Does anyone still think Marner is better than Matthews?

[Menzinger]

Riddle me this... how many star players reach UFA status at 27 years old in the cap era?

So far we have discussed:

Stamkos - re-signed with current team
Parise - moved
Suter - moved
Tavares - moved

3 of 4 so far.

It's quite possible that teams would lock up their stars to 7-8 year deals so that they are locked up in their primes.

That won't happen here unless there is another contract. Matthews will be 26 and UFA per the current deal.

But let's explore the data... which other stars have hit UFA status in the year in which they turn 27? Where did they end up?

And which players were 27 and about to hit the market but opted instead to resign with the team and forego the free market?

The number of star rfas who signed 8 year deals post elc is relatively small - far more have signed 5-6 year deals. Of those guys the vast majority have opted to still resign with their home drafted teams rather than go ufa in their 20s - hence there have only been 3 guys of that caliber to so ( and 2/3 of those only examples happened almost a decade ago)

Your point here is bunk - as is the notion that you are remotely qualified to comment on what Matthews' intentions will be in 5 years time.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The price of UFA’s going up in bidding wars is well documented.

It’s a reasonable “speculation” based on evidence that the UFA market is a very expensive mechanism to participate in.




Highest paid player on the team with a no movement clause in the year before UFA status?

All secured while being a restricted free agent?

I shudder at the thought of what Dubas would pay the player on an open market.

Many here do too.

are you surprised the best player on the team is also the highest paid player?

 

[Menzinger]

This thread is veering off topic. Its about Marner and Matthews.

Any wider discussions about Dubas or management decisions should take place in other more appropriate threads.

 

[AustonMarner]

Hoglund must have thought he was the strong anchor for the line...

25 Worst Maple Leafs of the last 15 years: Part One #25-15

Here's a snippet;

"While Ponikarovsky and Antropov were bad, Hoglund and Renberg were awful. Maybe the Leafs thought they were hitting one out of the park by trying to reunite the Swedish chemistry between these two and Sundin, but it was a failure. Hoglund did score 29 goals in his first year in T.O., but his production slid every year after that, and yet he continued to get first line minutes with Sundin. Renberg, whose best days as the weak link of the “Legion of Doom” in Philly were behind him, was totally useless in his three years as a Leaf, never once scoring more than 14 goals, despite playing a large portion of that with Sundin. These two leeched off of Mats for four and three years respectively, wasting #13’s talents in the process, at a time when the team had unlimited resources to spend to create a real top line."

Poor poor Mats.. and then the way the shit ignorant Leafs Fans were actually mad at Sundin for not wanting to be traded.. TO THE THE f***UN' SC'HABS NO LESS! no respect for a man who took home-town discounts to stay in Toronto for basically his whole career..
I'll never understand the average Leafs fan.

 

[Stephen]

Human observation of hockey is affected by massive biases, especially when you have emotional investment in the team.

I have a plot twist for you. When you are in hardcore analytical mode reviewing data in a rigorous scientific method, you're still a human. With built in biases. Sometimes biases towards your own methodology and tools, observations and systems of rationalization. And when you engage in a debate on a message board between A vs B, you are expressing a bias.

 

[Stephen]

We should list them. Stars in their mid 20’s.

It's too easy, bro.

Sidney Crosby. Evgeni Malkin. Kris Letang. Steven Stamkos. Phil Kessel. Tyler Seguin. Corey Perry. Jason Spezza. Henrik Lundqvist. Ryan Miller. Jonathan Toews. Patrick Kane. Rick Nash. Patrice Bergeron. Brad Marchand. Anze Kopitar. Drew Doughty. Jonathan Quick. And more!

 

[ZEBROA]

To sum this thread up. No most dont think Marner is the better player. And blabla Matthews contract ... the end!

 

[Pookie]

It's too easy, bro.

Sidney Crosby. Evgeni Malkin. Kris Letang. Steven Stamkos. Phil Kessel. Tyler Seguin. Corey Perry. Jason Spezza. Henrik Lundqvist. Ryan Miller. Jonathan Toews. Patrick Kane. Rick Nash. Patrice Bergeron. Brad Marchand. Anze Kopitar. Drew Doughty. Jonathan Quick. And more!

Yep. I would totally agree with you on that.

As we could list all of the stars that changed teams by becoming UFA.

I started doing that with players like Hossa, Hasek, Joseph, Belfour, Niedermayer, Campbell, Hull, Character, Gonchar, Rafalski, Graves, Richards, St Louis, Gaborik, Kovalchuk, Holik, Suter, Parise, Weber (offer sheer), Aho (offer sheet), O’Reilly (offer sheer).... I mean the list includes 140+ names each year. And some of them are really good players.

Players leave teams all the time. Players stay with teams all the time.

As I said, for every Stamkos there is a Tavares.

 

[Gabriel426]

Yep. I would totally agree with you on that.

As we could list all of the stars that changed teams by becoming UFA.

I started doing that with players like Hossa, Hasek, Joseph, Belfour, Niedermayer, Campbell, Hull, Character, Gonchar, Rafalski, Graves, Richards, St Louis, Gaborik, Kovalchuk, Holik, Suter, Parise, Weber (offer sheer), Aho (offer sheet), O’Reilly (offer sheer).... I mean the list includes 140+ names each year. And some of them are really good players.

Players leave teams all the time. Players stay with teams all the time.

As I said, for every Stamkos there is a Tavares.

Dude, you are reaching.
That’s like saying for every McDavid there is a Daige.

 

[Gabriel426]

An 8 year deal would signal to me that we have him through his peak performance years.

I could care less if he wanted to walk as his skills declined.

An 8 year deal on the next go around that takes a player to his mid 30’s is never ideal.

Given that age and cap hit will be the pivot points in a team decision, it’s fair to ask whether max cash will be money well spent.

That’s something that a GM will have to plan for. Particularly if they are getting any signals that the player may be open to hitting the market.

It cannot be sign him at all costs.... at least that can’t be a prudent strategy.

First you didn’t answer my question.
Second, ELC, 5yrs deal and 8 years deal at least to me is better than ELC, 8yrs deal and 8yrs deal. As like you said, paying guys to be in mid 30s is not ideal.
If Matthews resigns with the Leafs for 8yrs after the current deal, he will be 34-35. Barring injuries, I would say Matthews will be someone like Ovie. Ovie won another Rocket this year and he is 34.
Not sure about you but if the player is challenging for the Rocket, unless he is getting paid 30% more than the next highest paid player in the league, I really won’t complain about that contract.

Anyhow, it is way too early to discuss about Matthews resigning... as it is 4 years away. I expect this discussions in his last year with the team and not resigning while continue to say I want to make my decision after the season.....

 

[7even]

"Bias" is the lazy man's counter argument.

True facts. "You're biased." Yes. So are you. So is he. So is everyone. What is there left to talk about?

 

[Dekes For Days]

When you are in hardcore analytical mode reviewing data in a rigorous scientific method, you're still a human. With built in biases.

I never said that I didn't have any biases, though there is way way way more inherent bias in human observation than there is for statistical evaluation.

 

[al secord]

True facts. "You're biased." Yes. So are you. So is he. So is everyone. What is there left to talk about?

Your bias runs deep in this quote. You just ruined a perfectly good thread.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Yep. I would totally agree with you on that.

As we could list all of the stars that changed teams by becoming UFA.

I started doing that with players like Hossa, Hasek, Joseph, Belfour, Niedermayer, Campbell, Hull, Character, Gonchar, Rafalski, Graves, Richards, St Louis, Gaborik, Kovalchuk, Holik, Suter, Parise, Weber (offer sheer), Aho (offer sheet), O’Reilly (offer sheer).... I mean the list includes 140+ names each year. And some of them are really good players.

Players leave teams all the time. Players stay with teams all the time.

As I said, for every Stamkos there is a Tavares.

He gives you a list of players who signed in the cap era, and you respond with a list of guys who were traded, signed before the cap, and were offer sheeted.

Wow, this is bad even for you.

 

[Stephen]

I never said that I didn't have any biases, though there is way way way more inherent bias in human observation than there is for statistical evaluation.

Statistical evaluation is being done by those same humans and susceptible to the exact same set of biases. For example, two people on a message board disagree with a piece of data. Smooth it over by playing the same size card.

 

[Stephen]

Yep. I would totally agree with you on that.

As we could list all of the stars that changed teams by becoming UFA.

I started doing that with players like Hossa, Hasek, Joseph, Belfour, Niedermayer, Campbell, Hull, Character, Gonchar, Rafalski, Graves, Richards, St Louis, Gaborik, Kovalchuk, Holik, Suter, Parise, Weber (offer sheer), Aho (offer sheet), O’Reilly (offer sheer).... I mean the list includes 140+ names each year. And some of them are really good players.

Players leave teams all the time. Players stay with teams all the time.

As I said, for every Stamkos there is a Tavares.

Well, I’m going to stop you there because the parameter you set for me was mid 20 something star players re-signing with their organization as they hit UFA status. So that should preclude all the pre-cap examples you listed as well as the late career veterans looking for a pay day. Because in the long run, even Gordie Howe played for a second franchise. But what do I care who Matthews plays for at 52?

 

[Stephen]

Dude, you are reaching.
That’s like saying for every McDavid there is a Daige.

I mean, hey, even Michael Jordan left the Bulls. Even after 6 titles! What chance do we even have here?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Statistical evaluation is being done by those same humans and susceptible to the exact same set of biases.

That's not true. There are many inherent biases and inaccuracies that exist in human observation, especially in a complex and fast-paced sport like this, and especially as a fan with emotional investment and a casual viewing experience, that does not exist in the accumulation of statistical data. Especially when viewings are sporadic and heavily skewed towards one team, making it even more impossible to get an accurate baseline for comparisons.

One can be biased in their application of statistics to come to a conclusion, just as one can be biased in the application of their observations to come to conclusions, but the issues with human observation go way beyond that; the actual observation of most things is faulty, not just the application/use of it.

Also, for the purposes of discussion, observational arguments are essentially useless. It's just debating contrasting and incorrect perceptions, with no way to make an actual case. Methods of statistical accumulation/evaluation can at least be studied and debated and improved, to help minimize bias.

 

[Pookie]

First you didn’t answer my question.
Second, ELC, 5yrs deal and 8 years deal at least to me is better than ELC, 8yrs deal and 8yrs deal. As like you said, paying guys to be in mid 30s is not ideal.
If Matthews resigns with the Leafs for 8yrs after the current deal, he will be 34-35. Barring injuries, I would say Matthews will be someone like Ovie. Ovie won another Rocket this year and he is 34.
Not sure about you but if the player is challenging for the Rocket, unless he is getting paid 30% more than the next highest paid player in the league, I really won’t complain about that contract.

Anyhow, it is way too early to discuss about Matthews resigning... as it is 4 years away. I expect this discussions in his last year with the team and not resigning while continue to say I want to make my decision after the season.....

Fun fact.

Matthews has a full no movement clause in his final year of his contract here.

Team cannot trade him without his permission.

I cannot think of better leverage for the player in negotiation.

And given that... while the contract expires in 4... if you don’t want to risk him walking for nothing.... you’ve got to kick the tires on a new contract long before that.

 

[Pookie]

True facts. "You're biased." Yes. So are you. So is he. So is everyone. What is there left to talk about?

Exactly.

When someone says their debate opponent is biased, it’s an attempt to discount the opinion without a true retort.

I hold the view that Toronto is a nice place but not the nicest place for everyone. Eg. We’ve just witnessed Kwahi Leonard win everything here and then leave.

I absolutely lean to the view that an American superstar might want to be an American superstar in an American city.

Everyone jumping on that idea (and some on me) cannot fathom that anyone would reject what they themselves love.

Bias goes all around. Claiming it as a counter point is just lazy.

 

[Pookie]

He gives you a list of players who signed in the cap era, and you respond with a list of guys who were traded, signed before the cap, and were offer sheeted.

Wow, this is bad even for you.

Uh dude... all of those players moved teams in the cap era.

As do +140 UFAs every year.

 

[Mugzy97]

Define streaky. I've seen this comment before and it appears to be pretty arbitrary with nothing to back it up.

Streaky [stree-kee]
varying or uneven in quality

 

[ShaneFalco]

Ahhhh Leaf Nation - always have to pit 2 players against eachother

 

[nsleaf]

 

[Dekes For Days]

When someone says their debate opponent is biased, it’s an attempt to discount the opinion without a true retort.

I am not discounting your opinion. Your observations being biased is just a reality of observation, which is why it's good to have something more concrete in a discussion than your personal perception. But we're not even talking about observation anymore. We're talking about you making up baseless speculation about things nobody has any information about.

Everyone jumping on that idea (and some on me) cannot fathom that anyone would reject what they themselves love.

This is a false representation of what is happening. It has nothing to do with not being able to fathom it as a possibility 4 years down the road. It's about it being irrelevant right now, because there is nothing that can or should be done about it at this point in time or anytime soon, and if something was going to be done about it in the future, it would be based on currently non-existent information.