much better than last years team.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

NHL Eastern Conference Playoff Picture

The Eastern Conference Playoff Picture table presents the probabilities that a team will win each NHL playoff spot.

playoffstatus.com

View attachment 529917

Boston dropping off a bit ?

Throwing games because they think going through the Metro will be easier. In for a rude awakening when the Rangers get the top spot and Shesterkin demolishes their dreams.

 

[leafsfan5]

Ranking in hits from the start of season to trade deadline: 28th in the NHL (28th in hits/60)
Ranking in hits since the trade deadline: 4th in the NHL (5th in hits/60)

Maybe it's too small of a sample size but this is a drastic difference. It appears the Leafs are ramping up and developing more of a physical style. The great thing is we aren't sacrificing our game for this, we've been dominant while also playing with an edge.

For reference, here is other top contenders in our division since the TDL:
Tampa: 2nd in the NHL (6th in hits/60)
Boston: 5th in the NHL (7th in hits/60)
Florida: 10th in the NHL (9th in hits/60)

 

[Morbo]

boy, how big was Mikheyev suddenly discovering a scoring touch?

 

[crump]

I hope there are a few upsets in this years first few rounds otherwise the path to the cup is through 4 of the top 9 teams in the NHL.

 

[Mess]

I hope there are a few upsets in this years first few rounds otherwise the path to the cup is through 4 of the top 9 teams in the NHL.

That is why last year still hurts so much as a wasted opportunity by the Leafs with the QofC difference to the Cup compared to this years gauntlet.

 

[Vaive50]

That is why last year still hurts so much as a wasted opportunity by the Leafs with the QofC difference to the Cup compared to this years gauntlet.

But if you've noticed, the Leafs seem to be handling the top teams much easier than the bottom teams, I'd be far more worried if we were to be playing Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs, not so worried against the Bruins or Lightning. Unless Lightning are just playing possum lately (losing 9 out of 11 games against playoff teams) to fool teams and then turn it in on during the playoffs. Kuch seems to be playing at much lower level than the Kuch of past (and Point also).

 

[IPS]

No clue what's going on with Muzzin but man I hope he can get to some semblance of health before the playoffs start. This defense is nowhere near it's best when Muzzin's not on it.

 

[Zybalto]

But if you've noticed, the Leafs seem to be handling the top teams much easier than the bottom teams, I'd be far more worried if we were to be playing Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs, not so worried against the Bruins or Lightning. Unless Lightning are just playing possum lately (losing 9 out of 11 games against playoff teams) to fool teams and then turn it in on during the playoffs. Kuch seems to be playing at much lower level than the Kuch of past (and Point also).

Outside of the Sabres, the Leafs have dominated bad teams this season but goaltending has really let them down.

Even so, if you just look at the Leafs record against all teams 20th and lower in the Standings this season, their record is:

24-8-2.....and thats with bad goaltending making that record look worse than it should be.

Taking out the Sabres, the Leafs are 23-5-2 with 3 of those 7 total losses being completely on the goaltenders during that really bad stretch IMO.

The whole "the Leafs play down to their comp" thing is more than a little overblown.

 

[Vaive50]

Outside of the Sabres, the Leafs have dominated bad teams this season but goaltending has really let them down.

Even so, if you just look at the Leafs record against all teams 20th and lower in the Standings this season, their record is:

24-8-2.....and thats with bad goaltending making that record look worse than it should be.

Taking out the Sabres, the Leafs are 23-5-2 with 3 of those 7 total losses being completely on the goaltenders during that really bad stretch IMO.

The whole "the Leafs play down to their comp" thing is more than a little overblown.

Yeah, I know that they do beat them more than not, but when they lose 2 straight to each Arizona and Montreal, that sticks in your head (3 in the case of Buffalo) but when they win, we expect it and don't remember it. Hopefully they'll beat the Sens tonight to help secure home ice in the playoffs (it didn't help much last year but with no fans, having home ice just isn't the same advantage).

 

[Enga Olly]

Looks like toronto vs Tampa and tamoa,Tampa, win....thats reality. Even if toronto wins then play florida..not beating both those teams .no,way

The 1st round match up I want most is Fla v. TB. Just to have one of the Florida teams gone

 

[Zybalto]

Yeah, I know that they do beat them more than not, but when they lose 2 straight to each Arizona and Montreal, that sticks in your head (3 in the case of Buffalo) but when they win, we expect it and don't remember it. Hopefully they'll beat the Sens tonight to help secure home ice in the playoffs (it didn't help much last year but with no fans, having home ice just isn't the same advantage)

Yea, we pick up a few points here or there and we are fighting for first overall which is a little frustrating. The Sens have sort of "played up" to their comp as well this season (I was in the stands for their crazy game against Florida).

Oddly enough, a quick look at those same 20 or worse in the standings teams are a total 11-20-1 against Carolina this season as well and the Hurricanes have had solid goalkeeping all season so I would probably label them as the good team that "plays down" to their opponents for this year although no good team really sticks out all that much.

 

[Jmo89]

Looking very likely they play Tampa. Probably the team I want the least, but I'm a Leafs fan so it's not like my judgement is great.

 

[Scott r]

If kutcherov has a very good playoff series and there goalie is like he was before....Tampa gonna win. Matthews will be playing much tighter checking. ...series should be a pickem....goalie difference can be alot....Tampa goalie 2 cup winner

 

[crump]

Leafs have 6 games left. We play both Tampa and Boston. They both have 7 games left and Boston needs a really good run to catch Tampa, including beating us the last game of the season. Tampa have the easier schedule imo. So it looks like Tampa. We play them Thursday so it will be a pretty intense game as they can still catch us for Home ice advantage if they do well down the stretch. (why anyone thinks that's not important I don't know, just because it hasn't worked for us in the past doesn't mean the odds are not even better for a us now)

It will be important game for the coaches and starters to get the latest intel on shooters and strategies.

 

[nsleaf]

2 weeks from tonight, IT begins.
GLG.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Metropolitan[/TD]
[TD]Points%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1 Carolina[/TD]
[TD].729[/TD]
[TD]Will win the Metro[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2 Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD].686[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3 NY Rangers[/TD]
[TD].684[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Atlantic[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1 Florida[/TD]
[TD].745[/TD]
[TD]Will win the Conference[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2 Tampa Bay[/TD]
[TD].714[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3 Toronto[/TD]
[TD].698[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wild Card[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1 Washington[/TD]
[TD].625[/TD]
[TD]will be Wild card (1 or 2)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2 Boston[/TD]
[TD].612[/TD]
[TD]will be Wild card (1 or 2)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Metropolitan
1 Carolina
2 Pittsburgh
3 NY Rangers
Atlantic
1 Florida
2 Tampa Bay
3 Toronto
Wild Card
1 Washington
2 Boston

Realistically the Eastern Conference playoff teams were all but certain a long time ago. Now it seems likely that the first round matchups are all but set as well, other than some relatively meaningless changes (like whether or not Florida plays Washington or Boston first round).

I think Florida is a lock for the Atlantic and will win the Conference and play Boston. Maybe Tampa catches them, but the Leafs won't win the Conference and play wild card 1/2 (Boston / Washington).

The Leafs are almost guaranteed to play Tampa Bay first round.

With the first round matchups all but fixed, do the Leafs have any incentive to bang themselves up night in and night out for the next 34 games ? Does it matter if they go .700 or .550 for the rest of the season ? Doesnt really look like it. They won't fallow below Boston and they won't catch Florida. Ideally your team doesn't limp into the post season, but short of that, doesnt it matter if we lose to St.Louis ? I don't think it matters at all.

Since the beginning of the season, one thing has been clear. The Leafs management and expensive forwards will be judged once the playoffs start. It's also clear that this team will only go as far as Campbell and Mrazek will take them. Our forwards may outscore Tampa, but probably not. Essentially this team will be judged fairly or unfairly on our goalies outplaying Vasilevskiy.

Let's be kind to our goalies in the meantime.

Pretty much the Same standings as Feb 2022.

Except Rangers got hot (goalie) and overtook the Penguins.

 

[DarkKnight]

Two weeks tonight the dance begins. Thank gawd.

 

[thusk]

Just telling you the last time tampa bay won in regulation against a eastern playoff team is dec 9 against toronto.. since they lost everygame against those team except an ot win against carolina...

This tampa team is not even close of last 2 season team

 

[riffle]

Just telling you the last time tampa bay won in regulation against a eastern playoff team is dec 9 against toronto.. since they lost everygame against those team except an ot win against carolina...

This tampa team is not even close of last 2 season team

Which one would give the Leafs the most confidence heading into Round 2, assuming a Round 1 win vs. Tampa or Boston?...

Beating the back-to-back champions, or exorcising the demons from playoff series past?

Personally, I'd be more impressed if they could take out Boston, but I have a feeling beating Tampa would do significantly more for them than beating the Bruins.

 

[thusk]

Which one would give the Leafs the most confidence heading into Round 2, assuming a Round 1 win vs. Tampa or Boston?...

Beating the back-to-back champions, or exorcising the demons from playoff series past?

Personally, I'd be more impressed if they could take out Boston, but I have a feeling beating Tampa would do significantly more for them than beating the Bruins.

Dont think who they play matter, just need to push their game at next level...

 

[riffle]

Dont think who they play matter, just need to push their game at next level...

I think it always matters, but you're right about your conclusion.

Was just curious what you, or anyone else, thought would give the Leafs the bigger boost of confidence if they advance to the 2nd round? Beating Tampa...or Boston?

 

[nuck]

Vasilevsky is 3.28 and .893 for April. They match up as well with Tampa as anyone.

 

[nuck]

I think it always matters, but you're right about your conclusion.

Was just curious what you, or anyone else, thought would give the Leafs the bigger boost of confidence if they advance to the 2nd round? Beating Tampa...or Boston?

Boston was the big bad wolf when the club was young but the Leafs are not the little brother any more. Knocking off the defending champ is more relevant today both for the team and the message it sends to the next team they play. Boston is still a very good club but its not even revenge without Chara and Rask, just a win.