Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[devilsblood]

Pardavy (guy responsible for Slovak pp) is a moron. Slaf in front of the net? He should be on right circle or blue line, using his shot and passes.

Not for nothing but if he is on our #1 PP at some point in the near(and even not so near) future, I would think it would be in front of the net.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Omg. Omfg. Why he have subscribers and listeners still?

People are dumb, I guess.

The most susceptible of hockey fans are the people who follow analytics without watching too much actual hockey. A lot of these analytics guys will happily post something like "Brady Tkachuk is a 3rd liner" or "Shea Weber was an average defenseman at best" because they know it will create controversy and get them a ton of hits and citations. Then, the usual defense is: "this is science and mathematics -- if you don't believe it, you're a caveman!" even though the science and mathematics were completely made up by them. They tend to defend their weak models with counter-attacks (like any bad politician), and their followers who are also scared to look stupid fall in line and follow suit. They defend their opinions as facts with a cult-like obedience.

It's essentially a community of mostly snake-oil salesmen who make money by feeding off the most susceptible and gullible. Unfortunately, this bulls**t works -- John Chayka and Tom Rowe both got NHL GM jobs despite having the combined IQ of a watermelon. Bader is making a living off his nonsense, and is incessantly using his Twitter feed to plug for an NHL job. Fortunately, I think Bader's model is so piss-poor that he'll never get hired.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

That's not really true. Players use their size to establish puck protection and extended forechecking all the time. And for some players, that's either all they can do, or it's a large majority of their game, and what's what I'd consider true power forwards.



Wouldn't be surprised if he had Raymond unranked. He wasn't great from a perspective of someone who just stat watches.

So true power forward don’t have an use skill as well?
So he’s not a power forward because he has elite skill and Playmaking. Even though he regularly uses his size

 

[StevenToddIves]

Holy crap.

 

[Guadana]

People are dumb, I guess.

The most susceptible of hockey fans are the people who follow analytics without watching too much actual hockey. A lot of these analytics guys will happily post something like "Brady Tkachuk is a 3rd liner" or "Shea Weber was an average defenseman at best" because they know it will create controversy and get them a ton of hits and citations. Then, the usual defense is: "this is science and mathematics -- if you don't believe it, you're a caveman!" even though the science and mathematics were completely made up by them. They tend to defend their weak models with counter-attacks (like any bad politician), and their followers who are also scared to look stupid fall in line and follow suit. They defend their opinions as facts with a cult-like obedience.

It's essentially a community of mostly snake-oil salesmen who make money by feeding off the most susceptible and gullible. Unfortunately, this bulls**t works -- John Chayka and Tom Rowe both got NHL GM jobs despite having the combined IQ of a watermelon. Bader is making a living off his nonsense, and is incessantly using his Twitter feed to plug for an NHL job. Fortunately, I think Bader's model is so piss-poor that he'll never get hired.

Man you need to make a scouting job on twitter too. And writing on the regular personal blog. It’s unfair people doesn’t know much about you. It’s so sad that new russian factor did hurt only me) nhl teams sign and sign Russian players, but Guadana can’t find enough time to make his scouting hobby.

that was pretty fun to read my old posts where I did write that I like Raymond more than Lafreniere. And call Mercer as an option for 7th pick. Too bad we don’t have more first round picks this year. I like this generation. Like it more than 2021 and 2018. I like this discussions. This year discussions were going around the same players. Even last year discussions were more controversial.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Bader disliked Sanderson and went out of his way to let the world know it. He had Raymond ranked #6. He had Sanderson #13, one slot behind... Zion Nybeck, who maybe has an outside chance of playing pro hockey in North America.

Other highlights from 2020:
10 Stutzle
13 Pashin
15 Grans
18 Lundell
20 Quinn
22 Foerster
23 Coangelo
25 Johanneson
27 Ovchinnikov
30 Finley
32 Poirier
Unranked: Holloway
Unranked: Guhle
Unranked: Reichel
Unranked: Schneider
Unranked: Neighbors
Unranked: Grieg

The guy is an embarrassment.

That’s hilariously bad.
Just look at how well Stutzle, Lundell and Schneider have already done in the NHL.

I'm guessing his model is entirely performance based, and doesn't take into account situation.

It’s based solely on production. And size+age I believe. Doesn’t take into account anything else.
Ignores that every single prospect is a different player with a different skillset and situation.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Pardavy (guy responsible for Slovak pp) is a moron. Slaf in front of the net? He should be on right circle or blue line, using his shot and passes.

Ya it’s bad. While Slafkovsky makes a good net front guy with his size and skill, he is completely useless out front on their powerplay. He should be on the outside because he’s there most skilled player and they need to create good shooting opportunities and chances before they worry about who is out front. If Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt are running the powerplay, sure go ahead and put him out front.
Nemec should also be on the top pp. He’s clearly better at it than the other bum they got there now.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Man you need to make a scouting job on twitter too. And writing on the regular personal blog. It’s unfair people doesn’t know much about you. It’s so sad that new russian factor did hurt only me) nhl teams sign and sign Russian players, but Guadana can’t find enough time to make his scouting hobby.

that was pretty fun to read my old posts where I did write that I like Raymond more than Lafreniere. And call Mercer as an option for 7th pick. Too bad we don’t have more first round picks this year. I like this generation. Like it more than 2021 and 2018. I like this discussions. This year discussions were going around the same players. Even last year discussions were more controversial.

Well, the real fun of it for me is in having great discussions with great fans like yourself and the other HFBoards Devils draft people.

It's why I stay off the main draft boards for the most part. Too many mean people. It's exhausting.

My other favorite part of this is when under-rated players I spend a lot of time trumpeting prove me right. I'm thrilled when I see kids like Ethan Bear and Andrew Peeke and Brock Faber make it to the big show, and I'm especially happy when I see players I've hyped on my own team like Jesper Bratt and -- soon -- Arseni Gritsyuk.

I'd love to see your rankings of the prospects as well, since I think while I'm pretty good at processing information in context, I'd say you're better than me from a pure scouting angle. You pick up on certain nuances I sometimes overlook.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Not for nothing but if he is on our #1 PP at some point in the near(and even not so near) future, I would think it would be in front of the net.

But he’s useless there on their powerplay.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That’s hilariously bad.
Just look at how well Stutzle, Lundell and Schneider have already done in the NHL.


It’s based solely on production. And size+age I believe. Doesn’t take into account anything else.
Ignores that every single prospect is a different player with a different skillset and situation.

Grans over Schneider and Faber and Guhle. I mean, you have to be high, right?

Johannesson over Reichel and Holloway. I mean, it has to be heroin, right?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Grans over Schneider and Faber and Guhle. I mean, you have to be high, right?

Johannesson over Reichel and Holloway. I mean, it has to be heroin, right?

You’d think but no it’s just the model.
Someone should really get that going around twitter. Too many people take the stuff he posts seriously.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Not for nothing but if he is on our #1 PP at some point in the near(and even not so near) future, I would think it would be in front of the net.

Yup, they were just training him for that role for our future.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

So true power forward don’t have an use skill as well?
So he’s not a power forward because he has elite skill and Playmaking. Even though he regularly uses his size

It is a very fine line like I said earlier and when you put it like that, it would be wrong to say they don't have skill. However, I'd say they don't play a finesse style of game. They typically keep it simple. Try to keep possession, make the safe play back to their dman, go to the front of the net when they don't have the puck, drive to the net almost all the time when they do....stuff like that. Imo, this does not really describe Slaf. Also, I think you're overselling the "he uses his size" thing. I don't think he really has been, not anymore than any nhl player should already be doing anyways.

 

[Offseason Champs]

Well, the real fun of it for me is in having great discussions with great fans like yourself and the other HFBoards Devils draft people.

It's why I stay off the main draft boards for the most part. Too many mean people. It's exhausting.

My other favorite part of this is when under-rated players I spend a lot of time trumpeting prove me right. I'm thrilled when I see kids like Ethan Bear and Andrew Peeke and Brock Faber make it to the big show, and I'm especially happy when I see players I've hyped on my own team like Jesper Bratt and -- soon -- Arseni Gritsyuk.

I'd love to see your rankings of the prospects as well, since I think while I'm pretty good at processing information in context, I'd say you're better than me from a pure scouting angle. You pick up on certain nuances I sometimes overlook.

I will pump you up for a second and say your posts here are the reason I started paying attention to the draft and sought out more information on other sources about prospects. I do think that it's a shame you aren't known by more people out there because I think you have very reasonable takes and I like your style of building up players and highlighting their strengths versus harping on their weaknesses. It's way easier to be a glass half empty person and much harder to see silver linings especially about players deep down the draft boards.

Not to take away from anyone else who does really fantastic work here but don't sell yourself short is all I would wanna say. It does take a certain type of person to survive being "public" on social media like twitter because there are some really awful takes out there constantly on posts of very smart people. It's a nightmare. Maybe I don't blame you for wanting to stay away from that stuff. Keep it up, though!

 

[StevenToddIves]

I will pump you up for a second and say your posts here are the reason I started paying attention to the draft and sought out more information on other sources about prospects. I do think that it's a shame you aren't known by more people out there because I think you have very reasonable takes and I like your style of building up players and highlighting their strengths versus harping on their weaknesses. It's way easier to be a glass half empty person and much harder to see silver linings especially about players deep down the draft boards.

Not to take away from anyone else who does really fantastic work here but don't sell yourself short is all I would wanna say. It does take a certain type of person to survive being "public" on social media like twitter because there are some really awful takes out there constantly on posts of very smart people. It's a nightmare. Maybe I don't blame you for wanting to stay away from that stuff. Keep it up, though!

Thanks, this post means a lot to me. Made my day, really.

 

[MasterofGrond]

I love models that kick out the occasional weird result that may cause me to think about a player or a situation in ways I hadn't before. Maybe I look into and it turns out to be nonsense, but it's an exercise worth pursuing. If one's telling you everything you already know what's the point?

That said, if all a model does is give you wacky (or straight up bad) answers that's just as worthless. And in hockey, a sport where analytics are still developing rapidly, blindly trusting a model is as bad as blindly ignoring one.

 

[Eggtimer]

Couple examples of Slaf hitting , beig aggressive.



Crap, I can’t get the other video to post..

 

[glenwo2]

I think Mercer will end up on the wing anyway, just because he belongs in the top 6 and has shown chemistry with Bratt, Hughes, and Hischier at different points this season. Shifting him to wing makes more sense than putting him on the third line.

If Wright drops to 2 and Slafkovsky is available, I could see a scenario where we try to get assets out of Arizona to let them draft Wright, then take Slafkovsky. Or we could just take Wright and sort out our future ice time problems at a later date.

I think that's unlikely though. Montreal is probably going to take Wright, and if they don't, it will be because they took Slafkovsky.

The odds are low that we will be making a decision between Wright and Slafkovsky at 2, so essentially Montreal is making our pick for us.

Why would Arizona do any deal when they'll have their pick of either Wright or Slaf, though, based on who the Devils draft?

They could just say "Nah. you draft whomever and we'll take the other" and that's it.

 

[glenwo2]

Flyers fan reaction to the 2022 lottery. It starts at 4:30.

okay this is weird....

I only see the screenshot of the vid and that's it.

The only link is for "youtube" at the bottom right with that little box thing.

 

[glenwo2]

So Wright is going to be super pumped to throw away millions of $ and play 3rd fiddle?
So we’d rather roll out a bunch of midgets on the wings and screw being able to win board battles or screen a goalie or get rewind goals , but hey , we will have 3 awesome C’s until Wright demands a trade.
Then people sya “Well just use him on the wing”….. Ya ok, or how about we just draft the winger from the start that’s fills a much much bigger need and will make everyone in his line better?
I don’t understand peoples line of thought wanting to use a #2 pick overall as our 3C.

Because he'd be the better pick than the others.

And because we already have Hughes at the 1st Line and Nico at the 2nd.

I never understood why people view the 3rd line as some kind of DEMOTION. If anything, it puts a very talented player against the LESSER players of the opponents, thus giving Wright(for example) the advantage on every shift.


But going back to my point, if it was between him and Slaf (and both were available), of course I'd choose Slaf but if he's not there, Shane would be an outstanding consolation prize to have.

I know you and others are enamored with those two d-men (Jiricek and Nemec) but as with all d-men, there's always (unfortunately) a good chance they may not live up to the lofty expectations that are expected (that, and they could very well BUST) and we won't truly know this until 3-4 years down the road where we might lament not selecting a particular player in this draft (Slaf or Wright) when we had the chance to.

 

[Brodeur]

Why would Arizona do any deal when they'll have their pick of either Wright or Slaf, though, based on who the Devils draft?

They could just say "Nah. you draft whomever and we'll take the other" and that's it.

The only leverage is whether they have a gap between the two and there's the threat of another team moving ahead of them. But difficult to picture Montreal taking Cooley with the top pick.

Closest I can think of was when San Jose and Nashville flipped #2 and #3 at the 1998 Draft. It was Nashville's first draft and they wanted a "star" forward as the face of the franchise (unfortunately that was David Legwand). San Jose had drafted Patrick Marleau the previous year, so they wanted a cornerstone D (Brad Stuart was okay but not quite that).

Florida tried desperately to trade down a spot or two in 2003 since they had Nathan Horton on the top of their list. They managed to extract Mikael Samuelsson and a flip of later picks with the Penguins for #3. Never quite understood why Pittsburgh thought they needed to do the deal. They could have figured Florida wanted Horton at #1, Carolina would take Eric Staal at #2 (and had drafted Cam Ward in 2002), leaving them with Fleury at #3. But maybe they felt that Fleury would be more marketable as the #1 pick.

Vancouver offered to flip #5 for #6+ in 2017, but Vegas had intel that Vancouver wasn't going to take their guy (Cody Glass) so they didn't bother moving up. Boston offered #5 and #37 to Washington for #4 in 2006, but the Caps declined once Boston said they were targeting Nicklas Backstrom.

 

[Saugus]

Not for nothing but if he is on our #1 PP at some point in the near(and even not so near) future, I would think it would be in front of the net.

It would be fun to see a big guy like Slafkovsky setting up an immovable lunar eclipse in front of the opposing goalies. My question is though, does he have good hands in tight for tips and rebounds? We need guys who can score the garbage goals, can he be that guy?

Or is his shot the better asset, which would suggest that the better use for him on the PP is on the half boards or at the point?

Genuinely asking, I don't know enough about his game to know what his best usage would be on the PP.

Why would Arizona do any deal when they'll have their pick of either Wright or Slaf, though, based on who the Devils draft?

They could just say "Nah. you draft whomever and we'll take the other" and that's it.

Because they have a strong need for a franchise center and we don't. So in this (still highly unlikely) scenario, it might be worthwhile to them to guarantee that we won't take their guy by moving up to our slot.

 

[devilsblood]

It would be fun to see a big guy like Slafkovsky setting up an immovable lunar eclipse in front of the opposing goalies. My question is though, does he have good hands in tight for tips and rebounds? We need guys who can score the garbage goals, can he be that guy?

Or is his shot the better asset, which would suggest that the better use for him on the PP is on the half boards or at the point?

Genuinely asking, I don't know enough about his game to know what his best usage would be on the PP.

I don't know either, I'm just going off STI's scouting report and he thinks he does.

Now we do have to consider that our two best offensive players already occupy the halfboard role. While a 4th liner is our net front.

So Slaf could be good as a net front, and even better as a shooter, but the better fit for the team would be to have him be the net front.

Could Slaf be on the halfboard on the 2nd unit? Could he push Bratt to the 2nd unit? Those are options but if he has plus net front abilities, I think that would be the spot for him, especially in his early years.

 

[Eggtimer]

It would be fun to see a big guy like Slafkovsky setting up an immovable lunar eclipse in front of the opposing goalies. My question is though, does he have good hands in tight for tips and rebounds? We need guys who can score the garbage goals, can he be that guy?

Or is his shot the better asset, which would suggest that the better use for him on the PP is on the half boards or at the point?

Genuinely asking, I don't know enough about his game to know what his best usage would be on the PP.



Because they have a strong need for a franchise center and we don't. So in this (still highly unlikely) scenario, it might be worthwhile to them to guarantee that we won't take their guy by moving up to our slot.

I cannot come even close to pitting it as well as Mr.Ives does when explaining Slaf positive attributes and skills , but yes Slaf has soft hands and is very good in tight and in front of the net. If you watch his highlights from the Olympics , it shows a very nice goal that he roofs very in close to the net . Roofs it in a hurry and was a very nice goal. I thnk it was his first goal of the olympics? It was against the Fins, Openimg goal. Corrals a loose puck and quickly goes backhand to forehand and shelfs it.

 

[MWagg72]

From my limited viewing and from what I've been reading he has elite hands.