Seeing reports from Elliotte Friedman that the Devils are considering trade options for the 2nd overall pick is just purely frustrating to hear as a fan. Why is this report even out there? This team finished 37 points out of a playoff spot - the last playoff spot! Yes, the team had significant goaltending issues (which are still outstanding) and critical injuries but even without all that, it is still far away. But I am not dismissive of the progress and promise of this team - they seem to have a strong base with Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Sharangovich, Mercer, Boqvist, Siengenthaler (an excellent trade by Fitzgerald for a 3rd) etc along with still having an excellent farm system highlighted by L. Hughes, Holtz, Gritsyuk etc. but to think they are even considering trade options with the 2nd overall pick is just short sighted and stupid at this point.
Since the inception of the NHL cap in 2005 - 2006 season, there has not been one trade involving a team drafting in the top 5 trading its pick for an established player. These are the limited number of trades of top 10 picks being dealt for a player (not including trades of a future 1st for a player that becomes a high pick (Karlsson or Duchene trades or trades like the 2008 Islanders - Nashville trade of swap of 7th and 9th Pick) in the Cap era:
- Devils trading 9th overall to Vancouver for Cory Schneider
- Columbus trading Jacob Voracek, 3rd rounder and 8th overall (Flyers selected Sean Couturier) to Flyers for Jeff Carter
- Penguins trading Jordan Staal to Carolina for 8th Overall (Derrick Pouliot), Sutter and Dumoulin
- Rangers trading Derek Stepan and Antti Raanta to Arizona for 7th overall (Lias Andersson) and Tony DeAngelo and
- Canucks trading 9th overall along with a 2022 2nd round pick and salary fillers of Beagle, Eriksson and Rousell for OEL (massive contract and diminished play) and Connor Garland.
This organization apparently prides itself for its data analytics and this is the data on these trades. I was a math major and I am providing the historical data on these trades. There are zero trades involving a top 5 pick in the cap era and in this case, we are talking about the 2nd overall pick.
There are many reasons why these trades do not happen but two critical reasons are the following:
- Selecting a player with this high a draft selection has the greatest rate of success of a team hitting on the selection. Yes, there are several misses but look at the high level of success when selecting in the top 4 selections in 2013 to 2018 drafts:
2013: MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Jones
2014: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett
2015: McDavid, Eichel, D. Strome, Marner
2016: Matthews, Laine, Luc-Dubois, Puljujarvi
2017: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen, Makar
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, B. Tkachuk
And since this is the 2nd pick, there should be less volatility with the selection.
- These players are cost controlled in a cap era. No different than an NFL team maximizing the savings of a rookie qb deal, it is the same with the NHL. Colorado is still enjoying the benefits of signing MacKinnon to an extension earlier on in his career (signed to a 7 year - $44m) which runs through next year. If the Devils utilize the 2nd overall pick and hit on the pick, it will provide them much greater cap flexibility as their existing core ages. Also, they could get the benefit of an elite player who could extend the competitive window of Hischier and Hughes as they age.
The fact is that teams who are selecting in the top 5 do not trade the pick for good reason - it is just stupid. Go look at football and it is never done. It is done in basketball but it is a much different sport because the impact of one player on a team in that sport is unique and when it occurs, it is for a championship. Think of the Cavaliers trading #1 overall pick (Andrew Wiggins) to Minnesota for Kevin Love after resigning Lebron to pair with Kyrie. The Lakers also traded the 4th overall Pick (DeAndre Hunter) in a package for Anthony Davis and the Celtics traded the 5th pick (Jeff Green) as part of a package for Ray Allen in order to combine with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. But if you notice, the Cavaliers, Lakers and Celtics were set up to win a championship right away with these trades of a high pick. You really think if the Devils move this pick, they will win a championship in 3 years? It is not happening.
And do not think the Devils are now ahead of the curve with this thinking of trading a top 5 pick. Nothing done by this ownership and management team these last number of years should give a fan of this team that level of confidence and trust. Do you hear a report of someone like Steve Yzerman in Detroit who has a track record from building Tampa, considering trading its high pick? Why are we even hearing that the Devils are considering moving the pick? It just sounds desperate which is never a good look.
Yes, is there a player or package in which you would move the pick? Sure but let teams come to you and do it quietly - it should not be so advertised like it seems to be the case here. We can throw obvious but not happening trades involving names like M. Tkachuk, Q. Hughes or O’Connor where it definitely would make sense because of the player, age and/or contract or maybe even some trade package for a goalie like Knight, Askarov or Wallstedt but when you hear names like Fiala (does not add the necessary size or grit plus cap hit), Meier (huge QO - cap hit) etc., it is very troubling. You can forget about deals for a goaltender such as Gibson (declining) or Hellebuyck (29 years old) involving this pick. You want to trade the 2nd round pick for Fiala in a package, I could see that or a trade involving one of the forward prospects because of their volume for a veteran, I could see that. Although the team has tried some of these shortcuts to success moves (Palmieri aside, referring to Bennett, Johansson, Muller, Grabner, Subban, Gusev moves) in which they moved 2nd and 3rd round picks and have not worked, I can see moving a 2nd round pick here because of the youth on the roster, the state of the farm system and the making of the 2nd overall pick.
I do not hold myself out to be a hockey talent evaluator like some on here who do an excellent job evaluating the draft eligible prospects (Steven ToddIves, Jason MacIsaac, etc.) but I did scout for a professional organization in another sport and regardless of the sport, all drafts have a tiering system. This draft does have a top tier of two players in Wright and Slafkovsky. Yes, the Devils are weak at RD but Nemac and Jiricek are not on that level and Cooley is beneath these top 2. They do not have a player like Slafkovsky in this organization and the thought that they would move such a cost controlled asset is frightening. And the Devils should take Wright if Montreal takes Slafkovsky even though they have Hischier, Hughes and Mercer.
Finally as long as you have Ruff as the coach of this team, you just cannot reconcile that decision with any thought of moving the pick. Ruff is not going to be the coach of this team when it is ready to win - he was always thought of as a developmental coach for the young players and he has done that to some extent (Ty Smith aside). By keeping Ruff, the team is implicitly acknowledging that they are not ready to win which is okay because of the youth but then don’t contemplate moving the pick. Fitzgerald always said the team would tell him when the team is ready to win. I watched this season - did you see the team tell Fitzgerald or its fans that it is ready to win? To borrow a slogan from another team controlled by this ownership group, trust the process and the process is to make this selection. If they make such a trade involving the pick, there should be an autopsy done of this ownership/management team.