Salary Cap: Dr Dubas Cap Thread: He wants the Nurse

[WheresRamziAbid]

Yeah, adding teams as "should have been top 8" is subjective.

But my point is every single one winner could be seen coming. There's been no surprise or underdog winners for a long time.

And as such, I disagree there are plenty of teams who should be listed as contenders. There's a short list of contenders - probably about 6 most years - and a bunch of pretenders there to make up the numbers. The pretenders can have wonderful runs but actually win it? Nah.

As things stand, Washington are not in the contender list.

I think the margins of what were talking about is small enough that a bit of revisionist history creeping in effects our opinions here. So i looked for whatever data i could find.

Its not perfect but i found the preaeason futures odds for the cup finalists going back to 2014. Which, again, while not perfect analysis does give a good snap shot of public perception going into the season and since this discussion started with preseason perception of this years Capitals i think is fair.

There have been 26 teams that have made the cup finals:

12 from the top 4
7 from 5-8 (16 total top 6)
7 from 9+

So in total approx 62% of finalist do come from that “favorites” top 6 that you mention but that still leaves 38% of finalist outside that group with almost 25% coming outside the top 10.

Again id like to reiterate preseason odds arent exactly a science but i think it highlights my argument that there are plenty of teams with a legitimate chance to contend

 

[Andy99]

Feels like if we don't get make a trade today to move into the top 10 then we won't at all.

I think once draft day hits teams are going to want to keep their picks and you might see some minor trading down but nothing major.

Why? I still think Dubas may have a deal pending to move up depending on a particular player being available…still could happen during the draft

 

[Ugene Magic]

Not to be mister negative, but don't think any of the above happens. Would not at all be surprised if they:

a) move down the draft ("We tried to move up but there weren't any deal that made sense, so we moved down and added another pick")
b) Re-sign Mantha ("Anthony had a great season with us last year and really fit well into our core group (plus we need to reach the cap floor but we can't say that out loud)")

I see them standing pat on #22.

I still think the move to do is move up from #39. I'm targeting St. Louis's #29. They have 4 1sts now. I think the Pens can do like last year trading up from #31 except from #39 using #54.

They did #31 and #59 for #24 last year.

 

[Pancakes]

Why? I still think Dubas may have a deal pending to move up depending on a particular player being available…still could happen during the draft

Because once it gets to draft day and the draft starts falling in a certain way teams start thinking a player they like will be available when they pick and then it gets harder to make moves.

Recent flurry of trades aside NHL gms are conservative by nature and it's easier to keep a pick and make a selection than it is to do something bolder.

 

[TimD]

Not sure we realistically have a spot for Mantha.

I think they would be willing to bring Mantha back on another low risk 1 year deal. But based on the comments Dubas made at his end of season presser, think Mantha made it pretty clear to them he was going to go to market because he thinks he’s gonna get term and money… and some team is going to be stupid enough to give it him based on the free agent group

 

[Jag68Sid87]

With Tuch and McMann now off the market, isn't Mantha the No. 1 UFA winger? I suppose some may argue Marchment.

I'd argue Ovechkin but semantics.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’d be flat out irritated if they moved Rakell for Johnson. Johnson is a pure gamble you send out a 2nd for, not trading one of your top trade chips.

You could get far better value for Rakell than a guy like Johnson.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

2. If you assume the top 2 seeds in each division are the 4 best and evenly matched, they will reach the finals 2.5 times on average in 10 years. Once in 10 years in that small a sample is well within reason. This is also a very convenient cutoff as if you look 11 years instead of 10 the metro 2 seed has both made the finals and won the cup twice.

This is why you're wrong. The top 2 in each division are not the 4 best teams in each conference, lol.

Pens were 7th in the East and 11th overall last year and ANA was about the same in the conference and 15th in the league.

 

[Pancakes]

This is why you're wrong. The top 2 in each division are not the 4 best teams in each conference, lol.

Pens were 7th in the East and 11th overall last year and ANA was about the same in the conference and 15th in the league.

Pens did start resting guys early as they'd locked up their spot with like three games remaining or whatever it was. Not sure how soon Boston/Ottawa did the same.

Point being the Pens might have finished ahead of one or both had they needed those points and played their normal roster in those games

 

[TojoP]

Not to be mister negative, but don't think any of the above happens. Would not at all be surprised if they:

a) move down the draft ("We tried to move up but there weren't any deal that made sense, so we moved down and added another pick")
b) Re-sign Mantha ("Anthony had a great season with us last year and really fit well into our core group (plus we need to reach the cap floor but we can't say that out loud)")

I think teading Rust but then backfilling him with Mantha would be such a great troll move by Dubas. Too many conflicting emotions for HFBoards to handle.

But it would be a smart way to get an asset and not hurt next year's team. Not as exciting as Bourque though.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the only chance they re-sign Mantha is if he goes to UFA and is only getting crap offers, so he says "I'll come back to Pittsburgh on a high AAV, short term deal".

But with how bad UFA is, I have an incredibly tough time seeing how Mantha isn't getting something like 4 years at $6 million a year at minimum.

 

[Pancakes]

I think the only chance they re-sign Mantha is if he goes to UFA and is only getting crap offers, so he says "I'll come back to Pittsburgh on a high AAV, short term deal".

But with how bad UFA is, I have an incredibly tough time seeing how Mantha isn't getting something like 4 years at $6 million a year at minimum.

I don't think the Pens would want him unless it's literally a one or two year deal and I just can't imagine someone won't give him 3-4 in FA.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

This is why you're wrong. The top 2 in each division are not the 4 best teams in each conference, lol.

Pens were 7th in the East and 11th overall last year and ANA was about the same in the conference and 15th in the league.

Your missing the point.

In any given season the #2 seed in any particular division could realistically be anywhere from the 3rd to the 14th best team.

But the actual point is that the concept of “contenders for the 2nd best team in division ______” are still contenders, certainly not favorites but still contenders. Even in weak divisions.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Disagree to be honest. Roster still has significant upside if some of our younger guys can make a push and Muse has the team bought in and did a good job with development.

How does this roster have significant upside? Basically everyone had career or resurgence years last season. No chance everyone's gonna do that again next season. and even if they do, what is that gonna get them? They'll be lucky to fight for a wild card spot.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Uh this is a weird one. Why is Florida spending what little cap space it has left on Hathaway making $2.4 million?



Explains it, only $1.2 million so that makes it better.

 

[Peat]

Tbh, in isolation, a 4 x 6m deal for Mantha is absolutely fine and dandy and I'd sign it tomorrow given what we're about to see in free agency. Right now UFA feels like an episode of Fear Factor, everybody knows they're about to be electrocuted but one guy gets to win a bunch of money so they're all going to lick the wire and hope.

However, this team needs to leave some roster spots open for younger wingers, so no bueno.

I can see the Pens giving too much money to a dman very easily though. In an ideal world, you persuade Oleksiak or someone to do a one or two year deal. But, uh, he's probably getting more than that.

 

[SomeDude]

I assume Zito watched Hathaway get into the Pens heads and destroy us in round 1 and then missed round 2 when Carolina completely ignored him like the useless plug he is.

 

[deakka]

Uh this is a weird one. Why is Florida spending what little cap space it has left on Hathaway making $2.4 million?



Explains it, only $1.2 million so that makes it better.

How on earth they get positive value for Hathaway, lol. We need to start sending players out!

 

[Ulf5]

I’d be flat out irritated if they moved Rakell for Johnson. Johnson is a pure gamble you send out a 2nd for, not trading one of your top trade chips.

You could get far better value for Rakell than a guy like Johnson.

Rakell's best season .44-.45-.89
KJ's best season. .34-.49-.84
And KJ 10 years younger still only 23.
Rakell probably has a bit more value after KJ's down year but nothing dramatic.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

Uh this is a weird one. Why is Florida spending what little cap space it has left on Hathaway making $2.4 million?



Explains it, only $1.2 million so that makes it better.

Obviously, Hathaway is the missing piece.

Every team needs that useless, brings nothing piece of crap plug.

Ryan Reaves will be free to sign on July 1!

 

[Empoleon8771]

Rakell's best season .44-.45-.89
KJ's best season. .34-.49-.84
And KJ 10 years younger still only 23.
Rakell probably has a bit more value after KJ's down year but nothing dramatic.

That one season has been an extreme outlier in Johnson's career.

 

[SEALBound]

I have no idea what to think about Kent Johnson. Teams are obviously going to be wondering if they are getting the 25 or 26 version of him, and honestly, who knows? I do feel like Columbus will want the premium for him citing his 25 numbers but teams will only want to bite if he's a legit deal. If you could trade Rakell for a late 1st and use a 2nd on Johnson, I'd probably take the risk. No different than my willingness to take the risk with Zary.

I feel like they are all in that Dach, Newhook, level - a decent middle 6 player to round out a good top 9.

 

[Peat]

Tbh, I'm a little surprised that 50% off Hathaway got so little back. He's playoff size ZAR with maximum sandpaper. Feel like a bunch of teams want that. Hell, I'd have done that, if you're selling at the playoffs you easily get more for him.

I know some will say who wants ZAR but look around the NHL and see how many GMs love their low event fourth line forwards.

 

[Deport Ogie]

I know it's their thing going back to 96 or whatever but how many rats do you need in one organization? Florida takes the ice and it looks all NIMH up in here.

 

[Borgir]

Tbh, I'm a little surprised that 50% off Hathaway got so little back. He's playoff size ZAR with maximum sandpaper. Feel like a bunch of teams want that. Hell, I'd have done that, if you're selling at the playoffs you easily get more for him.

I know some will say who wants ZAR but look around the NHL and see how many GMs love their low event fourth line forwards.

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