Do we already have a potential future Stanley Cup core with Nick & Cole? + Poll Question

[Trabdy2]

If you look at previous cup winners, you need around 4-5 star players with 2-3 really good supporting players.

Avs had McKinnon, Makar, Landeskog, Rantanen as their stars and then had really good support players in Toews, Nichuskin, Lehkonen and Kadri.

Lightning had Hedman, Stankos, Point, Kucherov, Vasilevski as their stars and then had Sergachev, Palat, Cirelli, McDonaugh and Killorn.

Ideally, we develop 5 stars and have 2 really good support players and can then trade or sign for the rest.

Right now, I'd say we only have Suzuki and Caufield that are on track to becoming stars. We have Guhle and Slaf that I can see become stars in the future. Dach and Beck could become our support players. By adding a future star like Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli or Carlsson in 2023 draft, I think we would potentially have a cup-core in a few years.

But it's a big IF cause both Guhle and Slaf need to hit their ceilings.

I agree with this overall. I think we need at least 3 of our high level prospects to hit near their projected ceilings (i.e., Slafkovsky, Mesar, Mailloux, Guhle, and maybe Hutson or Beck?) to form a core with Suzuki and Caufield. Then our supporting cast could be filled out by a few of these high level prospects not quite achieving their ceiling and mid-tier prospects hitting their ceiling (i.e., Roy, Farrell, Kidney, Trudeau, Heineman, Dobes).

At this point, I don't think the "cupboard is stocked" quite enough to have the percentages work out in our favor in terms of how many players can get near their ceiling in the next few years. One more year of picking high up in the draft should get us in a pretty good position.

 

[Tetragrammaton]

You got to love the 20%…..why not us?, what if we hit the lottery this year?, what if we have back to back drafts with diamonds everywhere?, what if we find a “Dryden” this year?…..yeah being optimistic is way more fun, lol.
Cheers

Some poster definitely didn’t understand or look at the question. A vote of NO means that you don’t think we will win a cup with Suzuki/Caufield. If someone voted NO why even follow this team anymore.. I left it open so people could change their votes.

 

[BaseballCoach]

You need a franchise center and a franchise defenceman plus an above average goalie. Habs don't have that.

Seven out of ten cups between 2010 and 2019 were won by a team where the top center averages 60-68 points per year and is good defensively.

Suzuki can certainly fill that bill in the coming seasons.

Guhle might be the required solid #1D playing 23-25 minutes and tilting the ice in favour of his team. Considering how poised he looks as a green 20 year old rookie, it is not hard to imagine him developing to close to the levels of Keith, Doughty, Pietrangelo.

An above average goalie is indeed needed, but should not be impossible to find if a team has the cash, as Montreal does.

Of course, there are more than three core pieces needed.

 

[Tetragrammaton]

Seven out of ten cups between 2010 and 2019 were won by a team where the top center averages 60-68 points per year and is good defensively.

Suzuki can certainly fill that bill in the coming seasons.

Guhle might be the required solid #1D playing 23-25 minutes and tilting the ice in favour of his team. Considering how poised he looks as a green 20 year old rookie, it is not hard to imagine him developing to close to the levels of Keith, Doughty, Pietrangelo.

An above average goalie is indeed needed, but should not be impossible to find if a team has the cash, as Montreal does.

Of course, there are more than three core pieces needed.

Goalie is the last thing we need to worry about, one will come along and get hot in the playoffs when we need him. You don’t worry about a goalie when building a team, there’s too much uncertainty, you just need a goalie to get hot at the right time.

 

[admiralcadillac]

Seven out of ten cups between 2010 and 2019 were won by a team where the top center averages 60-68 points per year and is good defensively.

Suzuki can certainly fill that bill in the coming seasons.

Guhle might be the required solid #1D playing 23-25 minutes and tilting the ice in favour of his team. Considering how poised he looks as a green 20 year old rookie, it is not hard to imagine him developing to close to the levels of Keith, Doughty, Pietrangelo.

An above average goalie is indeed needed, but should not be impossible to find if a team has the cash, as Montreal does.

Of course, there are more than three core pieces needed.

Underrated point regarding centres.

My assumption is those centers are Kopitar, Toews, Bergeron, O’Reilly

 

[CHwest]

lol

I guess a smurf like Patrick Kane would also get lost come playoff time since he too is a smurf. Or closer to home, how about Koivu, he was called a smurf yet consistently showed up big in the playoffs, Subban was pretty small for a defenceman yet was a playoff beast. Even the much maligned Drouin is soft and so by your logic should struggle the most when the rule book gets thrown out yet his best both with us and in Tampa was during the playoffs. Your living in a dream world.

Am I, we will see.

 

[BJCOLLINS]

The club still has to have a plan. It's easy to criticize other people, but I am willing to put my plan out there.

To compete in 2024-2025, with realistic expectation of making playoffs and maybe winning a round or two if things go very well:

GOAL 1A/1B
3.850 Allen
0.890 Primeau or Dobes

DEFENCE
0.863 Guhle
3.800 Barron (or Mailloux)
4.875 Matheson
0.897 Mailloux (or Barron)
2.500 Xhekaj
2.500 Harris
0.767 Kovacevic
2.350 Savard (buried)

LINE 1
7.875 Suzuki
7.500 Caufield
0.863 Heineman

LINE 2
3.375 Dach
5.500 Anderson
0.950 Slafkovsky

LINE 3
4.450 Dvorak (could be traded if strong youngster emerges)
6.500 Gallagher
0.857 Farrell or Roy

LINE 4
1.700 Evans
0.950 Mesar
0.857 Roy or Farrell or other

Extra Forwards
1.150 Pitlick or Ylonen or RHP or Pezzetta or other 13th F
0.775 Ylonen or RHP or Pezzetta or other 14th F
2.250 Armia (buried or kept instead of 13th F)

Top Additional prospects developing in AHL, Junior, College or Europe
20 yo Owen Beck
20 yo Lane Hutson
20 yo Adam Engstrom
19 yo 2023 Montreal 1st (possibly already on team)
19 yo 2023 Florida 1st
19 yo 2023 additional 1st from trading Monahan at 2023 TDL
18 yo 2024 Montreal 1st
18 yo 2024 Calgary 1st (likely year that works out to)
18 yo 2024 additional 1st from trading Edmundson at 2024 TDL

Additional B prospects
20 yo Vinzenz Rohrer
21 yo Oliver Kapanen
21 yo Riley Kidney
22 yo Luke Tuch
22 yo William Trudeau
22 yo Jan Mysak
23 yo Jayden Struble

CAP HIT OF THIS TEAM = $69.716M excluding Price
EXPECTED CAP 2024-25 = $86.800M
CAP ROOM to fill holes if some prospects do not pan out = $17.084M

No reason this team cannot compete in 2024-25 given the cap space they will have.

Well done.

 

[dcyhabs]

Underrated point regarding centres.

My assumption is those centers are Kopitar, Toews, Bergeron, O’Reilly

Damphousse over Turgeon. Take the guy who can play both ways.

 

[Help]

multiple cups. i will not elaborate on this.

 

[abo9]

The did in the OP is asking for a bit of positivism I believe:
"To be clear if you voted NO that says that you don’t believe we’re winning a cup in the Suzuki/Caufield era."

However, I answered "NO" because from the title, if my core is Suzuki and Caufield (meaning the best 2 players on the team), I don't think we have a "Stanley Cup core" - which I understand as a core that will challenge for the Cup every year during their prime.

It's possible - if the rest of the roster is great like the Blues did. But, the two of them aren't big stars enough to carry the load of a team that's not perfectly built. I think they need other players that are of similar talent or better than them - a D, another C, a G at minimum.

I believe Caufield is gonna be the biggest game changer and rarer talent, he's definitely gonna be a key component of a cup winning core. Suzuki is also solid, but I don't think he's as much of a game changer.

 

[ProMath]

Some poster definitely didn’t understand or look at the question. A vote of NO means that you don’t think we will win a cup with Suzuki/Caufield. If someone voted NO why even follow this team anymore.. I left it open so people could change their votes.

If your criteria is: Win the cup to follow a team....you should not watch hockey, or any professional sports.

The odds are against you.

Voting NO simply mean, if I had to put my money where my mouth is, I would not bet the Habs have much of a chance to win a stanley cup in the next 10-15 years. But I will still follow them (I'm not a die hard fan, I'm an hockey fan, but I follow more closely the Habs).

A trade could change thing.
2-3 prospect hitting their ceiling could change thing

But as of today, anyone who think the habs have a good chance of winning the stanley cup in the next 10-15 years is simply putting rose glasses.

We're on the right track to improve our chance...but still have so many question mark.

 

[ProMath]

Seven out of ten cups between 2010 and 2019 were won by a team where the top center averages 60-68 points per year and is good defensively.

Go deeper than this.

Look the last 15 years. Try to find how many team won the stanley cup without a top 15 defenseman in the league.

Winning without a top 15 defenseman in the league (top 15 the years he wins the cup) is almost impossible even if you have elite center.

That is what is missing right now with the habs. Guhle is nice, but I don't think he will reach that kind of level sadly and unless some prospect come from the left field...we have nothing to fill that void. We start to look like the leaf and oilers who went all offense and took care of the defense way too late during the rebuild.

 

[Canad13ns]

It is a good model too follow but the Habs don’t have a MacKinnon, Rantanen or Makar yet. Maybe Slaf can become Nichuskin.

Nichuskin took forever to become Nichuskin and had to be traded to take the next step. Let's hope Slaf can develop quicker and won't require the psychological wake-up call/new beginning of a trade to hit his ceiling.

 

[Tetragrammaton]

No other city has a young upcoming team like us, though a couple might be close. We’re gonna shed our bad contracts and sign some great free agents in the next couple of years.. Dubois perhaps..

Suzuki 22
Harris 22
Caufield 21
Dach 21
Xhecaj 21
Guhle 20
Barron 20
Farrell 20
Heineman 20
Mailloux 19
Slafkovsky 18
Beck 18
Mesar 18
Hutson 18
2023 1st round pick (x2 minimum) 17/18

Must be lots of Toronto/Boston/Ottawa fans in the poll who voted NO. The poll question is different then the thread title, that also could be confusing, but if the actual poll question is read it’s pretty clear.

We’re winning at least 1 Stanley cup with these kids.

 

[Tetragrammaton]

Go deeper than this.

Look the last 15 years. Try to find how many team won the stanley cup without a top 15 defenseman in the league.

Winning without a top 15 defenseman in the league (top 15 the years he wins the cup) is almost impossible even if you have elite center.

That is what is missing right now with the habs. Guhle is nice, but I don't think he will reach that kind of level sadly and unless some prospect come from the left field...we have nothing to fill that void. We start to look like the leaf and oilers who went all offense and took care of the defense way too late during the rebuild.

Guhle made Crosby look foolish a few times, just what he showed in that game alone tells me he’s gonna be an elite defenseman. He’s got all the tools and the toolbox, he’s a complete package. Don’t forget we have Mailloux who has a very high ceiling as well.

 

[NORiculous]

Nichuskin took forever to become Nichuskin and had to be traded to take the next step. Let's hope Slaf can develop quicker and won't require the psychological wake-up call/new beginning of a trade to hit his ceiling.

Most big guys take longer.

Nichushkin has followed the normal pace for most big guys that do breakout. Slaf could very well follow this pace. That would actually make him a decent pick, IMO.

I have more fear that he stays Turner Stevenson then he turns into Nichushkin.

 

[Canad13ns]

Most big guys take longer.

Nichushkin has followed the normal pace for most big guys that do breakout. Slaf could very well follow this pace. That would actually make him a decent pick, IMO.

I have more fear that he stays Turner Stevenson then he turns into Nichushkin.

If you’re able to wait another 9 years OK, because Nichushkin literally didn’t realize his potential till 2022. We’ve been waiting since 1993, so maybe we can wait, but if Slaf doesn’t get great till he’s 27, Caufield and Suzuki will be 31 and 32 (likely very good but not peak).

 

[Tetragrammaton]

What team can deal with our toughness now?

Who’s the midget team now? Not us.

 

[Notabaguette]

There really isn’t

Caufield is #4 in even goals since st Louis
Guhle could be a beast
Slaf is a #1 pick

There is

 

[BaseballCoach]

Go deeper than this.

Look the last 15 years. Try to find how many team won the stanley cup without a top 15 defenseman in the league.

Winning without a top 15 defenseman in the league (top 15 the years he wins the cup) is almost impossible even if you have elite center.

That is what is missing right now with the habs. Guhle is nice, but I don't think he will reach that kind of level sadly and unless some prospect come from the left field...we have nothing to fill that void. We start to look like the leaf and oilers who went all offense and took care of the defense way too late during the rebuild.

Yep, a top D is important. Guhle MIGHT become that top-15 D. If not, and if Barron or Mailloux are not that guy either, then they will have to use some of that $17M in cap space to find the right leader back there.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Just seeing how well Suzuki and CC played in the Cup run has me believing. They played like winners. They're only getting better.

So many other kids looking real good. The prospect situation looks very good and we got a bunch of high round picks in the next 3 drafts with the potential for more. We're in a terrific spot.

 

[Grand Admiral Thrawn]

If we somehow get a prime Markov, Robinson, Roy and Turgeon back yes we are cup contenders

 

[SwiftyHab]

So I think this is a good question. Now We may not be a Stanley cup contending team, but we might be more of a playoff bubble team this year more than a last place one.

That will definetly be interesting because it’s not part of the plan. When we get our top two D back, we can only be better defensively.

Things are getting weird

 

[BaseballCoach]

Some poster definitely didn’t understand or look at the question. A vote of NO means that you don’t think we will win a cup with Suzuki/Caufield. If someone voted NO why even follow this team anymore.. I left it open so people could change their votes.

In a five year period 2025-2030, even if we become a consistent top-12 team, our chances of winning a cup might be less than 50%. But if we are in a few conference finals and a Cup final or two, and have good regular seasons as well (the playoffs ae not a fluke) there is no reason not to follow such an exciting team.

 

[tinyzombies]

We are going to have to replace the aging size with skilled size. Suzuki is 208 and can handle himself, love him as a leader. Need a goalie and a #1 (RD ideally). That’s 3-4 top tier players we’re missing. Love the path we’re on though.