Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19

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Its ridiculous, and its Craig Button driven. He is given a lot of respect for some reason, which I don't understand. I don't dislike the guy, but I'm certainly not trying to learn anything off what he says. A lot of fans on this website have more knowledgeable opinions than Button. From my read of Button's knowledge, I get the sense that he doesn't watch many of these players during their club seasons, and makes unnecessary judgements based on short international tournaments. He's also prone to insane judgements during these tournaments that make no sense to justify wild swing in his rankings. Last season, he used one clip where Boqvist made a bad decision at the WJC18 to justify dropping him a lot, even though he was the best defensemen at the tournament and I think any fair person would say his stock should've went up based on that tournament.

Button is the one driving Broberg and Podkolzin towards being top 5 picks. He was also the person who drove Poehling towards being like the 2nd or 3rd best player in his draft class. I mostly try to block it out. So far, I've liked Bobrov's decisions with players of his home country. I trust that he would not take Guskov, unless we are talking about 3rd or 4th round. I think our scouting department should be focused on one of the elite centers, Turcotte, Cozens, Newhook, Dach, Zegras with one of our early picks. If for some reason Hughes, Kakko or Byram, falls to our slot, I think you take them if the centers aren't there, but I think this team needs to come out of the next draft with a guy who projects as a 1C.
The weird thing is, I think Button actually has a pretty solid track record if you look at his stuff in the long term. I’d have to double check to make sure I’m not wrong there.

The tournament bias is a huge factor for a lot of people since it’s when they get to actually see these guys in action. It’s definitely why I had Podkolzin in my last post and I’ll admit my bias there.

I fully expect us to be looking at a C this season, regardless of how Lias or Chytil do. Also, please don’t make me fight you all year on the whole Hughes being a C thing. :laugh:

The top 10 is insane, even the Rangers can't screw up this time.
They didn’t screw it up last year or the year before either ;)
 
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The Rangers watching Newhook while keeping an eye on Riley Hughes just sets off bells as him being an obvious pick if he’s available when the Rangers pick.

It could also work the opposite way too though, watching him so much that they see something they really don't like. Doubtful, but something to keep in mind next year if he's on the board and we pass on him.
 
:confused:
The weird thing is, I think Button actually has a pretty solid track record if you look at his stuff in the long term. I’d have to double check to make sure I’m not wrong there.

The tournament bias is a huge factor for a lot of people since it’s when they get to actually see these guys in action. It’s definitely why I had Podkolzin in my last post and I’ll admit my bias there.

I fully expect us to be looking at a C this season, regardless of how Lias or Chytil do. Also, please don’t make me fight you all year on the whole Hughes being a C thing. :laugh:


They didn’t screw it up last year or the year before either ;)
Too soon to tell, but the early results are indeed looking good.
 
Its ridiculous, and its Craig Button driven. He is given a lot of respect for some reason, which I don't understand. I don't dislike the guy, but I'm certainly not trying to learn anything off what he says. A lot of fans on this website have more knowledgeable opinions than Button. From my read of Button's knowledge, I get the sense that he doesn't watch many of these players during their club seasons, and makes unnecessary judgements based on short international tournaments. He's also prone to insane judgements during these tournaments that make no sense to justify wild swing in his rankings. Last season, he used one clip where Boqvist made a bad decision at the WJC18 to justify dropping him a lot, even though he was the best defensemen at the tournament and I think any fair person would say his stock should've went up based on that tournament.

Button is the one driving Broberg and Podkolzin towards being top 5 picks. He was also the person who drove Poehling towards being like the 2nd or 3rd best player in his draft class. I mostly try to block it out. So far, I've liked Bobrov's decisions with players of his home country. I trust that he would not take Guskov, unless we are talking about 3rd or 4th round. I think our scouting department should be focused on one of the elite centers, Turcotte, Cozens, Newhook, Dach, Zegras with one of our early picks. If for some reason Hughes, Kakko or Byram, falls to our slot, I think you take them if the centers aren't there, but I think this team needs to come out of the next draft with a guy who projects as a 1C.
We know we won't pick Cozens, Dach, Byram and Krebs, our WHL scouts sucks. If we pick one of them we should accept the fact that he will end up a bust.
 
We know we won't pick Cozens, Dach, Byram and Krebs, our WHL scouts sucks. If we pick one of them we should accept the fact that he will end up a bust.
We overhauled our WHL scouting staff a couple of years back. Kim Gellert and Eric Doyle, who are primarily out of Kelowna and Portland, respectively.
 
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I highly doubt they'd go for another LD with some of those forwards still on the board. Has Broberg ever been close to a top-10 pick before the Hlinka? Honka will also go in the first round.

oh you know we'll do it. if anyone would pass on the star power for a LD from Sweden? it'll be us.
 
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We overhauled our WHL scouting staff a couple of years back. Kim Gellert and Eric Doyle, who are primarily out of Kelowna and Portland, respectively.
Well, can't judge them yet, but in these past couple of drafts we didn't pick one single player from the WHL.
 
Well, can't judge them yet, but in these past couple of drafts we didn't pick one single player from the WHL.
That’s probably a good thing since the crop out of the WHL has been awful these past two years outside of the obviously good players.
They probably played a big part in acquiring Hajek and Howden, so that’s how they should be judged for the time being.

oh you know we'll do it. if anyone would pass on the star power for a LD from Sweden? it'll be us.

Haven’t even played a game yet and you’re already talking down our 2019 pick? At least you’re getting ahead of the curve this year :sarcasm:
 
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The Rangers watching Newhook while keeping an eye on Riley Hughes just sets off bells as him being an obvious pick if he’s available when the Rangers pick.
The trend the last couple years has been to take guys who play against men. That and US based talent

But a lot of good players are going to be coming out of the CHL this year. I'm sure they're keeping an eye on him
 
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You know who else wasn't rated as a first round pick at the start of the year and went top 10? Cody Glass.

Getting hung up on where guys are rated now is a fools errand. 17-18 is arguably the most important development year for these kids. The rankings will change drastically, just like they always do.
 
I, too, think there is Hlinka bias to Broberg, Podkolzin and others, but it is looking really good so far for their stock. Broberg has been practicing with the big club for AIK and Podkolzin showed single handedly that he can be dominate over his age group. Both probably not top 10 picks, ATM, but it'll be an interesting to see if they do, indeed, move up the charts.
 
Holy wheels o_O



You know who else wasn't rated as a first round pick at the start of the year and went top 10? Cody Glass.

Getting hung up on where guys are rated now is a fools errand. 17-18 is arguably the most important development year for these kids. The rankings will change drastically, just like they always do.

Ryan Johansen wasn't even on the radar the summer before his draft year, also went top 10.
 
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You know who else wasn't rated as a first round pick at the start of the year and went top 10? Cody Glass.

Getting hung up on where guys are rated now is a fools errand. 17-18 is arguably the most important development year for these kids. The rankings will change drastically, just like they always do.

I don't think anyone's concerned with that. I think its a question of whether there's a real basis to decide a prospect who had a good tournament is all of a sudden top 5 when they've been visible before, and no one regarded them as such. In some cases, they weren't regarded as high-level prospects either.
 
The weird thing is, I think Button actually has a pretty solid track record if you look at his stuff in the long term. I’d have to double check to make sure I’m not wrong there.

The tournament bias is a huge factor for a lot of people since it’s when they get to actually see these guys in action. It’s definitely why I had Podkolzin in my last post and I’ll admit my bias there.

I fully expect us to be looking at a C this season, regardless of how Lias or Chytil do. Also, please don’t make me fight you all year on the whole Hughes being a C thing. :laugh:

They didn’t screw it up last year or the year before either ;)

Why look at a scouts predictions long term?

All that matters is if you agree with the consensus at the time. ;)
 
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I don't think anyone's concerned with that. I think its a question of whether there's a real basis to decide a prospect who had a good tournament is all of a sudden top 5 when they've been visible before, and no one regarded them as such. In some cases, they weren't regarded as high-level prospects either.

Recency bias is a thing for sure...

But some players see their games/bodies grow a ton at this age and sometimes a player in August/September is completely different than the one you saw in April/May.

Early rankings are usually pretty silly. I mean there are guys who are a cut above who will remain so (McEichel, Dahlin, Hughes this year) but there is always a ton of moving and shaking amongst the top 10.
 
You know who else wasn't rated as a first round pick at the start of the year and went top 10? Cody Glass.

Getting hung up on where guys are rated now is a fools errand. 17-18 is arguably the most important development year for these kids. The rankings will change drastically, just like they always do.

Exactly. Players who are now considered top-3, will drop. It happened to Chychrun, it happened to Liljegren. I remember Zadina being barely ranked in the 1st round before the 2017-18 season started and then he was the consensus 3rd overall pick halfway through. It's ridiculous to make statements now about someone not being 1st round talent, or saying the 1st round won't be good defensively
 
You know who else wasn't rated as a first round pick at the start of the year and went top 10? Cody Glass.

Getting hung up on where guys are rated now is a fools errand. 17-18 is arguably the most important development year for these kids. The rankings will change drastically, just like they always do.

I'd say most lists don't really start coming close to their final form until December --- and even then there's usually a lot of change before June.
 
I'd say most lists don't really start coming close to their final form until December --- and even then there's usually a lot of change before June.

Off the top of my head, with the 2018 draft:

Zadina was projected a fringe 1st rounder in August
Kotkaniemi was ranked around 30 in December
Kravtsov wasn't ranked in the 1st round at all
Wahlstrom was ranked top-5 all year
 
The Rangers watching Newhook while keeping an eye on Riley Hughes just sets off bells as him being an obvious pick if he’s available when the Rangers pick.

The thing that stands out with Newhook is that he has a little swagger to his game. There's a little bit of Barzal in him when he's on the ice.
 
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