I think we really need to question the success of the rebuild and the ability of Dorion to evaluate his own team wrt constructing a team that can win in today's NHL and to determine their readiness to compete. How long did we need a quality RD? The top heavy types of forwards that are not suited for 3rd line defense 1st kind of roles. We see the star potential of a few of the high picks acquired through the draft and the complete tear down. We also see a team that is still not ready to compete while we spend high first round picks on a particular type of player, and to bring in players to help win now when the team around them is years away from being close to being able to compete in the playoffs.
Assessing the rebuild is easy and tough.
It's easy in that we can look at objective numbers that tell us that up to this point, our rebuild has not been successful. The goal of a rebuild should be to acquire enough assets while not competing to build a core that can compete. We see that every Stanley Cup winner the expansion era has had a 52+ GF% rating at all strengths, so this is probably a good benchmark to objectively measure competitiveness. The average Stanley Cup winner in the RTSS era has had about 27-28 WAR, so that is probably a good benchmark. WAR out-predicts standing points in terms of predicting playoff winners. The team with the higher WAR wins about 60% of the time in the playoffs (per series). We are not close to these numbers. For example, last year we had 15.5 WAR. If we need 28 WAR to compete, and Connor McDavid is worth 5 WAR, we can kinda say we are two Connor McDavid's and some change away from competing. How are we going to aggregate two Connor McDavid's? We are at the cap. We have seemingly have no high level prospects. We have no extra picks. We are not a destination for free agents. We are in ownership transition. We can say our guys will get better, but by WAR metrics, they are in their primes.
The hard part is answering why we are not good enough, and the more important question is what can be done about it?