Confirmed with Link: Dubas the new GM - TSN

[hotpaws]

Even though Dubas has been in the organization, Lou has been the GM for the past 3 years. So what shape did Lou leave us in with his departure? What is Dubas now working with? The team at present (NHL experience only)

Hyman..Matthews..Nylander (RFA)
Marleau..Kadri..Marner
Johnsson..Gauthier..Brown
Leivo..N/A..Kapanen

Rielly..Hainsey
Gardiner..Zaitsev
Dermott..Carrick
Borgman..Holl
Rosen

Andersen
McB/Sparks

Draft picks: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th (x2)

So that's what he's starting with to begin shaping this team. This is where you can begin to evaluate his work. And there is much to do. Not a lot of strength/depth in tradeable assets to get what some people expect.

we have plenty of desirable trade chips including our prospects , people just won't like the price it'll take to acquire what we need if it's even available

 

[Mess]

Discussing Dubas' willingness to embrace analytics doesn't mean anyone thinks that's all he's about. This is a strawman.

There's nothing wrong with the term "Moneyball" in discussing any sports team management especially a team that has to operate under a salary cap. Every sports franchise hopes to get the most for their money including the rich ones.

MoneyPuck is the Hockey equivalent and with a Salary Hard Cap its very important that a GM gets good value and return for his investment and bang for his cap buck and those underlying analytics might come in very handy in finding and securing players that provide bigger impact than just goals and assists alone, by using advanced stats to help determine impact on the team.

I trust in terms of MoneyPuck Dubas might be near the head of the class as the new wave of young GMs embracing analytics as an added advantage to factor into decision making.

 

[LeafFever]

The point is that it's not a great contract and it's looking pretty rough. I'd be shocked if it was considered a 'good' contract anytime soon.

Because of injuries and illnesses in his NHL sophomore season. If he plays like his first season or better next year there are no complaints.

 

[killer1980]

I think the job is a lot more difficult than people think. Winning the playoffs is a different game than winning during the season. Players perform differently during the playoffs. Now, whether its inner fortitude, something in their psyche, or even coaching I do not know but even getting to a 7th game this year was quite miraculous for the Leafs considering the number of players that never showed up. I don't want to hear about the regular season. I want to hear about the Cup. I made a ton of money betting my friends that Leafs would lose even after they took the lead in game 7. You need athletes that are winners and have the ability to win. Look at the Raptors. Looking up and down the Leaf lineup, I'm not seeing a lot of winners in the lineup. Not surprising Marner and Marleau were the top performers followed by the players who seem to have heart like Hyman and Rielly. I'd rather be loaded with a team full of winners throughout their careers than guys who are apparently skilled but have not won at any level. I'll leave you with something that will fire up most on this board, what has Austin Matthews done in his career that indicates he can perform at a Championship level? Lots of highly skilled players have fallen apart when the Title is on the line. Kyle has lots to do.

 

[PromisedLand]

MoneyPuck is the Hockey equivalent and with a Salary Hard Cap its very important that a GM gets good value and return for his investment and bang for his cap buck and those underlying analytics might come in very handy in finding and securing players that provide bigger impact than just goals and assists alone, by using advanced stats to help determine impact on the team.

I trust in terms of MoneyPuck Dubas might be near the head of the class as the new wave of young GMs embracing analytics as an added advantage to factor into decision making.

I am hopeful that old school GMs egos are so massive that they will not incorporate analytics and keep making dumb moves to make their teams terrible this gives advantage to the leafs even if they don’t make any moves but other GMs make a dumb move. After all it is not just about absolute advantage but also comparative advantage

 

[ULF_55]

I would have been more comfortable with Lou Lam negotiating the 3 Amigos next big contracts first and then stepping aside handing the reins to Dubas.

Now I feel their agents are licking their lips in anticipation of > $$$ contracts without having to deal with Lou.

Shanny appears however to want Dubas to be the one that takes ownership and accountability of those contracts as he is the long term plan and those players will impact the Leafs for the next decade..

OTOH Dubas isn't 75 years old and in a hurry.

Dubas can be patient.

 

[Peasy]

If Dubas is truly an analytics guy, the one thing he won't be doing is obsessing about instantly filling in the perceived positional weakness at any cost.

Talk sports radio has really lost my interest. But during a few selected audits of it yesterday I encountered the following lowlights: Jeff Blair calling MLSE "cowards" for making the two major moves on the same day, Prime Time Sports having a 20 minute discussion of Maple Leafs' front office politics with Dubas and talk nothing about actual hockey or philosophy about the make up of the hockey team. Sports talk radio is dead. How do people listen to this garbage any longer?

You should just stick to Overdrive. Sportsnet is the worst.

Overdrive has former NHLers so they get it, have great banter, and not one to trash Dubas before he has even made his first move as GM.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I had a chance to listen to his interviews on the Fan590 and TSN 1050. I was very impressed. He sounds mature beyond his years.

My only concern is his inexperience in dealing with other GMs around the league regarding trades. I hope Lou will stick around as a sounding board for him for a while.

 

[Peasy]

With Dubas in charge I believe Matthews new contract will now be closer to $12 mil per (15% of C.H) as opposed closer to $10 mil.

We will soon find out what type of negotiator Dubas is as it will be reflective in the contracts of the 3 Amigos.

His plan to replace JVR annual 30+ goals, Bozak his 3rd line C and FO specialist, his plan to upgrade the defense also key offseason moves that are quickly approaching as well.

How can you even say this lmao. Do you have a crystal ball into an alternate universe where Lou signed Matthews' to his contract?
You honestly say the most random shit.

 

[Mess]

OTOH Dubas isn't 75 years old and in a hurry.

Dubas can be patient.

I'm expecting due to inexperience for Dubas to play it safe and cautious not wanting to make a mistake that we will seem it appeara to be a patient approach due to age.

Last time the Leafs had a 30ish year old GM in Gord Stellick we saw a Russ Courtnall for John Kordic disaster of a trade that resonates as one of the Leafs worst trades on record.

Lets hope history does not repeat itself again, and patience can win out even if it means steps backwards in terms of competitiveness in the present.

They say Dubas is one of the rising stars in the Business so we are about to see that is action.

 

[AuraSphere]

Just wondering, Ik Dubas is a Stats guy and all, but what has he done in order to deserve a GM title? What is he known for that made him so highly praised?

I genuinly don't know, so if someone could chime in that'd be nice

 

[PromisedLand]

the point i was making is that 1st timers CAN come in and end up being LL, or david poile or stevie Y etc etc..hes defending the fact that certain people are shi^%ing on the hire because hes never won a championship blah blah blah by saying at one point NJ took a chance on a young GM with no experience, hes not "annointing" anyone anything. people are allowed to believe its a good hire and have confidence in his ability.

Precisely. I don’t get why people don’t understand this.

 

[Trapper]

we have plenty of desirable trade chips including our prospects , people just won't like the price it'll take to acquire what we need if it's even available

Nor do we even know if management has the willingness to move them.
We don't know if they were willing to lose JVR for nothing if the exact deal wasn't there and we don't know if Gardiner is simply another own rental.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I'm expecting due to inexperience for Dubas to play it safe and cautious not wanting to make a mistake that we will seem it appeara to be a patient approach due to age.

Last time the Leafs had a 30ish year old GM in Gord Stellick we saw a Russ Courtnall for John Kordic disaster of a trade that resonates as one of the Leafs worst trades on record.

Lets hope history does not repeat itself again, and patience can win out even if it means steps backwards in terms of competitiveness in the present.

They say Dubas is one of the rising stars in the Business so we are about to see that is action.

Inexperience didn't prevent Chayka from making some bold moves in his early tenure. I think you're making a lot of false generalizations about Dubas because of his age Mess. You could easily say the opposite that he may want to make an outlandish move because of his overconfidence as a young inexperienced GM.

The reality is the experience he does have is within the organization's roots. He's been brought up to learn the Leafs from top to bottom, be involved in drafting/developing players and player acquisitions, understanding the organization's vision and where they want to go.

He's not an experience NHL GM - but he's well experienced within the Leafs organization to the point where he knows the are at, and what they would need going forward.

He even said in his interview with Tim and Sid yesterday that he holds a lot of the kids in the minors in high regards. So if he doesn't go out and make a splash, that could be a large part of the reasoning. Not that he's inexperienced and gun-shy.

 

[Cor]

I think he thinks Liljegren can be a top pairing guy.

 

[Trapper]

He could really make an early name for himself should he parlay Willy Nylander into a top 4 young Dman or #1 Dman, particularly if getting Nylander resigned becomes an issue.

With a young inexperience GM is he more likely to play it safe or willing to show what he is made of and put his stamp on the team early?

Will we still be following the Shanaplan or does Dubas have some rope to shape the team in his image and not Shanahan?

I would imagine slow and steady, safe UFA signings for the present.
As of right now, I don't even know what his views on asset management are. Does he move a valuable asset not in the long range plan? Does he acquire young pieces so we have centers developing in the system. Is he very high on having the pipeline churn out the future pieces to promote? I'm not sure yet.

 

[PromisedLand]

Why are people citing Moneyball with regards to Dubas? Unlike Billy Beane he has money to spend. He’s going to use analytics along with scouting to find diamonds in the rough. Every GM in the league is trying to do this, we’re just hoping Dubas is going to be better than anyone else at it. I don’t see what Moneyball has to do with anything.

This is just all related to people perceiving Dubas to be a numbers guy only. Hello, Billy Beane wasn’t even a numbers guy.

Tampa found a stud like Kucherov in the 2nd round; we need these home run picks

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I think the bigger question is will he have the respect of the fan base and media?

It shouldn’t matter but it does in terms of longevity in the position.

If he’s making moves with “moneyball” in mind, the stats he will use will likely be proprietary and not publicly available. Performance, health metrics and other variables.

If he makes an unpopular move, he can’t provide his rationale.

And if it doesn’t immediately pay off, that’s a recipe for a roast.

He’s got a VERY tough set of circumstances

Since when do GMs provide any rationale for any of their moves other than “we’re just trying to do what we think is best given the circumstances.”

All teams use proprietary stats.

At least the fan base — those who don’t just hate for the sake of hating — at least know this is a character who will act on rationale ascertained from consuming information and not just some gut feel based on their years of “experience” prior to the cap.

 

[Mess]

Inexperience didn't prevent Chayka from making some bold moves in his early tenure. I think you're making a lot of false generalizations about Dubas because of his age Mess. You could easily say the opposite that he may want to make an outlandish move because of his overconfidence as a young inexperienced GM.

The reality is the experience he does have is within the organization's roots. He's been brought up to learn the Leafs from top to bottom, be involved in drafting/developing players and player acquisitions, understanding the organization's vision and where they want to go.

He's not an experience NHL GM - but he's well experienced within the Leafs organization to the point where he knows the are at, and what they would need going forward.

He even said in his interview with Tim and Sid yesterday that he holds a lot of the kids in the minors in high regards. So if he doesn't go out and make a splash, that could be a large part of the reasoning. Not that he's inexperienced and gun-shy.

The Kessel trade launching the Pens to 2 Cups while Leafs are still paying the bill was not a good start the last time Dubas was in charge. Hockey experts continue to call that a poor trade for the Leafs.

Once bitten twice shy !!!

If Dubas believes Gauthier, Aatonen, Grundstrom and Justin Holl are the answers to move the Leafs forward in terms of playoff contenders and filling holes of (Bozak, Plekanec, Komarov and Polak) with Marlies then there is some room to be concerned that his age and inexperience is impacting the Leafs going forward.

This summer will be real interesting to see how Dubas plans on dealing with potential departures of JVR, Bozak, Komarov and upgrading the D and how he deals with the contracts of the 3 Amigos.

PS. Chayka also an analytics guru made bold moves but took Arizona backwards and ended up hurting the team and that is what I'm hoping doesn't happen to the Leafs.

 

[Morbo]

If Dubas is truly an analytics guy, the one thing he won't be doing is obsessing about instantly filling in the perceived positional weakness at any cost.

Talk sports radio has really lost my interest. But during a few selected audits of it yesterday I encountered the following lowlights: Jeff Blair calling MLSE "cowards" for making the two major moves on the same day, Prime Time Sports having a 20 minute discussion of Maple Leafs' front office politics with Dubas and talk nothing about actual hockey or philosophy about the make up of the hockey team. Sports talk radio is dead. How do people listen to this garbage any longer?

haven't listened in years. I'd give the Athletic a try. enjoyed it so far.

 

[ObscureAlien]

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I think he thinks Liljegren can be a top pairing guy.

that would bode pretty well if it's the case. Dubas has a good eye for potential

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I'm pretty happily surprised that he likes where our defense is. My biggest worry was a knee-jerk reaction to try to improve it, like a Hall for Larsson deal. Luckily he seems too smart for that

 

[PromisedLand]

Just wondering, Ik Dubas is a Stats guy and all, but what has he done in order to deserve a GM title? What is he known for that made him so highly praised?

I genuinly don't know, so if someone could chime in that'd be nice

He took soo (hockey club in ohl) that was cash strapped to look for efficiences in improving the club with not a lot of resources. That team is doing well.

He was the GM for the marlies (including responsible for player development) and they are not doing that bad either.

Dermott, Johnsson, Kapanen, Nylander, Brown, Hyman, and others on marlies like Lily, Holl, Borgman, Rosen, Grundstrom etc... have developed according to the plans laid out by Dubas.

Due to his initial training with the Soo IMO he is not going to just throw money at a big name UFA; which is important.

Think of it this way:
You can sign player X for 6 mil and then find a cheap player Y to make the roster; player X is overpaid but plays well and player Y is a weak link; but due to cap player Y was signed.

Coach doesn’t trust player Y as much so he overplays player X and the team may not be in a good situation.

Or

You can sign players A and B for a total of 6 million; one of them individually may not be as good as player X; but together they far outweigh the output of player X; and have none of the negative impact of player Y. Coach trusts both players A and B; cap hit is the same 6million but the positive impact on the team is much stronger. That’s is, more bang for the buck.

 

[Macallan18]

Kypreos...gives me a migraine. I have watched him on so many intermissions, some day I hope he will say something novel and insightful. Otherwise, everything that comes out of his mouth seems to be regurgitated drivel.
Lets face it, the high point of his hockey career was getting hammered so hard in the nose in a fight that there was so much blood, the refs sent him to the dressing room and wouldn't let him come back on the ice. It was just gross!