Prospect Info: Devon Levi, G, Northeastern University (obtained in Reinhart deal) - Signed 3/17/23, Assigned 4/3/24

[Jim Bob]

Depends on the guy but I think jumping from 40ish games to 65ish games isn't always the wall it's made out to be. Especially if you have 5 months to prepare and the S+C staff are guiding you. Levi seems to be a preparation guy and I'd bet he'll be ready. We'll probably find out next season.

It isn't something that work in the weight room helps with.

It is more about the grind that comes with playing more games. It will also be about the change in routine that he will deal with going from college that has a pretty structured routine with games almost always on Friday & Saturday and a set practice week from Monday through Thursday.

The NHL has a very different schedule and way more travel than college had. It will be a sizable transition for Levi. And the fact that he is a really routine driven guy, that might create unique challenges as he adapts to the change in schedule on top of all the game play changes he will be dealing with, as well.

It's different, but we saw Power hit a wall mid-season after making the jump from college. If they expect Levi to play 60+ NHL games next year, he will more than likely hit a rookie wall at some point.

 

[Matt Ress]

It isn't something that work in the weight room helps with.

It is more about the grind that comes with playing more games. It will also be about the change in routine that he will deal with going from college that has a pretty structured routine with games almost always on Friday & Saturday and a set practice week from Monday through Thursday.

The NHL has a very different schedule and way more travel than college had. It will be a sizable transition for Levi. And the fact that he is a really routine driven guy, that might create unique challenges as he adapts to the change in schedule on top of all the game play changes he will be dealing with, as well.

It's different, but we saw Power hit a wall mid-season after making the jump from college. If they expect Levi to play 60+ NHL games next year, he will more than likely hit a rookie wall at some point.

You don't think the way he exercises plays a role? Again yeah, there's other factors but the way you uphold your body throughout the season is a pretty big factor.

And I'm with you, Jim. I would love to stash Levi in Rochester and get a legit #1. But there's a possibility that won't happen and he carries the load next season.

Above being a creature of habit, I'd bet he's conscious enough of himself to understand his own mind and body and probably getting good advice to be successful. I guess we're in speculatory no man's land at this point lol.

 

[Jim Bob]

You don't think the way he exercises plays a role? Again yeah, there's other factors but the way you uphold your body throughout the season is a pretty big factor.

And I'm with you, Jim. I would love to stash Levi in Rochester and get a legit #1. But there's a possibility that won't happen and he carries the load next season.

Above being a creature of habit, I'd bet he's conscious enough of himself to understand his own mind and body and probably getting good advice to be successful. I guess we're in speculatory no man's land at this point lol.

There are issues that can be resolved in the weight room. The challenges that come with an increased workload are things that create a mental and physical load that the player has to go through to develop the capacity to endure. It's like how players talk about how getting "game legs" can only happen by playing games and off ice work and practice cannot get you there alone.

The vast majority of players have to adapt to being asked to do things at the NHL level that they have never done before. That almost always comes through learning, trial, and error. Expecting Levi to not have those types of growing pains is not being realistic and setting yourself up for disappointment.

Even if you look at a guy like Swayman, he still hasn't been asked to play in over 50 games as he transitions from college to the NHL. And this was his third NHL season. This season was Oettinger's 4th pro season and the first time that he played over 50 NHL games. Knight has had two pro seasons and has yet to break the 50 NHL games played mark.

 

[Matt Ress]

There are issues that can be resolved in the weight room. The challenges that come with an increased workload are things that create a mental and physical load that the player has to go through to develop the capacity to endure. It's like how players talk about how getting "game legs" can only happen by playing games and off ice work and practice cannot get you there alone.

The vast majority of players have to adapt to being asked to do things at the NHL level that they have never done before. That almost always comes through learning, trial, and error. Expecting Levi to not have those types of growing pains is not being realistic and setting yourself up for disappointment.

Even if you look at a guy like Swayman, he still hasn't been asked to play in over 50 games as he transitions from college to the NHL. And this was his third NHL season. This season was Oettinger's 4th pro season and the first time that he played over 50 NHL games. Knight has had two pro seasons and has yet to break the 50 NHL games played mark.

So yeah of course training has a lot to do with it. I think the game legs portion is outdated though. Sports training has come a long way in the last 20 years. There would no doubt be some bumps in the road but Levi strikes me as a very bright person. And it probably seems like I'm overstating that but we all know the huge difference in effectiveness between a mentally strong person and one not so much. Discipline, confidence, self examination, determination... possessions of those that are successful in whatever they do. If nothing else, I'm confident that the staff will make the right decision.

 

[MOGlLNY]

It's half the reason I got a job in a restaurant lol.

I agree there's a lot of moving parts involved. My hope is that Levi gets to spend the year in Rochester and the Sabres get a legit #1 but my point was that the experience and ability is different for each person and it's not quite the conversation ender that some think it is. Like the comment above yours. Folks can seem so confident in their opinion with so little information available to them. It amazes me. Lol

Huh? You mean like the fact that it’s ultra rare for any goalie to make the jump from a college schedule to an NHL schedule and have sustained success? There’s piles and piles of information saying why it’s very difficult. That’s not even including when shooters get games and games of information on them.

Vasy played in the KHL and was still eased into an NHL schedule. Because I don’t know Devon Levi personally I can’t make the assumption that he will hit a wall?

 

[Matt Ress]

Huh? You mean like the fact that it’s ultra rare for any goalie to make the jump from a college schedule to an NHL schedule and have sustained success? There’s piles and piles of information saying why it’s very difficult. That’s not even including when shooters get games and games of information on them.

Vasy played in the KHL and was still eased into an NHL schedule. Because I don’t know Devon Levi personally I can’t make the assumption that he will hit a wall?

You can assume anything you want and I can certainly see why one would. Still doesn't make it a fact like you presented it.

 

[Jim Bob]

You can assume anything you want and I can certainly see why one would. Still doesn't make it a fact like you presented it.

It is not a matter of fact. It is a matter of what can you reasonably expect.

For me, it is unreasonable to expect that Levi could play 50+ NHL games in 2023-24 and not hit a rookie wall and have stretches where he really struggles due to the various adjustments that it will take going from the NCAA to the NHL and attempting to play a lot more games than he has ever played before and with more pressure on him than ever before.

 

[TageGod]

It is not a matter of fact. It is a matter of what can you reasonably expect.

For me, it is unreasonable to expect that Levi could play 50+ NHL games in 2023-24 and not hit a rookie wall and have stretches where he really struggles due to the various adjustments that it will take going from the NCAA to the NHL and attempting to play a lot more games than he has ever played before and with more pressure on him than ever before.

This kid does not care about pressure he thrives on it. The only way he really struggles would be poor goaltender coaching, which I've kind of suspected for a while now.

 

[Jim Bob]

This kid does not care about pressure he thrives on it. The only way he really struggles would be poor goaltender coaching, which I've kind of suspected for a while now.

To expect Levi to not struggle and to blame any struggles he has on coaching is not realistic, IMO.

He had 2 out of 7 starts where his save percentage was below .875 and he did not look great. That was not on coaching.

 

[Matt Ress]

It is not a matter of fact. It is a matter of what can you reasonably expect.

For me, it is unreasonable to expect that Levi could play 50+ NHL games in 2023-24 and not hit a rookie wall and have stretches where he really struggles due to the various adjustments that it will take going from the NCAA to the NHL and attempting to play a lot more games than he has ever played before and with more pressure on him than ever before.

Sure no doubt it would be difficult if that's how it plays out. But we all agree it's not the only possible outcome, whatever subjective expectations one may hold. There's a chance we'll find out in the next 12 months.

I understand why some don't, but I believe Adams will put the team in a position for long term success.

Whether that means going to get another guy or leaning on Levi will be up to him and the staff. I also think they take a more individualistic approach to player roles than we can here and we've seen evidence of that. Heck, their entire coaching philosophy is built on that notion.

This is why I'm trying to not be presumptuous about the decisions of the coaching and FO staff. That's all. I understand recent goalie trends and generic prospect paths. I also think that Levi is an exceptional character and while imperfect in his play, I believe he'll be successful however the team deploys him.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Huh? You mean like the fact that it’s ultra rare for any goalie to make the jump from a college schedule to an NHL schedule and have sustained success? There’s piles and piles of information saying why it’s very difficult. That’s not even including when shooters get games and games of information on them.

Vasy played in the KHL and was still eased into an NHL schedule. Because I don’t know Devon Levi personally I can’t make the assumption that he will hit a wall?

Beyond that NHL goalies don’t play 65. In fact it would be strange even if you included preseason starts for a goalie to break 65 starts. 7 goalies saw 60 starts none made it to 65. Stuart skinner got 50 as a 24yr old rookie and Calder finalist. So if Levi plays 65 he is winning the Calder and is probably having the greatest rookie season since selanne.

 

[Jim Bob]

Sure no doubt it would be difficult if that's how it plays out. But we all agree it's not the only possible outcome, whatever subjective expectations one may hold. There's a chance we'll find out in the next 12 months.

I understand why some don't, but I believe Adams will put the team in a position for long term success.

Whether that means going to get another guy or leaning on Levi will be up to him and the staff. I also think they take a more individualistic approach to player roles than we can here and we've seen evidence of that. Heck, their entire coaching philosophy is built on that notion.

This is why I'm trying to not be presumptuous about the decisions of the coaching and FO staff. That's all. I understand recent goalie trends and generic prospect paths. I also think that Levi is an exceptional character and while imperfect in his play, I believe he'll be successful however the team deploys him.

I do not believe that is anywhere close to the case.

Players need to be put in positions to succeed. We have seen that with all sorts of guys. And while there have been a bunch of successes under Adams & Granato, they have relied on certain players to fill roles that they have proven that they are not capable of. Jokiharju as Power's partner is the biggest example.

I have high expectations for Levi. But, I do not think he is ready to be a 50+ NHL game #1 starter today. I expect that he gets there. But, he's not ready yet.

And to bring up the Bruce Nolan formula of Disappointment = Expectations - Reality, I think a lot of Sabres fans are setting themselves up for disappointment if they are expecting Levi to be a 50+ NHL game #1 starter in 2023-24 and to do so at a really high level and without growing pains,

 

[Matt Ress]

I do not believe that is anywhere close to the case.

Players need to be put in positions to succeed. We have seen that with all sorts of guys. And while there have been a bunch of successes under Adams & Granato, they have relied on certain players to fill roles that they have proven that they are not capable of. Jokiharju as Power's partner is the biggest example.

I have high expectations for Levi. But, I do not think he is ready to be a 50+ NHL game #1 starter today. I expect that he gets there. But, he's not ready yet.

And to bring up the Bruce Nolan formula of Disappointment = Expectations - Reality, I think a lot of Sabres fans are setting themselves up for disappointment if they are expecting Levi to be a 50+ NHL game #1 starter in 2023-24 and to do so at a really high level and without growing pains,

I mean, that's not really what I'm saying. I've said several times that I hope they go get a legit #1 and are able to nurse Levi in Rochester. But, if Adams and the coaches feel comfortable leaning on Levi in Buffalo, I'll feel comfortable that they're making the right decision. Nobody would expect smooth sailing but I would guess if they're confident that his style would be cohesive with their defensive scheme and Levi would be physically and mentally prepared, then I'm cool with it. I'm sure there would be a meltdown here though and I'll be called a shill.

 

[TageGod]

To expect Levi to not struggle and to blame any struggles he has on coaching is not realistic, IMO.

He had 2 out of 7 starts where his save percentage was below .875 and he did not look great. That was not on coaching.

Some of the best goalies have awful games. As a whole I expect over .900 from him this year. I can see him get 30-40 depending on the level of goalie brought in. If nothing else, he can allow us to win some games 3-2.

The coaching is a bit independent of this. I just think a decade of poor goaltending having no prospects perform well here. One bad PK year were on the replace Christie train but 10 years of bad goalies not a word. Mike bales should be gone years ago. It is a real concern for me.

 

[Gras]

This kid does not care about pressure he thrives on it. The only way he really struggles would be poor goaltender coaching, which I've kind of suspected for a while now.

Or he struggles with the conditioning and physicality of the league.

 

[TageGod]

Or he struggles with the conditioning and physicality of the league.

He walked in and played 7 games in a row. Was it an issue then?

 

[Jim Bob]

Some of the best goalies have awful games. As a whole I expect over .900 from him this year. I can see him get 30-40 depending on the level of goalie brought in. If nothing else, he can allow us to win some games 3-2.

The coaching is a bit independent of this. I just think a decade of poor goaltending having no prospects perform well here. One bad PK year were on the replace Christie train but 10 years of bad goalies not a word. Mike bales should be gone years ago. It is a real concern for me.

A .900 Save% is slightly worse than league average.

I doubt too many people would be thrilled with that given the hype.

He walked in and played 7 games in a row. Was it an issue then?

A 7 game sample size is too small to tell you much of anything.

Just look at Mitts putting up 5 points in 6 games in 17-18 and then having 25 points in 77 games in 18-19.

Or Spencer Knight putting up a .919 in 4 games in 20-21 and then .908 in 32 games in 21-22 and .901 in 21 games in 22-23.

 

[TageGod]

A .900 Save% is slightly worse than league average.

I doubt too many people would be thrilled with that given the hype.


A 7 game sample size is too small to tell you much of anything.

Just look at Mitts putting up 5 points in 6 games in 17-18 and then having 25 points in 77 games in 18-19.

Or Spencer Knight putting up a .919 in 4 games in 20-21 and then .908 in 32 games in 21-22 and .901 in 21 games in 22-23.

That is true but considerably better than we had. .905 to be exact wins us a few more games.

 

[Jim Bob]

That is true but considerably better than we had. .905 to be exact wins us a few more games.

Only if you get to handpick which saves are made. And that is not how it works.

5% more saves in games they won by 3 goals already doesn't move the needle.

 

[Matt Ress]

I mean if we're cherry picking, there were a couple guys plucked that had nice stints and dropped off but there's tons of guys that built upon those small samples. It's almost like each player and their path is different.

 

[Ehran]

Players will learn Levi's tendencies and adjust. It's just the way it is.

Question becomes how will Levi adjust?

 

[tsujimoto74]

He walked in and played 7 games in a row. Was it an issue then?

That’s a small enough sample size that it doesn’t really answer the question. Endurance to play at a high level for an entire NHL season is an open question. I don’t think we should be asking that of Levi next season anyway. If we can bring in a better 1A starter to platoon him with than Comrie, we should be in good shape in goal for both the short and long term.

 

[slip]

I'm expecting 35-45 games out of Levi next season, Comrie with 30-40, and 5-15 for what remains on our goalie depth chart. I would not spend quality assets seeking out a #1 goalie. Levi/Comrie should be sufficient to get us into the playoffs.

 

[Jim Bob]

I mean if we're cherry picking, there were a couple guys plucked that had nice stints and dropped off but there's tons of guys that built upon those small samples. It's almost like each player and their path is different.

There is not a long list of former 7th round picks that have done it.

And even a guy like Owen Power hit a rookie wall and had a stretch when he struggled when asked to carry a heavy load.

 

[Sabre Dance]

I'm expecting 35-45 games out of Levi next season, Comrie with 30-40, and 5-15 for what remains on our goalie depth chart. I would not spend quality assets seeking out a #1 goalie. Levi/Comrie should be sufficient to get us into the playoffs.

Wrong answer.