Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[Guttersniped]

FWIW Booth wasn't an overage pick, NCAA players were drafted a year later, for reasons that I can't even begin to imagine. That's why Parise went in 2003, Zajac in 2004, etc.

I imagine those comparisons are just the closest stat comps when adjusting for league but I don't know. I agree that Bader's tool has limited utility at the top of the draft.

Yeah, you’re right, I forgot the college eligibility thing hadn’t ended yet.

It’s definitely random comparisons based on “similar” production but Badar only uses production from one league. I don’t think the all those leagues compare that well across decades.

He says he used U20 League stats because those were his best. Slaf played 11 games in the U20 this season. You would base drafting this kid on his production in 11 games? Really? I would not.

It’s unfortunate that the U20 tourney was cancelled because Mitch Brown tracked all sorts of stats in those games and Slafkovsky was an absolute monster in those, he was all over the place and did everything but score.

The last part worried me but then he produced in the Olympics (which counts, to me at least, as much as 11 U20 games) and then in Liiga after he got promoted off the 4th line.

I can’t stress enough that Cooley has to be in consideration but the idea that only dumb size queens like Slafkovsky is from outer space.

Scouching, who tracks stats from multiple games from all the prospects on his master list, has him 4th and he loves waterbugs.

He’s only not 3rd because Scouching can’t quit Brad Lambert, who he has kept cemented at 2nd. Wright is 1st, Cooley is 3rd, and with Lambert that’s tier 1.

Tier 2 has Slafkovsky at 4th, then it’s Jiricek, Nemec, Savoie, Gleb Trikozov, and Kemell.

HockeyProspect.com’s weird fixation is Geekie so their list in March was: Wright, Geekie, Slafkovsky, Nemec, Cooley, Savoie and then Jiricek.

 

[Eggtimer]

You don't understand because you refuse to see the argument. To this point in their careers, Wright has been the better player. First Google shows Wright listed as 6'1" and 187 lbs. That's not small. Why is their an assumption that Wright won't be the better winger or that he would demand a trade? Who knows what will happen to the team within the next 3 years.

What is your reasoning for picking Slavofsky over Wright besides size?

Also, in what scenario are the Devils picking between the two?

Another edit.... Why can't Wright be better than Hischier ? Or even Hughes?

So in three years we are going to trade our franchise PPG 20 year old stud when his brother is about to join the team, and we just signed him for 8 years , or our C captian that we signed long term?
Wright is not going to be better than Hughes… come on now.
Slafkovsky is better than Wright at things we are severely lacking on the roster.

 

[Saugus]

If Wright falls you take him and roll Hughes hischier Wright down the middle and move Mercer to wing since Mercer looks comfortable and has experience at wing

I think Mercer will end up on the wing anyway, just because he belongs in the top 6 and has shown chemistry with Bratt, Hughes, and Hischier at different points this season. Shifting him to wing makes more sense than putting him on the third line.

If Wright drops to 2 and Slafkovsky is available, I could see a scenario where we try to get assets out of Arizona to let them draft Wright, then take Slafkovsky. Or we could just take Wright and sort out our future ice time problems at a later date.

I think that's unlikely though. Montreal is probably going to take Wright, and if they don't, it will be because they took Slafkovsky.

The odds are low that we will be making a decision between Wright and Slafkovsky at 2, so essentially Montreal is making our pick for us.

Slafkovsky is pretty much in the process of establishing himself fairly firmly as the consensus #2, and he's closed the gap significantly with Shane Wright for #1.

The McKenzie NHL scout poll -- universally considered the most accurate in predicting the actual draft -- has Slafkovsky at #2. I've had Slafkovsky at #2 for well over a month now. Others are sure to follow by the time the final rankings come out.

Speaking of McKenzie's poll, I'm curious to know if you think there is some possibility of the respondents in it "herding" toward a consensus as the draft gets closer. That is to say, their opinions about the relative rankings for the top players are not fully independent of each other, but rather some scouts change their answers over the course of the year leading up to the draft based on what they see as a developing consensus that they don't want to contradict.

You see this effect happen in political polling all the time: different pollsters sample the same race multiple times, and by the end of the election cycle they tend to cluster around the same projected margin, because they don't want to be caught out being farther off the final result than their competitors. This can lead to problems with the aggregate polling average, which is usually more accurate than any one poll, but not if there is herding happening.

I'm wondering if we might see a similar loss of information if scouts in McKenzie's poll herd toward consensus rankings of the top players in each draft, and the dissenting voices don't share those opinions. The one guy who voted for Makar as the #1 in that draft year's poll comes to mind as a counter-example that shows how avoiding herding can provide useful information.

 

[Diehard Devil]

This Nemec kid looks like the real deal. Might be hard to pass up on a top end RHD.

We could always find a bigger winger via FA or trade if we drafted him. A defense held down by Hughes and Nemec is certainly something Id sign up for in the future

Elite RHD are so hard to find. Dougie is also signed but someone coming up behind him as he ages is awesome IMO

 

[Diehard Devil]

Im just so stoked to be getting one of these kids - they all look so good. We really dont deserve this high of a pick because Ive read its a top-5 in this draft and we dont need centers

But ill take it! Building ourselves a Pittsburgh like dynasty. Definitely getting me the next gen NHL with all the boys in the organization, gonna have some fun with that for sure lol

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think Mercer will end up on the wing anyway, just because he belongs in the top 6 and has shown chemistry with Bratt, Hughes, and Hischier at different points this season. Shifting him to wing makes more sense than putting him on the third line.

If Wright drops to 2 and Slafkovsky is available, I could see a scenario where we try to get assets out of Arizona to let them draft Wright, then take Slafkovsky. Or we could just take Wright and sort out our future ice time problems at a later date.

I think that's unlikely though. Montreal is probably going to take Wright, and if they don't, it will be because they took Slafkovsky.

The odds are low that we will be making a decision between Wright and Slafkovsky at 2, so essentially Montreal is making our pick for us.



Speaking of McKenzie's poll, I'm curious to know if you think there is some possibility of the respondents in it "herding" toward a consensus as the draft gets closer. That is to say, their opinions about the relative rankings for the top players are not fully independent of each other, but rather some scouts change their answers over the course of the year leading up to the draft based on what they see as a developing consensus that they don't want to contradict.

You see this effect happen in political polling all the time: different pollsters sample the same race multiple times, and by the end of the election cycle they tend to cluster around the same projected margin, because they don't want to be caught out being farther off the final result than their competitors. This can lead to problems with the aggregate polling average, which is usually more accurate than any one poll, but not if there is herding happening.

I'm wondering if we might see a similar loss of information if scouts in McKenzie's poll herd toward consensus rankings of the top players in each draft, and the dissenting voices don't share those opinions. The one guy who voted for Makar as the #1 in that draft year's poll comes to mind as a counter-example that shows how avoiding herding can provide useful information.

There's definitely a bit of a herd mentality among certain draft writers, but there's also the opposite -- as some draft writers make extreme ranking decisions at the top in order to differentiate themselves.

For me, I try to avoid both of those bugaboos. My 1/2 right now is identical to the consensus with Wright/Slafkovsky. My 3 thru 6 is pretty close, as well. I'd say the one pick where I really differentiate from the consensus top 10 is with Alexander Perevalov at #8. In my own defense, I feel a lot of rankers don't have enough attention and/or respect for the MHL and (as my long-time readers are certainly aware of) I absolutely do.

Sometimes, the consensus follows me, and that lets me know I'm doing my job pretty well. I was the first guy I'm aware of to pump Jiri Kulich as a top 20 pick, and now a lot of people are doing it. Two months ago I was the only person on the planet saying Reid Schaefer was deserving of a 1st round pick, and now we're starting to see other people start to come around on him. I think this WC tournament might have some following my lead on Adam Sykora, as well.

Certain writers and scouting bureaus prefer certain types of players. You like big, strong guys? You have the CSS rankings. You like small, quick scorers? You have McKeen's prospects. Certain writers and bureaus pay more attention to certain regions. Steve Kournianos universally is the best at ranking players from the Russian leagues and the USHL. The Hockey Writers has been long-guilty of blatantly over-ranking players from Sweden, while the Hockey News (Ryan Kennedy) and Sportsnet perennially give a bump to CHL players.

@Guttersniped has (correctly, as usual) made fun of me for down-ranking offense-first defensemen who struggle in their own zone while up-ranking defense-first defensemen regardless of their offensive production. I guess we all have our preferences.

But to answer your question correctly, I'd say the hype machine has as much to do with anything as the actual rankings. No one would shut up about Slafkovsky during the Olympics because, quite simply, he was the best player there. No one is shutting up about him now because he's looking like a superstar in the WC. A few months back I'd say his consensus range was in the #5-#6 range, but now he's rocketing his way to a universal #2. However, is this hype, or simply a case of a player who was underutilized in his league (Liiga) and then blew up when given the opportunity he clearly deserved all along? I'd say it's the latter. Right now, if you're still ranking Slafkovsky #5 or #6, you're looking like a complete charlatan. Is this herd mentality, or just a lot of people learning the same truth in the same time span?

 

[xigon]

Flyers fan reaction to the 2022 lottery. It starts at 4:30.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Wow, this is indeed spectacular. I'm no draft expert, but I follow a lot. To know I would've had a better ranking success rate than someone with a big Twitter following, says a lot about his evaluation skills. My oh my.

He doesn’t have evaluation skills. I don’t think he even watches the prospects.

 

[Guttersniped]

Flyers fan reaction to the 2022 lottery. It starts at 4:30.

I love when people genuinely hate that we won a lottery spot and then are super relieved/think it’s a crushing loss that we didn’t get the 1OA. (When many of us are just fine with the 2OA and weren’t hoping for Wright in the first place.)

 

[Devs3cups]

I love when people genuinely hate that we won a lottery spot and then are super relieved/think it’s a crushing loss that we didn’t get the 1OA. (When many of us are just fine with the 2OA and weren’t hoping for Wright in the first place.)

Wright would be fine, but yeah, we all thought we were getting 6th. 2nd is a HUUUGGEEE win for us.

 

[Guttersniped]

He doesn’t have evaluation skills. I don’t think he even watches the prospects.

He has a NHLe that he sells the shit out of. People have been modeling NHLe (NHL equivalences) for prospects for what has to be about ~20 years.

It can be useful tool but you can’t strip it of any context and claim teams have to follow the results. If a team drafts a lot guys who rate poorly then I do think a team isn’t focusing enough on finding offensive production in the draft.

The system loves scoring wingers and 2nd PP QBs (who can easily end up AHL tweeners or playing in Europe) and is outright bad with defensemen, pretty bad with centers and bigger players who take longer to develop.

Sometimes teams are weird about not drafting very productive players who can drop in the draft and then produce a ton in the NHL, and they will pop in NHLe, but that’s not the only thing you’re looking for and a lot of the players that also pop don’t remotely make it.

 

[Brodeur]

Oooh, thanks for invoking me.

You're better off asking a brain damaged chimpanzee about NHL Draft prospects than Byron Bader. At least you could probably convince the chimpanzee to actually watch a hockey game, and you'd have better luck explaining to the chimpanzee what is actually going on.

We can say Bader's rankings are toilet paper, except it's unfair to toilet paper because toilet paper is actually useful.

Reminds me a little bit when my friend said that he didn't see much of a difference between Matt Barzal and Nick Merkley prior to the 2015 Draft. He had never seen either of them play, but they had similar hockeydb pages.

 

[King Lindros]

It is a small sample but after watching Slafkovsky at the WC I find it hard to imagine a scenario where he does not become a star. He is so good. It is so obvious. I would be very happy with him at #2

 

[Ripshot 43]

Flyers fan reaction to the 2022 lottery. It starts at 4:30.

My first reaction to his video is… why doesn’t he decorate his parents basement nicer?

 

[FooteBahl]

There's definitely a bit of a herd mentality among certain draft writers, but there's also the opposite -- as some draft writers make extreme ranking decisions at the top in order to differentiate themselves.

For me, I try to avoid both of those bugaboos. My 1/2 right now is identical to the consensus with Wright/Slafkovsky. My 3 thru 6 is pretty close, as well. I'd say the one pick where I really differentiate from the consensus top 10 is with Alexander Perevalov at #8. In my own defense, I feel a lot of rankers don't have enough attention and/or respect for the MHL and (as my long-time readers are certainly aware of) I absolutely do.

Sometimes, the consensus follows me, and that lets me know I'm doing my job pretty well. I was the first guy I'm aware of to pump Jiri Kulich as a top 20 pick, and now a lot of people are doing it. Two months ago I was the only person on the planet saying Reid Schaefer was deserving of a 1st round pick, and now we're starting to see other people start to come around on him. I think this WC tournament might have some following my lead on Adam Sykora, as well.

Certain writers and scouting bureaus prefer certain types of players. You like big, strong guys? You have the CSS rankings. You like small, quick scorers? You have McKeen's prospects. Certain writers and bureaus pay more attention to certain regions. Steve Kournianos universally is the best at ranking players from the Russian leagues and the USHL. The Hockey Writers has been long-guilty of blatantly over-ranking players from Sweden, while the Hockey News (Ryan Kennedy) and Sportsnet perennially give a bump to CHL players.

@Guttersniped has (correctly, as usual) made fun of me for down-ranking offense-first defensemen who struggle in their own zone while up-ranking defense-first defensemen regardless of their offensive production. I guess we all have our preferences.

But to answer your question correctly, I'd say the hype machine has as much to do with anything as the actual rankings. No one would shut up about Slafkovsky during the Olympics because, quite simply, he was the best player there. No one is shutting up about him now because he's looking like a superstar in the WC. A few months back I'd say his consensus range was in the #5-#6 range, but now he's rocketing his way to a universal #2. However, is this hype, or simply a case of a player who was underutilized in his league (Liiga) and then blew up when given the opportunity he clearly deserved all along? I'd say it's the latter. Right now, if you're still ranking Slafkovsky #5 or #6, you're looking like a complete charlatan. Is this herd mentality, or just a lot of people learning the same truth in the same time span?

Toot your own f***ing horn, brother! You deserve it!!

 

[Cheddabombs]

Flyers fan reaction to the 2022 lottery. It starts at 4:30.

I don't get why fans of other lottery teams are mad we won again. Like their team should've just tried winning it instead, it's so easy to do

 

[Japam]

Why is he even surprised the Devils won the lottery? Didn't he see the tweet from the Devils venmo'ing the NHL $20 to fix the results?

 

[devilsfan35]

This guy goes on to say how slafkovsky won’t be better than rantanen.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This guy goes on to say how slafkovsky won’t be better than rantanen.

Please don't bother anyone with Byron Bader graphics. The guy is far and away the dumbest guy in hockey media. Go look at his 2021 draft rankings. If he doesn't like a prospect, it usually means that prospect is a guy you should draft.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I'm not sure I understand the point of saying "he doesn't look like Rantanen" because....Rantanen didn't look like Rantanen, right? If he did, he could/would've been drafted second overall....

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm not sure I understand the point of saying "he doesn't look like Rantanen" because....Rantanen didn't look like Rantanen, right? If he did, he could/would've been drafted second overall....

Yeah, we need a way to block any Bader posts on the HFBoards Devils draft pages.

Unless I guess, someone is raising a pretty viable argument of "Bader really doesn't like Slafkovsky, so that's another good reason to take him at #2 overall".

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I don't mind the model at all, I think it leads to important questions such as "if you think this guy will be this good, why isn't he performing similarly to other guys who were that good?" There could be plenty of good answers to that question, but sometimes there aren't.

 

[devilsfan35]

Please don't bother anyone with Byron Bader graphics. The guy is far and away the dumbest guy in hockey media. Go look at his 2021 draft rankings. If he doesn't like a prospect, it usually means that prospect is a guy you should draft.

Lol good call just checked his rankings. He had edvinsson and mctavish outside the top 20. What a clown

 

[Nubmer6]

Lol good call just checked his rankings. He had edvinsson and mctavish outside the top 20. What a clown

I'm guessing his model is entirely performance based, and doesn't take into account situation.

 

[Guadana]

I love when people genuinely hate that we won a lottery spot and then are super relieved/think it’s a crushing loss that we didn’t get the 1OA. (When many of us are just fine with the 2OA and weren’t hoping for Wright in the first place.)

They doesn't know that devils fans can't stop talking about trading 2nd pick if Wright is available