Prospect Info: Draft Thread | Oilers Hold The 4th Overall Selection

[Aequitas]

Honest question. Where do you see RNH going if he was in this year's draft?

I don't know are you using hindsight or using his draft numbers. If you use his draft numbers he would probably be in the 4-7 range.

Rnh 69 31 75 106
Dubois 62 42 57 99

They are similar in offense I could see Dubois going ahead due to size but they would be close.

The point isn't to say Dubois is garbage or that Rnh is or will be better than him. The point is (and there is mountains of evidence to back this up) That until someone proves what they bring in the nhl you cannot expect ANYTHING. People thought Erik Johnson was the best defenseman in his draft year (and player for that matter) and he wasn't. People thought Stefan was that player and he was a complete miss. The top 10 selections are your best bet for return but it is not guaranteed no matter how much you want to close your eyes and say it is.

 

[Roof Daddy]

Yaks was the next Pavel Bure... untill....

Too funny, every wants Nuge out cause they see a super star in Dubious. First Nuge is 22, he isn't 35. Second he is a very good NHL center, he hasn't lived up to his potential just yet, but you have to be very happy with him. There is no reason to be so down on Nuge and think Dubious could just take his place and be a big upgrade.

I like Nuge and all, but it's a question of whether he's a guy Chia likes moving forward. It's also a question of what assets we currently have are capable of landing a high end RHD. In the case of pursuing Hamonic, Nuge might be the only piece that is deemed expendable that could complete the deal.

I don't think it necessarily comes down to favouring PLD over Nuge currently, but IF (big if) PLD fulfills his potential then you've definitely got a better player than Nuge down the road. While we're waiting for that to happen we can potentially fill the void with a UFA like Eriksson. If Nuge is going to play wing anyway, why not trade him and replace him with somebody better in that role anyway?

 

[McDrai]

I think Dubois is the safe pick. High IQ is hard to teach and it seems like he has it, plus the added size and 2 way play is a nice bonus. We need more defensively responsible players on this team if we are to improve

 

[Mcnotloilersfan]

It's kind of interesting the more I think about it. I feel like we got the 1st pick in another 2011 type draft.

The 3 lottery picks are all set in stone. Those guys are above and beyond the rest of the class. In terms of potential I see

Tkachuk/Dubois = RNH/Landeskog
Nylander = Huberdeau
Chychrun = Larsson (top defender who failed to impress down the stretch)
Sergacheyov/Juolevi = Hamilton/Brodin

 

[MessierII]

I don't feel like Dubois is guaranteed to be anything. Could end up a bigger Pouliot not that that's a bad thing but he's not what we need.

 

[Speed220DChalavan]

I don't feel like Dubois is guaranteed to be anything. Could end up a bigger Pouliot not that that's a bad thing but he's not what we need.

Comparison by nationality/region always strikes me as lazy.

Dubois has alot going for him - and by the sounds of it (via Stauffer), if the Oilers stay at 4th, he is the front runner to be picked at 4th although Tkachuk is also being considered.

1. Size
2. Age - one of the younger high end players. Late June birthday which suggests more development to come.
3. Pushed the river on his team. 20 points over the next highest scorer.
4. Ability to score goals. He'll be picking corners with McDavid dishing out passes in relatively short order.

You're probably looking at David Perron worse case comparable, and James Neal/Jamie Benn best case.

I don't think there's much room for debate or need to overthink it. Move a guy like Eberle for D, sign a UFA winger to replace him. The defencemen in this year's class all have too many question marks surrounding them.

You can't outsmart the market.

You just can't.

 

[SDig14]

I don't feel like Dubois is guaranteed to be anything. Could end up a bigger Pouliot not that that's a bad thing but he's not what we need.

We don't need big players with positional versatility that can score, make plays and play physical?

 

[MessierII]

We don't need big players with positional versatility that can score, make plays and play physical?

He's not overly physical and he's not guaranteed to be a high end scorer. There's a reason he's distinctly behind the two Finns. We need to trade down or trade outright. Address the freaking blue line for god sakes. I was all for one of the Finns if we landed top 3 but no one else in this draft is a sure shot and I'm done gambling on young players here. We need two not one two top 4 right D this offseason. We aren't getting them for Eberle and Yak. One of Nuge, Hall or the pick needs to go for this to be a playoff team this next season so pick your poison.

 

[nexttothemoon]

I actually love the debate that this #4 pick has given us... conversations and debates will be a lot more interesting (and sometimes combative) now over the next ~ 2 months instead of boring and obvious if the Oilers had landed a top 2/3 pick.

 

[SDig14]

He's not overly physical and he's not guaranteed to be a high end scorer. There's a reason he's distinctly behind the two Finns. We need to trade down or trade outright. Address the freaking blue line for god sakes. I was all for one of the Finns if we landed top 3 but no one else in this draft is a sure shot and I'm done gambling on young players here. We need two not one two top 4 right D this offseason. We aren't getting them for Eberle and Yak. One of Nuge, Hall or the pick needs to go for this to be a playoff team this next season so pick your poison.

I agree. I just do think he's the type of player we need to move towards.

I'm all for trading 2 or 3 of RNH, Eberle, 4th overall and Yak to address the defense.

Buy I'm also comfortable making the pick if we get bad offers. And I'm not taking a dman at 4 because I don't think any of them will be the best player there.

If I could move down to 8 and how Sergachev or Chychrun I would do it, but I'm afraid we won't get enough in return to trade down.

 

[Raab]

Wow, I just came back from the Main Boards from a thread called "Matthews/Marner = Toews/Kane" and I don't know if all the guys I talked to are trolls or just VERY informed fans. They are praising Marner like he IS Patrick Kane and I just tell them about the whole Rob Schremp story we went through and how he ripped it up in the OHL and he was gonna be this star player. All they could tell me was:

"Oh Marner makes everyone better around him, unlike Schremp. He had help."

"Schremp didn't make the NHL because of Schremp. Marner is different."

And all they could come up with was "He has a 2.0 PPG in the OHL and he almost broke the OHL record for most points". All I told them was points don't mean the player will translate to the NHL like a star. There is other factors too. But they are too delusional to see what I am trying to tell them. Oh well. They are setting themselves up for a HUGE disappointment if they don't get 70+ points from Marner and 90-100 points from Matthews

Marner is WAY better then Schremp ever was. Bolland and Perry were the two that stirred the drink on that team. Schremp had more points but when you watched it was obvious the other two would be better players. Marner is damn good, only thing holding him back will be size.

 

[Raab]

This is like saying if a better skating Monahan makes it to the NHL. DuBois is not some chop liver we are talking here.

Dubois is not as good as Monahan.

 

[Raab]

Honest question. Where do you see RNH going if he was in this year's draft?

RNH would go 2nd or 3rd depending on team need. It's not like he was chopped liver in junior. My problem with RNH was that he was going to take 5 years to reach his potential. I'd give him another year or two and you might be surprised by what he turns into. Right now is absolutely the worst time to deal RNH unless a very significant piece is coming back.

 

[Soundwave]

Dubois is not as good as Monahan.

We sure about that?

Monahan draft year - 58GP, 31G, 47A, 78 PTS, -18, 1.34 PPG

Dubois draft year - 62GP, 42G, 57A, 99 PTS, +40, 1.596 PPG

That was also Monahan's third full year of junior, this is only Dubois' second.

Dubois is already bigger than Monahan too ... already over 200 pounds, whereas Monahan is about 193.

 

[Canovin]

Dubois is not as good as Monahan.

Monahan is not as good as RNH? I heard this before. Look at Monahan now

RNH would go 2nd or 3rd depending on team need. It's not like he was chopped liver in junior. My problem with RNH was that he was going to take 5 years to reach his potential. I'd give him another year or two and you might be surprised by what he turns into. Right now is absolutely the worst time to deal RNH unless a very significant piece is coming back.

I don't think you're being honest

If we are going to do a waiting game it's for DuBois. I have more faith for a 18 year old DuBois who have something to prove over RNH who already made his millions. Just look at the intensity RNH plays with versus his rookie year. Same with Ebs.

When all are equal, you take the bigger and faster player.

 

[Raab]

We sure about that?

Monahan draft year - 58GP, 31G, 47A, 78 PTS, -18, 1.34 PPG

Dubois draft year - 62GP, 42G, 57A, 99 PTS, +40, 1.596 PPG

That was also Monahan's third full year of junior, this is only Dubois' second.

Dubois is already bigger than Monahan too ... already over 200 pounds, whereas Monahan is about 193.

Points from different leagues are almost irrelevant. From what I've seen of Dubois, I'm not even half as impressed as I was of Monahan. Monahan had better positioning, better shot and was/is as good of a skater. Only thing Dubois has on Monahan is his size.

 

[Raab]

Monahan is not as good as RNH? I heard this before. Look at Monahan now




I don't think you're being honest

If we are going to do a waiting game it's for DuBois. I have more faith for a 18 year old DuBois who have something to prove over RNH who already made his millions. Just look at the intensity RNH plays with versus his rookie year. Same with Ebs.

When all are equal, you take the bigger and faster player.

I said it back in 2011, if we took RNH he was going to take at least 5 years before he hit his potential. I said it because of his size, I figured it'd take him a few years before he could really bulk up and get stronger. Its worth noting that Nuge has had some injuries as well which have set him back. I still think that in a year or two guys may look back and regret moving him if we do.

The reason I also didn't like him in junior was that he wasn't a driver like I said. But that doesn't mean he's a useless bum we should just get rid of. I still believe he could be a very valuable member of this team. I still see him as a Statsny type player at some point.

 

[AvOiL]

Points from different leagues are almost irrelevant. From what I've seen of Dubois, I'm not even half as impressed as I was of Monahan. Monahan had better positioning, better shot and was/is as good of a skater. Only thing Dubois has on Monahan is his size.

Then adjust these numbers with NHLE (0.30 for OHL and 0.28 for QMJHL). Dubois still wins out by this metric.

I'm not saying Dubois will be better than Monahan - I haven't seen enough of him to make this determination. But I don't think it's out of the question he could put up similar numbers.

 

[VainGretzky]

Due to a impending expansion draft and the quality of the top 5 players in the draft this pick has value of a 2nd overall pick in other draft years why Chia was approached right after draft. imo.

 

[Soundwave]

Points from different leagues are almost irrelevant. From what I've seen of Dubois, I'm not even half as impressed as I was of Monahan. Monahan had better positioning, better shot and was/is as good of a skater. Only thing Dubois has on Monahan is his size.

https://youtu.be/hP2TGCc7if0?t=3m16s

Look pretty impressive to me. And again Dubois has only had 2 years of junior, whereas Monahan had three before his draft year, a huge difference.

 

[Raab]

Then adjust these numbers with NHLE (0.30 for OHL and 0.28 for QMJHL). Dubois still wins out by this metric.

I'm not saying Dubois will be better than Monahan - I haven't seen enough of him to make this determination. But I don't think it's out of the question he could put up similar numbers.

Still a lot of other things to consider when you just look at points. Like line mates, PP time, etc... I prefer to look at where the player scores from and the type of goals they score. For me Monahan was better in positioning and had a better wrister. I would not expect a 25+ goal 60 point+ campaign out of Dubois.

 

[Aerchon]

Points from different leagues are almost irrelevant. From what I've seen of Dubois, I'm not even half as impressed as I was of Monahan. Monahan had better positioning, better shot and was/is as good of a skater. Only thing Dubois has on Monahan is his size.

Monahan was a player we all wanted over Nurse and rightly so but its terrible how often people exagerate because of hindsight.

Monahans offense was not considered anything more than that of a #2/3 center. His overall game was projected to be a solid if unspectacular guy. His skating average from what I recall.

Watching him play now I see little of a two way player and far more offense than anyone inagined.

A guy like Marincin was touted a offensive defenseman/PP quarterback but ended up a stunningly solid defensive defenseman with no offense.

There is no doubt Dubios is better than Monahan in thier draft year. But now Monahan has exceeded all draft expectations and because he is more of a known commodity, he "should" have the better career.

Its so random how all this goes down.

 

[Canovin]

https://youtu.be/hP2TGCc7if0?t=3m16s

Look pretty impressive to me. And again Dubois has only had 2 years of junior, whereas Monahan had three before his draft year, a huge difference.

It's also worth noting that Monahan was one of the oldest in his draft year. Dubois is one of the youngest

 

[Raab]

Monahan was a player we all wanted over Nurse and rightly so but its terrible how often people exagerate because of hindsight.

Monahans offense was not considered anything more than that of a #2/3 center. His overall game was projected to be a solid if unspectacular guy. His skating average from what I recall.

Watching him play now I see little of a two way player and far more offense than anyone inagined.

A guy like Marincin was touted a offensive defenseman/PP quarterback but ended up a stunningly solid defensive defenseman with no offense.

There is no doubt Dubios is better than Monahan in thier draft year. But now Monahan has exceeded all draft expectations and because he is more of a known commodity, he "should" have the better career.

Its so random how all this goes down.

Monahan was being touted as a Toews lite. I think he has exceeded expectation but not by much. I think Monahan was being looked at as a 20-25 goal and 30-40 assist guy who could play the 200 foot game. He's exceeded that by a bit since the scoring is down now from what it was, but its not an outrageous amount.

 

[Aceboogie]

Monahan has been lugged around by gaudreau. He is pretty bad defensively and inflated numbers. He was/is a bad skater. Dubious is already a much better skater and more offensive