Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[Hollywood Nosebleed]

I like your post a lot, I really do. I read most all of them. I find myself in total agreement on most of the philosophical points you make, for instance your comments on Dmen just a little while ago... I especially enjoy the light hearted post like this one.

But if you allow to honest for a moment...

Your post are almost 100% positive on everything.. @My3Sons has a similar outlook and approach to things...I can't speak for anyone else but for me, sometimes the positivity while we are mired in waist deep shit is irritating.

It's not just you and its nothing personal of course...it just sometimes the positivity gets to the point of absurdity.

I mean it's a decade now of losing...8 years of high picks...years of being told we have one of best prospect pools in the league and years of "the turn around being right around the corner"...and every off season there is a simple solution that will make everything better....Nero couldn't even be this blase.

Anyway I think that's why some people get irritable. You write fun to read stuff but I don't think there is anything wrong with calling a shitty situation or player what it is.

I get where you're coming from, but that's how bad of shape we were in. We had a top 3 goalie in Schneider propping up a bottom 3-5 team, and next to no prospects. Finally we start drafting high, but the little talent we had got older. Greene went from a shutdown D to Mid to Bottom babysitter pretty quick. Zajac was great at shutting down top lines, so our young guys like Nico and Bratt could excel with Hall. Palms was great, but a bad fit with our young talent and has fallen off a lot. Our old vets that you love were good, but propped up by a goalie, and coexisted with our young talent so everyone could excel. Now we're asking Nico to be a top line center and do Zajac's job while carrying shit wings half the time. None of our vets are our best players outside of Hamilton (injured), and next would be Severson. Our best players are 23, 21, 20, 24, 23, 28 (Injured Hamilton), 27 (Severson), and 25 (Jonas). We are basically the youngest team in the league and rely on them.

 

[Bleedred]

Remembering when Fraser got his deal. Respect.



Fraser signed on Dec 18th 2014 and DeBoer was memorably fired on Dec 26th. (Happy Boxing Day Pete!)

That season has what must be the greatest coach photo on Hockey-Reference (I know I’ve posted this before but it still makes me laugh.)

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I’m skeptical that’s specifically our actual bench in Prudential Center but it’s a definitely a bench.

N. Bench is actually my favorite head coach’s name ever.

It’s actually listed as “N. Bench” somewhere on hockey reference, but here it’s listed as NJD Bench.

I’ve never heard that staff referred to as either the N. Bench, nor the NJD Bench outside of the hockey reference website.

I would die of laughter if I could once in my life here it out loud from someone in the media. Maybe when talking about Scott Stevens or Adam Oates (or Lou) past NHL coaching experience.

“ Adam Oates was previously the head coach of the Washington Capitals for two seasons from 2012 until 2014, before briefly spending 46 games as a part of N(JD) Bench in the 2014-2015 season”.

“Scott Stevens served as an assistant coach with the Minnesota Wild for one season in 2016-2017. As well as with the New Jersey Devils for two seasons in between 2012 and 2014, before briefly returning as part of the short lived N(JD) Bench in 2014-2015”.

“Lou Lamoriello is no stranger to the NHL head coaching position either. Serving two different stints as the New Jersey Devils head coach for over half a season in 2005-2006 and then again for several games and two playoff rounds in 2006-2007, before making a very brief return behind the bench in 2014-2015 as a member of the N(JD) Bench”.

I would laugh for a month straight just to hear this somewhere. Even if it were the hockey guy on YouTube. That would be perfect so I could compulsively play it back as much as I want.

There’s no way I could say any of that with a straight face. I’d be giggling like a little child the whole time going over the N(JD) Bench’s resume.

And seeing their headshots as players, members of their separate coaching staffs and then the picture of that bench would really just be absolutely to die for. I would hurt for the longest time laughing over it.

 

[LeedsMonster]

But we have so much talent and one of the deepest prospect pools...how could this be?

The narrative is bullshit. All of it.

Much like 90% of your posts. Time to retire.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Not that I disagree, but it has to be a factor. Even if it will never be admitted. These guys must be thinking "If we pick Wright and he busts, we can always say he was the consensus number 1. If we don't and the player we do pick busts, or isn't as good as Wright, we are screwed."

Is this an actual thing or just what you guys think happens? If I was an owner, I wouldn't give a shit who was ranked where, you failed your job.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

i'd rather someone take extremes on projecting a player and be totally wrong, than the opposite (oh, shane wright seems good, but could be bad, so.... idk)

the whole point of scouting isn't to be right 100% of the time anyway - it's a continual study of seeing where you might've went wrong, so you can figure out how to be better in the future. the best scouts will acknowledge their blunders, which STI has

I don't really agree. Especially when it comes to consensus #1 overall ranked players. Like you said, scouting is not 100% and I could be wrong in a few years but I was not impressed with Power and did not think he'd be the best player of that draft, and I feel the same way with Wright.

Also while I didn't exactly rank Raymond #1 in 2020 (at least I don't think I did), I hyped him up like crazy and was just w/e about Laf, not because I didn't think he was out of reach but just cuz I loved Raymond's potential. Will have to see how everything plays out.

Again not to rag on steve too much but he did the same thing in 2017, sticking with the long time consensus #1 ranked guy.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I don't really agree. Especially when it comes to consensus #1 overall ranked players. Like you said, scouting is not 100% and I could be wrong in a few years but I was not impressed with Power and did not think he'd be the best player of that draft, and I feel the same way with Wright.

Also while I didn't exactly rank Raymond #1 in 2020 (at least I don't think I did), I hyped him up like crazy and was just w/e about Laf, not because I didn't think he was out of reach but just cuz I loved Raymond's potential. Will have to see how everything plays out.

Again not to rag on steve too much but he did the same thing in 2017, sticking with the long time consensus #1 ranked guy.

The number 1 pick doesn’t have to be the best player in the draft to be a good pick. Odds are unless it’s Connor Mcdavid they won’t be. As long as they are a top player who you can build around it’s a solid pick.

Right now Power looks really good. He’s very likely gonna be a minute eating first pair defensmen and If I was choosing first overall right now I would absolutely still take him first. That doesn’t mean a few of the guys that went after him couldn’t be better than him but he’s the safest bet and has very good potential. He was the right choice.

I don’t get why people act like the number 1 pick has to be the best pick in the draft for it to be the right pick or a good pick.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

The number 1 pick doesn’t have to be the best player in the draft to be a good pick. Odds are unless it’s Connor Mcdavid they won’t be. As long as they are a top player who you can build around it’s a solid pick.

Right now Power looks really good. He’s very likely gonna be a minute eating first pair defensmen and If I was choosing first overall right now I would absolutely still take him first. That doesn’t mean a few of the guys that went after him couldn’t be better than him but he’s the safest bet and has very good potential. He was the right choice.

I don’t get why people act like the number 1 pick has to be the best pick in the draft for it to be the right pick or a good pick.

That wasn't my point. My point was to further emphasize how steve overhyped prospects, especially with #1 overall ranked players. And your goal is to get the best player out of the 1st pick and you try to evaluate who that may be. Again, It's not about being the "right pick", it's literally about who you think is the best player....why would you have ranks then, I don't get your post now that I think about it.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The number 1 pick doesn’t have to be the best player in the draft to be a good pick. Odds are unless it’s Connor Mcdavid they won’t be. As long as they are a top player who you can build around it’s a solid pick.

Right now Power looks really good. He’s very likely gonna be a minute eating first pair defensmen and If I was choosing first overall right now I would absolutely still take him first. That doesn’t mean a few of the guys that went after him couldn’t be better than him but he’s the safest bet and has very good potential. He was the right choice.

I don’t get why people act like the number 1 pick has to be the best pick in the draft for it to be the right pick or a good pick.

Lol what? You don't draft based on safety ever. If we did, Nolan Patrick and Kappo Kakko would be Devils instead of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. You draft on long term ceiling + the best player at the time.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Lol what? You don't draft based on safety ever. If we did, Nolan Patrick and Kappo Kakko would be Devils instead of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. You draft on long term ceiling + the best player at the time.

When did I say you just draft based on safety? Please enlighten me. LOL you need to stop putting h words in my mouth.

Safety is certainly a factor though. If two players have a similar ceiling but one player is safer you go with the safer pick. It’s also about projecting how likely they are to get to that ceiling.
One player may have a higher ceiling but could also be much less likely to reach that ceiling.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Is this an actual thing or just what you guys think happens? If I was an owner, I wouldn't give a shit who was ranked where, you failed your job.

Maybe not, but fans care, and that means a lot in a place like Montreal. Fans actually have the power to run people out of town there.

 

[devilsblood]

The number 1 pick doesn’t have to be the best player in the draft to be a good pick. Odds are unless it’s Connor Mcdavid they won’t be. As long as they are a top player who you can build around it’s a solid pick.

Right now Power looks really good. He’s very likely gonna be a minute eating first pair defensmen and If I was choosing first overall right now I would absolutely still take him first. That doesn’t mean a few of the guys that went after him couldn’t be better than him but he’s the safest bet and has very good potential. He was the right choice.

I don’t get why people act like the number 1 pick has to be the best pick in the draft for it to be the right pick or a good pick.

Lol what? You don't draft based on safety ever. If we did, Nolan Patrick and Kappo Kakko would be Devils instead of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. You draft on long term ceiling + the best player at the time.

Well Nico vs Patrick might not be the best comparison from that draft, especially since Patrick had all the injury concerns.

But how about Nico vs Makar. Makar had clear talent, but was a smallish d-man, and he played a lower level of hockey. Nico was not considered super high end talent but he was well rounded and performed really well in the CHL, as well as international play. Not sure if there were many arguing Makar had higher upside at that point, but Nico was the safer, and I think at that time, the better pick.

Heiskanen vs Makar is another example of that imo.

 

[OmNomNom]

I don't really agree. Especially when it comes to consensus #1 overall ranked players. Like you said, scouting is not 100% and I could be wrong in a few years but I was not impressed with Power and did not think he'd be the best player of that draft, and I feel the same way with Wright.

Also while I didn't exactly rank Raymond #1 in 2020 (at least I don't think I did), I hyped him up like crazy and was just w/e about Laf, not because I didn't think he was out of reach but just cuz I loved Raymond's potential. Will have to see how everything plays out.

Again not to rag on steve too much but he did the same thing in 2017, sticking with the long time consensus #1 ranked guy.

what's wrong w sticking to the #1 consensus guy? scouting is opinions at the end of the day

of course he (and any other scout) would hype their #1 ranked pick - if they didn't, they wouldn't be #1

 

[Captain3rdLine]

 

[Saugus]

Is this an actual thing or just what you guys think happens? If I was an owner, I wouldn't give a shit who was ranked where, you failed your job.

I don't think it happens, but for a different reason. I don't think I've ever seen a GM get fired where the cited reason is that he was bad at drafting. More often it's because of an egregiously bad trade, or because the team didn't meet expectations of making the playoffs, etc.

In any case, in Montreal, being able to justify the pick to the rabidly critical media is absolutely a consideration. Wright fits the correct narrative and will probably be the consensus pick, so if it comes to them needing to break a tie, they'll pick him. If they absolutely think Slafkovsky or someone else is better at #1, they'll do that instead. But that will be harder to justify. It's not the main consideration, but it has to be in the back of the GM's mind.

 

[youryeah]

few snippets from a mailbag corey pronman did for the athletic

 

[StevenToddIves]

Have you ever read any of his posts on Andreas Johansson?

Why'd you mention Johnsson? I was in a good mood. Just whatever you do, don't bring up Connor Chatham.

 

[bossram]

Pronman is about as high on Slafkovksy as any public scout I've seen, FWIW. Even if he only turns into a "more competitive Mantha", that's a very good player.

 

[nugg]

Wouldn't that basically be AHL 2C?

The Comets need centers badly, so....

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

Lol what? You don't draft based on safety ever. If we did, Nolan Patrick and Kappo Kakko would be Devils instead of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. You draft on long term ceiling + the best player at the time.

Part of seeing the light is recognizing Hischier and Hughes were safer picks than Kakko and Patrick. The latter two were less likely to translate their offense to the NHL and that is the #1 criterion that high in the draft.

If some forward taken 60th overall projects as an offensive contributor but settles into something like Kakko’s current role, no one will complain much. That doesn’t fly with a first overall pick.

 

[My3Sons]

Part of seeing the light is recognizing Hischier and Hughes were safer picks than Kakko and Patrick. The latter two were less likely to translate their offense to the NHL and that is the #1 criterion that high in the draft.

If some forward taken 60th overall projects as an offensive contributor but settles into something like Kakko’s current role, no one will complain much. That doesn’t fly with a first overall pick.

I think Luke Hughes was a "safe" pick as well. Not unique to NJ either. Presumably any NHL team would see what his brothers did and be able to evaluate his skills and competitive nature against theirs to see at a minimum a good transitional NHL defender once he figures out the elements of NHL defending in his own zone. His brothers are smart and he sounds like a sharp kid and a determined one as well. If teams are worried about a guy being able to play in the league, let alone excel, I don't see how Luke Hughes wouldn't have been step for step with the other top prospects.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I think Luke Hughes was a "safe" pick as well. Not unique to NJ either. Presumably any NHL team would see what his brothers did and be able to evaluate his skills and competitive nature against theirs to see at a minimum a good transitional NHL defender once he figures out the elements of NHL defending in his own zone. His brothers are smart and he sounds like a sharp kid and a determined one as well. If teams are worried about a guy being able to play in the league, let alone excel, I don't see how Luke Hughes wouldn't have been step for step with the other top prospects.

I’m not sure Luke was or even is safe at this point. I mean yes he’s going to be an NHL player but he has enough to work on to the point where is legitimate bust potential. Notably, he’s not good enough in his own zone and has too many bad turnovers. He obviously has high end potential but I think other prospects such as Power, Beniers and Mctavish are much safer IMO.

 

[Hisch13r]

Lol what? You don't draft based on safety ever. If we did, Nolan Patrick and Kappo Kakko would be Devils instead of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. You draft on long term ceiling + the best player at the time.

Nico and Jack were both better and safer. Nico was a better player that year and didn't have the same health concerns. He was never riskier. Jack was better and the only way you could've thought Kakko was safer is if you overvalue size.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Lol what? You don't draft based on safety ever. If we did, Nolan Patrick and Kappo Kakko would be Devils instead of Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes. You draft on long term ceiling + the best player at the time.

Patrick was far riskier than Hischier because of the injuries and the inconsistency on the ice. You really weren't sure what you were getting with him, but you were crossing your fingers and hoping that he would have progressed from his stellar draft-2 campaign. Hischier was a pretty safe pick -- you weren't sure if the upside was stratospheric, but you knew you were getting a two-way center with great intangibles and no discernible weakness.

Hughes vs. Kakko wasn't even a choice. Hughes' skating, puck-handling, passing and offensive awareness weren't simply "elite" tools, they were all near-generational. Kakko had checks across the board and lacked any weakness whatsoever, but lacked anything nearing Hughes' upside. Yes, Kakko was generally a "safe" choice because you knew he would be good at an NHL level, but there was at least a full tier between Hughes and Kakko at the time they were drafted and now we can see that gap has widened considerably. Thus, the "risky" pick was Kakko -- because if you take him at #1 when he's not even close in talent to the guy you're passing on, you're pretty much costing yourself your job if Hughes even approaches his immense potential.

Nico and Jack were both better and safer. Nico was a better player that year and didn't have the same health concerns. He was never riskier. Jack was better and the only way you could've thought Kakko was safer is if you overvalue size.

100% agreed.

 

[Devs3cups]

I’m not sure Luke was or even is safe at this point. I mean yes he’s going to be an NHL player but he has enough to work on to the point where is legitimate bust potential. Notably, he’s not good enough in his own zone and has too many bad turnovers. He obviously has high end potential but I think other prospects such as Power, Beniers and Mctavish are much safer IMO.

I think Luke is a pretty safe bet offensively. I'm pretty certain he'll at least be a 50-ish point d-man based off of his offensive abilities and skating alone. With that being said, you'll hear no argument from me in regards to his defensive game, he definitely has work to do there, as most young, offensive minded d-men do. I'm not too worried about it though. I doubt he'll ever be a defensive rock, but if he can be at least average and serviceable, then great.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

what's wrong w sticking to the #1 consensus guy? scouting is opinions at the end of the day

of course he (and any other scout) would hype their #1 ranked pick - if they didn't, they wouldn't be #1

Nothing, but for a guy who challenged other well known guys who do this stuff and does get it right more often than not, I find it weird he becomes so attached to consensus #1 guys.

Also idk what you mean in the bolded part, that's not really what I was talking about.

I think Luke is a pretty safe bet offensively. I'm pretty certain he'll at least be a 50-ish point d-man based off of his offensive abilities and skating alone. With that being said, you'll hear no argument from me in regards to his defensive game, he definitely has work to do there, as most young, offensive minded d-men do. I'm not too worried about it though. I doubt he'll ever be a defensive rock, but if he can be at least average and serviceable, then great.

I don't see Luke busting at all, seeing how other offensive dmen prospects were. They weren't exactly defensive studs as prospects. Absolutely nothing to worry about.