Confirmed with Link: Draisaitl re-signs 8y 8.5M AAV

[Fourier]

43 points is pretty poor for a scoring 2nd line center who is average in every other area of his game. Sorry but there's no other way to spin it. Mclellan made mentions throughout the year about the need for secondary offense and not getting it.
I think even the biggest RNH fans admitted throughout the year last season that he wasn't good enough, same goes for Eberle and quite frankly, Lucic as well at even strength. If RNH has another season like the last two, it might be tough to move his contract for any real value.

They definitely picked it up in crunch time which was great to see but they will need more from the 2nd line this season on a consistent basis if they are to duplicate last seasons' success. Having a handful of players carry the team again this season won't cut it. By and large, it was a poor year for the 2nd and 3rd lines last season.

Your changing the narrative. You said they were lucky to have succeeded with such poor secondary scoring. But in fact they had above average secondary scoring until you get about 9 forwards deep in the roster.

And yes, they had stretches where they lacked secondary scoring. But so did pretty much every team in the league outside of two or three. That's what happens in a league where the median 4th highest scoring forward on a team has 45 points and the league median is 1.8 ES goals per game. Still if you look at the season the primary issue with secondary scoring was probably isolated to a 15 game stretch from mid November to mid December.

As to Nuge specifically, would I be satisfied with 43 points again. No. Obviously he is capable of more. But what number would you expect from a second line center who does not get 1st pp minutes. Statistically the median for second line centers over the last 3 years is about 46 points. And most of the guys in that range play on their team's top pp unit and do not see top line competition defensively.

It is not at all clear that having Leon as the #2 guy means more secondary scoring. His totals could easily drop by 10-15 points if he plays that role all year. And this is especially true if they moved Nuge and as a result Leon ended up qb'ing the second pp or they had no one at all to do so. If this happens where do they make those points up?

Right now the pair of McDavid and Draisiatl is the best in the NHL. It is not at all obvious that this is not an advantage for the Oilers. The current roster allows the team flexibility to take advantage of McDavid's incredible skills. Weakening the line-up is not a recipe to score more.

 

[McDeepika]

Your changing the narrative. You said they were lucky to have succeeded with such poor secondary scoring. But in fact they had above average secondary scoring until you get about 9 forwards deep in the roster.

And yes, they had stretches where they lacked secondary scoring. But so did pretty much every team in the league outside of two or three. That's what happens in a league where the median 4th highest scoring forward on a team has 45 points and the league median is 1.8 ES goals per game. Still if you look at the season the primary issue with secondary scoring was probably isolated to a 15 game stretch from mid November to mid December.

As to Nuge specifically, would I be satisfied with 43 points again. No. Obviously he is capable of more. But what number would you expect from a second line center who does not get 1st pp minutes. Statistically the median for second line centers over the last 3 years is about 46 points. And most of the guys in that range play on their team's top pp unit and do not see top line competition defensively.

It is not at all clear that having Leon as the #2 guy means more secondary scoring. His totals could easily drop by 10-15 points if he plays that role all year. And this is especially true if they moved Nuge and as a result Leon ended up qb'ing the second pp or they had no one at all to do so. If this happens where do they make those points up?

Right now the pair of McDavid and Draisiatl is the best in the NHL. It is not at all obvious that this is not an advantage for the Oilers. The current roster allows the team flexibility to take advantage of McDavid's incredible skills. Weakening the line-up is not a recipe to score more.

I don't really like this way of thinking because it ignores missed games. For instance guys like Anisimov/Stastny/Perreault clearly provided more in terms of secondary production but have similar point totals.

Every team in our division except for the Coyotes had a better 2C this year than RNH. Extend that to the conference and it doesn't get much better. Debates can be had on the Blues/Preds/Avs.

 

[AM]

Who cares about 8-9 years down the road? The cap environment will be completely different as it was 8-9 years ago. If we win a cup or cups that means this was a good deal.

The point is that we are paying him like hes won a couple cups.

 

[Fourier]

I don't really like this way of thinking because it ignores missed games. For instance guys like Anisimov/Stastny/Perreault clearly provided more in terms of secondary production but have similar point totals.

Every team in our division except for the Coyotes had a better 2C this year than RNH. Extend that to the conference and it doesn't get much better. Debates can be had on the Blues/Preds/Avs.

These are fair comments. But it cuts both ways. Last year Nuge missed a lot of games but put up a 50+ point pace. This was the first year he had anywhere close to this level of production but it seems that this year is now his standard. Talking multi year averages spreads out things like missed games and other factors that impact a players production. That's why I quoted production over three years. It`s not perfect but it gives some perspective to the notion that /2C should put up 55-60 points year in an year out.

It is interesting that you mention a guys like Anisimov or Stastny. Stastny has three straight 40-49 point seasons but has the benefit of playing on the first powerplay with Tarasenko. His most common line mates were Steen, Schwartz, Perron and Tarasenko. So in reality he was basically St. Louis's #1C. Stastny also makes over $7M.

Anisimov played almost exclusively with Kane and Panarin at ES. This has a lot to do with his numbers as he is a clear third wheel offensively on that line. He`s 29 years old and has never had more than 45 points.

Perrault is a guy who is very underrated offensively. But like Anisimov 45 points is the most he has ever had.

Both of these guys Anisimov and Perrault earn over $4M and I`d say that both are generally second third line tweeners on most teams. If you flipped them with RNH I think that the Oilers would be fine with Perrault but would be taking a big step back with Anisimov. Neither player are really great skaters. Anisimov is big but not physical. He`d be fine as a defensive 3rd line center but in that role may well get 25-30 points.

You are right about centers in the Pacific. Its a strong group for sure. I would disagree though that Nuge was worse than Sedin this year. The twins still got their points but they were a disaster defensively. Backlund had a career year last year and has recently found his touch offensively. But he is also 28 so he has had a lot of time top mature his full game.

Anaheim has Getzlaf and Kesler. Few teams have a better 1-2 combo. SJ has about 5 natural centers in their top 6 and mixes how they are used. This is the exact model I see the oilers using with McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge and Strome all capable of playing in the middle.

Again, the issue that McCupofOil and I were talking about was the amount of secondary scoring the Oilers had last year. But it morphed into Nuge is a 40 point center discussion. And I am happy to agree that if this becomes his new norm he will not be an Oiler for long.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

The point is that we are paying him like hes won a couple cups.

They aren't, because players don't win Cups, teams win Cup.

Besides when you pay players because "they won cups" you get the Toews contract, a 50-60 point player being paid $10M+ a year to be slightly better then average.

 

[bucks_oil]

These are fair comments. But it cuts both ways. Last year Nuge missed a lot of games but put up a 50+ point pace. This was the first year he had anywhere close to this level of production but it seems that this year is now his standard. Talking multi year averages spreads out things like missed games and other factors that impact a players production. That's why I quoted production over three years. It`s not perfect but it gives some perspective to the notion that /2C should put up 55-60 points year in an year out.

It is interesting that you mention a guys like Anisimov or Stastny. Stastny has three straight 40-49 point seasons but has the benefit of playing on the first powerplay with Tarasenko. His most common line mates were Steen, Schwartz, Perron and Tarasenko. So in reality he was basically St. Louis's #1C. Stastny also makes over $7M.

Anisimov played almost exclusively with Kane and Panarin at ES. This has a lot to do with his numbers as he is a clear third wheel offensively on that line. He`s 29 years old and has never had more than 45 points.

Perrault is a guy who is very underrated offensively. But like Anisimov 45 points is the most he has ever had.

Both of these guys Anisimov and Perrault earn over $4M and I`d say that both are generally second third line tweeners on most teams. If you flipped them with RNH I think that the Oilers would be fine with Perrault but would be taking a big step back with Anisimov. Neither player are really great skaters. Anisimov is big but not physical. He`d be fine as a defensive 3rd line center but in that role may well get 25-30 points.

You are right about centers in the Pacific. Its a strong group for sure. I would disagree though that Nuge was worse than Sedin this year. The twins still got their points but they were a disaster defensively. Backlund had a career year last year and has recently found his touch offensively. But he is also 28 so he has had a lot of time top mature his full game.

Anaheim has Getzlaf and Kesler. Few teams have a better 1-2 combo. SJ has about 5 natural centers in their top 6 and mixes how they are used. This is the exact model I see the oilers using with McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge and Strome all capable of playing in the middle.

Again, the issue that McCupofOil and I were talking about was the amount of secondary scoring the Oilers had last year. But it morphed into Nuge is a 40 point center discussion. And I am happy to agree that if this becomes his new norm he will not be an Oiler for long.

Great post.

The expectations on RNH are higher than reality. Even in his worst season he's still a capable #2C and we have the luxury of playing him in the third spot.

Our cap is balanced this year, and may be next year as well... his contract, or any contract on our team, is not yet an issue and when if it becomes that way, it will be a nice problem to have. ~1/3 of the league would still accept Nuge as their #1C.

If he puts up another subpar (for him) offensive season, then the price teams are willing to pay will drop, but we aren't going to have any trouble getting rid of him. None whatsoever.

 

[bobbythebrain]

They aren't, because players don't win Cups, teams win Cup.

Besides when you pay players because "they won cups" you get the Toews contract, a 50-60 point player being paid $10M+ a year to be slightly better then average.

You think being one of the best FO players and Selke defense is slightly better than average?

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

You think being one of the best FO players and Selke defense is slightly better than average?

Pretty much yeah, especially for $10M+ a year.

 

[CupofOil]

Again, the issue that McCupofOil and I were talking about was the amount of secondary scoring the Oilers had last year. But it morphed into Nuge is a 40 point center discussion. And I am happy to agree that if this becomes his new norm he will not be an Oiler for long.

I never said that he was a 40 point center. I said that he produced poorly for a 2nd line center last year and even though he was on pace for 50 points the prior season, there was clearly something off with him.

He just hasn't been the same player offensively since Eakins sapped all the offensive creativity out of him outside of one meaningless stretch with Pouliot and Eberle 3 years ago.

He started the push the pace more the last 15 games or so last season and into the playoffs. I'd like to see more of that than this cautious deathly afraid to make mistakes Nuge which negates his main strength which is supposed to be offensive creativity. He's not a shutdown center and shouldn't be deployed as such and it seems like Mclellan finally gets it based on his comments that he plans to put Nuge into a more offensive role.

 

[Fourier]

I never said that he was a 40 point center. I said that he produced poorly for a 2nd line center last year and even though he was on pace for 50 points the prior season, there was clearly something off with him.

He just hasn't been the same player offensively since Eakins sapped all the offensive creativity out of him outside of one meaningless stretch with Pouliot and Eberle 3 years ago.

He started the push the pace more the last 15 games or so last season and into the playoffs. I'd like to see more of that than this cautious deathly afraid to make mistakes Nuge which negates his main strength which is supposed to be offensive creativity. He's not a shutdown center and shouldn't be deployed as such and it seems like Mclellan finally gets it based on his comments that he plans to put Nuge into a more offensive role.

My comment about him being a 40 point center was not directed at you though the way it was written it would be easy for you to think it was so for that I apologize. It was more about the growing narrative.

I fully agree by the way that his game has become far too cautious. I think McLellan's comments at the end of the year suggest that this is something they want him to change. Where I disagree with many is that I think he is perfectly capable of doing that without sacrificing much on the defensive side. We actually saw this not only at the end of last year but also in the world cup. Nuge and McKinnon were dynamic together playing against some top level competition. He has the skills for sure He just has to use them. And since it has been explicitly asked of him, if he does not do so he most likely gets traded.

In the end though this is a Draisaitl thread and how he is used will also have a lot to do with the moves the team makes going forward. Personally I think he will still end up playing a lot with McDavid over the next couple of years . And that as some of the skilled wingers like Puljujarvi and Yamamoto mature this will decrease.

 

[Weitz]

Wow, I just realized we signed Draisaitl for 2.375 million more a year than Mark Scheifele who has proven more over his career.

That just makes me hate this contract more.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Wow, I just realized we signed Draisaitl for 2.375 million more a year than Mark Scheifele who has proven more over his career.

That just makes me hate this contract more.

This is really dumb. The fact that Scheifele's agent is just terrible at his job doesn't effect the reality around the deal the Draisaitl signed.

Scheifele isn't "comparable" he's an "outlier"

 

[NeutralFan88]

Wow, I just realized we signed Draisaitl for 2.375 million more a year than Mark Scheifele who has proven more over his career.

That just makes me hate this contract more.

I don't think you forgot. You just wanted to remind everybody lol.

 

[McDNicks17]

That and Scheifele signed that contract after a 61 point season.

Drai signed his after a 77 point season(and 16 point playoff).

Big difference considering Drai was close to two years younger when signing too.

 

[Weitz]

That and Scheifele signed that contract after a 61 point.

Drai signed his after a 77 point season.

Big difference considering Drai was close to two years younger when signing too.

Thats right, ok I feel better now. Some how when I was looking at Cap Friendly I thought it was 2017.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Thats right, ok I feel better now. Some how when I was looking at Cap Friendly I thought it was 2017.

No one is buying this.

 

[Consultant]

This is really dumb. The fact that Scheifele's agent is just terrible at his job doesn't effect the reality around the deal the Draisaitl signed.

Scheifele isn't "comparable" he's an "outlier"

Draisaitl's contract is a outlier as well, just in the wrong direction. Sort of makes you wish Chia would learn how to negotiate.

 

[McDNicks17]

Draisaitl's contract is a outlier as well, just in the wrong direction. Sort of makes you wish Chia would learn how to negotiate.

I'd like to see your list of players/contracts that you think he's an outlier from.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Draisaitl's contract is a outlier as well, just in the wrong direction. Sort of makes you wish Chia would learn how to negotiate.

totally, If they players would just listen and take what their told too, then we wouldn't have to worry about this.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I'd like to see your list of players/contracts that you think he's an outlier from.

He doesn't he's being obtuse, or that's the way it comes across.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

Draisaitl's contract is a outlier as well, just in the wrong direction. Sort of makes you wish Chia would learn how to negotiate.

Johanson : 8 mil/ 61 points
Drasisatl: 8.5 mil/ 77 points.

Huh?

 

[Weitz]

Johanson : 8 mil/ 61 points
Drasisatl: 8.5 mil/ 77 points.

Huh?

7 UFA years. #1 center. yadda yadda.

The fact of the matter is there is no value in the Draisaitl contract. We can just hope he lives up to it.

 

[bucks_oil]

My comment about him being a 40 point center was not directed at you though the way it was written it would be easy for you to think it was so for that I apologize. It was more about the growing narrative.

I fully agree by the way that his game has become far too cautious. I think McLellan's comments at the end of the year suggest that this is something they want him to change. Where I disagree with many is that I think he is perfectly capable of doing that without sacrificing much on the defensive side. We actually saw this not only at the end of last year but also in the world cup. Nuge and McKinnon were dynamic together playing against some top level competition. He has the skills for sure He just has to use them. And since it has been explicitly asked of him, if he does not do so he most likely gets traded.

In the end though this is a Draisaitl thread and how he is used will also have a lot to do with the moves the team makes going forward. Personally I think he will still end up playing a lot with McDavid over the next couple of years . And that as some of the skilled wingers like Puljujarvi and Yamamoto mature this will decrease.

I agree with this...

What I saw out of Nuge in the last 18 months is a maturation as a player... and it is a work in progress so you can't expect to like every single snapshot.

Right now what we are seeing is a player who, on the positive:
1) Has the natural talent to drive offense
2) Has learned/listened to coaches who have praised puck possession... that there is always an easy pass to be made and that losing the puck is bad
3) Has a natural puck hound ability that makes him very valuable defensively (even before his defensive awareness has reached its peak... which it hasn't)

On the negative:
1) This is a player who has NOT learned "situational play". Situational play would allow him to realize that when you have a guy driving the net and the rest of your teammates are in supportive positions and it isn't the last 5 mins of a 1-goal game... that it's OK to try a risky, boom-bust pass, rather than a button hook, chip to the corner.

When people talk about "losing culture" part of the issue is a learned response to lack trust of your teammates, which, if you are listening to your coach, can lead to an overcompensation and an unwillingness to risk... ANYTHING.

Nuge is a cerebral player who has erred on the side of caution because his coach(es) had been screaming at his linemmates to simplify their play. Too much has rubbed off on Nuge (the fault of a coach who doesn't know how to properly ascribe blame... Eakins) and thus its going to take some time before his offense returns.

I'm really not that worried.

 

[Spawn]

Maybe he just sucks

 

[ThePhoenixx]

7 UFA years. #1 center. yadda yadda.

The fact of the matter is there is no value in the Draisaitl contract. We can just hope he lives up to it.

You pay for production these days. Not what you did, blah blah.

It's not his fault he plays with McDavid. Johanson wouldn't be the 1st line center here either.

Very poor logic.