Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part III

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The more I look into him, the more I think Moritz Seider is a “Rangers pick”. He was playing DEL games at 16. Righty defenseman with a good build, very smart, good instincts. Solid all around player. Seems to be in that Hajek mold.

I’m hoping we can be in a position to move up or pick him with the Jets pick because I think he’s a huge sleeper right now. He’s had a few injuries this year so that could cause him to drop a bit.
 
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Last time the Rangers had a Turcotte on their team he was a very good player and they went on that five year run which is the best Rangers run since WWII :)
 
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Outside of the point and who most of the top centers in scoring this year are big guys. Crosby is one of the shortest centers and hes a tank. The best skating centers like McDavid, eichel, and MacKinnon are all 6 foot plus and 200+ pounds. I see very few 5'10" 170-180 pound impact centers in the nhl.

Nope, not in a perspective where you can argue that someone like Dach being 6'4 statistically should benefit from being 6'4 (and growing?). But it can certainly be that you are right that centers shouldn't be 5'10 170 lbs either, but in relation to Dach:

Centers as big or bigger than Dach (6'4 or taller):
upload_2019-3-10_20-51-25.png


Centers smaller than Dach (6'3 or smaller):
upload_2019-3-10_20-53-2.png


And of course those numbers alone aren't conclusive, although its noteworthy that like -- no -- 6'4 or bigger center have made the league in ages, its of course possible to argue that a big part of the population is smaller than 6'4 and what not. And the center/winger selection is NHL's and of course crappy (is Kevin Hayes listed as a winger at them?).

But it was interesting, I was looking through Button's older affiliated prospect ranking. And of course he is a hack and what not -- his rankings can be questioned. But since its still reflective of some kind of rough consensus its still interesting to note that on almost all instances where the rankings are obviously clearly wrong, its bigger forwards ranked above smaller forwards. Its guys like Brayden Point, Barzal and Debrincat listed very late a very short period of time before destorying the NHL, and every year its a whole bunch of higher touted higher drafted players with size that are ranked above them, mostly.

Everyone are entitled to their opinion. But if you compare Dach's functional skating at 6'4 with guys like Point, Barzal and Debrincat and the likes -- there is a significant difference between them. Believe me, its going to show when Dach hits the ice in the NHL. Someone like say Turcotte would show blazing speed, for someone like Dach its -- at least initially -- going to be hard to keep up (just look at how Nolan Patrick often disappears from games, NP is smaller than Dach and a pretty great skater for someone his size).

With that said, there are many ways to succeed in this league, there are no blue-print that fits everyone. Think Dach reminds me a lot of Jeff Carter, that is someone that has had a lot of success in LA, although I think he would have had a tougher time in the game of today, it has changed quit rapidly the last years. Anyway, if a Anders Lee type can score 40, who am I to say that Kirby Dach can't do well? And is there some kind of rule that makes it impossible for Dach to do in the NHL what Mark Schleife has done? Nope. But I definitely think that its relevant to consider skating as a factor for Dach.
 
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I really like Fagemo and think he is worth a late first round pick. @Blue Blooded already cited more interesting stats than I would have put together, but basically everyone that's played as well as he has in the SHL at 18 has turned into at least a decent NHL player with several of them turning into stars.

I also think Antti Saarela, who is one of the youngest players in the draft and is putting up similar numbers to Aho in Liiga, and Firstov, who is putting up very solid numbers in the USHL as a late birthday 17 year old adjusting to a new league and country, are pretty interesting. I like Brink (who is also a late birthday) too for reasons that have already been mentioned, but it seems like there is a good chance he could be gone by the Rangers 2nd pick.

Anecdotally, it seems to me like a disproportionate number of the guys picked after 20th who turn into NHL stars - Aho, Pastrnak, Kuznetsov, and Josi, for example - are late birthdays. Some of the best recent picks in that area are late birthdays too, like Chytil, Thomas, or Vesalainen. In general, it makes sense to me that the youngest guys will have more upside / potential for dramatic development.

Along those lines, I think other late birthdays like Harley, Tomasino, Robertson, Beaucage, Johnson, and Kolyachonok are all interesting and worth thinking about too.
 
I started looking at Dach, I have no clue where the "He can't skate, he's slow" comes from.

He should be the 3rd forward.. He seems like a complete player. And arguably the 3rd pick

For me, I just don't see him skating hard so it's easy to see him and not think "he's fast" which can morph into "slow." His speed seems average I guess. But when he is rated so high, I think the preconception is you are looking for something spectacular so when you don't see it, your perception can go negative. When he receives a pass, his release is slow. Maybe I'm only see plays where he's not getting crisp passes. But he is taking about 0.25 - 0.5 seconds to set his shot which is enough time for the goaltender to get across or square up to him. On the back check, he is usually coasting so I haven't seen a play where he flies back to break up the play - those usually make you take note of a player's speed. As a center, he's frequently (50+% from what I was seeing) the last forward back which seems wrong. A lot of his highlights feel very pedestrian, like he benefited from his linemates more than being the catalyst of the play. His positioning and passing seem solid but decision making seems like it will suffer at NHL speeds. When he's in his end, I like his defensive awareness and position. I do agree with you that he seems like a 3rd line forward. He'll make an NHL player, but not sure you want a 3rd liner as a top 5 pick.

I'd love to be convinced otherwise. Really curious to see some footage of Dach that makes me go "oh, I see why people are hype for him" I only have a limited amount of exposure through YouTube armchair scouting.

Upside feels like a Jordan Staal, Bozak, or Kesler type of player. Lower end is like Brian Boyle or Marcus Kruger.
 
The Rangers like European and college bound kids--that's most likely what they'll aim for in the top 2 rounds anyway. Saying that I don't remember them ever drafting a German so it would surprise me a little if they took Seider. Of course everything depends on who's left on the board. I certainly don't see Seider with our earlier pick--but the Winnipeg maybe. If we're picking 8 or 9 and Zegras or Boldy or Turcotte is still around that's probably the guy they take and it probably means that guys like Bowen and Dach and Cozens are already off the board.

I wouldn't mind us taking Beecher with the Dallas or Tampa pick in the 2nd round or if he falls into the 3rd. Big guy, physical--great skater--college bound from the USNTDP and he's from my hometown.
 
Ain't going to lie. As turdy as some of you can be, all of you definitely know your shit about the draft this year. And that's no patronizing shit neither. This draft thread has ALWAYS been one of the best sources of information of any thread on this entire site. I go to this place religiously and it's not because I have some urge to beef.

You guys are on the money because you collectively paint one of the more clearer pictures among team draft threads. Unless you copy them but I doubt it because you've been getting it right since way earlier into this season. How it unfolds is up in the air but I'm thinking you guys are hitting on at least 12-15 of the top 20, which is better than my rate but I, like others, like to be aggressive if I feel strongly about a kid.

Anyway I'm doing a write up on the Minny Tournament because there were kids (like 10) that will get drafted this year or next. Dylan Samberg (among others) used his 2017 state run to boost his draft stock (to me and several others but not CSB). It'll be on the blog today or tomorrow. I'm either going to look real stupid showing these kids off or there are many others who saw what I saw.
 
I didn't think I'd ever be as mad as I was in Chicago, and then I was madder in Dallas. Both overreactions, admittedly. But even still, moves in those respective drafts were made that can be questioned. As a Ranger fan and not a draft guy, I still lack faith in them though. But I hope this year is the same as it was when I trusted them between 2000-2014. 2015 is when I started to worry.

Only way they can botch this is if they go no-name goalie early and/or trade up at too high a price. Now if they take Knight at 27 or whatever I won't be pissed at all. I just want them to focus on speed and skill.

There is a youtube video of Jim Benning giving a mini pep talk to his draft table in 2017 and all he said was "Speed and skill, boys" (except Gadjovich lol). I want to see that in every round this year.
 
We should draft Ilya Konovalov if he’s available after the first 3 rounds, 20 year Old goalie who has excellent numbers all through his youth career and who just posted a .930 in his first season as a KHL starter. To me he’s the top goalie available in this draft and he’ll be ahead of Knight in my rankings.

He’ll be top 93 in my rankings but i’m just against picking goalies early, results on that seems poor as a whole.
 
Alex Turcotte is having an insane season in USHL, missed first half of the season but he’s at 2 P/GP with only 27% on the PP
Jack Hughes is still waiting for regression to hit, SH% only 9.5 still and someone with his skill is definitely a 15+% shooter in USHL

Turcotte is challenging Byram for #3 on my ranking
 
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