Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[Eggtimer]

"Slafkovsky is the BPA at #2 overall." -- resident draft guru

This makes me feel 100 times better. If he is BPA at 2 plus fills a massive need then it should be a no brainer. Yes it could end up beig Jiricek is the better player but if you see Slaf as the BPA plus habe a massive need for him , you cannot torture yourself if in 5 years another olayer ends up better than who you took at #2.

 

[beekay414]

I believe that they sometimes ignore BPA in top 10 of the draft and IMO it's a mistake.

And sometimes it's not. That's the point. In that very same draft you referenced, If the Red Wings had drafted by BPA, they don't have a bonafide #1 dman in Seider. Instead they have the flashy centerman in Zegras (you're supposed BPA) while still having a massive need on the blue line.

My point is BPA isn't something that's clear cut and it's 100% factored into organizational fit (and that doesn't always mean NEED). You even hint at it with your 4th point (interviewing a player and drafting based on his personality is indeed drafting based on being an organizational fit).

In a way, we're both right and in a way, we're both wrong. That's the nature of professional sports drafts in general.

 

[Eggtimer]

I don’t get how people thunk Slafkovsky is going to bust but they assume that if the Habs pass on Wrifht that they for sure take Slafkovsky instead?

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

And sometimes it's not. That's the point. In that very same draft you referenced, If the Red Wings had drafted by BPA, they don't have a bonafide #1 dman in Seider. Instead they have the flashy centerman in Zegras (you're supposed BPA) while still having a massive need on the blue line.

My point is BPA isn't something that's clear cut and it's 100% factored into organizational fit (and that doesn't always mean NEED). You even hint at it with your 4th point (interviewing a player and drafting based on his personality is indeed drafting based on being an organizational fit).

In a way, we're both right and in a way, we're both wrong. That's the nature of professional sports drafts in general.

As amazing as Yzerman is, he also took Brett Connolly and Tony DeAngelo in his drafts as well in Tampa Bay. He's clearly a home run hitter when it comes to draft with a scattered record in the first round. He's made his hey in the second and third rounds. But yes, Seider was a phenomenal pick, I'm just not sure how if Detroit makes that pick if they have someone else besides Yzerman at the helm.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Cooley is 5'10" I would hope he'd be a better skater than a 6'4" forward. We've already gone over why comparing production across youth leagues doesn't compare to players that play in men's leagues and it's not like Cooley tore up the USHL like some of his USNTDP predecessors did.

Slaf is a damn good skater for someone his size. He has powerful strides and can play at multiple tempos. He'll have no problem skating with Jack for the same reasons Dawson Mercer has no problem skating with him.

I just don't see the appeal of Cooley over a unicorn like Slafkovsky. You're not drafting someone for what their production was at 17/18 either. You're drafting them for what they're going to do in the pros and Slafkovsky's game translates no matter how you wanna break it down.

Cooley is a jack-of-all-trades, master of none type for me. He's a fine pick and will be a fine player but I have absolutely no idea where this idea that he's BPA comes from. I've said it, what feels like a million times, the difference between this forward group is razor thin. You could make an argument for any one of Slafkovsky, Nazar, Savoie or Cooley as the #2 forward. This is why it was brought up that you take organizational fit into account when making a final decision. The only way you don't is if someone distances themselves from the pack and, if any of the forwards are likely to do that, it's going to be Slafkovsky. I think people need to brace for the fact that he's going to be our pick.

Cooley is an elite skater and playmaker with a wickedly good set of hands. He's a high-IQ player with a very good compete level and more rounded game than most forwards of his finesse-type game. Cooley is an outstanding prospect, who I would liken to a sort of Mat Barzal-type, though slightly less dynamic.

But before asking if he is the best option at #2 overall, we need to ask a more important question of if he was the best forward on the US-NTDP this year? Isaac Howard was the leading scorer, and Frank Nazar finished 5 points behind Cooley in 3rd, but with a more complete game than Cooley and with a more versatile role. McGroarty only finished 6 points behind Cooley and usually handled the lion's share of defensive zone/situation duties while Cooley was utilized in a more offensive capacity.

It's close between those guys. But anyone who says Cooley is the BPA at #2 overall is going by pure statistical/analytic measures and hasn't watched enough of the prospects in my opinion. If we factor in scouting and the ever-elusive *upside*, I'd say Slafkovsky has to be considered the #2 forward for the 2022 draft. Have we ever seen a 6'4 F with Slafkovsky's combination of power/hockey IQ/passing/playmaking ability? I'm not sure.

Ultimately, I love the idea of Cooley in the top 7, but certainly not in the top 2. But if I'm Montreal, I haven't yet ruled out Slafkovsky at #1.

 

[Eggtimer]

I don’t get how people thunk Slafkovsky is going to bust but they assume that if the Habs pass on Wrifht that they for sure take Slafkovsky instead? So the Habs pass on a franchise C but then go with a “risky” winger instead ? Even if they have massive needs at both C and wing?Yet Slaf is not a good choice for us at 2 ? I dont get it

 

[Devs3cups]

Cooley is an elite skater and playmaker with a wickedly good set of hands. He's a high-IQ player with a very good compete level and more rounded game than most forwards of his finesse-type game. Cooley is an outstanding prospect, who I would liken to a sort of Mat Barzal-type, though slightly less dynamic.

But before asking if he is the best option at #2 overall, we need to ask a more important question of if he was the best forward on the US-NTDP this year? Isaac Howard was the leading scorer, and Frank Nazar finished 5 points behind Cooley in 3rd, but with a more complete game than Cooley and with a more versatile role. McGroarty only finished 6 points behind Cooley and usually handled the lion's share of defensive zone/situation duties while Cooley was utilized in a more offensive capacity.

It's close between those guys. But anyone who says Cooley is the BPA at #2 overall is going by pure statistical/analytic measures and hasn't watched enough of the prospects in my opinion. If we factor in scouting and the ever-elusive *upside*, I'd say Slafkovsky has to be considered the #2 forward for the 2022 draft. Have we ever seen a 6'4 F with Slafkovsky's combination of power/hockey IQ/passing/playmaking ability? I'm not sure.

Ultimately, I love the idea of Cooley in the top 7, but certainly not in the top 2. But if I'm Montreal, I haven't yet ruled out Slafkovsky at #1.

Don't know if you've seen this tweet from today, but it's really interesting.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

 

[Devs3cups]

 

[hidek91]

explains the "former" part of his the "former NHL scout" description

 

[Devs3cups]

explains the "former" part of his the "former NHL scout" description

That was a horrible take, but he probably still has relevant info lol.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I don’t get how people thunk Slafkovsky is going to bust but they assume that if the Habs pass on Wrifht that they for sure take Slafkovsky instead?

Most people who have actually watched lots of Slafkovsky don’t think he is going to bust. It’s mostly just people who are looking at his LIIGA production or people who assume he’s just ranked this high because of his size.

If Montreal doesn’t take Wright it will almost certainly be to take Slafkovsky. There’s a small chance it’s Cooley but would most likely be Slafkovsky because of his rare/unique skillset and dominant play at the mens international level.

I believe the habs GM actually talked about Wright and Slafkovsky as being the guys at the top of the draft a bit ago.

Matthews
Laine
McLeod
PL Dubois

Honestly probabky how it should’ve went.
McLeod probably goes 2nd in a redraft

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

explains the "former" part of his the "former NHL scout" description

That's Conte on a burner

 

[Eggtimer]

explains the "former" part of his the "former NHL scout" description

Oh god that didn’t age well at all . If he says “ I think Slafkivsky reminds me a lot of M McLeod … I will have to rethink my pick

I am more interested in discussing our pick
than the Boston Carolina game 7 . I am going to go crazy between now and the draft wondering what the Devils will do and what I think is the best thing to do

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Oh god that didn’t age well at all . If he says “ I think Slafkivsky reminds me a lot of M McLeod … I will have to rethink my pick

I am more interested in discussing our pick
than the Boston Carolina game 7 . I am going to go crazy between now and the draft wondering what the Devils will do and what I think is the best thing to do

The most likely think they’ll do is draft Slafkovsky. It’s arguable how much more likely it is they take him but he’s certainly the favourite.
And IMO that’s the best thing the Devils could do.

 

[Eggtimer]

What sucks is for eternity I will wrongly be comparing whoever we take to whoever we didn’t. I guess that’s what a lot of people do and this is just the first time for a long time where we have a very important choice to make and there is no clear cut answer. Jack , Nico , were to me no brainers and the correct choices . No way anyone would have taken Makar instead of who we took given what was known at that time. All the picks at the top of the draft we had I don’t think are as close( with how close their projections are ) to this draft. Also,the importance of pick #2 has a lot of potential to have a big effect in your team‘s future. Not so much as other drafts as this one is not really full of franchise cornerstone elite prospects ,but still could play a big part of the the teams future.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Don't know if you've seen this tweet from today, but it's really interesting.

The tweet is kind of silly. Why would Hughes not scout the likely #2 pick in a draft they pick #1 in? I think McCagg is just trying to advance his own narrative.

I mean, if I'm the Devils, I use any opportunity to scout everyone in the top 10 right now, even though they're not picking 9 of them.

 

[StevenToddIves]

What sucks is for eternity I will wrongly be comparing whoever we take to whoever we didn’t. I guess that’s what a lot of people do and this is just the first time for a long time where we have a very important choice to make and there is no clear cut answer. Jack , Nico , were to me no brainers and the correct choices . No way anyone would have taken Makar instead of who we took given what was known at that time. All the picks at the top of the draft we had I don’t think are as close( with how close their projections are ) to this draft. Also,the importance of pick #2 has a lot of potential to have a big effect in your team‘s future. Not so much as other drafts as this one is not really full of franchise cornerstone elite prospects ,but still could play a big part of the the teams future.

The decision isn't painful as you think. It's more: do the Devils take the best F in Slafkovsky or the best D in Jiricek or Nemec?

It becomes more controversial if the Devils take one of the RD, since whomever is picked first of Jiricek or Nemec is always going to be compared to the other. Fortunately, they're stylistically diverse enough that you can justify the pick with "we wanted this type of defenseman".

 

[My3Sons]

If Columbus offered 6 and 12 for 2, would you do it?

Obviously there's a real shot that Nemec, Jiricek, Slaf are gone by pick 6, so you're taking a pretty sizeable risk by moving down to 6 (I think 5 would be a no brainer), but one could also still be there.

Is the risk of losing one of them and "settling" from someone like Kemell or Savoie worth getting pick 12 ? More or less just curious what people think. I'm assuming it will mostly be no's, but I do believe that its an interest proposition

It depends upon your view of The depth of talent. I doubt any of Jiricek or Nemec fall to 6. It sounds like Wright Slaf Cooley Jiricek Nemec in whatever order is the top five. Six seems like a drop off? Maybe you get a GAUTHIER at 6 and a Geekie at 12? Or would you just rather have your guy at 2? Of course who knows how the scouts view it or what the interviews will reveal.

 

[Eggtimer]

The decision isn't painful as you think. It's more: do the Devils take the best F in Slafkovsky or the best D in Jiricek or Nemec?

It becomes more controversial if the Devils take one of the RD, since whomever is picked first of Jiricek or Nemec is always going to be compared to the other. Fortunately, they're stylistically diverse enough that you can justify the pick with "we wanted this type of defenseman".

True.

 

[My3Sons]

Slightly worse than Nico and RNH. You'd have to go back to Rick Nash.

so will that make him a 4C?

 

[Eggtimer]

It depends upon your view of The depth of talent. I doubt any of Jiricek or Nemec fall to 6. It sounds like Wright Slaf Cooley Jiricek Nemec in whatever order is the top five. Six seems like a drop off? Maybe you get a GAUTHIER at 6 and a Geekie at 12? Or would you just rather have your guy at 2? Of course who knows how the scouts view it or what the interviews will reveal.

That’s a situation where you might kick yourself for years after if you pass on a stud that was there at 2. But who knows, maybe a guy at 6 or even 12 ends up better. unlikely but possible

 

[beekay414]

It depends upon your view of The depth of talent. I doubt any of Jiricek or Nemec fall to 6. It sounds like Wright Slaf Cooley Jiricek Nemec in whatever order is the top five. Six seems like a drop off? Maybe you get a GAUTHIER at 6 and a Geekie at 12? Or would you just rather have your guy at 2? Of course who knows how the scouts view it or what the interviews will reveal.

Personally feel like 8 is the drop off.

Wright, Slafkovsky, Jiricek, Nemec, Nazar, Cooley, Savoie is my deadset top 7. After that, it gets muddied.

 

[Forge]

Don't know if you've seen this tweet from today, but it's really interesting.

Who is this guy? I saw that he also said that no scouts he talked to had Savoie with a top 15 grade, meanwhile he's still getting top 5 votes from Bobby Mac's flash poll and was #4 I think in the mid year rankings?

 

[Captain3rdLine]

It depends upon your view of The depth of talent. I doubt any of Jiricek or Nemec fall to 6. It sounds like Wright Slaf Cooley Jiricek Nemec in whatever order is the top five. Six seems like a drop off? Maybe you get a GAUTHIER at 6 and a Geekie at 12? Or would you just rather have your guy at 2? Of course who knows how the scouts view it or what the interviews will reveal.

Personally feel like 8 is the drop off.

Wright, Slafkovsky, Jiricek, Nemec, Nazar, Cooley, Savoie is my deadset top 7. After that, it gets muddied.

Kemell is ranked higher than Jiricek though and I wouldn’t be even slightly suprised if he dropped to 6. I wouldn’t be suprised if Nemec did either but I think it’s less likely.