Silky mitts
It’s yours boys and girls and babes let’s go!
- Mar 9, 2004
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Confirmed with Link: Trade: Pierre-Luc Dubois to Washington for Darcy Kuemper… the trade is one for one
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TheSmokingMan
Registered User
He's a shitbum, but now he's our shitbum, so I'm going to try and look on the positive side of this.
*Puts on positivity hat*
Let's assume the best case scenario and PLD returns to his 60+ point form *crosses fingers*. He helps to fill a HUGE hole as a playmaking top 6 center that the Caps have desperately needed for a while. On top of that we would have him signed for the entire prime of his career. If he performs, that contract will actually start to look pretty good. Especially when we see the eye-watering amounts of money and term that this summers lackluster UFA's and RFA's are going to get. And we basically got him for spare parts.
The more likely outcome, unfortunately, is that he turns out to be Anthony Mantha 2.0. And we'll most likely be stuck with him until at least 2028-29 when his NMC turns into a M-NTC. There's a reason why LAK were so willing to make this trade instead of sticking it out and giving him an opportunity to bounce back. They looked at the odds of a turn-around season and decided to fold.
From GMBM's perspective, the Keumper money for the next 3 years was dead money anyways, so why not spend a little more and get an opportunity to fix the biggest deficit on the team. The problem really only comes in years 4-7 where this could become an albatross contract on the cap. I guess time will tell.
Anybody got any links to PLD highlight videos? I haven't had the opportunity to see too much of him and it would be nice to get a better look.
*Puts on positivity hat*
Let's assume the best case scenario and PLD returns to his 60+ point form *crosses fingers*. He helps to fill a HUGE hole as a playmaking top 6 center that the Caps have desperately needed for a while. On top of that we would have him signed for the entire prime of his career. If he performs, that contract will actually start to look pretty good. Especially when we see the eye-watering amounts of money and term that this summers lackluster UFA's and RFA's are going to get. And we basically got him for spare parts.
The more likely outcome, unfortunately, is that he turns out to be Anthony Mantha 2.0. And we'll most likely be stuck with him until at least 2028-29 when his NMC turns into a M-NTC. There's a reason why LAK were so willing to make this trade instead of sticking it out and giving him an opportunity to bounce back. They looked at the odds of a turn-around season and decided to fold.
From GMBM's perspective, the Keumper money for the next 3 years was dead money anyways, so why not spend a little more and get an opportunity to fix the biggest deficit on the team. The problem really only comes in years 4-7 where this could become an albatross contract on the cap. I guess time will tell.
Anybody got any links to PLD highlight videos? I haven't had the opportunity to see too much of him and it would be nice to get a better look.
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TheSmokingMan
Registered User
He made a nice power move to the net on one of those goals. Seems to have a good snapshot and quick hands at the bottom of the circles and in tight. I think he will help us on the powerplay. He didn't seem to get very excited when he scored, though. Not sure if he's showing apathy or stoicism.
I'd like to see some of his playmaking ability, since that is the biggest deficit on the Caps, currently.
trick9
Registered User
- Jun 2, 2013
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He's a big center. The most valuable thing in the NHL. All they need is another ~30+30 kind of season (he has 2 in the last 3 seasons) and he's back to having great trade value. This is why he returned a great package only a year ago. If this was a league where GM's learned from their mistakes, i would be more worried. It's not. One good season and all the problems are quickly forgotten. But this is a gambler's choice. GMBM gambled with Kuemper after his eye injury and that backfired. He was never close to the same he was before that. In today, he was borderline un-playable. But GMBM now got rid of that problem to replace him with another problem, which is a huge gamble from him. If this doesn't work, that's mistake that gets you fired. All that money from the owner.
Like i said, i don't mind this gamble. It's not my money. I would have wished they would have spent the cap space better, but if they had even a shred of a chance to land a free agent like Reinhart or Guentzel, this move wouldn't have happened. But this isn't exactly a great free agent landing spot, given the rebuild is coming.
The way i look at this is: Kuemper had a huge cap hit. Cap difference between Dubois and Kuemper is ~3.3 million for the next 3 years. That's not bad, given Kuemper seems all but done. But if this backfires? It's going to make our rebuild drag longer before we are back to being a legit contender. Years 4-7 are absolutely brutal if PLD doesn't rebound, because those are the years where Kuemper -contract would have been off the books.
Like i said, i don't mind this gamble. It's not my money. I would have wished they would have spent the cap space better, but if they had even a shred of a chance to land a free agent like Reinhart or Guentzel, this move wouldn't have happened. But this isn't exactly a great free agent landing spot, given the rebuild is coming.
The way i look at this is: Kuemper had a huge cap hit. Cap difference between Dubois and Kuemper is ~3.3 million for the next 3 years. That's not bad, given Kuemper seems all but done. But if this backfires? It's going to make our rebuild drag longer before we are back to being a legit contender. Years 4-7 are absolutely brutal if PLD doesn't rebound, because those are the years where Kuemper -contract would have been off the books.
PlushMinus
Registered User
- Nov 18, 2021
- 2,003
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Perhaps, but he was in a locker room with Kopitar, Doughty and Trevor Lewis - who have all won 2 Cups, and it didn't seem to inspire him.
It is basically impossible to call PLD anything other than a total wildcard UNTIL he hits the ice and proves otherwise.
I can see how people are applying some logic and saying it"s 3.25 mill for 3 seasons which could be an absolute win if we get a 1C.
But I can also see that it will be a very expensive mistake if it doesn't pan out and we will be stuck with him well beyond 3 years.
The front office are also counting on Lindgren to continue his stellar effort, this time as a bonafide starter, with no proven backup. If that goes bad then what happens? They play out the season with poor goaltending?? Or they have to go and trade for a semi-decent stop gap goalie, which will cost them a pick or a player etc in return.
It is indeed a gamble. And for sure an interesting trade. Can't wait to see how this plays out
Hivemind
We're Touched
He was an RFA when he was traded a year ago. The acquiring GM had flexibility to sign him to the type of deal they wanted. So there was both team control and cap flexibility involved when acquiring him. Blake then went and signed him to an absurd contract that used better players like Robert Thomas, Tim Stutzle, Jack Hughes, and Roope Hintz as its comparables. It's the contract that tanks his value far more than his poor season, and that contract doesn't go away after another 60point season. The poor season is just salt in the wound.
Ovechkins Wodka
Registered User
Well, let’s hope PLD has some fight in him. 90% of hockey internet thinks he’s a washed up loser that shouldn’t even think of playing hockey again because another GMs contract.
Hopefully Dubois can return to his best. We got rid of an expensive second goalie and take a big risk with a long contract. We have the cap space to take the chance on him so this could be a good move.
Worked with the last C the rest of the league had given up on in Strome which we got for free. He had two 60 points season in Winnipeg. Didnt work out in LA, but that was only one season and he is still 25. If he is a better fit with us and motivated he could be a steal aswell.
For the next three years I believe Dubois would be worth 3,25 mill if you look at the difference from Kuemper and Dubois. So he wil be a net positive the next three years if you look at it that way as Kuemper is a cap dump. The Caps take on the bigger risk with the length of the contract, but have better potential reward.
Worked with the last C the rest of the league had given up on in Strome which we got for free. He had two 60 points season in Winnipeg. Didnt work out in LA, but that was only one season and he is still 25. If he is a better fit with us and motivated he could be a steal aswell.
For the next three years I believe Dubois would be worth 3,25 mill if you look at the difference from Kuemper and Dubois. So he wil be a net positive the next three years if you look at it that way as Kuemper is a cap dump. The Caps take on the bigger risk with the length of the contract, but have better potential reward.
Still having trouble forming an opinion on this one but reaction skews negative. Ultimately I think this accelerates the team’s trajectory, I’m just not sure if it accelerates the trajectory towards contention or a painful rebuild.
Yeah he should be closer to the 6-7 mill range based on what he delievered in Winnipeg. Hughes and Stutzle where young and signed early and are on very good deals and where very likely to grow a lot after what they had showed.
If he returns to a 60 point player he would be worth it for us. I believe he will be a better fit for us as we have space on the PP for him. Thats a big reason for his drop in production. 8 PP points in LAK vs 23 and 19 in the last two with Winnipeg. Also had 3 minutes less pr game in LAK. So he should be close to 60 points with us if he plays on PP1 and gets around 18-19 min pr game.
Calicaps
NFA
I’m on record saying that I didn’t want PLD and that I was nervous giving up Darcy based on one good season from Chuckie. But here we are.
I do like the one-for-one nature of this deal. Protecting the nuts while getting any kind of top 6 talent is an accomplishment.
I also don’t think that PLD’s contract is all that much of a catastrophe even if he doesn’t excel. The full NMC is only the next 4 years, and for three of those his net cap effect is like $3.5M as others have pointed out. Plus, by year four, will $8.5M even be all that much anymore as a share of the cap? Maybe, but maybe not. Surely the Caps and their fancy new cap crew have done the math and think they can eat it if they have to.
So I guess we’ll see. I don’t hate it as much as I expected to when I first saw the news. Here’s hoping Dubois thrives in DC.
I do like the one-for-one nature of this deal. Protecting the nuts while getting any kind of top 6 talent is an accomplishment.
I also don’t think that PLD’s contract is all that much of a catastrophe even if he doesn’t excel. The full NMC is only the next 4 years, and for three of those his net cap effect is like $3.5M as others have pointed out. Plus, by year four, will $8.5M even be all that much anymore as a share of the cap? Maybe, but maybe not. Surely the Caps and their fancy new cap crew have done the math and think they can eat it if they have to.
So I guess we’ll see. I don’t hate it as much as I expected to when I first saw the news. Here’s hoping Dubois thrives in DC.
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At least we are in a place where we can take the risk. We got rid of another bad contract and we have a lot of cap space (Kuznetsov, Oshie and Backstrom next year then Ovi, Carlson, Jensen and TVR the year after) going forward to sign our own guys and look for UFA's or trades.
The contract will also take less of the % as the year goes. For the next three years it is 3,25 more than Kuemper which would have been a backup perhaps being passed by Hunter or Stephenson. After those 3 years the salary cap might be close to 100 millions. Which takes his current 9,7 % to 8,5 % of the cap. By the end of the contract he could be at around 7 %. Which is around where Wilson and Oshie are now.
So the contract isnt as bad as long as we have a rising cap it should be okay. As players around his calibre signing new deals will get close to what he makes when the cap goes 100 million +.
Ovechkins Wodka
Registered User
No one wanted PLD. That’s why we got him for free plus cap dump. We had the money to spend
Or you can criticize him for single-handedly tying your team to a boat anchor for 7 effing years
g00n
Retired Global Mod
- Nov 22, 2007
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If the GMBM haters (who seem to believe they'd be better NHL GMs) are complaining about getting rid of headcases and not taking on any new ones then why were they all so mad about Vrana being dealt, critical of Kuzy being "run out of town" according to some, and so hyped to nab Marner who also has a shit reputation?
People may not realize this, and maybe I'm a fool for only looking at the stats, but other than last year's "f*** this team" season PLD had been very close to Marner in points, while playing in WPG vs Marner's time with a high-powered TML offense.
In an alternate timeline, if we'd gotten Marner for a shitload more money and handcuffed ourselves against the cap during Ovie's last years and a rebuild, their dopplegangers would be calling for GMBM's head while saying "for less money we could've just traded Kuemper for PLD".
Not that I'm prognosticating that this will work. It might fail miserably. In which case I think GMBM is on the hot seat, especially if he's done his ACTUAL job to completion, which is not to win Cups but get Ovie over the line(s) and into the next phase while "remaining competitive".
The x-factor in all this is Carbery. I don't know if he actually used a jedi mind trick on Mantha or if it was just the simple motivation of a contract year. His sample size in LV was only 18 regular season games (and 3 playoff games of 0 points and eventually a healthy scratch) but his point production dropped down even BELOW his previous career levels, whereas he was humming along at a ~30G pace under Carbery. So coaching may have mattered there and not just money.
If that's the case then PLD could rebound from a bad season and find new life. If prices for top 6 ceners (which GMBM has been hunting for YEARS) keep rising and the cap continues to go up at the current pace, this might not be that bad of a contract, at least until the M-NTC kicks in as @TheSmokingMan mentioned. IMO that's a key point. GMBM is fully aware of that and rarely gives anyone more than 5 years of safety in his budgeting.
I also appreciate the ability to abbreviate to PLD, which make the next few years much easier.
So it's TBD on PLD.
People may not realize this, and maybe I'm a fool for only looking at the stats, but other than last year's "f*** this team" season PLD had been very close to Marner in points, while playing in WPG vs Marner's time with a high-powered TML offense.
In an alternate timeline, if we'd gotten Marner for a shitload more money and handcuffed ourselves against the cap during Ovie's last years and a rebuild, their dopplegangers would be calling for GMBM's head while saying "for less money we could've just traded Kuemper for PLD".
Not that I'm prognosticating that this will work. It might fail miserably. In which case I think GMBM is on the hot seat, especially if he's done his ACTUAL job to completion, which is not to win Cups but get Ovie over the line(s) and into the next phase while "remaining competitive".
The x-factor in all this is Carbery. I don't know if he actually used a jedi mind trick on Mantha or if it was just the simple motivation of a contract year. His sample size in LV was only 18 regular season games (and 3 playoff games of 0 points and eventually a healthy scratch) but his point production dropped down even BELOW his previous career levels, whereas he was humming along at a ~30G pace under Carbery. So coaching may have mattered there and not just money.
If that's the case then PLD could rebound from a bad season and find new life. If prices for top 6 ceners (which GMBM has been hunting for YEARS) keep rising and the cap continues to go up at the current pace, this might not be that bad of a contract, at least until the M-NTC kicks in as @TheSmokingMan mentioned. IMO that's a key point. GMBM is fully aware of that and rarely gives anyone more than 5 years of safety in his budgeting.
I also appreciate the ability to abbreviate to PLD, which make the next few years much easier.
So it's TBD on PLD.
This pretty well summarises how I feel.
We are always talking about swinging for the fences with our middling draft picks, well this is certainly that. In BMAC I trust. I'm all for having a crack.
If we were to now add a top 6 winger or a top D, suddenly we have something to work with. Maybe not a genuine contender, but we might be a puncher's chance if everything clicked. I'd rather that than not being good enough to make a dent in the playoffs, and not bad enough to secure top end draft talent.
CMM and our first should be in play to add further.
g00n
Retired Global Mod
- Nov 22, 2007
- 31,235
- 15,798
Just watched as well. Goes to the net. Almost seems to want to sneak in there on the weak side. Quick release/reaction/hands.
WC players are harder for me to judge because I rarely see those teams, but he's obviously got scoring talent and I would guess maybe his "lack of defense" is because he might be looking to get to the net/slot more than hang back and be a 3rd D-man.
If he can play within a system that allows for both things could get interesting. Agree on the PP, and can probably play the bumper or Backstrom's old position, as he seemed to have scoring touch on that side.
Or maybe, JUST MAYBE, you add players to the team that aren’t headcases or contract nightmares or loafers or soft. It’s a wild concept I know!
trick9
Registered User
- Jun 2, 2013
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g00n
Retired Global Mod
- Nov 22, 2007
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Darcy Kuemper for Pierre-Luc Dubois trade ‘would make some sense’ for both Capitals and Kings
Capitals' general manager Brian MacLellan shared on Breakdown Day that he believes Darcy Kuemper will "have a good year next year", signaling…
russianmachineneverbreaks.com
Flashback to early last month. Apparently there was fire behind this smoke.
Yes those guys are always available. The team you run is sure to win the Cup next season. And the next.
I feel like most of the words I'd say have been said already. It's a gamble, but as with most BMac moves, you understand the rationale behind the move. If it works 33% of the time, I think you call it a successful trade.
One challenge to the doubters - if he puts up similar production to Kuznetsov over the same age period, would you consider the deal a win or a loss. [For reference, age-26 Kuznetsov 72 points in 76 games, age-27 52 points in 63 games, 29 points in 41 games, 78 points in 79 games, 55 points in 81 games, before the 17 points in 43 games that lead to his trade (total 303 points in 383 games, 0.80 PPG).] I'm just trying to get a sense of what level of production over the first 4-5 years of the Dubois contract people would consider a success. Is it as little as 75% of the Kuznetsov baseline, or more? Dubois' 2 successful years in Winnipeg were at 0.80 PPG, his career PPG is 0.66, to give an idea of his current spread of outcomes. If Dubois puts up a 0.66 PPG over the first 4 years of the deal, is that a success or failure?
One challenge to the doubters - if he puts up similar production to Kuznetsov over the same age period, would you consider the deal a win or a loss. [For reference, age-26 Kuznetsov 72 points in 76 games, age-27 52 points in 63 games, 29 points in 41 games, 78 points in 79 games, 55 points in 81 games, before the 17 points in 43 games that lead to his trade (total 303 points in 383 games, 0.80 PPG).] I'm just trying to get a sense of what level of production over the first 4-5 years of the Dubois contract people would consider a success. Is it as little as 75% of the Kuznetsov baseline, or more? Dubois' 2 successful years in Winnipeg were at 0.80 PPG, his career PPG is 0.66, to give an idea of his current spread of outcomes. If Dubois puts up a 0.66 PPG over the first 4 years of the deal, is that a success or failure?
OV Rocks
Registered User
Protas-Dubois-Wilson could be a damn hard line to play against.
Smell ya later McMichael…..
Smell ya later McMichael…..
He doesn’t hit. Those stats are inconsistent to say the least. He showed a pulse and took the body a handful of games throughout the season. I really hope he works out for you guys, and I can’t really speak to previous years, but he was dreadful last season.
AZ Caps Fan
Registered User
Mac likes big players so it's not so surprising to me he would acquire this guy.
I think we've had enough of players like Mantha and Kuzy the last few years, so I hope it works.
I think we've had enough of players like Mantha and Kuzy the last few years, so I hope it works.
