Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Select 4th Overall

[bucks_oil]

This one even says Katz!

(hey... wow... that worked. I honestly don't know that I've ever posted a pic before!)

 

[Aceboogie]

Down 99% to 1%. Someone needs to photoshop Chiarellis face onto the winners face, Shannys to to the losers face and Austin Matthews on the last ace

 

[MPStoEberletoHall*]

Wow. I see PLD is running away with the 4th spot in the polls.

Who do you guys pick at #4?

 

[Mr Positive]

Yup and if you've played the draft lottery simulator it looks like the most likely spot we draft in is #4 followed by 5 but we have a fair chance of anywhere from 1-5.

But 4th and 5th have the greatest odds

 

[Stud Muffin]

Wow. I see PLD is running away with the 4th spot in the polls.

Who do you guys pick at #4?

Trade it, or Juolevi/Sergachev

 

[Joey Moss]

Wow. I see PLD is running away with the 4th spot in the polls.

Who do you guys pick at #4?

Was on the Juolevi train, now I'm leaning toward Sergachev. I probably won't have any complaints as long as we take a defenseman. Chychrun is my least favourite but I'd be fine with it.

 

[fancy dan]

what are the individual probabilities of the oilers picking 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th?

 

[Stud Muffin]

what are the individual probabilities of the oilers picking 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th?

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

 

[Mr Positive]

edit: Beaten to it!

 

[MPStoEberletoHall*]

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

Man I want a top 3 pick badly. It would almost guarantee Eberle + Yak are traded imo.

 

[SDig14]

Wow. I see PLD is running away with the 4th spot in the polls.

Who do you guys pick at #4?

I'm happy with any of the top 3, PLD, Chychrun or Sergachev.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

So.... should we have a GDT for the lottery or what?

I mean I for one am hoping we get #2 or 3... I would feel... less shame.

But on the off chance we win again, it might be nice to have a troll-worthy thread made by one of you artsy types... some clips from gambling flicks, or some epic poker beat downs... etc.

I say the mods reopen the McDavid thread so we can relive our glory.

 

[Gambl0r83*]

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

I ran it 5 times, 4 of the 5 times the Oilers were picking 4th and one time 3rd.
First year this ever happened.
Every year that we've won it, I hit the Oilers at least 2 of the 5 times on this simulator, winning the 1st overall pick. I know, it's just a stupid simulator, but it's been right so far in my experience.
We were shocked to win 2012 and 2015 lottery. No one was expecting to win those years, at all.
Now, as it seems, fans are actually expecting to win the lottery. We're so used to drafting 1st overall, we think we've already been entitled to picking this year because it's become routine.

This is the year, where the Oilers get screwed. People hated me in the beginning of the year when I said McDavid would get injured for at least 25 games. And people will hate me now for guaranteeing we will not win the lottery, not even 2nd place

My prediction. Toronto wins, and Calgary win 2nd
And we get exactly what I would pick 1st overall anyway, Chychrun, the next OEL in my opinion

 

[MessierII]

When I ran the simulator about 10 times we were either 1st or second half the time we were 4th and 5th once.

 

[Aerchon]

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

I ran it 5 times, 4 of the 5 times the Oilers were picking 4th and one time 3rd.
First year this ever happened.
Every year that we've won it, I hit the Oilers at least 2 of the 5 times on this simulator, winning the 1st overall pick. I know, it's just a stupid simulator, but it's been right so far in my experience.
We were shocked to win 2012 and 2015 lottery. No one was expecting to win those years, at all.
Now, as it seems, fans are actually expecting to win the lottery. We're so used to drafting 1st overall, we think we've already been entitled to picking this year because it's become routine.

This is the year, where the Oilers get screwed. People hated me in the beginning of the year when I said McDavid would get injured for at least 25 games. And people will hate me now for guaranteeing we will not win the lottery, not even 2nd place

My prediction. Toronto wins, and Calgary win 2nd
And we get exactly what I would pick 1st overall anyway, Chychrun, the next OEL in my opinion

First time for me.

I agree that too many on this board think we will beat the odds again which is bad for Karma.

However I can't shake this feeling that the Oilers will again get first overall. For me thats something I think will cause the Oilers grief from the league. Something I am sick of...

I ran the simulation once and got Oilers, Avalanche, and Columbus...

At least my experience counters yours.

 

[Nunymare]

Got the Oilers on my first try too.

 

[redgrant]

1st or second im good with. Laine is a cant miss forward.

 

[Tyrolean]

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

What a travesty of a draft. The team that finishes last has a better chance of picking 4th than 1st.

If the 14th worst team wins it, there will be howls to change it again.

 

[McDoused]

Man I want a top 3 pick badly. It would almost guarantee Eberle + Yak are traded imo.

I've seen this sentiment on the boards quite a bit and frankly, I just don't understand the logic in it. It seems like Eberle and Yakupov are everyone's whipping boys. I mean, does putting a 18 year old Laine as a first line RW instead of a proven 70 point player like Eberle? Let's say hypothetically that Eberle is traded and Laine is our first line RW. This team is worse next year, maybe better at forward in the future and Laine does nothing to help with the defence. Posters suffer from shiny toy syndrome. Their is no guarantee that Laine will be any better than Yakupov, let alone Eberle. Hell, people were counting their chickens when we drafted Yak. We want to do the same with Laine?

Most posters then rebuttal with "But we can trade Eberle to get a defenceman". I mean this is all great if a trade can be had. First off, that's a really big IF. Teams are trading away top paring defenceman. At best we would get a number 2 for Eberle (along with other picks and prospects) and maybe a number 4 for Yakupov (which doesn't seem super likely at this point). Secondly ask yourself this, if Laine is going to be better than Eberle for the foreseeable future, why would a team want Eberle? Why wouldn't they ask for the pick? Doesn't the pick hold more value? Sure, you might be able to get a Vatanen for Eberle. How many years of Vatanen do you get? Is he going to be a better long term answer then Chychrun? That pick holds more value and a better chance at getting a dman. We should throw that away because Laine might be a better RW then Eberle? Finally, and most importantly, if a deal were to be had why is it mutually exclusive? Why couldn't we just trade Eberle for Hamonic/Vatanen or whomever AND draft a stud dman? Don't give me all that l, were loaded on the left side crap. Chychrun makes those LHD expendable, not the other way around.

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I've seen this sentiment on the boards quite a bit and frankly, I just don't understand the logic in it. It seems like Eberle and Yakupov are everyone's whipping boys. I mean, does putting a 18 year old Laine as a first line RW instead of a proven 70 point player like Eberle? Let's say hypothetically that Eberle is traded and Laine is our first line RW. This team is worse next year, maybe better at forward in the future and Laine does nothing to help with the defence. Posters suffer from shiny toy syndrome. Their is no guarantee that Laine will be any better than Yakupov, let alone Eberle. Hell, people were counting their chickens when we drafted Yak. We want to do the same with Laine?

Most posters then rebuttal with "But we can trade Eberle to get a defenceman". I mean this is all great if a trade can be had. First off, that's a really big IF. Teams are trading away top paring defenceman. At best we would get a number 2 for Eberle (along with other picks and prospects) and maybe a number 4 for Yakupov (which doesn't seem super likely at this point). Secondly ask yourself this, if Laine is going to be better than Eberle for the foreseeable future, why would a team want Eberle? Why wouldn't they ask for the pick? Doesn't the pick hold more value? Sure, you might be able to get a Vatanen for Eberle. How many years of Vatanen do you get? Is he going to be a better long term answer then Chychrun? That pick holds more value and a better chance at getting a dman. We should throw that away because Laine might be a better RW then Eberle? Finally, and most importantly, if a deal were to be had why is it mutually exclusive? Why couldn't we just trade Eberle for Hamonic/Vatanen or whomever AND draft a stud dman? Don't give me all that l, were loaded on the left side crap. Chychrun makes those LHD expendable, not the other way around.

Shiny new toy syndrome is far less concerning to me than the insanity of trying a broken combination again and again.

We could also be trading Nuge/Hall as well. And I would be fine with that to fix the defense. If Edmonton had a strong defense, capable of transitioning the puck, they will score more goals next year, even with the loss of a few of those players. (especially since Yak doesn't provide much now anyways).

Then there is addition by subtraction. The more people prone to the losing culture that you can move in a good hockey deal, the better.

Also, if there is one area we have to be young in, I would much rather it be forwards than D. They develop much quicker. McDavid/Draisaitl/Laine + Hall/Nuge is the best young offensive core in a decade. Laine could also very well outscore Eberle right away. Mcdavid as an 18/19 year old was already the best player on this team. Laine isn't that good, but he's still special.

Finally, there are many more veteran options to plug offensive holes created in trades via free agency. Eriksson, Ladd, Lucic, Okposo etc.

 

[McDoused]

Shiny new toy syndrome is far less concerning to me than the insanity of trying a broken combination again and again.

We could also be trading Nuge/Hall as well. And I would be fine with that to fix the defense. If Edmonton had a strong defense, capable of transitioning the puck, they will score more goals next year, even with the loss of a few of those players. (especially since Yak doesn't provide much now anyways).

Then there is addition by subtraction. The more people prone to the losing culture that you can move in a good hockey deal, the better.

Also, if there is one area we have to be young in, I would much rather it be forwards than D. They develop much quicker. McDavid/Draisaitl/Laine + Hall/Nuge is the best young offensive core in a decade. Laine could also very well outscore Eberle right away. Mcdavid as an 18/19 year old was already the best player on this team. Laine isn't that good, but he's still special.

Finally, there are many more veteran options to plug offensive holes created in trades via free agency. Eriksson, Ladd, Lucic, Okposo etc.

I'm not entirely sure your reasoning supports your claim. If offensive holes are easier to find for wingers, why are we still drafting Laine? Why wouldn't we draft a dman or trade that pick for a dman? We can just sign a UFA to replace Eberle/Laine.

Your statement about where it is best to be young is also a trap. Sure, I'd rather have younger forwards then dmen as a general rule of thumb. The thing is, we don't have to be young in any area. We can sign veteran forwards and acquire veteran defence. Even so, we are already young at forward and defence. Drafting a forward over a dman because he can contribute sooner isn't a great reason. I've been saying this since 2008 when we drafted Eberle over Carlson.

The addition by subtraction is the part I really have a problem with. If we were to waive Eberle, do you really think we are a better team? I know fans are frustrated with players but Eberle is one of the few players that has produced during his time with the Oilers. I'm not saying he shouldn't be traded in the right deal but what you want to say is "shake things up". Addition by subtraction might apply to a guy like Justin Schultz because he was passed by everyone in the depth chart. No one has passed Eberle on the depth chart.

If you want to improve the defence first, then why are you drafting Laine? It just doesn't make any sense.

 

[Canovin]

I got Cgy, Edm and then Columbus on the first try. I actually would like this. Would heat up the rivalry real nice

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

I'm not entirely sure your reasoning supports your claim. If offensive holes are easier to find for wingers, why are we still drafting Laine? Why wouldn't we draft a dman or trade that pick for a dman? We can just sign a UFA to replace Eberle/Laine.

Your statement about where it is best to be young is also a trap. Sure, I'd rather have younger forwards then dmen as a general rule of thumb. The thing is, we don't have to be young in any area. We can sign veteran forwards and acquire veteran defence. Even so, we are already young at forward and defence. Drafting a forward over a dman because he can contribute sooner isn't a great reason. I've been saying this since 2008 when we drafted Eberle over Carlson.

The addition by subtraction is the part I really have a problem with. If we were to waive Eberle, do you really think we are a better team? I know fans are frustrated with players but Eberle is one of the few players that has produced during his time with the Oilers. I'm not saying he shouldn't be traded in the right deal but what you want to say is "shake things up". Addition by subtraction might apply to a guy like Justin Schultz because he was passed by everyone in the depth chart. No one has passed Eberle on the depth chart.

If you want to improve the defence first, then why are you drafting Laine? It just doesn't make any sense.

I made that very clear. It's better be to be young up front than young on the back end. You're waiting 3-5 years most likely before Chychrun makes a meaningful impact. Laine can step in and make that impact right away.

Our problem in the past wasn't that we were drafting forwards, it was that we did nothing to fix the defense. Ship out forwards to to fix the D, and the offense will be very easy to rebuild after.

Addition by subtraction does work because we aren't giving away Eberle for free. We are giving up a player all too comfortable with the losing culture for one who wont be.

I think its your reasoning that doesn't support your claim

 

[Aceboogie]

1st try:

Edmonton
Columbus
New Jersey

Best outcome by a mile

 

[Paralyzer]

http://nhllotterysimulator.com/

I ran it 5 times, 4 of the 5 times the Oilers were picking 4th and one time 3rd.
First year this ever happened.
Every year that we've won it, I hit the Oilers at least 2 of the 5 times on this simulator, winning the 1st overall pick. I know, it's just a stupid simulator, but it's been right so far in my experience.
We were shocked to win 2012 and 2015 lottery. No one was expecting to win those years, at all.
Now, as it seems, fans are actually expecting to win the lottery. We're so used to drafting 1st overall, we think we've already been entitled to picking this year because it's become routine.

This is the year, where the Oilers get screwed. People hated me in the beginning of the year when I said McDavid would get injured for at least 25 games. And people will hate me now for guaranteeing we will not win the lottery, not even 2nd place

My prediction. Toronto wins, and Calgary win 2nd
And we get exactly what I would pick 1st overall anyway, Chychrun, the next OEL in my opinion

Ran it 10 times. Love the results only because of the Leafs. Hated the fact the Flames were top 3 7 times out of 10...