Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[Devs3cups]

Bader-post trigger warning

@StevenToddIves Wheeerrreee areeeee youuuu?

After watching Slaf tapes and many games, as well as many many available videos, I'd really like him as the pick. These models scream "I don't watch the players".

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I don't think so playstyle wise.


A power forward generates plays using primarily their body/size. Slaf has not been doing that. If you have any other definition of a power forward..then we should just throw that term out.

I think he’s used his body a decent bit but yes the majority of it has been from his skill.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Bader-post trigger warning

Devils were a much better team when Steve Kelly was here

 

[Guttersniped]

You can never have enough centers, but how do we feel about Boqvist? .5 pts per season and he took off after the halfway point. There were a handful of games down the stretch where he was the Devils best player.

Having center depth is good, and centers are tradable assets, but I find it Ironic that most of you crap on Mikey/Zacha/Stillman but want to use a top 2 puck on a 3rd line C.

Stillman isn’t a center. I don’t understand what he has to do with any of this.

 

[Bcap88]

If Wright falls you take him and roll Hughes hischier Wright down the middle and move Mercer to wing since Mercer looks comfortable and has experience at wing

 

[Nubmer6]

A power forward generates plays using primarily their body/size. Slaf has not been doing that. If you have any other definition of a power forward..then we should just throw that term out.

What did you call, for example, Jagr? He generated offence with both.

 

[MartyOwns]

I don't think Montreal would be *stupid* to pass on Wright. I feel Slafkovsky has really closed the gap between 1/2 while really widening the gap between 2/3. I think it's close. I can't guarantee Shane Wright will be my #1 on my year-end rankings, and for me this is the closest it's been at the top since Svechnikov/Dahlin -- and if you recall, I ranked them as tied for the #1 overall slot (total wimp move, I know).

call it whatever you like, but come on. wright- suzuki down the middle for the next 10 years? actually, given what they did in the first round last year, the habs might not take wright if there’s some kind of pill pushing monkey molester on the board. otherwise, they’ll take wright; if they don’t, things get interesting.

 

[Rusty7550]

@StevenToddIves Wheeerrreee areeeee youuuu?

After watching Slaf tapes and many games, as well as many many available videos, I'd really like him as the pick. These models scream "I don't watch the players".

Honestly, I don't like these people who just cares about the stats, corsi and sh*t. Numbers don't tell the whole story. According to this dude, Nemec is better because he scored a lot of point in Slovak league. But me as a Slovak who watched both Slaf and Nemec XY times, Slaf almost always looked better. My advice for people like that is: Watch the games, not eliteprospects.

 

[RSeen]

Honestly, I don't like these people who just cares about the stats, corsi and sh*t. Numbers don't tell the whole story. According to this dude, Nemec is better because he scored a lot of point in Slovak league. But me as a Slovak who watched both Slaf and Nemec XY times, Slaf almost always looked better. My advice for people like that is: Watch the games, not eliteprospects.

Statistical models should be used as support not as the main basis for reasoning on a prospects projection. Especially with prospects who are developing and in different leagues where there are a lot of variables at play.

 

[Eggtimer]

If Wright falls you take him and roll Hughes hischier Wright down the middle and move Mercer to wing since Mercer looks comfortable and has experience at wing

So Wright is going to be super pumped to throw away millions of $ and play 3rd fiddle?
So we’d rather roll out a bunch of midgets on the wings and screw being able to win board battles or screen a goalie or get rewind goals , but hey , we will have 3 awesome C’s until Wright demands a trade.
Then people sya “Well just use him on the wing”….. Ya ok, or how about we just draft the winger from the start that’s fills a much much bigger need and will make everyone in his line better?
I don’t understand peoples line of thought wanting to use a #2 pick overall as our 3C.

 

[Devs3cups]

FWIW, every single one of my die hard Habs fan buddies is convinced they're going Wright.

 

[Goptor]

@StevenToddIves Wheeerrreee areeeee youuuu?

After watching Slaf tapes and many games, as well as many many available videos, I'd really like him as the pick. These models scream "I don't watch the players".

I don't even know what to think. Is he saying that Rantanen was a bad pick but the avalanche got lucky? Then he throws up Slafkovsky as a comparison and his chart is better than Rantanen's.

Why would you use a player comparison where your model failed in its prediction?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Bader-post trigger warning

Imbeciles are gonna imbecile.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Also I'm not saying Slaf is a soft player or anything like that, just that he has clearly shown he's much more than just being a big dude and has even shown elite puckhandling / playmaking abilities that you'd expect from a 5'10" player.

There is no 5'10 player or any other height player in the 2022 class with a better combination of Slafkovsky's playmaking/puckhandling. Not "for his size"... Slafkovsky is flat out elite in these abilities.

 

[Buggsy]

So Wright is going to be super pumped to throw away millions of $ and play 3rd fiddle?
So we’d rather roll out a bunch of midgets on the wings and screw being able to win board battles or screen a goalie or get rewind goals , but hey , we will have 3 awesome C’s until Wright demands a trade.
Then people sya “Well just use him on the wing”….. Ya ok, or how about we just draft the winger from the start that’s fills a much much bigger need and will make everyone in his line better?
I don’t understand peoples line of thought wanting to use a #2 pick overall as our 3C.

You don't understand because you refuse to see the argument. To this point in their careers, Wright has been the better player. First Google shows Wright listed as 6'1" and 187 lbs. That's not small. Why is their an assumption that Wright won't be the better winger or that he would demand a trade? Who knows what will happen to the team within the next 3 years.

What is your reasoning for picking Slavofsky over Wright besides size?

Also, in what scenario are the Devils picking between the two?

Another edit.... Why can't Wright be better than Hischier ? Or even Hughes?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Can we talk about Marco Kasper? That kid is tremendous. Right now I have him #13, but he's not out of the running for my final top 10 just yet.

 

[Guttersniped]

Bader-post trigger warning

What are these five comparisons? Well other than completely useless. A couple of guys who played in the WHL a long time ago (that includes the Svejkovsky). An undrafted 5’9”/175 C/RW from the USDP program, because sure, why not.

Booth, with his late birthday, had two years of college when he was drafted in the 2nd Rd as an overager in 2004.


His model didn’t like Ratanen, and will point out again that Slafkovsky’s D-0 year is the equivalent of Ratanen’s D1 year.

He’s not Ratanen, he’s a different player. But his model didn’t like Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, etc either. Not everyone develops the same way.

It’s an interesting tool but the moment he acts like the model is something that a club can’t go against if it’s somewhat unenthusiastic about an individual player they scouted a ton… c’mon now.

 

[Devs3cups]

What are these five comparisons? Well other than completely useless. A couple of guys who played in the WHL a long time ago (that includes the Svejkovsky). An undrafted 5’9”/175 C/RW from the USDP program, because sure, why not.

Booth, with his late birthday, had two years of college when he was drafted in the 2nd Rd as an overager in 2004.


His model didn’t like Ratanen, and will point out again that Slafkovsky’s D-0 year is the equivalent of Ratanen’s D1 year.

He’s not Ratanen, he’s a different player. His model didn’t like Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, etc either

View attachment 548426

It’s an interesting tool but the moment he acts like the model is something that a club can’t go against if it’s somewhat unenthusiastic about an individual player they scouted a ton… c’mon now.

View attachment 548428View attachment 548427
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Wow, these are telling lol

 

[StevenToddIves]

@StevenToddIves Wheeerrreee areeeee youuuu?

After watching Slaf tapes and many games, as well as many many available videos, I'd really like him as the pick. These models scream "I don't watch the players".

Oooh, thanks for invoking me.

You're better off asking a brain damaged chimpanzee about NHL Draft prospects than Byron Bader. At least you could probably convince the chimpanzee to actually watch a hockey game, and you'd have better luck explaining to the chimpanzee what is actually going on.

We can say Bader's rankings are toilet paper, except it's unfair to toilet paper because toilet paper is actually useful. Here are some highlights from last year:

6 Owen Power
7 Matt Beniers
12 Olen Zellweger
13 Sasha Pastujov
14 Ayrton Martino
17 Red Savage
18 Oskar Olausson
19 Sean Behrens
22 Mason McTavish
28 Simon Edvinsson
32 Connor Roulette
Unranked: Isak Rosen
Unranked: Brennan Othmann
Unranked: Wyatt Johnston
Unranked: Carson Lambos
Unranked: Scott Morrow
Unranked: Aatu Raty

In a 2021 redraft, Bader would have zero of the top three players (he had Luke Hughes #5) and only one of the top 5 players (Hughes). He's missing two more of the top 10 in Edvinsson and McTavish by about 20 picks each.

To give you an idea of how hard it is to miss this badly, if you literally gave a monkey a photo of the three top consensus picks for the top 10 picks, the monkey would do significantly better. But again, I would not call Bader a monkey, as this would represent a grave insult to all monkeykind. A monkey would not rank Martino, Savage and Olausson over Mason McTavish, after all.

 

[Triumph]

What are these five comparisons? Well other than completely useless. A couple of guys who played in the WHL a long time ago (that includes the Svejkovsky). An undrafted 5’9”/175 C/RW from the USDP program, because sure, why not.

Booth, with his late birthday, had two years of college when he was drafted in the 2nd Rd as an overager in 2004.


His model didn’t like Ratanen, and will point out again that Slafkovsky’s D-0 year is the equivalent of Ratanen’s D1 year.

He’s not Ratanen, he’s a different player. But his model didn’t like Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, etc either. Not everyone develops the same way.


It’s an interesting tool but the moment he acts like the model is something that a club can’t go against if it’s somewhat unenthusiastic about an individual player they scouted a ton… c’mon now

FWIW Booth wasn't an overage pick, NCAA players were drafted a year later, for reasons that I can't even begin to imagine. That's why Parise went in 2003, Zajac in 2004, etc.

I imagine those comparisons are just the closest stat comps when adjusting for league but I don't know. I agree that Bader's tool has limited utility at the top of the draft.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You don't understand because you refuse to see the argument. To this point in their careers, Wright has been the better player. First Google shows Wright listed as 6'1" and 187 lbs. That's not small. Why is their an assumption that Wright won't be the better winger or that he would demand a trade? Who knows what will happen to the team within the next 3 years.

What is your reasoning for picking Slavofsky over Wright besides size?

Also, in what scenario are the Devils picking between the two?

Another edit.... Why can't Wright be better than Hischier ? Or even Hughes?

Wright can be as good as Hischier, and he's got a better shot so he could score more. But Wright cannot be as good as Hughes (in the vacuum where neither suffer major injury). Hughes is the most talented #1 overall pick between Matthews and Bedard, so I think we can say that, talent-wise anyway, Jack Hughes is borderline-generational.

 

[Devs3cups]

Oooh, thanks for invoking me.

You're better off asking a brain damaged chimpanzee about NHL Draft prospects than Byron Bader. At least you could probably convince the chimpanzee to actually watch a hockey game, and you'd have better luck explaining to the chimpanzee what is actually going on.

We can say Bader's rankings are toilet paper, except it's unfair to toilet paper because toilet paper is actually useful. Here are some highlights from last year:

6 Owen Power
7 Matt Beniers
12 Olen Zellweger
13 Sasha Pastujov
14 Ayrton Martino
17 Red Savage
18 Oskar Olausson
19 Sean Behrens
22 Mason McTavish
28 Simon Edvinsson
32 Connor Roulette
Unranked: Isak Rosen
Unranked: Brennan Othmann
Unranked: Wyatt Johnston
Unranked: Carson Lambos
Unranked: Scott Morrow
Unranked: Aatu Raty

In a 2021 redraft, Bader would have zero of the top three players (he had Luke Hughes #5) and only one of the top 5 players (Hughes). He's missing two more of the top 10 in Edvinsson and McTavish by about 20 picks each.

To give you an idea of how hard it is to miss this badly, if you literally gave a monkey a photo of the three top consensus picks for the top 10 picks, the monkey would do significantly better. But again, I would not call Bader a monkey, as this would represent a grave insult to all monkeykind. A monkey would not rank Martino, Savage and Olausson over Mason McTavish, after all.

Wow, this is indeed spectacular. I'm no draft expert, but I follow a lot. To know I would've had a better ranking success rate than someone with a big Twitter following, says a lot about his evaluation skills. My oh my.

 

[hobgoblin933]

I was dubious about Slafkovsky because I didn't know much about him but reading this thread has softened me on the idea. It sucks there's not a consensus #2 in this draft, but I trust TF's judgement.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Wow, this is indeed spectacular. I'm no draft expert, but I follow a lot. To know I would've had a better ranking success rate than someone with a big Twitter following, says a lot about his evaluation skills. My oh my.

Honestly, if you put together a draft ranking simply on reading a few scouting reports and the HFBoards Devils draft threads, you would do better than Bader, I guarantee it. I mean, a 2021 re-draft would very likely go:

1 Power
2 Hughes
3 Beniers
4 McTavish
5 Edvinsson

Bader had them at #6, #5, #7, #22, #28. You just can't do that badly without being an utter imbecile. So, it's safe to say that the fact he doesn't like Slafkovsky is yet another great reason to take Slafkovsky at #2.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I was dubious about Slafkovsky because I didn't know much about him but reading this thread has softened me on the idea. It sucks there's not a consensus #2 in this draft, but I trust TF's judgement.

Slafkovsky is pretty much in the process of establishing himself fairly firmly as the consensus #2, and he's closed the gap significantly with Shane Wright for #1.

The McKenzie NHL scout poll -- universally considered the most accurate in predicting the actual draft -- has Slafkovsky at #2. I've had Slafkovsky at #2 for well over a month now. Others are sure to follow by the time the final rankings come out.