Do you want Ovechkin to break Gretzky's goal record?

[Midnight Judges]

I don’t think you realize the seething heat that roll off your posts in some of these arguments.

I do. But really it's just a reflection of the rampant lies that constantly come out against Ovechkin, almost entirely from Pittsburgh and Canada.

This latest one - that Ovechkin hasn't played well during the later stages of his career - despite him having a top 10 point season of all time and the all-time best goal season post age 35 is merely chapter 5,982 in the book of blatant anti-Ovechkin lies.

It will never not be funny when someone uses "adjusted" stats to try propping up their point, as if the numbers are in any way definitive, conclusive, or, indeed, "real"

There are lots of data points in that post. Less than a third of them are adjusted stats.

I noticed that you responded in a shorter amount of time than it would have taken anyone to even review a fraction of the data. So you obviously didn't even look at it for any amount of time.

For some reason, you're just offended that anyone is sharing data that shows what Ovechkin's real accomplishments are.

 

[powerbomb]

There are lots of data points in that post. Less than a third of them are adjusted.

I noticed that you responded in a shorter amount of time than it would have taken anyone to even review a fraction of the data. So you obviously didn't even look at it.

For some reason, you're just offended that anyone is sharing data that shows what Ovechkin's real accomplishments are.

I responded in five minutes. What, were we supposed to take this home to study and work on our master's thesis to present afterwards? I glanced at, which is probably more than it was deserving, and laughed because, as you are wont to do, "adjusted" stats were included, to which I noted my amusement.

 

[Midnight Judges]

I responded in five minutes.

Nope. It's not the time stamp on your post. It's the mocking "like" you put on my post within about 5 seconds of me posting the data.

And again, that data set doesn't rely on adjusted stats, it merely uses them as a data point. You could throw all the adjusted stats out from that post and it's still a boat load of good data - all of which supports a very good argument in Ovie's favor. But you don't like that either, eh?

 

[powerbomb]

You poor creature; I didn't realize it was so traumatic to stir amusement in others. It is true, however, that I laughed as soon as I saw a section dedicated to the dis-reality of "adjusted" stats.

 

[KeydGV21]

Newsflash: Ovie was over a PPG with 42 goals last season (age 37) and had 90 points and 50 goals the season before that (age 36).

In fact that is the highest goal total and among the top 10 point seasons for any player ever aged 36 or older.

So this narrative that Ovechkin is compiling weak seasons is yet another pathetically false blatant lie against Ovechkin. -Which unfortunately is a well-established pattern for *ahem* some reason or other.

Note that I commented his hanging on in futures years, and then you’ll understand why I disregarded everything you said about his past seasons..

 

[McPoyle]

Your post is gibberish.

You can compare Ovechkin's seasons leading to 894 against Gretzky's, or you can compare Ovechkin's seasons leading up tp 802 to Gretzky's. Or you can compare them at the same age. Or you can adjust totals to account for Gretzky's enormous era scoring environment advantage.

But comparing Ovechkin to 894 and Gretzky to 802 is nothing more than a double standard that you just invented.

Nah, its quite relevant, and hardly a double standard (??) as this is the comment that started you on looking at 99's last 5 years:

Right now it looks like he's gonna break the record the same way Yandle broke the ironman streak record.

You responded by looking at Gretzky's final 5 seasons in the league, implying he was hanging around ala Yandle just to set the goal record. In reality he was a regular 40 goal scorer when he beat Howe's record.

If Ovi hangs around as a 15 goal scorer for 4 years it should be viewed similar to Yandle or Marleau, not Gretzky.

 

[Video Nasty]

You responded by looking at Gretzky's final 5 seasons in the league, implying he was hanging around ala Yandle just to set the goal record. In reality he was a regular 40 goal scorer when he beat Howe's record.

If Ovi hangs around as a 15 goal scorer for 4 years it should be viewed similar to Yandle or Marleau, not Gretzky.

He got you there, MidnightOvi.

 

[filinski77]

It will never not be funny when someone uses "adjusted" stats to try propping up their point, as if the numbers are in any way definitive, conclusive, or, indeed, "real"

To be fair, acting like raw stats are “conclusive” in these kind of debates is very ignorant.

Or do you think that someone who earned $110,000 in 2020 is more rich or well off than someone who earned $100,000 in 1980?

Adjusted stats are not perfect, but they’re honestly more useful to make a comparison than raw stats are.

 

[powerbomb]

To be fair, acting like raw stats are “conclusive” in these kind of debates is very ignorant.

Or do you think that someone who earned $110,000 in 2020 is more rich or well off than someone who earned $100,000 in 1980?

Adjusted stats are not perfect, but they’re honestly more useful to make a comparison than raw stats are.

Where did I advocate for raw stats? The problem with "adjusted stats" is that there is no mathematical formula that actually quantifies the myriad differences that exist across eras (equipment, rules, training, culture--there's way more going on than can reliably be accounted for by applying a variable and solving for 'x'); numbers are compelling by nature, and that's where the outright foolishness is in trying to prop up an argument by pointing to numbers in a spreadsheet that have literally been doctored.

If there was a way to conclusively prove what opinion must be correct when it comes to something like "the Greatest Of All-Time," that would be pretty neat as well as a little bit boring. Pretending that we do have a solution, and that is to multiply these totals by a value relative to what we divide on this side, etc, etc... is not the answer, but I will continue to be amused by those who endeavor to dupe themselves as well as those around them with such thinking.

Personally, I won't regard Ovechkin as the greatest goalscorer I've ever seen when/if he pots #895. Neither do I believe that Gretzky is the greatest goalscorer just because he had 894. Alas, when the numbers--whether real or make-believe--seem like they're on someone's side, you can be sure they'll don the feeling of invincibility armor in their quest to make you agree with them.

*shrug and a shimmy*

 

[tarheelhockey]

You responded by looking at Gretzky's final 5 seasons in the league, implying he was hanging around ala Yandle just to set the goal record. In reality he was a regular 40 goal scorer when he beat Howe's record.

If Ovi hangs around as a 15 goal scorer for 4 years it should be viewed similar to Yandle or Marleau, not Gretzky.

I haven’t read what was said upthread and don’t want to get into the middle of it.

So just doing a drive by — Ovechkin also moved past Howe in context of being a regular 40 goal scorer, right? Same as Gretzky.

The difference is that Gretzky did it in 1994, coming off a historically extremely high scoring run of seasons, whereas Ovechkin did it in 2023, coming off a historically average scoring run of seasons. In other words, being a regular 40-goal scorer over the past few years is more impressive than being a regular 40-goal scorer in the late 80s and early 90s. I’m not commenting on the quality of the players, but the numbers themselves.

Moving on to the current target — Gretzky hit 894 by hanging around as a 20-ish goal scorer and finishing a full season with 9 total goals. That is, to use your description, a “Yandle like” way to reach the number 894. If Ovechkin continues his current pace, he will reach the same number in the same manner. Why would it be more or less impressive for either of the players to do this? Both of them are basically doing the same thing, winding down their careers with average scoring as they finally stagger toward the same number. It’s literally the same thing being done by both of them. If Ovechkin staggers one more step forward, there’s no reason to say it’s less impressive than the other guy who staggered one step fewer.

 

[McPoyle]

Moving on to the current target — Gretzky hit 894 by hanging around as a 20-ish goal scorer and finishing a full season with 9 total goals. That is, to use your description, a “Yandle like” way to reach the number 894. If Ovechkin continues his current pace, he will reach the same number in the same manner. Why would it be more or less impressive for either of the players to do this? Both of them are basically doing the same thing, winding down their careers with average scoring as they finally stagger toward the same number. It’s literally the same thing being done by both of them. If Ovechkin staggers one more step forward, there’s no reason to say it’s less impressive than the other guy who staggered one step fewer.

Its really quite simple. 894 wasn't a target Gretzky was trying to reach, its just how many goals he had when he retired. The target he was going for was #801 and #802. So he wasn't hanging around in the league just to get a record, as he already had all of them and had for many years.

If Ovi hangs around as a 15 goal guy (who can't do anything else) its absolutely different than Gretzky continuing to widen his gap over Howe, while also being arguably the best playmaker and top 5 player in the league for his final few NHL seasons.

Ovi sticking around as a 15 goal guy is very similar to Yandle and Marleau hanging around as fringe NHLers for various records.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Ovi sticking around as a 15 goal guy is very similar to Yandle and Marleau hanging around as fringe NHLers for various records.

Except here in real life Ovechkin has scored at a 43 goal pace over the past 2.5 seasons.

 

[McPoyle]

Except here in real life Ovechkin has scored at a 43 goal pace over the past 2.5 seasons.

Im not talking about the past 2 years. Im talking about this season, and the seasons moving forward.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Its really quite simple. 894 wasn't a target Gretzky was trying to reach, its just how many goals he had when he retired. The target he was going for was #801 and #802. So he wasn't hanging around in the league just to get a record, as he already had all of them and had for many years.

If Ovi hangs around as a 15 goal guy (who can't do anything else) its absolutely different than Gretzky continuing to widen his gap over Howe, while also being arguably the best playmaker and top 5 player in the league for his final few NHL seasons.

Ovi sticking around as a 15 goal guy is very similar to Yandle and Marleau hanging around as fringe NHLers for various records.

I get what you’re saying, in terms of how it felt to see Gretzky break that record while still kind of close to his prime, but hitting 800 in the 1980s and early 1990s is a different achievement than hitting 894 in the 2000s. It’s so different that you’d expect the latter to look very different, and cut far deeper into the career of the guy who does it.

If all you’re saying is that Gretzky was a more inspiring player to watch as he broke the record, I agree. It seems that is being conflated with the impressiveness of the achievement itself, in which case I disagree.

 

[McPoyle]

I get what you’re saying, in terms of how it felt to see Gretzky break that record while still kind of close to his prime, but hitting 800 in the 1980s and early 1990s is a different achievement than hitting 894 in the 2000s. It’s so different that you’d expect the latter to look very different, and cut far deeper into the career of the guy who does it.

If all you’re saying is that Gretzky was a more inspiring player to watch as he broke the record, I agree. It seems that is being conflated with the impressiveness of the achievement itself, in which case I disagree.

Im saying Gretzky didn't stick around in the league to try and hit a milestone as MJ was suggesting he did in his earlier post.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Im not talking about the past 2 years. Im talking about this season, and the seasons moving forward.

yeah no doubt the actual data is a real pisser for your argument.

Im saying Gretzky didn't stick around in the league to try and hit a milestone as MJ was suggesting he did in his earlier post.

I said nothing of the sort.

But it's also pretty arbitrary to claim that's what Ovechkin is doing.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

Weird to see so many people not want this to happen. I think it would be great to see a major record like this broken by a guy whose career I’ve watched.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Im saying Gretzky didn't stick around in the league to try and hit a milestone as MJ was suggesting he did in his earlier post.

Ok, this is probably where I missed some context.

TBH I think you’re both right in what you’re saying, it’s just that you’re talking about two different things.

 

[McPoyle]

yeah no doubt the actual data is a real pisser for your argument.



I said nothing of the sort.

But it's also pretty arbitrary to claim that's what Ovechkin is doing.

The most relevant data we have is 88's 8 goals this year. He isn't getting back to a 43 goal pace into the future.

And yeah you did, and we have already discussed this. You brought up Gretky's final 5 years in response to someone talking about Yandle.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Pens fan so im a hater of all things Capitals/Ovechkin, Gives me great pleasure to see him struggle this season

 

[McPoyle]

Ok, this is probably where I missed some context.

TBH I think you’re both right in what you’re saying, it’s just that you’re talking about two different things.

Posts #258 and 259 provide the context for the start MJ and my talk.

 

[Midnight Judges]

The most relevant data we have is 88's 8 goals this year. He isn't getting back to a 43 goal pace into the future.

Yes I'm sure throwing out the large sample in favor of a much smaller sample seems rational.

I can do even better he's got 2 goals and 5 points in his last 4 games.

 

[catnip]

I didn't care when the record seemed impossible but he's since gotten conceivably close, and now it'd be almost a letdown to see him fizzle out.

 

[Three On Zero]

Records are meant to be broken, break it Russian machine

 

[McPoyle]

Yes I'm sure throwing out the large sample in favor of a much smaller sample seems rational.

I can do even better he's got 2 goals and 5 points in his last 4 games.

So you think Ovi will play at a 43 goal pace for the next 2-3 years? Ok, MJ. We are all delusional about certain things. Seems I know one of yours.