Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part VI (Lottery 04/09 8PM EST)

[Ghost of jas]

That's assuming a team wants to trade down

They did last year.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

They did last year.

True. But the scenario you are painting is trading up using 2 first round picks. That is a much bigger jump, and you have to find teams willing to give up a pick in the 10-15 range for 2 picks in the late 20s. It's not a given

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Yes.

You're wild. Granted I've watched close to double the game of Hughes then Kakko, there is daylight between the two.

Hughes has franchise center potential.

To each there own!

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

You're wild. Granted I've watched close to double the game of Hughes then Kakko, there is daylight between the two.

Hughes has franchise center potential.

To each there own!

I am not saying Kakko is better than Hughes. But I also don't think Hughes is better than Kakko. I think they are equal, and the difference is in their style.

I prefer a player like Kakko over Hughes personally but as you said: To each their own

 

[Edge]

I feel good being in the top 8. Obviously, I want to enter the lottery with as high of a pick as possible for those purposes, and I’d prefer to pick as early as possible so there are less potential obstacles in our way to get our guy and move on.

For me, that placement of that second pick could be key. If we can get that into the low 20s, or even the high teens, that’s tremendous. At that point you’re in the range of some really tempting talent, and you have enough assets in the second round to potentially make a move like the Miller-trade last season. So if you’re sitting at 19 or 20, you’d be within striking distance to potentially trade up to 15 or 16 with if you so desired.

Suddenly, you’re looking at a scenario in which you very well could be picking 6th and 16th. And that’s without taking into account that you might still pick again in the first, even after moving a pick to bump up your second slot.

 

[Edge]

You're wild. Granted I've watched close to double the game of Hughes then Kakko, there is daylight between the two.

Hughes has franchise center potential.

To each there own!

Re: Hughes vs. Kakko - I find that I come back to projecting the future.

I think they’re closer now, though there is a gap there. However, I also see the conversation right now being similar to comparing a boy to a man.

Hughes right now is very much built like a boy. Kakko is built like a man. And despite this factor, Hughes has, at the very least, stayed equal with Kakko. Personally, I think he’s been a bit better, but I can play Devil’s advocate and call it equal.

So if a player who isn’t physically mature is already at least as good as the guy who is closer to his adult form, what does that say when the physical maturity gap closes?

In other words, what does 2023 look like? Or 2025?

When I start projecting out, and look past the 2019-2020, or 2020-2021 seasons, I find that the potential for the gap widen grows considerably.

I’ve used Thornton and Marleau as an example in the past.

Despite being smaller, Marleau was a bit more physically mature than Thornton when they were drafted. Marleau also jumped out of the gate faster and outscored Thornton their first two seasons. In fact, if I remember correctly, Thornton didn’t pass him in career points until the very end of both players’ respective fourth season in the NHL.

I can see a similar scenario unfolding where Kakko jumps out of the gate faster, but a prime Hughes is seen as the superior player.

 

[Vitto79]

SO what’s the scenarios ? 5-8?

 

[Edge]

SO what’s the scenarios ? 5-8?

Pre-lottery, 5 is best case, 7th is worst case.

Post-lottery, 1-3 is best case, 9th is worst case if we entered the lottery at 6th, and 10th is the worst case if we enter the lottery at 7th.

So pretty much the worst case scenario is stealing a win against the Pens, Edmonton loses, and then the lottery knocks us down to 10th.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Man, Buch screwed us yesterday, huh?

 

[Edge]

Man, Buch screwed us yesterday, huh?

Well he certainly added to the challenge.

It is weird to think that a different bounce yesterday, and that St. Louis game and we’re talking about holding on to 4th, rather than considering the possibility of sliding to 7th.

 

[eco's bones]

Maybe it's unfortunate but Buchnevich just did what Buchnevich should do.

Anyway we're at least 5th when the balls start dropping--though 8 would be worst there's not much chance we'll drop below 7. If we finish 5th it puts us in range of at least one of Byram, Cozens, Turcotte--and there's still Zegras, Podkolzin and Dach too. So we should end up with a really good player.

 

[Bluenote13]

I posted this on 2/8:

"My guess is 10 wins with some shootout losses, 78 points?

I can't see us getting anything lower than eight or nine."

A win tonight puts us at 78

 

[xsniper11x]

Schedule helping today, as Buffalo plays Detroit. Someone has to win, right?

Given the tiebreaker, if we lose in regulation, we’ve got a top 5 lottery spot. No repeats of yesterday!

 

[FoxyClean]

We can only be mad at Buch if we win tonight and Edmonton loses, or if Sabres-Red Wings goes to OT. In which case I'd be furious. The most likely scenario is we lose tonight in regulation and Detroit-Buffalo doesn't go to overtime, in which case getting the point last night changes nothing.

But yeah if BUF-DET goes to OT and then the #4 team gets a top-2 pick, Buchnevich just destroyed our franchise.

 

[Bluenote13]

Lol at the Buchnevich hate.

On the same page I posted that 78 point prediction on 2/8, @Fitzy said "We have to draft a star player, Clearly it's not going to be Buchnevich...."

Sorry fitzy

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Sid is at 98 points, hopefully he goes all out tonight for 100.

 

[Joey Bones]

No way Wallstedt goes 1, maybe 5-10
I’d take Raty over him right now pretty easily

Exactly my point, though. Although I was exaggerating to some extent, there will be a goalie going in the top 10 that year. Incredibly talented and, so far, deserves to go that high.

 

[Blue Blooded]

If the Dallas pick turns into a 1st, it will be 28 or lower since they've made the conference finals.

 

[Bluenote13]

We need to know who's picking at 13-16, there's gotta be a trade partner somewhere in there.

 

[Lays]

We need to know who's picking at 13-16, there's gotta be a trade partner somewhere in there.

I wonder if the Avs would move their 1st (at 16 right now) for Kreider. Would be a fair swap
Gives them
Landeskog-Mack-Rantanen
Kreider-Hughes-X
Next year

 

[wowitsanicecity]

Carolina, St. Louis and Columbus could all pass Winnipeg if the 3 teams win and Winnipeg loses. If Winnipeg doesn’t make it to the conference finals would they still get the lower pick even if Carolina and Columbus are wild card teams? Or for all teams that don’t make the conference finals it just goes by order of points regardless if they were a wild card team or not?

 

[Joey Bones]

"Ok since I know like nothing outside of Hughes kakko and pod....whose the big time shooter in this draft class..the guy with the bomb of a shot who can beat goalies clean from anywhere from the circles in...

I feel like we need more our shooters. "
@Inferno

Kaliyev has by far the best shot.

Might not be what ur looking for but Axel Bergkvist is up there aswell when it comes to shooting ability, overage D-man though

IDK if Kaliyev is "by far" the best shooter. C. Caufield has an awesome shot, too. Underrated shot by York, as well.

 

[NYR Viper]

I posted this on 2/8:

"My guess is 10 wins with some shootout losses, 78 points?

I can't see us getting anything lower than eight or nine."

A win tonight puts us at 78

You better be wrong

 

[NYR Viper]

I wonder if the Avs would move their 1st (at 16 right now) for Kreider. Would be a fair swap
Gives them
Landeskog-Mack-Rantanen
Kreider-Hughes-X
Next year

I think I’d be more inclined to try for next years 1st +

 

[Doctyl]

I’m really hoping Dolan shelled out enough for that 1st OA. We need a Hughes/Kakko