Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[glenwo2]

Wright would be a great get, but some teams might get desperate for that #1 C tag. Agree with what you've said on Slaf.

HOW desperate, though?

I mean...what player (realistically) would be worth giving up Shane f'n Wright for?


I just don't see Fitz trading away a virtual golden-ticket that can solidify our Center position for DECADES to come...

 

[bigd]

Great post, agree with a. lot of what is said here. Trading the #2 pick is most likely going to be a loss for us.

 

[glenwo2]

Or as was pointed out a few posts ago, the Devils could be just as paranoid as a number of posters here that the Habs pick Slaf and let Wright drop, then it becomes a different discussion if we’re strengthening a strength (center) as opposed to getting a power forward

Getting Wright would not be just a case of "strengthening a strength". It would be getting a player who has a very good chance at being Elite (much like Slaf).

The talent level starts dropping immediately after those two (Slaf and Wright) so it would behoove Fitz to make sure he comes out of that draft with either of them.

From what I'm hearing from scouts there's no clear number 2 pick. After #1 the next 10 spots are a toss up.
NJ doesn't have Slafkousky ranked that high so if they can get the right deal they will most likely trade the pick.

More speculation.

"From what I'm hearing" might as well be "a little birdie told me" at this point...

 

[TF1970]

maybe they trade down at most a few spots, but IMO close to zero chance they outright deal away the #2 pick for current player(s). this shit gets said every year, how so-and-so is open to moving said pick. but it never happens.

 

[Lou is God]

From what I'm hearing from scouts there's no clear number 2 pick. After #1 the next 10 spots are a toss up.
NJ doesn't have Slafkousky ranked that high so if they can get the right deal they will most likely trade the pick.

Are you just making stuff up??

 

[FooteBahl]

From what I'm hearing from scouts there's no clear number 2 pick. After #1 the next 10 spots are a toss up.
NJ doesn't have Slafkousky ranked that high so if they can get the right deal they will most likely trade the pick.

Yeah, a 6’4” 220 lb beast with silky mitts…we probably have him on the board with one of our 4th round picks

 

[Stephen Gionta]

I would try to offer the pick to Florida for Spencer Knight.

Doubt Florida would accept though.

 

[Bleedred]

I would try to offer the pick to Florida for Spencer Knight.

Doubt Florida would accept though.

No way, just no way.

Spencer Knight hasn't proven to be a very good goalie RIGHT NOW in the NHL.

We need a goalie that's good RIGHT NOW.

If we're acquiring Spencer Knight right now, we can't use the 2nd overall pick for him.

You should be able to get an ELITE RIGHT NOW talent for the 2nd overall pick and Spencer Knight is NOT an ELITE TALENT RIGHT NOW. Not even close.

He was another one who was rushed into the NHL, in no small part due to Bobrovsky's cap hit being way too high.

So it's either use him or some veteran that's an NHL/AHL tweener third string type. Which is exactly what Chris Driedger was, although they did get two really good (probably greatly overachieving) years out of him.

Once they signed Bobrovsky, they went into that year with Montembeault making the team (a BUSTED prospect) and when he failed they had to call up Driedger from the AHL.

 

[Devils731]

I would try to offer the pick to Florida for Spencer Knight.

Doubt Florida would accept though.

Spencer Knight is likely worth less than his original draft position.

Not the he isn’t a good prospect but he just had an fine but unspectacular rookie season and didn’t crush his AHL games either. Also, goalie prospects traditionally don’t get full trade value on potential because everyone knows goalies have so much voodoo when predicting their future.

As an example with the Devils, Schneider had a spectacular NHL track record at time of his trade and the Devils didn’t have to add anything to 9th overall. The difference in value between 2nd and 9th overall is pretty large as well.

 

[StevenToddIves]

First of all, I really love your excitement about all these prospects and your deep interest and knowledge to drafts. But if I may offer a criticism, or maybe more of a request, I think the way you hype these players up and focus on the strong parts sometimes reads as if every one of these prospects is a great future nhler. Which we obviously know isn't the case as about half of the skaters picked in the first few rounds don't become regulars (not to even mention the last rounds). So what I would like is more critical analysis on their weaknesses and how likely is it that they become a top6 talent or even have a spot in the (nhl) lineup.

In my individual player draft write-ups, I always mention areas of concern/weakness for prospects.

However, the post of mine you cited was a response to a post saying Slafkovsky was bad in a game the media universally lauded him as the best player on his team in. I felt this needed to be addressed, because it happens far too much in these threads and on social media.

If you ask me what might hold back any prospect from the NHL, I would gladly tell you. There are no Connor McDavids or Auston Matthews in this year's draft. However, usually with top 10 picks more has to happen for them not to make it than to make it.

 

[StevenToddIves]

From what I'm hearing from scouts there's no clear number 2 pick. After #1 the next 10 spots are a toss up.
NJ doesn't have Slafkousky ranked that high so if they can get the right deal they will most likely trade the pick.

There is a widening gulf between Wright and Slafkovsky at 1/2 and the rest of the 2022 draft class. The #2 pick is overwhelmingly likely to be whichever of these two does not go #1 overall. There is always the possibility of a "Kotkaniemi Pick" where a team clearly opts for positional need extremely early over pure potential, but this is a rarity so high in the draft.

 

[Bleedred]

Spencer Knight is likely worth less than his original draft position.

Not the he isn’t a good prospect but he just had an fine but unspectacular rookie season and didn’t crush his AHL games either. Also, goalie prospects traditionally don’t get full trade value on potential because everyone knows goalies have so much voodoo when predicting their future.

As an example with the Devils, Schneider had a spectacular NHL track record at time of his trade and the Devils didn’t have to add anything to 9th overall. The difference in value between 2nd and 9th overall is pretty large as well.

Yup

Schneider was MUCH more PROVEN at the time we got him. He'd played WAYYY more games already in the NHL and he looked WAYYYYYY BETTER while playing them.

The only thing Knight in 2022 has over Schneider in 2013 is that he's 6 years younger.

Schneider had already appeared in close to 100 NHL regular season games (98 to be exact) by that point and 108 when you include playoffs at the time we got him.

Knight has appeared in 38 playoff and regular season NHL games combined.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

From what I'm hearing from scouts there's no clear number 2 pick. After #1 the next 10 spots are a toss up.
NJ doesn't have Slafkousky ranked that high so if they can get the right deal they will most likely trade the pick.

18 year hiatus from HF and now you are back claiming to speak to both pro scouts and amateur scouts in the system. It doesn't add up to me. I'd be surprised if NJ has even started their war room discussions in advance of the 23 draft, their scouts are still out doing their thing.

 

[tailfins]

Yup

Schneider was MUCH more PROVEN at the time we got him. He'd played WAYYY more games already in the NHL and he looked WAYYYYYY BETTER while playing them.

The only thing Knight in 2022 has over Schneider in 2013 is that he's 6 years younger.

Schneider had already appeared in close to 100 NHL regular season games (98 to be exact) by that point and 108 when you include playoffs at the time we got him.

Knight has appeared in 38 playoff and regular season NHL games combined.

I can’t imagine Florida trades Knight.

But, let’s say for #2OA it’s possible.

What’s worst (realistic) case scenario for Knight? Jim Carey? Brian Boucher?

Meanwhile, I think for Slaf it’s Viktor Kozlov. Is it awful to trade Kozlov for Carey or Boucher? I think Florida wins that deal, but by how much really? And, if the Devils end up with one flash in the pan run from Knight, does that offset everything? Boucher almost won a Cup. Carey (inexplicably) won a Vezina.

If I’m Fitz and Florida was actually open to moving Knight, I think hard about how to make a deal work.

So I think the idea makes sense for the Devils.

I just don’t think it’s worth talking about because it’s a non-starter for the Panthers.

 

[Bleedred]

I can’t imagine Florida trades Knight.

But, let’s say for #2OA it’s possible.

What’s worst (realistic) case scenario for Knight? Jim Carey? Brian Boucher?

Meanwhile, I think for Slaf it’s Viktor Kozlov. Is it awful to trade Kozlov for Carey or Boucher? I think Florida wins that deal, but by how much really? And, if the Devils end up with one flash in the pan run from Knight, does that offset everything? Boucher almost won a Cup. Carey (inexplicably) won a Vezina.

If I’m Fitz and Florida was actually open to moving Knight, I think hard about how to make a deal work.

So I think the idea makes sense for the Devils.

I just don’t think it’s worth talking about because it’s a non-starter for the Panthers.

If Knight could actually help us next year, it's something to argue.

We don't have anything other than hope and faith to rely on Knight being able to help us as soon as next year. Knight would be helping us in maybe 2-3 years if he's pretty good.

Yeah, he's an improvement from everybody we iced this year, but that's because Blackwood is more than likely a worthless no count goalie at this stage, Hammond and Gillies are AHL goalies at best and Daws is at the very best much further from the NHL than Knight is at this point.

 

[Darkauron]

Let me ask Dano to see if we have Slaf on our board.....


He is! Dano said so!

 

[tailfins]

One other issue: people are using historical data to value the #2OA pick as if it’s the same across years.

But it’s not. The value of Eichel in 2015 was WAAYYYY different than Ryan Murray in 2012. Or Hischier / Patrick in 2017.

If you’ve got #2OA in 2012 or 2017, do you make a deal for help in the shorter term? Or do you roll the dice and hope you get Slavin or Hertl or Makar or Petterson and not Murray (or Galchenyuk or Reinhardt - wow that 2012 draft was terrible) or Patrick?

 

[bigd]

Getting Wright would not be just a case of "strengthening a strength". It would be getting a player who has a very good chance at being Elite (much like Slaf).

The talent level starts dropping immediately after those two (Slaf and Wright) so it would behoove Fitz to make sure he comes out of that draft with either of them.



More speculation.

"From what I'm hearing" might as well be "a little birdie told me" at this point...

 

[glenwo2]

Are you just making stuff up??

Yes he is.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

One other issue: people are using historical data to value the #2OA pick as if it’s the same across years.

But it’s not. The value of Eichel in 2015 was WAAYYYY different than Ryan Murray in 2012. Or Hischier / Patrick in 2017.

If you’ve got #2OA in 2012 or 2017, do you make a deal for help in the shorter term? Or do you roll the dice and hope you get Slavin or Hertl or Makar or Petterson and not Murray (or Galchenyuk or Reinhardt - wow that 2012 draft was terrible) or Patrick?

This.

I would say this years 2nd overall is one of the weaker ones in terms of pre draft value.

That's why I think if the Devils have the opportunity to add (arguably) the best goalie prospect in hockey (Spencer Knight) I think they should take that chance.

 

[glenwo2]

Let me ask Dano to see if we have Slaf on our board.....


He is! Dano said so!

 

[glenwo2]

@bigd
Stop taking people's posts and changing them.

It's childish and inflammatory.

EDIT : WAIT A SEC! Was there a posting fail here?

 

[Devils731]

This.

I would say this years 2nd overall is one of the weaker ones in terms of pre draft value.

That's why I think if the Devils have the opportunity to add (arguably) the best goalie prospect in hockey (Spencer Knight) I think they should take that chance.

Nico’s draft year was “weak” at the top and instead generated a bunch of really good players at the top.

Knight hasn’t proved anything at the NHL and top goalie prospects are less likely to pan out than top forward prospects.

I wouldn’t trade any of the Devils possible draft choices at 2 for Knight.

 

[glenwo2]

You know @bigd I just realized something...

Did you make a mistake when posting your reply above?

'Cause it looks like you have me saying "LOL! This is a fan forum, everything on here is speculation. I like to think my source is legit but no one knows what will happen until it happens, not even Fitz."

It says "glenwo2 said : " followed by the above which is why it seems like you took my reply and changed it.

 

[Devils731]

You know @bigd I just realized something...

Did you make a mistake when posting your reply above?

'Cause it looks like you have me saying "LOL! This is a fan forum, everything on here is speculation. I like to think my source is legit but no one knows what will happen until it happens, not even Fitz."

It says "glenwo2 said : " followed by the above which is why it seems like you took my reply and changed it.

I don’t want to speak for him but it did look like it was just a quoting error.

On the new system, I deleted the end of someone’s quote and then somehow when I started typing it made a new quote box attributed to the original poster. It was hard to delete this second quote box too.