Confirmed with Link: Draisaitl re-signs 8y 8.5M AAV

[LaGu]

Though you could argue Detroit was a less successful team after splitting them up. If I'm not mistaken they split after their cup win. Adding Hossa saved them for a season (and got them back to the finals), but thereafter the Wings offence never looked quiet as dangerous, nor did Zetterburg or Dats. Of course other factors where at play there, namely losing Rafalski and Lidstrom starting to slow down and actually look human.

Yes, it was probably part of the reason they split. Everyone I think saw that the team started to lose a step after their cup and (I would argue) their loss in the final the year after. It was logical to split them, and the team had success after as well. But not as before.

Anyway, neither were McDavid/Crosby quality so that obviously changes the dynamic a bit. McDavid will be ok with or without Drai, Drai might struggle without McD. Which also is fine by the way, he is 21.

Of course this contract is a bet and a risk. To me it seems in line with how the cap-world works. You sign for potential all the time, and betting on Drai is a very good bet so I don't mind the contract at all. It can back-fire though.

 

[Weitz]

Likely, but at least you save the headache around Drai's production.


Also thank god for the players escalator for that not to be a problem.

I wouldn't bet on that. They finally realized this year that artificially inflating the cap just takes money out of everyone's pockets. I wouldn't be shocked they don't use it going forward.

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

I wouldn't bet on that. They finally realized this year that artificially inflating the cap just takes money out of everyone's pockets. I wouldn't be shocked they don't use it going forward.

They will if the players who have expiring contracts have anything to say about it.

 

[LaGu]

I wouldn't bet on that. They finally realized this year that artificially inflating the cap just takes money out of everyone's pockets. I wouldn't be shocked they don't use it going forward.

I would be utterly shocked.

 

[oilinger]

Let's take a closer look at his playoff success away from McDavid.

He had 4 of his 16 playoff points playing away from McDavid. Three of those points happened in one game, his 5 point game vs Anaheim. In two of the three games he centered his own line in the Anaheim series

Leon actually had 7 of his 16 playoff points without McDavid--almost half.
Game 5 vs SJ Assist on Desharnais OT winner
Game 1 vs ANA Goal (en)
Game 3 vs ANA assist on Maroon goal
Game 5 vs ANA Goal
Game 6 vs ANA 2 Goals, 1 assist

Some context for the losses where Leon was centering his own line:
Game 5 vs ANA Oilers led til the last 3 minutes, then lost in 2OT.
Game 7 vs ANA No one would have beat the Ducks that day: they were on a mission not to lose another game 7 on home ice.

Leon had a great playoff, with and without McD. Would've been even better had he not been sick for the 1st 4 games vs SJ.

 

[Fourier]

Leon actually had 7 of his 16 playoff points without McDavid--almost half.
Game 5 vs SJ Assist on Desharnais OT winner
Game 1 vs ANA Goal (en)
Game 3 vs ANA assist on Maroon goal
Game 5 vs ANA Goal
Game 6 vs ANA 2 Goals, 1 assist

Some context for the losses where Leon was centering his own line:
Game 5 vs ANA Oilers led til the last 3 minutes, then lost in 2OT.
Game 7 vs ANA No one would have beat the Ducks that day: they were on a mission not to lose another game 7 on home ice.

Leon had a great playoff, with and without McD. Would've been even better had he not been sick for the 1st 4 games vs SJ.

Thanks for correcting my comments. I should have checked the game sheets more closely. I am sorry if my comments were misleading. My original comment should have read "in games where the two were separated".

 

[Cawz]

Drai was moved to the McDavid line in January not because of his own numbers but because of McDavid's numbers.

McDavid in December: 1-5-6 in 14 games at even strength, with 0 even strength points at home.

Drai's 'slump' was in early November playing with a revolving door of wingers like Pouliot, PJ, Caggiula (when he came back) with little chance to develop chemistry.

That's why his numbers without McD last year are a bit misleading. Quality & consistency of linemates matters.

Exactly. Thats why I hate it when numbers are thrown around. Context is almost as important as the stat itself.

But whatever. We should have 8+ years to amass numbers with context going forward.

 

[CupofOil]

I see people wanting to put Strome or RNH on McDavid's wing to boost their production, but I think this contract makes that near impossible.

Letting Drai centre his own line will only hurt the team in justifying the cost of both Drai and McDavid, while needlessly raise the cost of the supporting cast. McDavid-Draisaitl have shown they can be the most productive duo in the NHL, that is what got them paid. If you separate them, you're just going to hurt the production of both. With Draisaitl, McDavid is a clear MVP candidate; without Drai he's likely going to fall back into the crowd of other the elite scorers. Drai on the other hand is a near PPG player with McDavid, but I'm not sold he's anything more than a 55 to 65 point centre, especially if he's having to share icetime with McDavid and RNH.


Personally I'd try to isolate McDavid, Draisiatl, and Lucic, as all three are locked up for the next half decade plus. Let them be the most productive line in the league for the next half decade. For those worried about becoming a one line team, there should enough high end offensive talent with the rest of the team in RNH, Strome, Puljujarvi, and Yamamoto to pick up the slack for secondary scoring at a reasonable price.

You don't make moves to "justify" a contract or to keep another potential contract more reasonable. Not one coach thinks that way. You do what's best for the team.


McDavid and Draisaitl have elite skillsets, there's no reason to think that both can't produce at a high level anchoring their own line and produce enough points to make the fans feel better about their contracts. Even if Drai doesn't score as many points anchoring his own line but the team is better off for it because they FINALLY have two legit scoring lines then you do it. Mclellan doesn't care what the fickle fans think of the contract if Draisaitl scores 65 points instead of 80 but makes the 2nd line a whole lot better.

Same thing with people saying that they should take Maroon off of McDavid's line because his contract demands might be too pricey if he stays with McDavid. None of that matters. Maroon and McDavid have chemistry and them playing together makes that a better line, Lucic on that line not so much so you don't split it up and let the chips fall where they may with Maroon's contract.

 

[Jejune]

You don't make moves to "justify" a contract or to keep another potential contract more reasonable. Not one coach thinks that way. You do what's best for the team.


McDavid and Draisaitl have elite skillsets, there's no reason to think that both can't produce at a high level anchoring their own line and produce enough points to make the fans feel better about their contracts. Even if Drai doesn't score as many points anchoring his own line but the team is better off for it because they FINALLY have two legit scoring lines then you do it. Mclellan doesn't care what the fickle fans think of the contract if Draisaitl scores 65 points instead of 80 but makes the 2nd line a whole lot better.

Same thing with people saying that they should take Maroon off of McDavid's line because his contract demands might be too pricey if he stays with McDavid. None of that matters. Maroon and McDavid have chemistry and them playing together makes that a better line, Lucic on that line not so much so you don't split it up and let the chips fall where they may with Maroon's contract.

God I hope we don't Beleskey ourselves with Maroon.

 

[CupofOil]

God I hope we don't Beleskey ourselves with Maroon.

With Chia, you never know. I didn't think in my wildest dreams that he would give Russell a 4 year deal but there is an undeniable connection between Maroon and McDavid and he's one of the real team leaders so a mid long term deal wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if it was in the 3-4 year range.
However, that would likely require Maroon taking a pay cut due to really liking it here and moving other players to fit him in so he's likely a goner either way even if Chia really likes him.

 

[Aceboogie]

With Chia, you never know. I didn't think in my wildest dreams that he would give Russell a 4 year deal but there is an undeniable connection between Maroon and McDavid and he's one of the real team leaders so a mid long term deal wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if it was in the 3-4 year range.
However, that would likely require Maroon taking a pay cut due to really liking it here and moving other players to fit him in so he's likely a goner either way even if Chia really likes him.

I had a gut feeling Chiarelli had a 4 year deal in place for Russell. When Sekera got injured that became a given. Chiarelli also had money to burn. However with Maroon hell be a UFA in the summer we have a bigger cap crunch, so to even sign him will be a tough one.

I really hope im wrong but I will predict giving big money to Maroon wont be an issue because hell struggle to get 20 this year. His shooting % was sky high this year and just about everything went right for him. Maroon is a fine depth player but next year I think (but really hope Im wrong) hell show signs of being miscast in the top 6.

Hopefully at that time Lucic catches fire and takes his spot and that 6 mil contract becomes more palatable

 

[Spawn]

I had a gut feeling Chiarelli had a 4 year deal in place for Russell. When Sekera got injured that became a given. Chiarelli also had money to burn. However with Maroon hell be a UFA in the summer we have a bigger cap crunch, so to even sign him will be a tough one.

I really hope im wrong but I will predict giving big money to Maroon wont be an issue because hell struggle to get 20 this year. His shooting % was sky high this year and just about everything went right for him. Maroon is a fine depth player but next year I think (but really hope Im wrong) hell show signs of being miscast in the top 6.

Hopefully at that time Lucic catches fire and takes his spot and that 6 mil contract becomes more palatable

His numbers this past season weren't all that far off his production when in the top 6 with the Ducks. His goal totals were way up, but he's been a ~40 point pace player in 3 of the past 4 seasons.

His goal totals are way up, but his assist totals are way down.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

You don't make moves to "justify" a contract or to keep another potential contract more reasonable. Not one coach thinks that way. You do what's best for the team.


McDavid and Draisaitl have elite skillsets, there's no reason to think that both can't produce at a high level anchoring their own line and produce enough points to make the fans feel better about their contracts. Even if Drai doesn't score as many points anchoring his own line but the team is better off for it because they FINALLY have two legit scoring lines then you do it. Mclellan doesn't care what the fickle fans think of the contract if Draisaitl scores 65 points instead of 80 but makes the 2nd line a whole lot better.

Same thing with people saying that they should take Maroon off of McDavid's line because his contract demands might be too pricey if he stays with McDavid. None of that matters. Maroon and McDavid have chemistry and them playing together makes that a better line, Lucic on that line not so much so you don't split it up and let the chips fall where they may with Maroon's contract.

But isn't that what's best for the team: Maximizing McDavid's and Draisaitl's production?

Considering your # 2 and 3 centres are RNH and Strome, they should be able to shoulder the secondary scoring, and it's not like they'll be without support on theit wings.


Not to mention if you limiting RNH's offensive icetime and using him in a more or less strictly shutdown role as the #3 centre, it's a waste of his talent and 6million. He's more than fine as the #2, especially if he's with wingers that are a better fit for him than Eberle and Lucic/Pouliot.

 

[McTedi]

But isn't that what's best for the team: Maximizing McDavid's and Draisaitl's production?

Considering your # 2 and 3 centres are RNH and Strome, they should be able to shoulder the secondary scoring, and it's not like they'll be without support on theit wings.


Not to mention if you limiting RNH's offensive icetime and using him in a more or less strictly shutdown role as the #3 centre, it's a waste of his talent and 6million. He's more than fine as the #2, especially if he's with wingers that are a better fit for him than Eberle and Lucic/Pouliot.

Hmmm...this is a bit of a cop out statement. It is true that RNH was being utilized as a 2way center in a shutdown but no one told he had to start being futile offensively. And when did RNH and Ebs not become the right fit together, they played together more or less from the start.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Hmmm...this is a bit of a cop out statement. It is true that RNH was being utilized as a 2way center in a shutdown but no one told he had to start being futile offensively. And when did RNH and Ebs not become the right fit together, they played together more or less from the start.

I don't think it's quite a cop out statement. If you've got an offensive situation, odds are you're wanting to go with the McDavid line, if that group's tired, then it'll be the Draisaitl line. RNH will be the 3rd fiddle offensively, that will limit his looks to generate points as they're are only so many to go around.

You are right no one asked Nuge to completely abandoned being aggressive and looking to generate offence, but I saw a player last year that was completely out of his element, who was seemingly thinking "if I play it safe, than that's good defence". Not really a winning strategy, but it think it was the best he could do in that role. He's someone that can survive in a power vs. power situation, but he's just not a shutdown centre.

Historical yes, Ebs and RNH read off each other beautifully, but last season their styles clashed horribly. I think losing a speedy forechecker and puck carrier in Hall(physically gone) and Pouliot(mentally gone) really hurt their game. Though the fact they couldn't compensate for that is odd, as they did succeed with old man Smyth back in the day.

The fact that both seemed to have slowed down (especially from an acceleration pov) and neither could consistantly win a board battle to save their life limited their production along with Lucic's (whose entire game is built around cycling vs. forechecking). Without a doubt either the two Finns or Lucic and Slepyshev are a better fit for RNH, as your putting him with two high hockey IQ guys or two big meat and potatoes players with some offensive talent. Imo one of the worst options for Nuge would be to have Strome on his RW, far too similar to Eberle. Simply put, he needs guys that can get the puck back to him when it goes to the boards.

 

[Hemsky4PM]

Get RNH on the top PP somehow. Even if just half the time...time to pump his numbers. I would also be ok with a second PP unit of Drai, RNH, Strome, Maroon and Benning/Nurse. First would be McDavid, Lucic, Letestu, Puljujarvi and Klefbom.

I think McLellan needs to get creative with RNH. They have to get him up to 55+ points to market him for a trade eventually.

 

[joestevens29]

Get RNH on the top PP somehow. Even if just half the time...time to pump his numbers. I would also be ok with a second PP unit of Drai, RNH, Strome, Maroon and Benning/Nurse. First would be McDavid, Lucic, Letestu, Puljujarvi and Klefbom.

I think McLellan needs to get creative with RNH. They have to get him up to 55+ points to market him for a trade eventually.

I don't know. I'd assume that most who are acquiring him are giving him the benefit of the doubt that he's a 55 point player anyway. That's pretty much what his average was the three seasons before last.

I don't see how him getting back to that level makes him so desirable, especially if it's just directly because of easier minutes.

Now if he were to put up 55 points while playing a shutdown role, minimal PP time, lots of PK time, with a 50%+ faceoff percentage then I could see teams getting excited

 

[CupofOil]

But isn't that what's best for the team: Maximizing McDavid's and Draisaitl's production?

Considering your # 2 and 3 centres are RNH and Strome, they should be able to shoulder the secondary scoring, and it's not like they'll be without support on theit wings.


Not to mention if you limiting RNH's offensive icetime and using him in a more or less strictly shutdown role as the #3 centre, it's a waste of his talent and 6million. He's more than fine as the #2, especially if he's with wingers that are a better fit for him than Eberle and Lucic/Pouliot.

The 2nd line was a weak link most of last season so there's no guarantee that they can provide enough secondary scoring so it's not more than fine, it was a real sore spot for the team and the best scoring RW option for that line is now gone so RNH will be asked to shoulder an even heavier load.

My idea isn't to move RNH to a 3rd line role, it's run a Lucic-Draisaitl-RNH 2nd line. This line was dominant in their short stints together last season, the opposition couldn't get the puck from them. When you have two smart players like Draisaitl and RNH on the same line and a bull in Lucic to handle the dirty work in front of the net, that's a lethal combination. Leave RNH to anchor his own line and make his linemates better and you're running into problems because that's not his game unfortunately, he needs help. He doesn't do well as a lead guy.

Maximizing 1st line production at the expense of the 2nd line and creating a forward imbalance is not what's best for the team IMO. The Oilers were extremely fortunate to do as well as they did last season with a largely impotent 2nd and 3rd line. They won't be so fortunate this season as a one line team.
In any event, I think Mclellan will shuffle around the lines a lot so it's hard to pinpoint one particular alignment that will stick. Drai will definitely see some time with McDavid at some point if the team is in a rut and it's damn nice to have that as a safety net.

 

[Fourier]

The 2nd line was a weak link most of last season so there's no guarantee that they can provide enough secondary scoring so it's not more than fine, it was a real sore spot for the team and the best scoring RW option for that line is now gone so RNH will be asked to shoulder an even heavier load.

My idea isn't to move RNH to a 3rd line role, it's run a Lucic-Draisaitl-RNH 2nd line. This line was dominant in their short stints together last season, the opposition couldn't get the puck from them. When you have two smart players like Draisaitl and RNH on the same line and a bull in Lucic to handle the dirty work in front of the net, that's a lethal combination. Leave RNH to anchor his own line and make his linemates better and you're running into problems because that's not his game unfortunately, he needs help. He doesn't do well as a lead guy.

Maximizing 1st line production at the expense of the 2nd line and creating a forward imbalance is not what's best for the team IMO. The Oilers were extremely fortunate to do as well as they did last season with a largely impotent 2nd and 3rd line. They won't be so fortunate this season as a one line team.
In any event, I think Mclellan will shuffle around the lines a lot so it's hard to pinpoint one particular alignment that will stick. Drai will definitely see some time with McDavid at some point if the team is in a rut and it's damn nice to have that as a safety net.

The second line played very well for the last 30 or so games including the full stretch run. And you really need to look at the reality of secondary scoring across the league. The Oilers depth scoring was at least average despite down years from guys like Nuge and Eberle.

I do agree that McLellan will move people around a lot. This is a lineup with a great deal of flexibility. He should take advantage of it.

 

[CupofOil]

The second line played very well for the last 30 or so games including the full stretch run. And you really need to look at the reality of secondary scoring across the league. The Oilers depth scoring was at least average despite down years from guys like Nuge and Eberle.

I do agree that McLellan will move people around a lot. This is a lineup with a great deal of flexibility. He should take advantage of it.

Nuge scored 43 points Fourier. Lucic got a lot of his points on the PP and Eberle needed a nice stat padding game against Vancouver just to get to 50. They were outscored by the bushels up until that late stretch. I don't have any interest in seeing that again this season and seeing Nuge's value plummet even further.

 

[shoop]

But isn't that what's best for the team: Maximizing McDavid's and Draisaitl's production?

Considering your # 2 and 3 centres are RNH and Strome, they should be able to shoulder the secondary scoring, and it's not like they'll be without support on theit wings.

Is it short-term or long-term production you want to maximize?

Drai has the skill set to eventually be a top-tier 2C in this league which is way more valuable than a 1 RW.

Short-term pain of having him start the season as the 2C when you can use Nuge/Strome in emergencies. Then when Nuge is traded at the TDL or next off-season then Drai is a C for the rest of his career.

 

[Weitz]

Is it short-term or long-term production you want to maximize?

Drai has the skill set to eventually be a top-tier 2C in this league which is way more valuable than a 1 RW.

Short-term pain of having him start the season as the 2C when you can use Nuge/Strome in emergencies. Then when Nuge is traded at the TDL or next off-season then Drai is a C for the rest of his career.

You want to maximize wins. Who cares about production.

 

[shoop]

You want to maximize wins. Who cares about production.

Then have Drai play 2C. Wins that counted the most, i.e. in the playoffs, came when he played that role.

 

[Fourier]

Nuge scored 43 points Fourier. Lucic got a lot of his points on the PP and Eberle needed a nice stat padding game against Vancouver just to get to 50. They were outscored by the bushels up until that late stretch. I don't have any interest in seeing that again this season and seeing Nuge's value plummet even further.

How many people do you think scored 43 points this year? There were 125 forwards with more than 43 points last year. That is an average of 4 per team. Nuge was 5th on the Oilers:

Here are the point totals for the median numbers in the following groups of forwards:

Top 30 scorers ----Median =70 points ----McDavid =100

31-60 -----Median=59 points ----Draisaitl=77

61-90----Median=53 points ----Eberle=51

91-120----Median=46.5 points ----Lucic=50 points

121-150----Median=41 Points ----Nuge =43points

151-180----Median= 34.5points----Maroon=41 points.

Then you have guys like Letestu and Kassian scoring above their typical piers.

Of course some of this is the McDavid effect but the reality is that few teams have much scoring depth.

The whole, they were outscored by bushels until the end of the year is false. There was a stretch of about 15 or so games from late mid November to Mid December when this happened. For example from Dec 19 onwards Nuge, who is a pretty good proxy for how much the second line was being outscored, was a negative 13 times and was more than -1 once. He had a positive +/- 10 times over the same period. his while typically playing against the oppositions top line. That's a 49 games stretch where the second line is basically a wash vs its opposition.

If the Oilers #2 line can play against the opposition's top 2 lines and come out a wash the Oilers are in great shape because a line with McDavid and Draisaitl will outscore their opposition much more frequently at ES and the Oilers pp vs pk should be a net positive.

 

[CupofOil]

How many people do you think scored 43 points this year? There were 125 forwards with more than 43 points last year. That is an average of 4 per team. Nuge was 5th on the Oilers:

Here are the point totals for the median numbers in the following groups of forwards:

Top 30 scorers ----Median =70 points ----McDavid =100

31-60 -----Median=59 points ----Draisaitl=77

61-90----Median=53 points ----Eberle=51

91-120----Median=46.5 points ----Lucic=50 points

121-150----Median=41 Points ----Nuge =43points

151-180----Median= 34.5points----Maroon=41 points.

Then you have guys like Letestu and Kassian scoring above their typical piers.

Of course some of this is the McDavid effect but the reality is that few teams have much scoring depth.

The whole, they were outscored by bushels until the end of the year is false. There was a stretch of about 15 or so games from late mid November to Mid December when this happened. For example from Dec 19 onwards Nuge, who is a pretty good proxy for how much the second line was being outscored, was a negative 13 times and was more than -1 once. He had a positive +/- 10 times over the same period. his while typically playing against the oppositions top line. That's a 49 games stretch where the second line is basically a wash vs its opposition.

If the Oilers #2 line can play against the opposition's top 2 lines and come out a wash the Oilers are in great shape because a line with McDavid and Draisaitl will outscore their opposition much more frequently at ES and the Oilers pp vs pk should be a net positive.

43 points is pretty poor for a scoring 2nd line center who is average in every other area of his game. Sorry but there's no other way to spin it. Mclellan made mentions throughout the year about the need for secondary offense and not getting it.
I think even the biggest RNH fans admitted throughout the year last season that he wasn't good enough, same goes for Eberle and quite frankly, Lucic as well at even strength. If RNH has another season like the last two, it might be tough to move his contract for any real value.

They definitely picked it up in crunch time which was great to see but they will need more from the 2nd line this season on a consistent basis if they are to duplicate last seasons' success. Having a handful of players carry the team again this season won't cut it. By and large, it was a poor year for the 2nd and 3rd lines last season.