Friedman: Duchene Mega-Thread Pt. 1 - Ottawa fielding offers, NSH & CBJ interested; Duchene sitting

[Porter Stoutheart]

Forsberg and Arvi are pure goal scorers, but Duchene is definitely better than RyJo as a setup guy and someone who can pot his own goals as well... so he'd instantly be your top line C, IMO

if you guys got Stone too... Golden State Warriors of the NHL

I don't expect Duchene would be better than Johansen. If he was, wow... that would be something. But I don't see anything in his history as a player to suggest that could be something to hope for. If he's about the same overall - totally different style of course - then I'd still be totally satisfied and happy to have him. Even if he was just a notch below Johansen that would be fine, he could still drive a powerful 2nd line, which is what we need.

If we had Stone too... well, that is too much to even dream about at this point.

 

[TSA0402]

I wouldn't be terribly disappointed if the deal ends up Tolvanen + 1st + cap piece + smaller prospect or conditional pick for Duchene resigning.

Uncertain about Tolvanen to be honest, but that's pretty reasonable haul for a very good rental.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

What 3rd pieces could be added to 1st + Tolvanen

I'm thinking of Fiala Hartman and Bonino

no to fiala. hartman possibly.

i don't see much use for ottawa with bonino considering age.

 

[Armourboy]

That’s what I’m saying. However some people still don’t get that.

My point is though Ottawa didn't get anything extra for that. Turris was worth X if something could be worked out. He was worth nothing otherwise to Poile.

Poile wasn't going to drop pieces off and still make a deal for him. Allowing him to talk made the deal work at all, he didn't toss in Kamenev because Ottawa let them work out the deal first.

In the case of Duchene, Poile will give up probably a 1st, Tolvanen and another prospect not named Fabbro if he is allowed to talk to Duchene. If he isn't then he offers nothing.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I think Fabbro is completely off the table. Poile hasn't said so specifically, but I think there is a reason you aren't hearing his name like you are Tolvanen's.

Agreed. There is an argument to be made that if we add another top forward long-term then we can forego the wait on Tolvanen emerging as one. But Fabbro is too much a core part of our future planning. I think we have a spot right away for Fabbro next season, and we aren't acquiring anybody else to take that spot.

There is no way both of them move for sure, that is completely a non-starter. But if even one of them moves, it's going to be Tolvanen and not Fabbro.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

poile should retire if he trades a 1st, tolvanen, and fabbro

Agree, that's an absurd ask. Again, who was the last player traded for a team's top prospect, let alone both of the top 2, rental or no?

 

[The List Of Jericho]

Matt Duchene is going, I think we all know this the question is where? To me the 2 teams that make the most sense are Calgary and Winnipeg he would make both those center cores ridiculous and at 28 he's got AT LEAST 5 years left in him and probably 6 or 7

I think Duchene is a great fit for either team.

Mod edit:







Going to make this a Duchene megathread.

Even if the return is decent which considering Duchene is a UFA it likely won’t be a ton, this is a huge disaster for the Senators.

 

[Sens Vader]

no to fiala. hartman possibly.

i don't see much use for ottawa with bonino considering age.

Just a stop gap center really

Kinda depends on if Duchene comes with a contract but if he does that 3rd piece has to hold good value.

 

[Ivan13]

it all comes down to your view of tolvanen.

i guarantee you no "prospect" has the ceiling or the potential he has league wide will be traded. unless stone goes.

tolvanen + 1st + prospect not named fabbro

that will be what gets it done or doesn't.

What is his ceiling? I mean I saw him in the KHL first hand and caught some games in the AHL and he seems like a guy who will be a journeyman that can get around 30+20 in his best season. The shot is elite, for sure, but the rest of the game leaves me wanting more. To me, he is a sweetener in the Duchene deal, not the main piece.

 

[BondraTime]

I don't expect Duchene would be better than Johansen. If he was, wow... that would be something. But I don't see anything in his history as a player to suggest that could be something to hope for. If he's about the same overall - totally different style of course - then I'd still be totally satisfied and happy to have him. Even if he was just a notch below Johansen that would be fine, he could still drive a powerful 2nd line, which is what we need.

If we had Stone too... well, that is too much to even dream about at this point.

I mean, he has 16 more goals and 5 more points in 10 less games played than Johansen this year, I'd say he's been the much better player.

 

[Armourboy]

Agreed. There is an argument to be made that if we add another top forward long-term then we can forego the wait on Tolvanen emerging as one. But Fabbro is too much a core part of our future planning. I think we have a spot right away for Fabbro next season, and we aren't acquiring anybody else to take that spot.

There is no way both of them move for sure, that is completely a non-starter. But if even one of them moves, it's going to be Tolvanen and not Fabbro.

Yeah I have a feeling we will be seeing one of the big 4 moved this summer.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

it all comes down to your view of tolvanen.

i guarantee you no "prospect" that has his ceiling or his potential (league wide opinion) will be traded. unless stone goes.

tolvanen + 1st + prospect not named fabbro

that will be what gets it done or doesn't.

I could also see a youngish roster player with cost control instead of extra prospect (e.g. Jarnkrok, Hartman). Not unusual in these types of trades.

 

[Armourboy]

What is his ceiling? I mean I saw him in the KHL first hand and caught some games in the AHL and he seems like a guy who will be a journeyman that can get around 30+20 in his best season. The shot is elite, for sure, but the rest of the game leaves me wanting more. To me, he is a sweetener in the Duchene deal, not the main piece.

Hard to say for sure but according to people that watch the Admirals every game, they seem to have him focusing on his entire game and less so on just scoring. He seems to be doing that and his scoring has been coming around as well. Also keep in mind, he ain't exactly playing with a ton of talent in Milwaukee either at this point.

 

[Agalloch]

Preds are all in this year. Tolvanen and a first for 'UFA' Duchene (more if he's signed).

 

[Armourboy]

Preds are all in this year. Tolvanen and a first for 'UFA' Duchene (more if he's signed).

There won't be more if he is signed. The deal will be done if he is signed, if he isn't Poile goes with another option.

There won't be a deal where Poile gives a 1st + Tolvanen if he isn't signed and 1st+Tolvanen + if he is. The deal will be 1st + Tolvanen + for a signed Duchene or he probably goes after someone like Zuccarello

 

[NoNecksCurse]

What is his ceiling? I mean I saw him in the KHL first hand and caught some games in the AHL and he seems like a guy who will be a journeyman that can get around 30+20 in his best season. The shot is elite, for sure, but the rest of the game leaves me wanting more. To me, he is a sweetener in the Duchene deal, not the main piece.

he's got a solid 2 way game. he's a safe bet for 25 goal scorer.

james neal comes to mind but a better 2 way game with underrated playmaking ability.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I mean, he has 16 more goals and 5 more points in 10 less games played than Johansen this year, I'd say he's been the much better player.

I can't accept "much"... there is no conversation which should go to extremes here. Johansen plays a heavier game and kills penalties and is a playmaker. Duchene is more dynamic and more of a scorer. They have different styles. It would suprise me - and please me - if Duchene could be better than Johansen. But I wouldn't make the deal expecting that, and I wouldn't be upset if ultimately Duchene couldn't make a case upon his arrival for being better. We don't need somebody better than Johansen anyway - the point is we need somebody better than Turris, and on that I can definitely agree that Duchene is "much" better than Turris. That's all that matters.

 

[triggrman]

I mean, he has 16 more goals and 5 more points in 10 less games played than Johansen this year, I'd say he's been the much better player.

meh, we play a system that utilizes our defensemen more than centers, which is why we have we routinely have 4 defensemen in the top 30 in scoring for defensemen. I'd bet Duchene's numbers here would likely go down.

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

poile should retire if he trades a 1st, tolvanen, and fabbro

I would fire Poile on the spot if he traded both Fabbro and Tolvanen for Duchene.

 

[JoemAvs]

poile should retire if he trades a 1st, tolvanen, and fabbro

Well thats the price of getting one of the higher scoring centers in the league for many years to come.

It also heavily depends on how much you value Tolvanen. IMO he has been a disappointment so far in North America. He still has a lot of value but nowhere close to what it was only maybe a year or so ago.

All in all I think Duchene will fetch something like 1st+ Fabbro(also not the biggest fan)/Tolvanen at the deadline given the year he is having and that NSH should have a very good chance of retaining him longterm.

If he even agrees to a SnT to facilitate the deal, I don't see why the other does not get added in.

Maybe the Sens have to throw in something else but a signed Duchene should get them something good just like a signed Turris got us Girard, Kamenev and a 2nd as part of a SnT.

 

[HSF]

That's an absurdly bad deal for the Senators.

as a sens fan that is not bad. We get a high end forward prospect and a 1st. I don't really care who the roster or ahl filler player is

 

[predfan24]

I mean, he has 16 more goals and 5 more points in 10 less games played than Johansen this year, I'd say he's been the much better player.

You can't use one season to compare two players. Both guys have been in the league for a good minute. There is plenty of data to compare. Joey is the better setup guy. Duchene is the better goalscorer. They are on the same tier. They are both low end 1Cs. That works fine for the Preds.

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

Well thats the price of getting one of the higher scoring centers in the league for many years to come.

It also heavily depends on how much you value Tolvanen. IMO he has been a disappointment so far in North America. He still has a lot of value but nowhere close to what it was only maybe a year or so ago.

All in all I think Duchene will fetch something like 1st+ Fabbro(also not the biggest fan)/Tolvanen at the deadline given the year he is having and that NSH should have a very good chance of retaining him longterm.

He will fetch one of Tolvanen/Fabbro but not both. That would completely wreck the farm system as those are the only 2 top tier prospects right now. If that's the price, I think Poile passes and re-evaluates this summer.

 

[Armourboy]

Well thats the price of getting one of the higher scoring centers in the league for many years to come.

It also heavily depends on how much you value Tolvanen. IMO he has been a disappointment so far in North America. He still has a lot of value but nowhere close to what it was only maybe a year or so ago.

All in all I think Duchene will fetch something like 1st+ Fabbro(also not the biggest fan)/Tolvanen at the deadline given the year he is having and that NSH should have a very good chance of retaining him longterm.

If he even agrees to a SnT to facilitate the deal, I don't see why the other does not get added in.

Maybe the Sens have to throw in something else but a signed Duchene should get them something good just like a signed Turris got us Girard, Kamenev and a 2nd as part of a SnT.

You aren't getting both Tolvanen and Fabbro, and no one else is going to give you their two best prospects and a 1st either.

Think about it, have you actually heard Fabbro's name come up in rumors involving Ottawa outside of fans on this site? There is a reason the answer is no.

 

[JoemAvs]

He will fetch one of Tolvanen/Fabbro but not both. That would completely wreck the farm system as those are the only 2 top tier prospects right now. If that's the price, I think Poile passes and re-evaluates this summer.

Well realistically the return for a SnT would probably be 1st+Tolvanen/Fabbro+ younger roster player in a sign and trade deal.

I am just not sure that the Sens would value a roster player coming back all that highly and I don't think Poile would love to give up a somewhat decent roster player in the midst of a playoff push so I could easily see him give up both instead.

We will see.
I just don't think that a signed Duchene on pace for 90points+ will be available for a late 1st + a non-blue chip prospect.
I believe there would be something else of decent value to be thrown in.


@Armourboy:

I am not a Sens fan. I am an Avs fan. So ultimately I don't really care what the return ends up. I just believe that in the unlikely event that it turns out to be a SnT, the ballgame changes completely valuewise.

Just like it did for Turris. Or did anyone believe that a rental Turris was worth Girard, Kamenev + 2nd?
Not even close...

 

[Soundgarden]

Any time a team is heavily rumored (like Nashville and Columbus were last year for Duchene) it hardly ever happens. Like last time, a surprise team will likely come and swoop him up and everyone gets surprised.

I'll say Boston.

Really? Anytime Nashville is heavily rumored to target someone they tend to get him. Johansen, Fisher, Turris were all like this. Hell, I thought Simmonds would be this year's obvious acquisition. I think Duchene to Nashville is a foregone conclusion.