Player Discussion Dylan Cozens, C/RW, 2019 7th overall Part 2

[Archie Lee]

Ive been wanting to do a littler evaluation of some of these stats along side the eye test.

Does the article hypothesize the reason for the dropoff, or does it simply state that his numbers got worse?

I really think analytics in hockey is interesting, but feel like sometimes a lot of the popular people in this domain are content to pretty much say "x player got better/worse based on y metric" and sort of leave it there instead of trying to figure out why

I don’t think Goldman does a deep dive into the why, but my take is that the underlying reason is that post-2022/2023 we asked our young players to start playing a more complete game without properly supporting them with veterans who can assist. Thus we have a group of kids, Cozens at the fore-front, who have next to no on-ice support. The defence are talented, but largely one dimensional and young. Same for the top-9 forwards. Thus far, the efforts to get Cozens’s game going have amounted to trying him with different wingers who are younger than him. Goldman suggests that giving Cozens a veteran winger who plays a heavy forecheck and can take care of the physical side of the game would help him; also a defensive Defenceman could help.

Cozens, like all of our young players, was asked to do too much too soon without the needed veteran support. His game is collapsing under the weight of unreasonable expectations.

 

[MOGlLNY]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6018346/2024/12/26/sabres-dylan-cousins-decline-options/

Not good, Bob.

Fantastic article by Shayna. Although Cozens has been my whipping boy going back to last year, I agree that now is not the time to move him unless you can get a significant upgrade. It would be desperate and selling at a likely all time low/

The ideal move (we all f***ing knew this in the offseason) is to get another winger for the top 6.

Ive been wanting to do a littler evaluation of some of these stats along side the eye test.

Does the article hypothesize the reason for the dropoff, or does it simply state that his numbers got worse?

I really think analytics in hockey is interesting, but feel like sometimes a lot of the popular people in this domain are content to pretty much say "x player got better/worse based on y metric" and sort of leave it there instead of trying to figure out why

It’s a very deep dive on both sides showing video of where he struggles. Use the site 12ft.io to bypass the block

 

[Fjordy]

And what kind of wingers does Cozens need to start playing normally and scoring a lot of points again? Or maybe he should become a winger himself?

 

[Der Jaeger]

Great article. Reinforces the idea that Buffalo needs help at center. I have always thought Cozens was a winger. I think that position change would highlight a lot of the things he does really well.

 

[dickiedunnwrotethis]

Great article. Reinforces the idea that Buffalo needs help at center. I have always thought Cozens was a winger. I think that position change would highlight a lot of the things he does really well.

Hundy P. As you said, a change to wing could highlight what he has - at times - shown the ability to do well but also help disguise what he can't.

If they have the courage to admit they were wrong and permanently make the position change (and Cozens can show that he can come close to fulfilling a 7 million dollar winger role) then I think that greatly simplifies what roster changes need to be made. Trade one of Power/Byram and trade Peterka. Those pieces should go a long way to finding a legit 2C and a partner for Byram/Power and maybe solve the roster imbalance that's been plaguing the Sabres for years.

 

[Fjordy]

Great article. Reinforces the idea that Buffalo needs help at center. I have always thought Cozens was a winger. I think that position change would highlight a lot of the things he does really well.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Zegras sucks - sorry

 

[Fjordy]

Zegras sucks - sorry

Why? Playmaker center for a line with Cozens on the wing.

 

[OkimLom]

Zegras sucks - sorry

I think he's skilled and has the ability to be impactful. But I don't think hes a good fit, so

Zegras sucks - Nah.
Zegras is not a good fit - Absolutely.

 

[Fjordy]

I think he's skilled and has the ability to be impactful. But I don't think hes a good fit, so

Zegras sucks - Nah.
Zegras is not a good fit - Absolutely.

Who good fit for us? We lack players with high IQ and playmakers, at least Zegras has it, many top 6 C have NMC/NTC or they are not available. It is difficult to find this, especially proven ones.

 

[MOGlLNY]

I think he's skilled and has the ability to be impactful. But I don't think hes a good fit, so

Zegras sucks - Nah.
Zegras is not a good fit - Absolutely.

Sorry let me be clear - Zegras sucks for what we are trying to accomplish

 

[Fjordy]

Sorry let me be clear - Zegras sucks for what we are trying to accomplish

Aren't we looking for a center?

 

[Chainshot]

Guys, not every thread needs to be a general roster thread.

 

[CaliSabresfan24]

Aren't we looking for a center?

We are but at the same time, this roster can not keep getting younger. We need proven NHL veterans.

 

[Irie]

The ideal move (we all f***ing knew this in the offseason) is to get another winger for the top 6.

I think the problem is that it seems just about every team in the league was looking for a top six winger last off-season, and zero were traded. That leaves moves like a huge UFA overpay for Zucker as a poorman's solution to the problem everyone knew existed.

Any trade that would have brought in a top 6 winger would have more than likely been a huge loss value wise as it was very much a seller's market. Giving up multiple high-end assets for a 2nd line wing would be very bad business.

This team needs a consistent game changing play driver in their top 6, but those players are rarely available, and often have NMCs which makes them even tougher to find for small market teams like the Sabres.

Everyone wants the team to acquire a forward that can carry this team to the next level, but if we are being realistic, that piece will likely have to come from the farm or through the draft.

 

[Fjordy]

I think the problem is that it seems just about every team in the league was looking for a top six winger last off-season, and zero were traded. That leaves moves like a huge UFA overpay for Zucker as a poorman's solution to the problem everyone knew existed.

Any trade that would have brought in a top 6 winger would have more than likely been a huge loss value wise as it was very much a seller's market. Giving up multiple high-end assets for a 2nd line wing would be very bad business.

This team needs a consistent game changing play driver in their top 6, but those players are rarely available, and often have NMCs which makes them even tougher to find for small market teams like the Sabres.

Everyone wants the team to acquire a forward that can carry this team to the next level, but if we are being realistic, that piece will likely have to come from the farm or through the draft.

Well you had Ehlers and Necas. Necas just break out this season, maybe they should have overpaid a little? You have no excuse for not adding a top 6 forward in four years, it ended up biting us in the ass and we barely had a second line this season. Why do other teams add guys like that? Zito added Reinhart, Tkachuk, then added Verhaeghe for free and he break out. Bennett, cheap and he break out. I disagree that you only do it through other smart GMs disproving your theory. Fitzgerald added Meier early. Montreal added Laine (okay, he didn't suit us), Caps added PLD as a cap dump and he's their 2C and doing well. Not that I'm a fan of PLD with his weird situation, but Cozens was playing on PLD's wing at WC and it worked. You can't add a legit top 6 forward for some unknown reason for so many years, look for potential top 6 forwards like others do, and don't cry about taxes and palm trees, it's a disgrace No, you can't build a team on kids and a defense this bad, that's why Adams is going to be fired.

 

[sabremike]

Well you had Ehlers and Necas. Necas just break out this season, maybe they should have overpaid a little? You have no excuse for not adding a top 6 forward in four years, it ended up biting us in the ass and we barely had a second line this season. Why do other teams add guys like that? Zito added Reinhart, Tkachuk, then added Verhaeghe for free and he break out. Bennett, cheap and he break out. I disagree that you only do it through other smart GMs disproving your theory. Fitzgerald added Meier early. Montreal added Laine (okay, he didn't suit us), Caps added PLD as a cap dump and he's their 2C and doing well. Not that I'm a fan of PLD with his weird situation, but Cozens was playing on PLD's wing at WC and it worked. You can't add a legit top 6 forward for some unknown reason for so many years, look for potential top 6 forwards like others do, and don't cry about taxes and palm trees, it's a disgrace No, you can't build a team on kids and a defense this bad, that's why Adams is going to be fired.

Adams literally attempted to build/construct a roster in a way that has never worked in the history of the sport and SURPRISE it failed in catastrophic fashion. Cozens' career is one of the many casualties of that incompetent oaf's stupidity.

 

[Irie]

Well you had Ehlers and Necas. Necas just break out this season, maybe they should have overpaid a little? You have no excuse for not adding a top 6 forward in four years, it ended up biting us in the ass and we barely had a second line this season. Why do other teams add guys like that? Zito added Reinhart, Tkachuk, then added Verhaeghe for free and he break out. Bennett, cheap and he break out. I disagree that you only do it through other smart GMs disproving your theory. Fitzgerald added Meier early. Montreal added Laine (okay, he didn't suit us), Caps added PLD as a cap dump and he's their 2C and doing well. Not that I'm a fan of PLD with his weird situation, but Cozens was playing on PLD's wing at WC and it worked. You can't add a legit top 6 forward for some unknown reason for so many years, look for potential top 6 forwards like others do, and don't cry about taxes and palm trees, it's a disgrace No, you can't build a team on kids and a defense this bad, that's why Adams is going to be fired.

First of all, it is super disingenuous to question "not targeting" guys owed 60M dollars with 7 years on their contracts who are not playing like top six forwards, and pretending that there should have been 2020 hindsight. PLD was traded for a cap dump goalie with well below average numbers carrying a large contract. Every team in the league could have traded for PLD for nothing, because it was an extremely risky venture, yet no one did. The caps dumped one problem to gamble on another.

Second, there were reports that Necas would not sign in Buffalo. Why should they trade a truckload of assets for a guy that will only be around for a season with his arbitration eligibility?

Third, Meier had a 10M dollar qualifying offer and would have signed it and walked in a year with Buffalo. Do you really believe the Sabres should have beaten the six piece package that the Devils gave up for him?

Fourth, Ehlers, NTC.

Fifth, Tkchuk, Calgary was not giving up Tkchuk for futures, and the Sabres had very little in July of 2022 that would have gotten Treliving to listen. Dahlin? Tage and Tuch? That is likely what the cost would have been. Given that those guys wanted to be in Buffalo and Tkachuk likely would not have wanted to be in Buffalo, would it have been wise?

Sixth, Bennet was a rental. He would have walked at season's end. The cost wasn't that high, but he would have only been around for a dozen games, and the team was not going anywhere. No smart GM makes that move then.

I appreciate this boards persistence to hold on the the illusion that there is no Buffalo small market disadvantage, but the facts are what they are. Buffalo has been ranked bottom three places to play by the players in the league for decades. They are on nearly every players NTC list. Throwing all of your trade assets to acquire guys that will walk in a year when this team is not a cup contender is foolhardy. The forward that this team needs is likely not available to this team. That is just a reality that sucks. They had that forward in Eichel, but when he went public with his grievances, Dumbass Adams should have swallowed his pride, had a one on one meeting with Jack and done whatever was required to repair the damage behind closed doors, but instead he went to the media and basically called him a liar, so here we are.

Secondary tiered UFAs that are flawed can be attracted with over payments, but those guys are almost always players with money as prioroty one and are more mercenaries than saviors, and adding one of them isn't likely to fix anything. I stand by what I said earlier, this team needs a bonafide star forward that can consistently drive offense, and those guys are rarely ever available, and if they are, they are probably a short time away from UFA, and they more than likely would not re-up in Buffalo. This team needs to hold on to their good players and hope one of them takes a big step and becomes what they need. (They are still the youngest team in the league, so the future is still bright, but for the love of god, get some coaching that coaches discipline. The win on effort alone philosophy no longer works in this league).

 

[Fjordy]

First of all, it is super disingenuous to question "not targeting" guys owed 60M dollars with 7 years on their contracts who are not playing like top six forwards, and pretending that there should have been 2020 hindsight. PLD was traded for a cap dump goalie with well below average numbers carrying a large contract. Every team in the league could have traded for PLD for nothing, because it was an extremely risky venture, yet no one did. The caps dumped one problem to gamble on another.

Second, there were reports that Necas would not sign in Buffalo. Why should they trade a truckload of assets for a guy that will only be around for a season with his arbitration eligibility?

Third, Meier had a 10M dollar qualifying offer and would have signed it and walked in a year with Buffalo. Do you really believe the Sabres should have beaten the six piece package that the Devils gave up for him?

Fourth, Ehlers, NTC.

Fifth, Tkchuk, Calgary was not giving up Tkchuk for futures, and the Sabres had very little in July of 2022 that would have gotten Treliving to listen. Dahlin? Tage and Tuch? That is likely what the cost would have been. Given that those guys wanted to be in Buffalo and Tkachuk likely would not have wanted to be in Buffalo, would it have been wise?

Sixth, Bennet was a rental. He would have walked at season's end. The cost wasn't that high, but he would have only been around for a dozen games, and the team was not going anywhere. No smart GM makes that move then.

I appreciate this boards persistence to hold on the the illusion that there is no Buffalo small market disadvantage, but the facts are what they are. Buffalo has been ranked bottom three places to play by the players in the league for decades. They are on nearly every players NTC list. Throwing all of your trade assets to acquire guys that will walk in a year when this team is not a cup contender is foolhardy. The forward that this team needs is likely not available to this team. That is just a reality that sucks. They had that forward in Eichel, but when he went public with his grievances, Dumbass Adams should have swallowed his pride, had a one on one meeting with Jack and done whatever was required to repair the damage behind closed doors, but instead he went to the media and basically called him a liar, so here we are.

Secondary tiered UFAs that are flawed can be attracted with over payments, but those guys are almost always players with money as prioroty one and are more mercenaries than saviors, and adding one of them isn't likely to fix anything. I stand by what I said earlier, this team needs a bonafide star forward that can consistently drive offense, and those guys are rarely ever available, and if they are, they are probably a short time away from UFA, and they more than likely would not re-up in Buffalo. This team needs to hold on to their good players and hope one of them takes a big step and becomes what they need. (They are still the youngest team in the league, so the future is still bright, but for the love of god, get some coaching that coaches discipline. The win on effort alone philosophy no longer works in this league).

You will find any excuse for our bastard GM. I never doubted you, you always have an answer, it's just wrong. Bravo!

Necas would have been under control for two years. Ehlers was rumored to be willing to go to Buffalo. PLD is just an opportunity when one GM does and another doesn't. PLD plays a line with two young players and thrives, just like the young players thrive around him. But that's not even the point, you didn't understand the point and your mistake. OTHER GMs look for an opportunity and find one, OUR GM does nothing. Are you suggesting we wait for one of our young players to break out? That's a f***ing stupid strategy and plan for a team like Buffalo that's been drowning in shit for almost 15 years.

Bill Zito added five new players to his top 6 after joining, five f***ing players, only Barkov is left. Where did he get them? Verhaeghe is a free - waiver, Reinhart is for futures, Tkachuk is a hockey deal, Bennett is for futures, Rodrigues is UFA. That is, two players for futures and two for free. And you're going to tell me about the impossibility of adding players to Buffalo? Again, justify that bastard Adams, over and over again, ok, keep it up.

You didn't even understand what I told you, I didn't say go trade for Bennett or Tkachuk, I said go and find another Bennett, go and find another Verhaeghe, Forsling, who were worth almost nothing. Stop sitting with the youngest roster and whining in the press about taxes and palm trees, this is an absurd position of a loser. Luck is with the brave, like Zito or other GMs who constantly make some kind of attempt to improve their team, and not with cowards like KEVYN ADAMS, who for five years only drafts and does nothing. I've said it all and a smart person will understand me, but Kevyn Adams' lawyer, like you, will continue to make excuses for this idiot.

What about our defense? Does no one want to go to Buffalo either? Even with the new coach publicly stating that he doesn't like it when players play on the wrong side of the defense, did Ruff and Adams even discuss their roster before the season? Or do they not talk.

So we see the situation with Samuelsson getting another injury and his poor play at the beginning of the season. Jokiharju gets his second healthy scratch for a long time, Bryson plays in our top 4, Johnson, f*** it, Adams won't do a damn thing. Marino was traded for futures, Kovacevic for the fourth, Jensen is a great veteran who greatly helps Ottawa and their young defense. Fabbro for free to Columbus, where he was expected to be a great complementary player to Werenski on the first pair. Carrier is being traded to Montreal, when before this season he had good metrics in defense and at PK. f*** that's five potential RDs for Buffalo in a short amount of time, what Adams did is nothing. Keep making excuses for the worst GM in the league.

 

[Irie]

You will find any excuse for our bastard GM. I never doubted you, you always have an answer, it's just wrong. Bravo!

Necas would have been under control for two years. Ehlers was rumored to be willing to go to Buffalo. PLD is just an opportunity when one GM does and another doesn't. PLD plays a line with two young players and thrives, just like the young players thrive around him. But that's not even the point, you didn't understand the point and your mistake. OTHER GMs look for an opportunity and find one, OUR GM does nothing. Are you suggesting we wait for one of our young players to break out? That's a f***ing stupid strategy and plan for a team like Buffalo that's been drowning in shit for almost 15 years.

Bill Zito added five new players to his top 6 after joining, five f***ing players, only Barkov is left. Where did he get them? Verhaeghe is a free - waiver, Reinhart is for futures, Tkachuk is a hockey deal, Bennett is for futures, Rodrigues is UFA. That is, two players for futures and two for free. And you're going to tell me about the impossibility of adding players to Buffalo? Again, justify that bastard Adams, over and over again, ok, keep it up.

You didn't even understand what I told you, I didn't say go trade for Bennett or Tkachuk, I said go and find another Bennett, go and find another Verhaeghe, Forsling, who were worth almost nothing. Stop sitting with the youngest roster and whining in the press about taxes and palm trees, this is an absurd position of a loser. Luck is with the brave, like Zito or other GMs who constantly make some kind of attempt to improve their team, and not with cowards like KEVYN ADAMS, who for five years only drafts and does nothing. I've said it all and a smart person will understand me, but Kevyn Adams' lawyer, like you, will continue to make excuses for this idiot.

What about our defense? Does no one want to go to Buffalo either? Even with the new coach publicly stating that he doesn't like it when players play on the wrong side of the defense, did Ruff and Adams even discuss their roster before the season? Or do they not talk.

So we see the situation with Samuelsson getting another injury and his poor play at the beginning of the season. Jokiharju gets his second healthy scratch for a long time, Bryson plays in our top 4, Johnson, f*** it, Adams won't do a damn thing. Marino was traded for futures, Kovacevic for the fourth, Jensen is a great veteran who greatly helps Ottawa and their young defense. Fabbro for free to Columbus, where he was expected to be a great complementary player to Werenski on the first pair. Carrier is being traded to Montreal, when before this season he had good metrics in defense and at PK. f*** that's five potential RDs for Buffalo in a short amount of time, what Adams did is nothing. Keep making excuses for the worst GM in the league.

It is not about Adams. As i have said many times, this mess was created by him, but Buffalo, Winnipeg, Ottawa, San Jose. - small market teams do not attract big free agents. Even when Buffalo was winning the president trophy, all their stars had one foot out the door. The one consistent argument I have made for Adams is that he is building for the future and not pissing away assets for guys that will leave. Until Terry sells or steps aside and allows someone else to make the hiring decisions, you could do a whole lot worse than Adams. Another Botts or Murray would be a nightmare.

You just do not understand the NHL dynamics of small markets. and you want to trade all the young guys before they break out, and unrealistically believe that anyone will sign in Buffalo if traded for. It is BS and I hate BS.

You also grossly underestimate all of the players here. They are not bad players. This team has been ahead in the third period of so many of the games that they have lost this season, that I have lost count. If the coaching could figure out how to play disciplined hockey and protect a lead, they would be comfortably in a playoff position right now.

This team is close, and to ignore how they have played for 2/3rds of most games and just look at their record is ignorant. People screaming to blow it up are just frustrated, and I get it, but this team is still the youngest team in the league and they are close. Honestly I do get it. Watching them puck chase and leave passing lanes and guys wide open time and time again hurts my soul, and I absolutely hated the Ruff Hire. They got rid of Donny and replaced him with a guy who coaches the same fricken way. Sure, Ruff is harder to play for, but he doesn't bring any new ideas to a new league that requires team play for success. And Adams keeping all the assistants was a firing offense on it;s own, but I think Terry and money had a lot to do with some of that. Fiscal responsibility runs this team, and anyone saying that it is not true is not paying attention.

Fire Adams, I don't care, what I care about is reality, and the reality is that every team was looking for top six forwards and none that were playing well were traded. Probably something like 80-85% of GM moves in this league blow up in their faces. You cherry pick the 15% of moves that actually work out and say, ""why can't our GM do that?!?" Well I hate to break it to you, but three quarters of the GMs in the league can't do "That" during most offseasons. And by all reports, almost all of the moves Adams has tried to make have been blocked by the players he is trying to acquire (small market strikes again).

Buffalo being an undesirable destination for players is real. Live in a fantasy world where it isn't actually a thing if you like, but I'm going to keep calling it out when someone pretends it doesn't exist. Also, Waiver wire pickups that break out that half the teams in the league pass on is not really science, it is luck.