Friedman: Dylan Larkin requests trade, Part II

[dgibb10]

That’s completely untrue. Thomas wasn’t traded. This means the offers were not good enough. Offers that weren’t good enough are hardly a basis for what ti expect for a different trade.

Okay let me explain.

Those are the OFFERS for thomas. That is what the other teams were willing to pay. Since Larkin is a lesser, older player those OFFERS will be lesser for him.

Now, yes, STL declined those offers. And rightfully so. You should never trade your core players unless you have to. Thomas value as a younger player means he fits into STLs next contention window and his price and value won't decline as much if they wait.


Unfortunately for Detroit, Larkin has requested a trade.

So, the offers (which will be less than those teams offered for Thomas) will come in, and Detroit will take the best one that larkin will accept a trade to.

Detroit doesn't have the (in reality) ability to just say no to all trades and keep him. Because all it will do is breed a hostile environment, likely lead to worse production from larkin as a combination of discontent and aging sets in, and only make the price drop lower and lower.

As we saw from JT miller and vancouver, discontentment + 1 down half year from a guy whos age starts with a 3 can plummet his value real quick.

 

[duckpuck]

Bro Its not just Larkin. There was a poll out during the season.. PV got voted #1 in hardest to negotiate with lol

Dude - I know that. But that is almost certainly irrelevant in this context. You have literally no reason to think PV's reputation with agents is connected to why Larkin MIGHT not want to play for the ducks (which is speculation at this point). The tweet you responded to specifically speculated it might be a tax issue. It could just as easily be something else (e.g., not wanting to be on the second line, not wanting to play for Coach Q, or simply wanting to stay in the east coast/mid-west for family reasons) You're just using this scenario to take a shot at Verbeek.

 

[SuperScript29]

Dylan Larkin

for

Simon Nemec
Dawson Mercer
2026 1st

Do you accept?

It's an interesting trade proposal, but if NJ is an option, I'd rather we get Hischier back instead of that package.

 

[Golden_Jet]

You're right,

Thanks

 

[SirloinUB]

Thanks

Well played but you are buried the lead.

Since arriving in Buffalo Tuch has never outproduced Larkin. He tied Larkin one time and has put up 45 less points across 5 seasons or an average of 9 less points per season. While playing an easier, more offensive leaning position.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInDetroit]

things change fast in the nhl. it wasnt that long ago that we were discussing trading for thomas and going on a run. yzerman will get what he wants or he'll wait until circumstances change. that's the only thing i know for sure

 

[Tetsuo]

Players like Larkin are never available. Anyone who has watched Detroit knows how good Larkin can be. They also know how poor the fit was with him at 1C, especially at the end of the seasons. Because he has 5 years at a very affordable rate, there is no incentive for Detroit to not maximize his value. Whatever team he does end up on is going to be giving up a significant return, so long as they had a another high end C to play with him.

 

[gary559]

Players like Larkin are never available. Anyone who has watched Detroit knows how good Larkin can be. They also know how poor the fit was with him at 1C, especially at the end of the seasons. Because he has 5 years at a very affordable rate, there is no incentive for Detroit to not maximize his value. Whatever team he does end up on is going to be giving up a significant return, so long as they had a another high end C to play with him.

Keeping a player that wants out because you are waiting for the perfect offer isn't a good idea.

 

[Waldorf]

Keeping a player that wants out because you are waiting for the perfect offer isn't a good idea.

There's not going to be a perfect offer. But one where it gets commensurate value is pretty important and definitely achievable.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Okay let me explain.

Those are the OFFERS for thomas. That is what the other teams were willing to pay. Since Larkin is a lesser, older player those OFFERS will be lesser for him.

Now, yes, STL declined those offers. And rightfully so. You should never trade your core players unless you have to. Thomas value as a younger player means he fits into STLs next contention window and his price and value won't decline as much if they wait.


Unfortunately for Detroit, Larkin has requested a trade.

So, the offers (which will be less than those teams offered for Thomas) will come in, and Detroit will take the best one that larkin will accept a trade to.

Detroit doesn't have the (in reality) ability to just say no to all trades and keep him. Because all it will do is breed a hostile environment, likely lead to worse production from larkin as a combination of discontent and aging sets in, and only make the price drop lower and lower.

As we saw from JT miller and vancouver, discontentment + 1 down half year from a guy whos age starts with a 3 can plummet his value real quick.

youre free to believe what you like. Our GM is a stubborn idiot and won’t take whatever he’s offered if it’s not what he feels is fair value.

 

[dgibb10]

youre free to believe what you like. Our GM is a stubborn idiot and won’t take whatever he’s offered if it’s not what he feels is fair value.

That would be foolish.

If he delays, teams are going to move on. They're going to make their picks, use up their cap space, make trades elsewhere.

And the value of larkin is more likely to go down than up.

Do you think given everything around it right now, larkin will have a career year next year?

I'd look to JT Miller as a warning sign for how a players trade value can change real quick if a bad situation+age leads to some struggles.

 

[Waldorf]

youre so right big dawg, JT Miller is an excellent comp for Larkin who’s appraised himself well everywhere he goes

 

[JediOrderPizza]

youre so right big dawg, JT Miller is an excellent comp for Larkin who’s appraised himself well everywhere he goes

Better hurry up and sell him low to Minny, they might use their next 1st rounder that is in 2027!

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Better hurry up and sell him low to Minny, they might use their next 1st rounder that is in 2027!

It’s only low if you think you’re going to get a 20 year old Larkin for 30 year old Larkin.

 

[dgibb10]

youre so right big dawg, JT Miller is an excellent comp for Larkin who’s appraised himself well everywhere he goes

I'm sure Larkin will be a real treat in the locker room if detroit doesn't honour his trade request!

You can pick any number of 30+ year olds who have a down year or show signs of decline. The value plummets.

But I'm sure larkin stuck in detroit will have his best year yet!

 

[JediOrderPizza]

It’s only low if you think you’re going to get a 20 year old Larkin for 30 year old Larkin.

So no Yurov?

I actually have kinda turned around on Yurov, I just wish Minny had something else.

I'm sure Larkin will be a real treat in the locker room if detroit doesn't honour his trade request!

You can pick any number of 30+ year olds who have a down year or show signs of decline. The value plummets.

But I'm sure larkin stuck in detroit will have his best year yet!

What's he gonna do bully Seider?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So no Yurov?

I actually have kinda turned around on Yurov, I just wish Minny had something else.

Yeah, would be easier. If our 1st round picks don't have value to Detroit, not much else.

 

[JediOrderPizza]

Yeah, would be easier. If our 1st round picks don't have value to Detroit, not much else.

I think they do, but they would probably be flipped for something else. Can't imagine Yzerman wanting to make a couple later round first picks in 27 and 28.

 

[dgibb10]

So no Yurov?

I actually have kinda turned around on Yurov, I just wish Minny had something else.


What's he gonna do bully Seider?

No I think it's just going to be overall not great for performance having it around, and I certainly think it will have a negative impact on Larkins play.

And if 30 year old larkin doesn't have a great year, or even a great half year, or gets hurt, his value drops off a lot quicker than you think. All of a sudden that term starts to get looked at a bit differently. As more risk than reward

 

[newfy]

Okay let me explain.

Those are the OFFERS for thomas. That is what the other teams were willing to pay. Since Larkin is a lesser, older player those OFFERS will be lesser for him.

Now, yes, STL declined those offers. And rightfully so. You should never trade your core players unless you have to. Thomas value as a younger player means he fits into STLs next contention window and his price and value won't decline as much if they wait.


Unfortunately for Detroit, Larkin has requested a trade.

So, the offers (which will be less than those teams offered for Thomas) will come in, and Detroit will take the best one that larkin will accept a trade to.

Detroit doesn't have the (in reality) ability to just say no to all trades and keep him. Because all it will do is breed a hostile environment, likely lead to worse production from larkin as a combination of discontent and aging sets in, and only make the price drop lower and lower.

As we saw from JT miller and vancouver, discontentment + 1 down half year from a guy whos age starts with a 3 can plummet his value real quick.

Yeah except you have no clue what was said behind closed doors or what other teams are willing to pay. You also dont know how teams evaluate Larkin vs Thomas

If teams made those offers for Thomas but they werent enough, how do you know they wont turn around and offer them to Detroit in hopes that it is enough this time around?

The fact of the matter is you dont know any of it and youre talking out of your ass. We know what insiders have said the package will likely look like, and that basically everyone has called on him.

And I'm not saying Larkin is better or a more valuable asset than Thomas, but I would not be shocked at all if a team looked at him and said they want 5 years of an extra 10-12 goals a season and alittle more rugged play out of Larkin at all. All it takes is one to look at it that way

 

[JediOrderPizza]

No I think it's just going to be overall not great for performance having it around, and I certainly think it will have a negative impact on Larkins play.

And if 30 year old larkin doesn't have a great year, or even a great half year, or gets hurt, his value drops off a lot quicker than you think. All of a sudden that term starts to get looked at a bit differently. As more risk than reward

I don't think it'll get to that point.

Or at least I hope.

 

[dgibb10]

I don't think it'll get to that point.

Or at least I hope.

I highly doubt it will either for exactly the reasons I'm stating.

And why I think the "oh we'll just hold onto him" thing isn't realistic at all.

 

[dgibb10]

Yeah except you have no clue what was said behind closed doors or what other teams are willing to pay. You also dont know how teams evaluate Larkin vs Thomas

How about we put on our thinking caps and realize that the younger, better player is more valuable shall we?

 

[newfy]

How about we put on our thinking caps and realize that the younger, better player is more valuable shall we?

Lets put them on and realise Thomas didnt get traded for those prices, and doesnt look like hes getting traded now either. Now the next closest thing is available, similar player with a slight age difference. We're going to pretend the same offers might not go for this guy, but this time it could actually be accepted? Pretend that a team wanting to win might not pivot and offer those same assets here? These players arent drastically different

 

[datsyukfan]

I'm sure Larkin will be a real treat in the locker room if detroit doesn't honour his trade request!

You can pick any number of 30+ year olds who have a down year or show signs of decline. The value plummets.

But I'm sure larkin stuck in detroit will have his best year yet!

Well he can expand his trade list then if he wants out so bad. No reason for Detroit to not get full value. He signed an 8 year contract and has 5 left, he’s the one wanting to break the relationship not Detroit