Buddy Bizarre
Registered User
- Jul 9, 2021
- 9,200
- 8,294
Nice breakdown
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Appreciating vs. Depreciating Assets
Thoughts on the 2026 draft and the Byram & Nemec trades
JACK HAN
JUN 25
READ IN APP
There will not be much 2026 NHL Draft coverage in this newsletter. However I do want to share two questions that inform what the 32 teams will be trying to accomplish this week and beyond.
1. What’s an appreciating asset?
2. What’s a depreciating asset?
A few real life examples.
Real estate tends to be appreciating assets, at least in geographic areas where people want to live and do business.
The stock market, as a whole, appreciates over time. Individual stocks can be hit or miss.
Cars are depreciating assets, unless you buy the right ones, take care of them fastidiously and don’t drive them very much.
What about in the NHL?
The most visible type of appreciating asset is the franchise player, the one you draft with a high pick and build the rest of your team around; the McDavids, MacKinnons, and Celebrinis of the world. As long as they’re in their prime, EDM/COL/SJS are unlikely to trade these former first overall picks for a future 1OA pick, or even multiple ones. Once in a while, such transformational players fall down the draft order. The Montreal Canadiens are thrilled to have nabbed Lane Hutson in the second round in 2022.
What elite NHLers won't tell you
JACK HAN
·
APR 8
Read full story
What about depreciating assets? A mediocre player taken too early is one. The Ottawa Senators would love to trade Tyler Boucher (10th overall, 2021) for an early pick in this year’s draft, even if Boucher may well go on to enjoy a respectable career. Smart teams avoid drafting role players (shutdown Ds & checking-line forwards) early, because there’s no need to use a 1st round pick and wait several years when they can use less trade capital to immediately acquire a fully-formed NHLer.
Looking across the league, there appears to be a type of player that can be both an appreciating and a depreciating asset, depending on timing and environment: the offensive, point-producing defenseman.
The Carolina Hurricanes drafted high-scoring prep schooler Scott Morrow 40th overall in 2021, then packaged the right-handed D prospect to land K’Andre Miller from New York last summer.
On June 23rd, the New Jersey Devils traded Simon Nemec (2nd overall pick, 2022) for a 2026 second-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick and a 2028 first-round pick.
Later the same day, the Buffalo Sabres sent Bowen Byram (4OA 2019) to the Chicago Blackhawks for this year’s fourth overall pick and a second rounder. BUF had acquired Byram from Colorado two years ago for Casey Mittelstadt.
My takeaways from these seemingly unrelated deals:
1. At the draft table, it still pays to bet on talented, productive Ds, even if these players ultimately won’t play for your team
a. Morrow, a defenseman that CAR didn’t need, showed enough through college and the AHL to eventually help the team get the D that it did need (Miller)
2. For a team looking to go from pretender to contender, having too many puck-centric Ds who derive confidence from their powerplay usage can be problematic
a. When I wrote Hockey Tactics 2026 at the start of this year, I predicted that pending RFA Nemec and Luke Hughes, already signed long-term, could not coexist long-term in New Jersey
3. Chicago and Calgary can still get value out of their respective trades and subsequent signings if Byram/Nemec put up tons of points, but recent Stanley Cup champs Carolina and Florida have extended their contention windows by not overcommitting to this player archetype (Burns, Skjei & Orlov -CAR, Montour - FLA)
a. Meanwhile, both championship teams were able to fill their PP1 D minutes with already-depreciated assets, acquired relatively cheaply (Gostisbehere - CAR, Ekman-Larsson & Jones - FLA)
Hockey Tactics Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
********************************
Appreciating vs. Depreciating Assets
Thoughts on the 2026 draft and the Byram & Nemec trades
JACK HAN
JUN 25
READ IN APP
There will not be much 2026 NHL Draft coverage in this newsletter. However I do want to share two questions that inform what the 32 teams will be trying to accomplish this week and beyond.
1. What’s an appreciating asset?
2. What’s a depreciating asset?
A few real life examples.
Real estate tends to be appreciating assets, at least in geographic areas where people want to live and do business.
The stock market, as a whole, appreciates over time. Individual stocks can be hit or miss.
Cars are depreciating assets, unless you buy the right ones, take care of them fastidiously and don’t drive them very much.
What about in the NHL?
The most visible type of appreciating asset is the franchise player, the one you draft with a high pick and build the rest of your team around; the McDavids, MacKinnons, and Celebrinis of the world. As long as they’re in their prime, EDM/COL/SJS are unlikely to trade these former first overall picks for a future 1OA pick, or even multiple ones. Once in a while, such transformational players fall down the draft order. The Montreal Canadiens are thrilled to have nabbed Lane Hutson in the second round in 2022.
What elite NHLers won't tell you
JACK HAN
·
APR 8
Read full story
What about depreciating assets? A mediocre player taken too early is one. The Ottawa Senators would love to trade Tyler Boucher (10th overall, 2021) for an early pick in this year’s draft, even if Boucher may well go on to enjoy a respectable career. Smart teams avoid drafting role players (shutdown Ds & checking-line forwards) early, because there’s no need to use a 1st round pick and wait several years when they can use less trade capital to immediately acquire a fully-formed NHLer.
Looking across the league, there appears to be a type of player that can be both an appreciating and a depreciating asset, depending on timing and environment: the offensive, point-producing defenseman.
The Carolina Hurricanes drafted high-scoring prep schooler Scott Morrow 40th overall in 2021, then packaged the right-handed D prospect to land K’Andre Miller from New York last summer.
On June 23rd, the New Jersey Devils traded Simon Nemec (2nd overall pick, 2022) for a 2026 second-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick and a 2028 first-round pick.
Later the same day, the Buffalo Sabres sent Bowen Byram (4OA 2019) to the Chicago Blackhawks for this year’s fourth overall pick and a second rounder. BUF had acquired Byram from Colorado two years ago for Casey Mittelstadt.
My takeaways from these seemingly unrelated deals:
1. At the draft table, it still pays to bet on talented, productive Ds, even if these players ultimately won’t play for your team
a. Morrow, a defenseman that CAR didn’t need, showed enough through college and the AHL to eventually help the team get the D that it did need (Miller)
2. For a team looking to go from pretender to contender, having too many puck-centric Ds who derive confidence from their powerplay usage can be problematic
a. When I wrote Hockey Tactics 2026 at the start of this year, I predicted that pending RFA Nemec and Luke Hughes, already signed long-term, could not coexist long-term in New Jersey
3. Chicago and Calgary can still get value out of their respective trades and subsequent signings if Byram/Nemec put up tons of points, but recent Stanley Cup champs Carolina and Florida have extended their contention windows by not overcommitting to this player archetype (Burns, Skjei & Orlov -CAR, Montour - FLA)
a. Meanwhile, both championship teams were able to fill their PP1 D minutes with already-depreciated assets, acquired relatively cheaply (Gostisbehere - CAR, Ekman-Larsson & Jones - FLA)
Hockey Tactics Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
