Confirmed with Link: Trade: Pierre-Luc Dubois to Washington for Darcy Kuemper… the trade is one for one

[Todd Lazarchick]

Didn't you want Marner?

He’s not my first, second, third or fourth choice. But I can be sold on overpaying a 100pt player vs saddling yourself to one of the worst contracts and players in the game. Come on now lol

 

[Kudelski37]

I'm a Kings fan first and a Caps fan second. I think both fans bases are delusional in thinking they got an NHL player.

PLD is Albert Haynesworth on skates.

His best skill is tipping shots from the point, but he is no where near as good as Oshie at this. Based on his time in Winnipeg he scored most of his goals on tips or uncovered on backdoor plays on the power play. The latter may fit well with OV. However, any decent coach will have his pk funnel the puck to make PLD the puck handler and this will kill the possession.

PLD, despite the inflated hit stats, is not physical at all. He struggles to put passes where they need to be for one timers and odd man breaks. Pucks are either well behind, in front, or just too late when the defense has had time to move to the once open player. He rarely beats goalies with his shot if they are set to him. He doesn't play defense. He doesn't win foot races. He doesn't win board battles. He gets knocked off the puck by much smaller guys. He is slow to learn how new coaches do things. He simply played like an overmatched, nervous rookie.

I hope both players do well, but I do not expect it.

 

[badi]

So at center
Strome
PLD
Mcmichael
Lapierre
Something else might happen …..

 

[Roshi]

So at center
Strome
PLD
Mcmichael
Lapierre
Something else might happen …..

& Dowd
And Protas

 

[twabby]

Overall his impacts have been good throughout his career. But a large portion of his GAR impacts come from his power play impacts and at 5v5 he's been mediocre. He's only scored more than 2 points/60 at 5v5 once in his career. His 5v5 production is more like a middle 6 dude and he's not good defensively.

I think best case scenario is that he turns into a 2C who produces on the PP. Worst case is Kuznetsov toward the end of his time in DC. I don't see a world where he turns into a true 1C/1LW but I do see a world where he becomes unplayable if his maturity issues drag down his play.

The cap hit is bad and while it impacts the Capitals less than other teams there are still big risks. They have less cap space to take on bad contracts for assets. It also means less space for more impactful talents they may want to sign in UFA.

I'm leaning toward this being a bad trade. I don't really see big upside, but I do see the potential for big downside. It'll probably be somewhere in the middle. Maybe he helps the power play but I don't see a 5v5 driver. I didn't think they needed to go after PLD, and I didn't see a huge need to get rid of Kuemper. Would have rather seen them take a run at Marner or Guentzel who both have much bigger upsides and really wouldn't have cost much more against the cap. I guess they still could but seems less likely now.

 

[g00n]

He’s not my first, second, third or fourth choice. But I can be sold on overpaying a 100pt player vs saddling yourself to one of the worst contracts and players in the game. Come on now lol

If you're going to snort at people calling PLD a 30g player because he hasn't technically hit 30g then you also can't call Marner a 100pt player for the same reason.

 

[Ovie's Neighbor]

If you're going to snort at people calling PLD a 30g player because he hasn't technically hit 30g then you also can't call Marner a 100pt player for the same reason.

Agreed but also let’s not pretend PLD is as good as Marner. I would take Marner and his slightly higher cap hit over PLD any day.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Let’s address this as well. This is one of the very first moves of the off-season. It’s not like sometimes when there is a bad trade if you even consider this that at the trade deadline when the clocks out and rosters are locked, we have a full off-season still, and tons of cap space a draft and free agency still to construct the roster.

If this is our final product roster all this bitching, I’ll accept, but I think the roster is far from done.

 

[Misery74]

Agreed but also let’s not pretend PLD is as good as Marner. I would take Marner and his slightly higher cap hit over PLD any day.

Marner is a year from UFA. His cap hit is/will be substantially larger.

Marner costs real assets.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Marner is a year from UFA. His cap hit is/will be substantially larger.

Marner costs real assets.

Marner looks like he’s staying a leaf. That was a pipe dream.

 

[Caps8112]

I'm a Kings fan first and a Caps fan second. I think both fans bases are delusional in thinking they got an NHL player.

PLD is Albert Haynesworth on skates.

His best skill is tipping shots from the point, but he is no where near as good as Oshie at this. Based on his time in Winnipeg he scored most of his goals on tips or uncovered on backdoor plays on the power play. The latter may fit well with OV. However, any decent coach will have his pk funnel the puck to make PLD the puck handler and this will kill the possession.

PLD, despite the inflated hit stats, is not physical at all. He struggles to put passes where they need to be for one timers and odd man breaks. Pucks are either well behind, in front, or just too late when the defense has had time to move to the once open player. He rarely beats goalies with his shot if they are set to him. He doesn't play defense. He doesn't win foot races. He doesn't win board battles. He gets knocked off the puck by much smaller guys. He is slow to learn how new coaches do things. He simply played like an overmatched, nervous rookie.

I hope both players do well, but I do not expect it.

sounds grim

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I feel like overly negative Kings fans should be taken pretty lightly in terms of opinions right now.

They paid a hefty price for this guy and had to take on a bad (right now) goalie contract to get rid of him. They're feeling pretty burned right about now. The anger we felt about Kuzy at times....they're feeling quite a bit worse given the total cost in assets and $ and they only dealt with the guy for a year.

In terms of taking runs at Marner or Guentzel, I think we will take a run at JG, but I also suspect he will ultimately go to a much better (playoff) team. I don't believe we have any chance of landing Marner (or any other top-tier players) with the assets we have to offer, assuming Leonard is off the table as he should be.

On PLD, I feel resigned to the fact that we are just very desperate and had very few options. I don't really want to overpay for an old UFA on a career/contract year, and at least this dude is 25, and still young enough to make measurable changes to himself as a professional athlete.

It's on Carbs (and the room) now to turn this guy around and get some buy in.

For now, I'll stay positive, have some hope and wait for some more roster shaping moves.

 

[The Consiglieri]

Whatever, if he can become a consistent 25G/35A to 30G/40A guy and not cause problems I'll love this deal. The money doesn't even really matter the more I think about it. In two years when 8 retires it's going to be a dumpster fire looking to hit the cap floor anyways. And great news for him, #18 is available!

I'm trying to simply figure out what this means for the organization. They appeared to begin the rebuilding process multiple years too late to do an effective tear down that would get them picks and prospects for the last years of the core from the '09-'18 era, so a rebuild that might have been shorter turned into a guaranteed dumpster fire the second Ovy gets the points record. They did a nice job selling at the '23 deadline, and a reasonable job selling at the '24 deadline to recoup some picks to stock the system but its worth remembering that pre-Leonard pick from'24, this farm system was typically ranked 23rd-26th in the league (so 25th-30th percentile in quality at best), and after its still ranked in the bottom 12 to bottom 8 of the league by most. Now add in that the team itself in SRS was bottom 6th in the league and basically made the playoffs due to randomness rather than talent last year. They were basically somewhere between 18th and 26th best in the league last year and on a "getting worse as they age out" trajectory rather than better.

So to me, I'm simply trying to figure out if it matters that his contract sucks. The rebuild we commence from will take FOREVER. Much like the current Wiz rebuild. We lack the farm system and the young talent at the nhl level, and the assets anyone would want to trade for to cut years off the 5+ year hellscape in our future. So maybe this ends up like the aughts where they did their sell off in '02, were accidentally competitive in '03, and then finally fell apart in '03-'04, and spent 4 years in hell before making their first of a decades worth of runs in '07-'08. This will clearly take longer than that, and does it matter that we're on the hook for another 7 years of a crap contract when we are headed straight into the toilet right now regardless of the trade? I have no idea. I would just prefer to know why we did this? Are they trying to accelerate Ovy reaching the record process w/a decent center, are we just trying to fix a major center issue now, to simplify our future draft processes? What are we doing? Are they delusional about what the next 5 years look like or rational? I can't answer that, I can't figure out what they are doing. The only solace I take is that they've used the past two trade deadlines properly to try and rebuild the farm. I would love to get inside the head of the idiot owner and the GM to figure out if they're just another iteration of the stupidity of the Wiz brass that ruined their ability to rebuild properly '19-'23, or if they know they're screwed, and fully intend to fix this over the long term w/o quick fix stupidity and wastes on hopeless and pointless playoff chasing trades.

 

[Kudelski37]

sounds grim

He played his way off pp1 and an even strength line with Fiala (145 points in 151 games with LA). He struggled with virtually every line combo. Every player played better away from PLD. They tried him at different spots on the power play. The only thing the Kings didn't do was try him at wing and scratch him. He split time between center and wing in Winnipeg. He might find some success moving back to wing.

 

[ovikovy817]

I’m on record saying that I didn’t want PLD and that I was nervous giving up Darcy based on one good season from Chuckie. But here we are.

I do like the one-for-one nature of this deal. Protecting the nuts while getting any kind of top 6 C talent is an accomplishment.

I also don’t think that PLD’s contract is all that much of a catastrophe even if he doesn’t excel. The full NMC is only the next 4 years, and for three of those his net cap effect is like $3.5M as others have pointed out. Plus, by year four, will $8.5M even be all that much anymore as a share of the cap? Maybe, but maybe not. Surely the Caps and their fancy new cap crew have done the math and think they can eat it if they have to.

So I guess we’ll see. I don’t hate it as much as I expected too when I first saw the news. Here’s hoping Dubois thrives in DC.

Yes, the same. I don't think/feel that Chuckie is a number 1 goalie on a contender / PO team.
But the Caps are far away from that position.

What's the depth chart ?
Lindgren
Shepard
?
?

Do Caps draft a goalie this summer?

 

[max21]

I’m cautiously optimistic, we just went through the “we can fix him” phase with Kuznetsov and even Mantha for years. If you think about 5.5 sitting on the bench and offset the numbers it’s not that bad. I hope we see some other moves, this one is certainly a roll of the dice with the odds against us.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

After reading all the threads on PLD I dont know if we ever traded for a more hated player. If I was coach I would use this to motivate him. He has to have some pride left.

 

[Ovie's Neighbor]

I'm trying to simply figure out what this means for the organization. They appeared to begin the rebuilding process multiple years too late to do an effective tear down that would get them picks and prospects for the last years of the core from the '09-'18 era, so a rebuild that might have been shorter turned into a guaranteed dumpster fire the second Ovy gets the points record. They did a nice job selling at the '23 deadline, and a reasonable job selling at the '24 deadline to recoup some picks to stock the system but its worth remembering that pre-Leonard pick from'24, this farm system was typically ranked 23rd-26th in the league (so 25th-30th percentile in quality at best), and after its still ranked in the bottom 12 to bottom 8 of the league by most. Now add in that the team itself in SRS was bottom 6th in the league and basically made the playoffs due to randomness rather than talent last year. They were basically somewhere between 18th and 26th best in the league last year and on a "getting worse as they age out" trajectory rather than better.

So to me, I'm simply trying to figure out if it matters that his contract sucks. The rebuild we commence from will take FOREVER. Much like the current Wiz rebuild. We lack the farm system and the young talent at the nhl level, and the assets anyone would want to trade for to cut years off the 5+ year hellscape in our future. So maybe this ends up like the aughts where they did their sell off in '02, were accidentally competitive in '03, and then finally fell apart in '03-'04, and spent 4 years in hell before making their first of a decades worth of runs in '07-'08. This will clearly take longer than that, and does it matter that we're on the hook for another 7 years of a crap contract when we are headed straight into the toilet right now regardless of the trade? I have no idea. I would just prefer to know why we did this? Are they trying to accelerate Ovy reaching the record process w/a decent center, are we just trying to fix a major center issue now, to simplify our future draft processes? What are we doing? Are they delusional about what the next 5 years look like or rational? I can't answer that, I can't figure out what they are doing. The only solace I take is that they've used the past two trade deadlines properly to try and rebuild the farm. I would love to get inside the head of the idiot owner and the GM to figure out if they're just another iteration of the stupidity of the Wiz brass that ruined their ability to rebuild properly '19-'23, or if they know they're screwed, and fully intend to fix this over the long term w/o quick fix stupidity and wastes on hopeless and pointless playoff chasing trades.

Right that is my concern. If this goes bad then we go from a 2-3 year rebuild to potentially a really long period of obscurity. I mean the Kings are in a similar boat and trying to rebuild their team and they got rid of him right away.

 

[Neil Racki]

ONly got thru reading first 2 pages .. got a deadline soon

Did he not have a NTC this year but has one kick in for the remainder of the contract?

We cannot move him at all without waiver?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Right that is my concern. If this goes bad then we go from a 2-3 year rebuild to potentially a really long period of obscurity. I mean the Kings are in a similar boat and trying to rebuild their team and they got rid of him right away.

I dont think we have a vision in place after 895. Which is prob when we get his real salary cap hit of 8.5.
I would have done things differently but why are we so worried about cap space in 2030?

ONly got thru reading first 2 pages .. got a deadline soon

Did he not have a NTC this year but has one kick in for the remainder of the contract?

We cannot move him at all without waiver?

Correct it kicks in july 1. Thats why we got him for free/salary dump.

 

[Misery74]

I'm trying to simply figure out what this means for the organization. They appeared to begin the rebuilding process multiple years too late to do an effective tear down that would get them picks and prospects for the last years of the core from the '09-'18 era, so a rebuild that might have been shorter turned into a guaranteed dumpster fire the second Ovy gets the points record. They did a nice job selling at the '23 deadline, and a reasonable job selling at the '24 deadline to recoup some picks to stock the system but its worth remembering that pre-Leonard pick from'24, this farm system was typically ranked 23rd-26th in the league (so 25th-30th percentile in quality at best), and after its still ranked in the bottom 12 to bottom 8 of the league by most. Now add in that the team itself in SRS was bottom 6th in the league and basically made the playoffs due to randomness rather than talent last year. They were basically somewhere between 18th and 26th best in the league last year and on a "getting worse as they age out" trajectory rather than better.

So to me, I'm simply trying to figure out if it matters that his contract sucks. The rebuild we commence from will take FOREVER. Much like the current Wiz rebuild. We lack the farm system and the young talent at the nhl level, and the assets anyone would want to trade for to cut years off the 5+ year hellscape in our future. So maybe this ends up like the aughts where they did their sell off in '02, were accidentally competitive in '03, and then finally fell apart in '03-'04, and spent 4 years in hell before making their first of a decades worth of runs in '07-'08. This will clearly take longer than that, and does it matter that we're on the hook for another 7 years of a crap contract when we are headed straight into the toilet right now regardless of the trade? I have no idea. I would just prefer to know why we did this? Are they trying to accelerate Ovy reaching the record process w/a decent center, are we just trying to fix a major center issue now, to simplify our future draft processes? What are we doing? Are they delusional about what the next 5 years look like or rational? I can't answer that, I can't figure out what they are doing. The only solace I take is that they've used the past two trade deadlines properly to try and rebuild the farm. I would love to get inside the head of the idiot owner and the GM to figure out if they're just another iteration of the stupidity of the Wiz brass that ruined their ability to rebuild properly '19-'23, or if they know they're screwed, and fully intend to fix this over the long term w/o quick fix stupidity and wastes on hopeless and pointless playoff chasing trades.

We have the 14th rated farm system. Top half.

 

[kingbrath]

i don't think motivation is going to be an issue

Then you haven't seen him play....

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

If you're going to snort at people calling PLD a 30g player because he hasn't technically hit 30g then you also can't call Marner a 100pt player for the same reason.

You’re correct. I’ll edit. You can sell me on a 97/99/85 point guy vs a……28 pt guy

Marner is a year from UFA. His cap hit is/will be substantially larger.

Marner costs real assets.

Because he’s a real player. Not an albatross

 

[Todd Lazarchick]

I'm trying to simply figure out what this means for the organization. They appeared to begin the rebuilding process multiple years too late to do an effective tear down that would get them picks and prospects for the last years of the core from the '09-'18 era, so a rebuild that might have been shorter turned into a guaranteed dumpster fire the second Ovy gets the points record. They did a nice job selling at the '23 deadline, and a reasonable job selling at the '24 deadline to recoup some picks to stock the system but its worth remembering that pre-Leonard pick from'24, this farm system was typically ranked 23rd-26th in the league (so 25th-30th percentile in quality at best), and after its still ranked in the bottom 12 to bottom 8 of the league by most. Now add in that the team itself in SRS was bottom 6th in the league and basically made the playoffs due to randomness rather than talent last year. They were basically somewhere between 18th and 26th best in the league last year and on a "getting worse as they age out" trajectory rather than better.

So to me, I'm simply trying to figure out if it matters that his contract sucks. The rebuild we commence from will take FOREVER. Much like the current Wiz rebuild. We lack the farm system and the young talent at the nhl level, and the assets anyone would want to trade for to cut years off the 5+ year hellscape in our future. So maybe this ends up like the aughts where they did their sell off in '02, were accidentally competitive in '03, and then finally fell apart in '03-'04, and spent 4 years in hell before making their first of a decades worth of runs in '07-'08. This will clearly take longer than that, and does it matter that we're on the hook for another 7 years of a crap contract when we are headed straight into the toilet right now regardless of the trade? I have no idea. I would just prefer to know why we did this? Are they trying to accelerate Ovy reaching the record process w/a decent center, are we just trying to fix a major center issue now, to simplify our future draft processes? What are we doing? Are they delusional about what the next 5 years look like or rational? I can't answer that, I can't figure out what they are doing. The only solace I take is that they've used the past two trade deadlines properly to try and rebuild the farm. I would love to get inside the head of the idiot owner and the GM to figure out if they're just another iteration of the stupidity of the Wiz brass that ruined their ability to rebuild properly '19-'23, or if they know they're screwed, and fully intend to fix this over the long term w/o quick fix stupidity and wastes on hopeless and pointless playoff chasing trades.

This is exactly my point. GMBM has no direction for this team. If you want to improve the team then actually improve the effing team. If you want to tank then tank. This consistent “what are we” meddling is infuriating. His constant move is we hope to strike lighting in a bottle. There’s no denying PLD has talent. But you’re now saying no we will be the ones to figure him out. All while they aren’t good enough to win or bad enough to tank.

 

[Kalopsia]

The simplest way to frame this is - identify 18 centers who you think will pass him in the next 3-4 years (16 + Crosby and Tavares expiring contracts ahead of him). Remember that Hughes, Thomas, Thompson, Suzuki, Norris, Stutzle, Hintz, Aho, Pettersson, Larkin, and Circelli already have contracts that last until 2030 or later.

UFAs: Lindholm probably gets more than 8.5M this summer cause you know there's gonna be a bidding war for him. Slim chance for Duchene and Stamkos too, though they're not necessarily centers at this stage. In 2025 Crosby definitely would still get over 8.5M on the open market but who knows if he takes a discount, and Nelson and Tavares both could if they have strong seasons and the cap goes up as expected. Maybe even Bennett. In 2026, I could see Malkin or Kopitar getting 8.5M if they decide to stop taking hometown discounts. In 2027 you'll have Hischier for sure, and I think O'Reilly, McCann, Karlsson, Zacha, and Danault all have the potential to get an 8.5M contract. If the cap keeps going up by about 4M per year, which is what's projected from what I've read, the cap is going to be 100M by this point, so an 8.5M contract that offseason will be the equivalent to 7.1M this past season.

RFAs: This is a lot harder to project because it all depends on who takes short term bridge deals, who takes mid-term bridge deals that carry them straight to UFA, and who commits to long term deals. For this year, I think Byfield, Mittlestadt, Perfetti, Beniers, Lundell, Sillinger, Mercer, and Pinto could all be at 8.5 within 3-4 years if they go for short term bridge deals this offseason, play well the next two years, then cash in afterwards. Some of those are more likely than others, but they all have the capacity to have breakout years if they haven't had them already. Necas could get it if a team acquires him to play center, gives him a short term deal, and he does well there. Jarvis could get it if a team offer sheets him and decides to move him back to his natural position. Next summer Wyatt Johnson seems like a shoe-in if he doesn't get a short bridge deal, and Kurashev, McTavish, and Rossi are possibilities for that year with a breakout or two years later if they take short bridges that year. In 2026 Bedard and Zegras should get massive raises, and Cooley, Carlsson, and Fantilli are possibilities. In 2027 we're going totally off projection, but maybe Shane Wright's broken out by then, and if Celebrini lives up to the hype he could be in for a big contract.

If I counted correctly that's 31 names that have at least a chance of getting 8.5M in the next 4 years. There's probably a few guys who'll come out of nowhere to break out or move to center over the next couple years too. It's impossible to say exactly how likely it is that PLD's outside the top 30 in four years, but it doesn't seem farfetched to me.