Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VIII (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[Edge]

I think for one, all of us Rangers fans are hyping ourselves up for Kakko and really excited that he has played well at the WC's. Then we start thinking "he's totally the best player in the draft, why WOULDN'T NJ pick him first?"

After being convinced we'd be drafting Kakko and finding ways to make him out to be better than Hughes in our head, we've convinced ourselves that everyone else in the hockey world has the same opinion.

They're both exceptional talents who have the potential to carry a franchise on their backs.

It's always such a difficult conversation to have because, inevitably, when you compare the second best to the best, it sounds like you're shitting on the second best player.

I think Kakko is going to be a tremendous player and I think he's probably going to be better out of the gate (I've used Marleau and Thornton as a career comparison). But the overwhelming majority of people have Hughes first and Kakko second, and there's not much debate there. Certainly not to the tune of the 70-30 vote we saw for Kakko on here.

That's not an insult on Kakko by any stretch though.

 

[Levitate]

They're both exceptional talents who have the potential to carry a franchise on their backs.

It's always such a difficult conversation to have because, inevitably, when you compare the second best to the best, it sounds like you're ****ting on the second best player.

I think Kakko is going to be a tremendous player and I think he's probably going to be better out of the gate (I've used Marleau and Thornton as a career comparison). But the overwhelming majority of people have Hughes first and Kakko second, and there's not much debate there. Certainly not to the tune of the 70-30 vote we saw for Kakko on here.

That's not an insult on Kakko by any stretch though.

For sure, and the difference between them could even be very slim with Hughes getting a nod because he's a center. Lots of people would rather have a franchise center than a franchise wing (didn't Ovechkin get knocked a lot for that at least early on?).

 

[Ola]

Do...Ro...Fe...Yev...

I’ve only YT scouted him, and my view of guys usually differ pretty much between just seeing highlights and the complete game, but I would be surprised if we took him at 20. Sure he is smart and heads-up and gifted, but I just think we will look for a bit different things. And I don’t think he is so good that you can’t pass on him at 20, JMHO.

 

[Edge]

For sure, and the difference between them could even be very slim with Hughes getting a nod because he's a center. Lots of people would rather have a franchise center than a franchise wing (didn't Ovechkin get knocked a lot for that at least early on?).

I think when push comes to shove, there will be a gap there. Not an insane gap, but a noticeable one.

The thing I keep harking back to is the fact that Hughes isn't even physically developed yet. He's doing what he's doing, while still essentially having a boy's body. So if he's at least on par, if not viewed favorably now, I think there's a good chance that gap might widen (at least moderately) as Hughes develops.

I'll venture a guess that's also a factor in how they're ranked by most services as well.

 

[wafflepadsave]

I think when push comes to shove, there will be a gap there. Not an insane gap, but a noticeable one.

The thing I keep harking back to is the fact that Hughes isn't even physically developed yet. He's doing what he's doing, while still essentially having a boy's body. So if he's at least on par, if not viewed favorably now, I think there's a good chance that gap might widen (at least moderately) as Hughes develops.

I'll venture a guess that's also a factor in how they're ranked by most services as well.

Agree there. Here’s a question. With Hughes still in a boys body, is it a safer or conservative thought to let him mature another year before sending him out to the pros. Too many headhunters out there more than willing to destroy a kid before he’s fully ready and can protect himself.

 

[Ola]

I think Seider is gone, but I could see us taking him if he isn’t. There are many good Ds there.

I am not the biggest York fan, I like him, but there are so many guys to like, like him. I am like a broken record, but like look at Erik Gustafsson scoring 60 for Chicago. A Cam York has nothing that puts him ahead of someone like that even if he reach his ceiling. I rather get a Bjornfot type in the 2-3rd round.

I wouldn’t count out Lavoie, has a lot of hockey in him. Think he is held higher by the scouts than the opinionated people outside the business. His stats aren’t great, but he has a lot more hockey in them than you get from just reading the data. He isn’t that goto guy, more someone who creates openings.

I definitely think we will be interested in Ty Rees. He is another prospect the stat kids are missing. He isn’t the type who should score 1.5 PPG. Still think he will score more than many others in this draft. My personal favorite at 20.

Kaedan Korzcak is another kid I really like. He is a hard nosed no nonsense D without the puck, but he also has a lot of natural talent and handles the puck well hands down. He doesn’t have a creative offensive side, but these guys are held really high in the NHL anyway for a good reason.

I could see Vic Soderstrom dripping a bit, but I wonder how interesting he would be for us.

There will be a bunch of semi-talented scorers/prototypical offensively skilled kids available at 20, but I would really be picky when it comes to them. Bobby Brink is a kid who is really special with the puck, but his engine has big issues. Maybe if you think that a kid like that has potential to straight out their issues, you can feel comfortable enough. We don’t have anyone like him in the system. But like the average kid that plays liken. Prototypical scorer in the top junior league in Europe or the CHL or whatever just aren’t going to come close unless they have an elite skill set. Suzuki is putting up good numbers, but he has been totally irrelevant against international competition. That is were the bar is. The — elite — wheels aren’t there. Point, Barzal and the likes are having a ton of success, because they have elite wheels. Guys who don’t have elite wheels do well if they are extremely extremely gifted. Otherwise they haven’t had much success at all around the league lately. I would definitely stay away from the second rate offensive talents that at best can become poor mans RNHs...

It’s probably too high, but I wouldn’t count out Karl Henriksson.

 

[Ola]

BTW that TSN mock is just not good. I bet my right arm that plenty of those CHL kids will fall.

 

[Mac n Gs]

With how he’s looked on the bigger stage, it’s hard to imagine teams not salivating at the thought of drafting Seider before 20. Big, rangy, and smart RHD with promising physical tools? That’s a GM’s fantasy.

 

[Joey Bones]

I don't think anyone would be dissapointed there.

Here's a question...You are on the clock with #20. Still on the board are. Who's your pick?

Lavoie
Suzuki
Seider
York
Dorofyev

In order of succession; York, Dorofeyev, Suzuki, Seider, Lavoie.

For the record, any of these players can be better in their D+1/D+2 stages. York has the record for most points as a defenseman in USNTDP history and had excellent U18 to finish a strong season. Then Dorofeyev because he's elusive and slippery with the puck, getting around pros in the KHL. He also finished with more than 1.5 PPG in the MHL. He'll play a very promising role with Magnitogorsk next season. Then Suzuki as I think he's the safest of the bunch to become a top-9 playmaker with PP duties. Has the wheels to get around players and the smarts to think ahead of everyone else offensively. I think his point totals will increase next year, either with Barrie or being traded elsewhere. He's also a centerman. Then comes Seider. I like him a lot, but I do think he's a little further away in development than most realize. I think that he can become a speedy two-way defender with more focus on the defensive side of the puck. I do want to see him in a more competitive league, though, and I also want him to simplify his reads on the transition game. He'll be a few years. Then Lavoie because I think he has the bigger bust potential out of all of these players. I think he's going to be one of those players that'll need to have a good playmaker on his side to help bring goals. He gets lazy in the defense and neutral zones. His skating and awareness are there, just not the enthusiasm. With that said, I wouldn't be mad if NYR selected him. Depends on who's there.

 

[Joey Bones]

I think for one, all of us Rangers fans are hyping ourselves up for Kakko and really excited that he has played well at the WC's. Then we start thinking "he's totally the best player in the draft, why WOULDN'T NJ pick him first?"

After being convinced we'd be drafting Kakko and finding ways to make him out to be better than Hughes in our head, we've convinced ourselves that everyone else in the hockey world has the same opinion.

NJ doesn't have the stones to pick Kakko No. 1 (thanks for the line @ZuccsFluffierFluffer)....

In real context, though, Hughes has been this class's No. 1 for almost 3 seasons now. Everyone has hyped him to go No. 1. It has been wildly reported that he has connections with Hall and Shero outside of hockey (Shero specifically knows the Hughes' family). What also sets him apart from Kakko is that Jack is a center and the Devils have virtually no depth at center after Hischier. He also hasn't done anything wrong to be pushed off from being No. 1. He can dominate games and is still 17 years old. I firmly believe the Devils will go with Hughes.

With that said, I don't think Hughes will immediately make an impact in the NHL. I think he'll need a season or two before he starts scoring like a superstar. Kakko, ATM, seems to be a lock to make an NHL roster (whether on NYR or NJD) and be able to contribute. From there we'll be able to see if he can score 50 goals a year. Fingers crossed for that!!

 

[QJL]

Here's a question...You are on the clock with #20. Still on the board are. Who's your pick?

Lavoie
Suzuki
Seider
York
Dorofyev

Still finalizing my rankings but:

7. Seider
18. York
20. Lavoie
22. Dorofeyev
42. Suzuki

1 I’d be thrilled with, 3 I’d be happy with, and 1 I would not.

 

[Fugazy]

I don't think anyone would be dissapointed there.

Here's a question...You are on the clock with #20. Still on the board are. Who's your pick?

Lavoie
Suzuki
Seider
York
Dorofyev

Seider
Dorofyev
York
Lavoie
Suzuki

In that order.

 

[Edge]

Agree there. Here’s a question. With Hughes still in a boys body, is it a safer or conservative thought to let him mature another year before sending him out to the pros. Too many headhunters out there more than willing to destroy a kid before he’s fully ready and can protect himself.

I think he can step right in. What I don't think he'll do is put up all-world numbers necessarily.

I think there's a good possibility that Kakko outscores him for their first two years in the NHL, with Hughes closing the gap and eventually surpassing him in year three or maybe four.

When it came to taking a guess on their scoring archs, I've always felt Thornton and Marleau were good comparisons.

If I remember correctly, Thornton didn't start outscoring Marleau until year three, and I don't think he eclipsed him in career points until the very end of year 4.

While I don't know if Hughes will take the lead in career points at that point, I do think his ascension will take a little longer than Kakko's journey.

 

[True Blue]

NJ doesn't have the stones to pick Kakko No. 1

Nots sure that is the right analogy. But second guessing yourself when you have the first overall pick can get you fired. Shero will be ok if he takes Hughes but Kakko turns out to be a better player. However, that does not hold true if he takes Kakko and Hughes turns out ot be better.

Frankly I believe that Hughes will be better at some point. Kakko's size allows him to be more NHL immediately ready and he may appear to be the better player for a few years. But eventually Hughes will overtake him.

And again it bears noting that neither is generational (a term used with far too much ease around these parts) but both can be franchise cornerstones.

 

[Bluenote13]

Nots sure that is the right analogy. But second guessing yourself when you have the first overall pick can get you fired. Shero will be ok if he takes Hughes but Kakko turns out to be a better player. However, that does not hold true if he takes Kakko and Hughes turns out ot be better.

Frankly I believe that Hughes will be better at some point. Kakko's size allows him to be more NHL immediately ready and he may appear to be the better player for a few years. But eventually Hughes will overtake him.

And again it bears noting that neither is generational (a term used with far too much ease around these parts) but both can be franchise cornerstones.

Pretty much agreed with everything you said here.

In my day, which was not THAT long ago, no one talked about 'generational talent'.

Hall of famers. That's the highest accolade in sports. During your time if you were a perennial all star, that made you a HOF candidate and one of the best during your time as a player. The Modern Rangers, going back 40 years, have had very few of these kind of players, and I'm not talking the ones acquired on the back 9 of their career.

Its fun for us prospect watchers to microscope some of these players, but I'm definitely not into arching out the full careers of 17/18 yr olds. I've seen it all happen. From players who went above and beyond to players who flatlined as a middle liner, to total busts who never went anywhere. And there have been so many different paths, just like comparing two player types, they're almost never exactly alike.

We won the lottery, #2 pick in a draft that has two players who look like legit game breakers. Best seat in the house. Enjoy it. If anything, start overanalyzing the #20 pick prospects or how we can trade up ​

 

[Beacon]

One reason to draft an RHD with the Jets pick (besides that it's our main need) is that we don't know how things play out with our many young centers. It may be worth it to wait until things look a bit clearer after next season and the 2020 draft is particularly forward-heavy.

I'm not sure that teen rookie Chytil is the best he'll ever be. He may have multiple gears that nobody saw in the NHL... yet. As an 18 year old in the AHL, he so often looked like the most talented player on the ice.

I'm likewise not convinced Lias can't some day be Stepan. He can be anything from Malhotra to Stepan, but I'd like a clearer picture before we start throwing the Jets pick and other valuable assets to draft another center.

Zibanejad may yet take another step forward or maybe he just had a career season that he will never repeat. Again, will be clearer in a year.

Howden, maybe Barron could become 2C. Or not.

If it were up to me, I'd trade Kreider (let's say to Nashville for 24OA and some other assets), then draft Seider or Soderstrom at #20 and a high risk, high return forward (one trick pony, midget, lower league guy, etc) with our last first to see if we can pull another Chytil.

Next year, draft a Kravtsov type unless we win the lottery, then maybe someone even better.

 

[RangerBoy]

Wrong thread

 

[Beacon]

Where do I get these exact percentages on the upcoming draft class?

There's nowhere where I said there are exact percentages. I just gave an example: a guy whom a team judges to have an 80% shot of being an NHLer, but only 10% to be top-6F will be ranked higher than a guy the team believes has only a 30% chance of being an NHLer, but a 25% chance of being top-6.

My point is that teams don't rank draftees purely on the ceiling, but also on the floor. There's a presumption here that a guy ranked around 20-25 must have a lower ceiling than a guy ranked 8-12 because if you suggest that 2 picks in the 20-25 range is preferable to #11, the response is, "we don't need more role players, we need first liners" on the assumption that #11 always has a higher ceiling than #21.

That's false. The lower guy could be ranked lower because he has a lower floor and more risk, but he still has a higher ceiling.

 

[Beacon]

I suspect Vancouver may be willing to part with 10 for immediate help at wing.

How about Kreider to Nashville for 24OA this year plus a 2020 2nd rounder next year that becomes a first if they either make the SFC or re-sign Kreider. And we get a 2021 second if we pick up 50% of Kreider's salary.

 

[Edge]

I don't think anyone would be dissapointed there.

Here's a question...You are on the clock with #20. Still on the board are. Who's your pick?

Lavoie
Suzuki
Seider
York
Dorofyev

As of April, I had those players at 25, 18, 26, 13 and 11. There will be some sliding around on my final list though.

 

[Beacon]

I suspect Vancouver may be willing to part with 10 for immediate help at wing.

How about Kreider to Nashville for 24OA this year plus a 2020 2nd rounder next year that becomes a first if they either make the SFC or re-sign Kreider. And we get a 2021 second if we pick up 50% of Kreider's salary.

The most like result of this trade would be a pair of late firsts and a second rounder.

 

[Edge]

How about Kreider to Nashville for 24OA this year plus a 2020 2nd rounder next year that becomes a first if they either make the SFC or re-sign Kreider. And we get a 2021 second if we pick up 50% of Kreider's salary.

The most like result of this trade would be a pair of late firsts and a second rounder.

I feel like that's under-value for a year of Kreider at only $2.6 million (or whatever the exact number is).

 

[Lion Hound]

As of April, I had those players at 25, 18, 26, 13 and 11. There will be some sliding around on my final list though.

Who did you have 13 and 11?

 

[Edge]

Who did you have 13 and 11?

My final list will have some movement, but April has Dorofyev at 11 and York at 13. But I think that's going to change slightly.

 

[Off Sides]

One reason to draft an RHD with the Jets pick (besides that it's our main need) is that we don't know how things play out with our many young centers. It may be worth it to wait until things look a bit clearer after next season and the 2020 draft is particularly forward-heavy.

I'm not sure that teen rookie Chytil is the best he'll ever be. He may have multiple gears that nobody saw in the NHL... yet. As an 18 year old in the AHL, he so often looked like the most talented player on the ice.

I'm likewise not convinced Lias can't some day be Stepan. He can be anything from Malhotra to Stepan, but I'd like a clearer picture before we start throwing the Jets pick and other valuable assets to draft another center.

Zibanejad may yet take another step forward or maybe he just had a career season that he will never repeat. Again, will be clearer in a year.

Howden, maybe Barron could become 2C. Or not.

If it were up to me, I'd trade Kreider (let's say to Nashville for 24OA and some other assets), then draft Seider or Soderstrom at #20 and a high risk, high return forward (one trick pony, midget, lower league guy, etc) with our last first to see if we can pull another Chytil.

Next year, draft a Kravtsov type unless we win the lottery, then maybe someone even better.

How about Kreider to Nashville for 24OA this year plus a 2020 2nd rounder next year that becomes a first if they either make the SFC or re-sign Kreider. And we get a 2021 second if we pick up 50% of Kreider's salary.

The most like result of this trade would be a pair of late firsts and a second rounder.

For me it depends on who is left on the draft board with that #24. How the draft breaks

I mean if the Rangers take Kakko, Seider, and at #24 Dorofeyev, Kaliyev, Tomasino (I'm sure others would have different favorites) are still left, yes I'd also trade Kreider for one of them, especially if the Rangers are also getting some 2020 picks in there too.

Walking away with #2 pick, a big RD prospects who can skate and pass, and another good forward prospect, plus some extra picks in 2020, that to me sure seems like a home run.

If trading Kreider increases the chances that the Rangers own 2020 picks are earlier too, all the more.

Yet if moving Kreider means the Rangers are going to go out an sign Panarin to some ridiculous contract, I'd rather they just kept Kreider and sold him at some future date, even as a rental next deadline. Yet that too involves it's own share of possible pitfalls, like they decide to self rent or extend to his terms, or he ends up injured and not tradeable.

Disclaimer, of course I would want more value back for Kreider, I just am not sure I see it