Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19

[Edge]

I don't think its that good of a draft. Maybe above average, but I don't think we can write off the importance of picking in the first few picks of the draft. This team needs top 3 talents added to the team. Adding guys like Andersson and Kravtsov definitely helps, but if this team doesn't start adding the Dahlin's and Svechnikov's, we aren't going to be on the trajectory teams like Toronto and Winnipeg are on now.

Personally, I don’t think 2019 has the depth of 2018 — which was pretty extensive by most draft standards.

But right now, I like the top of the ‘19 draft more than I liked the top of the ‘18 draft at the same some point in the preseason. We’ll see if that holds true as the season progresses.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Personally, I don’t think 2019 has the depth of 2018 — which was pretty extensive by most draft standards.

But right now, I like the top of the ‘19 draft more than I liked the top of the ‘18 draft at the same some point in the preseason. We’ll see if that holds true as the season progresses.

Thats interesting. I think its the exact opposite. I don't see anyone in 2019 who matches Dahlin, and I think Svechnikov would've been good competition at 1OA in 2019.

I tend to think that 2018 had pretty weak depth for a draft that gets a good reputation. I think it was mostly because the reputation of the draft was great initially, but I thought it faded eventually.

I don't think 2019 has any generational talents or players all that close to it, but I think it has very good forward depth. The defensemen are weak, but we'll see how it develops. It might look different at the draft. Goalies also look pretty strong.

 

[Edge]

Thats interesting. I think its the exact opposite. I don't see anyone in 2019 who matches Dahlin, and I think Svechnikov would've been good competition at 1OA in 2019.

I tend to think that 2018 had pretty weak depth for a draft that gets a good reputation. I think it was mostly because the reputation of the draft was great initially, but I thought it faded eventually.

I don't think 2019 has any generational talents or players all that close to it, but I think it has very good forward depth. The defensemen are weak, but we'll see how it develops. It might look different at the draft. Goalies also look pretty strong.

I think it all comes down to how you view the top.

You're not a big fan of Hughes, and that changes the entire landscape of everything that falls in line around him.

On the other hand, if someone thinks Hughes is on the Matthews' type plateau, and there are a number of potential first line centers available in the top 5-10, then that's likely to paint a drastically different picture.

As for the generational talent argument, I don't think 2019 has the next McDavid or Dahlin. But I do think there are players in the ranges of Matthews, Eichel, Laine, Marner, MacKinnon, Barkov, etc. --- at least at this point. Obviously, a lot depends on the season progresses.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

The depth in potential elite prospects is what has me thinking this is a very strong draft right now. We're still a full season out though so lots can obviously change.

 

[Mac n Gs]

The depth in potential elite prospects is what has me thinking this is a very strong draft right now. We're still a full season out though so lots can obviously change.

How are you defining depth here? Are you referring to the very high upside within the top-10, or do you see this draft being deeper than last year? I'd agree that there appears to be better overall talent, but 2018 has a lot of similarities to the 2015 draft. I wouldn't be surprised to see it play out in a similar way with talent coming from each round.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

How are you defining depth here? Are you referring to the very high upside within the top-10, or do you see this draft being deeper than last year? I'd agree that there appears to be better overall talent, but 2018 has a lot of similarities to the 2015 draft. I wouldn't be surprised to see it play out in a similar way with talent coming from each round.

The first option I think it's deep with high end talent from the looks of things, so a deep top 10-15.

Both 2017 and 2018 were very deep drafts as a whole though, not sure this is as deep as we go into day 2.

 

[Joey Bones]

Not really have been impressed by Kakko, and TPS as a whole, in Champions. Hasn't primarily shown any offensive ability thus far. It's early, but he could very well drop in the rankings.

 

[Ola]

I think it all comes down to how you view the top.

You're not a big fan of Hughes, and that changes the entire landscape of everything that falls in line around him.

On the other hand, if someone thinks Hughes is on the Matthews' type plateau, and there are a number of potential first line centers available in the top 5-10, then that's likely to paint a drastically different picture.

As for the generational talent argument, I don't think 2019 has the next McDavid or Dahlin. But I do think there are players in the ranges of Matthews, Eichel, Laine, Marner, MacKinnon, Barkov, etc. --- at least at this point. Obviously, a lot depends on the season progresses.

I also think those potential first line centers really must be scrutinized. Look back at 10 older drafts or whatever, those potential No 1 Cs are pretty rare and can fall really heavy (besides the 90'-91' and 05'-06' drafts it can't be that common with 3+ top centers in a year)...

From a macro perspective the key to this draft is certainly Canada. Canada always produces great hockey players, but that program's top years also differs a lot from its worst years. There have been some crops of Canadian kids that could have a really meager output compared to what that program potentially can produce. One example I often look at is the 99' draft. The top three Canadian kids eligble for the 99' draft turned out to be Tim Connoly, Ryan Malone and Mike Comrie in order.

The Canadian program can be kind of hard to read because the individual performance of these kids are pretty consistent. Facts are that NHL teams -- never -- have been able to call out the real down years from the Canadian program. Top kids will score great numbers in the OHL/WHL/QMJHL no matter if they are great NHL prospects or not. I have not been blown away by the Canadian kids the last two years, but they have still been drafted really really high. The jury is out on them, will the Villardi's, Glass's, Hayton's, Bouchard's, Dobson's, Makar's and the likes become big stars in the NHL? Sweden is weak this year. Russia is at least not really strong. Finland is OK to great, who knows what their top kids as of late will amount to. US is really strong. Is Canada really great it will be a very strong draft, but if the last years and this year are down years for the Canadian program this coming draft won't be that strong.

 

[Edge]

I also think those potential first line centers really must be scrutinized. Look back at 10 older drafts or whatever, those potential No 1 Cs are pretty rare and can fall really heavy (besides the 90'-91' and 05'-06' drafts it can't be that common with 3+ top centers in a year)...

From a macro perspective the key to this draft is certainly Canada. Canada always produces great hockey players, but that program's top years also differs a lot from its worst years. There have been some crops of Canadian kids that could have a really meager output compared to what that program potentially can produce. One example I often look at is the 99' draft. The top three Canadian kids eligble for the 99' draft turned out to be Tim Connoly, Ryan Malone and Mike Comrie in order.

The Canadian program can be kind of hard to read because the individual performance of these kids are pretty consistent. Facts are that NHL teams -- never -- have been able to call out the real down years from the Canadian program. Top kids will score great numbers in the OHL/WHL/QMJHL no matter if they are great NHL prospects or not. I have not been blown away by the Canadian kids the last two years, but they have still been drafted really really high. The jury is out on them, will the Villardi's, Glass's, Hayton's, Bouchard's, Dobson's, Makar's and the likes become big stars in the NHL? Sweden is weak this year. Russia is at least not really strong. Finland is OK to great, who knows what their top kids as of late will amount to. US is really strong. Is Canada really great it will be a very strong draft, but if the last years and this year are down years for the Canadian program this coming draft won't be that strong.

Without a doubt, you certainly have to see how everything shakes out.

I think what’s interesting about this year is the number of options from so many different leagues.

You’ve got the US program, you’ve got Canadian Major Juniors, you’ve got the BCHL, and Finland.

So when we look at the top names, there’s a lot of different potential menu options for teams.

Will they all maintain their status? A betting man would say probably not.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I will admit I’m a bit hesitant when it comes to this WHL crop. Are they actually turning a corner and cranking out good prospects again, or are these kids just better than what we’ve seen the past few years? The WHL, and to an extent the QMJHL, has been very unimpressive these past few years. When was the last good group of WHL kids? 2013?

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Every site has Turcotte at like 5'11 but if he's actually 6'2, he'll be a top 3 pick assuming he plays well this season

Hughes is the guy from the US development program but Turcotte is just below for me. I would love if they snag him.

I'm a bit leary of CHL prospects, I like US and European kids more, but the guy they just hired from the Thunderbirds knows the WHL like the back of his hand, so I'm hoping they can make more informed decisions

Podkolzin seems like a guy they'll be watching closely. But a lot can change before next summer

 

[Trxjw]

I will admit I’m a bit hesitant when it comes to this WHL crop. Are they actually turning a corner and cranking out good prospects again, or are these kids just better than what we’ve seen the past few years? The WHL, and to an extent the QMJHL, has been very unimpressive these past few years. When was the last good group of WHL kids? 2013?

2016 looks really good. I'm obviously partial to Howden, but Hajek, Bean, Clague, Johansen, Steel, Hart, and Dube in the first two rounds is pretty darn good.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Every site has Turcotte at like 5'11 but if he's actually 6'2, he'll be a top 3 pick assuming he plays well this season

Hughes is the guy from the US development program but Turcotte is just below for me. I would love if they snag him.

I'm a bit leary of CHL prospects, I like US and European kids more, but the guy they just hired from the Thunderbirds knows the WHL like the back of his hand, so I'm hoping they can make more informed decisions

Podkolzin seems like a guy they'll be watching closely. But a lot can change before next summer

I’m kind of right there with you, but after Hughes/Turcotte I really like Newhook right now

 

[Mac n Gs]

2016 looks really good. I'm obviously partial to Howden, but Hajek, Bean, Clague, Johansen, Steel, Hart, and Dube in the first two rounds is pretty darn good.

Eh, I’m a bit more bullish on that group than most probably are. I’m not the biggest fan of Johansen and Dube, and I generally don’t see any ceiling higher than 2nd liner/pairing in that group. I think they’ll be good, useful players, but that’s about it.

Hajek is my favorite out of the bunch to exceed that ceiling because I think he’s better defensively than Bean, Johansen, and Clague.

 

[Joey Bones]

@Oscar Lindberg and @GeorgeKaplan Watch out for Kirby too!! He's extremely impressive!!

 

[Joey Bones]

The more I watch him, they more I think he is deserving to be a top 10 selection!!

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Early on I’m really intriqued by Lavoie. Dach, too.

Aside from the obvious guys (Hughes, Kaako, Newhook, Turcotte)

 

[Joey Bones]

Dorofeyev was almost at PPG last season in the MHL. Could be a candidate to turn it up as the season goes on....

 

[Trxjw]

Eh, I’m a bit more bullish on that group than most probably are. I’m not the biggest fan of Johansen and Dube, and I generally don’t see any ceiling higher than 2nd liner/pairing in that group. I think they’ll be good, useful players, but that’s about it.

Hajek is my favorite out of the bunch to exceed that ceiling because I think he’s better defensively than Bean, Johansen, and Clague.

Fair assessment. Maybe I just misinterpreted your point. Which I am known to do, haha.

 

[Joey Bones]

FWIW, that 1st line for Stalnye Lisy consists of not only Pavel Dorofeyev, but potential 1st/2nd rounders Dmitri Sheshin and Yegor Spiridonov. Will be interesting to follow....

 

[Mac n Gs]

Fair assessment. Maybe I just misinterpreted your point. Which I am known to do, haha.

Nope, that’s on me for being vague in my original post. That being said, the difference between the talent coming out of the OHL relative to the rest of the CHL has been pretty staggering.

I do think Byram and Cozens have the potential to be two of the better WHL prospects of this decade, but I’m still hesitant with the rest of this group. Am I the only one that sees a lot of flash but not substance in Peyton Krebs?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Am I the only one that sees a lot of flash but not substance in Peyton Krebs?

I think he's pretty good. Hard worker, very good skater, good in all zones. I think he's skilled, but I question if he has 1C potential. Maybe more of a complimentary top line guy or a very good second liner. Cozens and Dach look like the higher upside centers of the three. All three are close. You could order them in any order, and I don't think you'd be wrong. I'd put them Cozens, Krebs, Dach for now. All within a couple of spots on my draft board though.

 

[Harbour Dog]

The more I watch him, they more I think he is deserving to be a top 10 selection!!

What are the negatives of Podkolzin's game that have him outside of the top ten? The few highlights I've seen of him make him appear to be a truly elite offensive talent.

 

[Joey Bones]

What are the negatives of Podkolzin's game that have him outside of the top ten? The few highlights I've seen of him make him appear to be a truly elite offensive talent.

I'll find out more as the season goes on, but, ATM, the only negative I see is that he hasn't had any pro experience. Seeing he's with SKA's system, he probably won't be called up to the KHL. He might get some VHL action instead, due to SKA's depth. He could very well get called up and will show more then, but all this flash and elite skill is being done in juniors.

But seeing the skillset behind the grit/relentless need for the puck is impressive. His battles are similar to Newhook's, IMO. Also like Newhook, he comes away with the puck more often than not. I don't think it'll be long for him to show it up against men.

 

[Joey Bones]

Nope, that’s on me for being vague in my original post. That being said, the difference between the talent coming out of the OHL relative to the rest of the CHL has been pretty staggering.

I do think Byram and Cozens have the potential to be two of the better WHL prospects of this decade, but I’m still hesitant with the rest of this group. Am I the only one that sees a lot of flash but not substance in Peyton Krebs?

No, I see him dropping a bit, but not out of the top 20. He's got the edge and the mind for the game, but I think he's lacking slight bit of foot speed. Or he might've not grown into his body, yet. It's kinda hard to put a reason to it, ATM. I'm sure once the season starts and there are more game videos available, we'll get a good judgement.

In the mean time, though, he's definitely an intriguing prospect....