Prospect Info: Devils Win #2 Overall -- Slafkovsky vs. Jiricek vs. Nemec

[Saugus]

Slaf will be known as The Wolf once he gets here, I’ll accept no other nicknames

And this as his personal goal song:

 

[Devils090]

And this as his personal goal song:

Ironically enough Howl is a great name for that…too bad the song itself sucks

 

[StevenToddIves]

You had Puljujarvi third overall in 2018.

But sure thing, he has not a single trait worth a top pick right?

You just stick your opinions out like fact and everyone here believes it. Yet you contradict yourself all the time

You didnt have Slafkovsky anywhere near this hyped before the Devils were out of the playoff race. Now all of a suddeny oure drooling over him. You play to the crowd and you know it.

I did not have Puljujarvi ranked 3rd overall in 2018, because he was drafted in 2016.

However, I did have Puljujarvi ranked 3rd overall in 2016, it was his universal ranking and I was on board as well after his huge year for Karpat in Liiga. It is now over 6 years later, and although I'd certainly say Puljujarvi is a good player, he has not developed into the superstar most of us had hoped. I do not apologize for this ranking.

Again, I had Slafkovsky ranked #2 overall weeks before the Devils won the draft lottery. It's easier to look this up than to find my 2018 rankings, because it's right here on my draft rankings thread.

I'm not sure where all the vitriol comes from, I'm pretty much nice to everyone on these boards and tend to look at the prospects with a healthy dose of optimism. I am willing to explain all of my opinions when asked. But if you don't like my work, that's ok too -- no one is forcing you to read it. I'm probably a pretty big reason we have so much draft content on the Devils HFBoards. You're welcome to write 150 fairly detailed prospect reviews of your own, if you'd like.

But probably the healthiest thing for you would be to stop inventing scenarios where I'm some sort of cult leader somehow brainwashing a whole lot of really smart posters here who regularly (and sensibly) disagree with my opinions and let go of the negativity.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Sure, me too, and I think we're blessed to have a guy like him post here. But I can also see how his strong opinions and sweeping his blunders under the rug can rub people the wrong way. Especially now when we are talking about an older high ranked draft pick vs new one. It does come off as "yeah this guy who I convinced you was gonna be great, just isn't any good, but trust me this next guy for sure is gonna be great"

Nobody admits their blunders like I admit blunders. Wait, were we talking about hockey rankings or life decisions?

 

[Devil made me do it]

You don't win playoff hockey with the Logan Cooleys of the world.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Pretty much this. I love Wright as a prospect, but I feel like I already know what I'm getting with him, which isn't to say that's a bad thing. He's the safe pick.

Cooley could be the best player in the draft with his dynamic skillset, but he comes with more risk than Wright.

I don't think Wright or Cooley have much risk. Cooley is not just a perimeter floater, he's a high-compete player with a solid all-around game. I think at the very least he'll be an NHL 2C. And Wright's overall skill-set is just too advanced for him to fall below an NHL 2C. They're both outstanding prospects.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You’re massively underrating Wright’s potential IMO. He definitely has ppg+ potential. I disagree with calling him Hischier with a better shot and worst Playmaking. His shot is better but his overall IQ and Playmaking is better than Hischier’s as well. I think he’s a better prospect than Hischier was and I love Hischier. His Playmaking and IQ is great. I’m wondering how much you’ve actually watched Wright. Even in his disappointing playoffs he was consistently creating chances with his Playmaking. He knows what he wants to do with the puck very quickly and he’s great at making quick slip passes or chipping it to other players. Wright has legitimate Bergeron potential. Now would I expect him to be that good? No but that’s his ceiling and his ceiling shouldn’t be underrated. His IQ as well as his extremely well rounded skillset could make him a very dominant player. The only thing Cooley has on him is speed.

His Playmaking is better than Cooley’s IMO as is his defensive game. People think it’s poor or inconsistent because he doesn’t fly around chasing players but he’s always in the right place at the right time and he’s great at supporting the puck.

I’m also not sure when Cooley became a player with elite pucks skills. His pucks skills are good but not great and not better than Wrights or the best in the draft.

Yeah, I love Cooley but I don't consider his playmaking as good as Wright or Slafkovsky and I certainly wouldn't compare him to Hughes or Zegras. Again, he's got the best combination of skating/puck-skills in the draft aside from Lambert, whom he is a far superior overall player to. I love how Cooley always plays the game at light speed. He's going to be a difference maker. But saying he's a better passer than Wright just seems weird to me.

I'd rank Cooley over Wright in three categories, and they're all important -- skating, puckhandling and compete level.

But Wright just gets a fairly pronounced edge in literally everything else -- shooting, passing vision, defense, physicality, hockey IQ.

Neither of these players have any discernible weakness where I could see them falling short of being a very good NHL 2C. But I'd say Wright has a higher floor and a higher ceiling.

 

[HBK27]

Just FYI, I'm probably more familiar with the Devils prospects than Scott Wheeler, and I have McCarthy somewhere around the Devils top 10 prospects and Walsh somewhere around the #20 range. McCarthy to me is the Devils top RD prospect, and I don't think it's really close.

I'm not going to use this space to insult Mr. Wheeler, who I very much respect, but the place we differ most is in our evaluations of defensemen. Wheeler down-ranks all defensemen -- he's said as much -- and tends to overvalue statistical output for D while diminishing defense-first defensemen. This is clear in his perennial low rankings of prospects like Sanderson, Seider and Faber.

I am precisely the opposite. I up-rank defensemen, because I find them to be more important than wingers to a team success. I down-rank offensive defensemen unless they have either elite scoring talent or can take care of their own end defensively. I think a 40-point D who cannot defend is more of a detriment to their team than anything else. Which is to say, while Quinn Hughes is still a great player despite his defensive shortcomings, it's because he's absolutely electrifying with the puck. I think Gostisbehere and Butcher, conversely, hurt a team more than they help. I also up-rank defensively sound D -- which is why I'm always giving high marks to the Sanderson's and Seiders and Fabers.

So, there you have it -- two wildly divergent rankings of Walsh by two evaluators with admittedly completely opposite criteria. I personally think Walsh's upside is a guy you can plug into a line-up 20-25 games per year if your offense is struggling, but if you keep him out there too long he'll be exposed and a liability. Certainly not the #3 prospect on a top 3 Prospect pool in the entire NHL. McCarthy to me will be a rock-solid, physical bottom pairing guy who is pretty decent with the puck.

I can pretty much guarantee you the Devils are back in the lottery next year if Smith and Walsh are both on that blueline. The Devils D-corps already don't hit enough or block shots enough. They're already pinned down low by heavy teams more than we would like. The third pairing should be the winner of a camp battle between Okhotyuk/Bahl/Mukhamadullin at LD with a UFA signing like Lyubushkin or Zadorov at RD. Smith should be a nice trade chip and Walsh should be in the AHL.

Good perspective - thanks!

Obviously very difficult to gauge the progress of defensive prospects for many of us as we rarely get to see them play. Personally, I've only really watched Luke Hughes and Ethan Edwards with any regularity this past season. I'm still hopeful for Walsh, but admittedly it's not based on much actual evidence.

Tough to find much on McCarthy - one article a few weeks back from BU Athletics mentioned he'll wear an 'A' this upcoming season and included the blurb: "McCarthy had a terrific junior campaign and was one of the Terriers' most consistent defensemen. In 26 games this past season, McCarthy scored a career-high five goals and added nine assists for a career-best 14 points. He was also named Hockey East Defender of the Month for November. In 70 career games, McCarthy has scored eight goals and added 20 assists for 28 points."

Hopefully he has a good senior season and the Devils are able to sign him shortly afterwards before losing his rights.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Good perspective - thanks!

Obviously very difficult to gauge the progress of defensive prospects for many of us as we rarely get to see them play. Personally, I've only really watched Luke Hughes and Ethan Edwards with any regularity this past season. I'm still hopeful for Walsh, but admittedly it's not based on much actual evidence.

Tough to find much on McCarthy - one article a few weeks back from BU Athletics mentioned he'll wear an 'A' this upcoming season and included the blurb: "McCarthy had a terrific junior campaign and was one of the Terriers' most consistent defensemen. In 26 games this past season, McCarthy scored a career-high five goals and added nine assists for a career-best 14 points. He was also named Hockey East Defender of the Month for November. In 70 career games, McCarthy has scored eight goals and added 20 assists for 28 points."

Hopefully he has a good senior season and the Devils are able to sign him shortly afterwards before losing his rights.

I thought McCarthy was outstanding over the first half of the season, though he plateau-ed a bit at the end. I think he struggled through some injury problems. The kid is really rock-solid defensively and in one-on-one battles. You can also ask @Tao Jersey Jones who does a really good job of scouting the college prospects, I just check up on them now and then.

 

[Forge]

You don't win playoff hockey with the Logan Cooleys of the world.

In fairness, we have to make the playoffs before we concerns ourselves with having a team that can win in the playoffs

 

[RememberTheName]

Yeah, I love Cooley but I don't consider his playmaking as good as Wright or Slafkovsky and I certainly wouldn't compare him to Hughes or Zegras. Again, he's got the best combination of skating/puck-skills in the draft aside from Lambert, whom he is a far superior overall player to. I love how Cooley always plays the game at light speed. He's going to be a difference maker. But saying he's a better passer than Wright just seems weird to me.

I'd rank Cooley over Wright in three categories, and they're all important -- skating, puckhandling and compete level.

But Wright just gets a fairly pronounced edge in literally everything else -- shooting, passing vision, defense, physicality, hockey IQ.

Neither of these players have any discernible weakness where I could see them falling short of being a very good NHL 2C. But I'd say Wright has a higher floor and a higher ceiling.

I didn't mean to try to compare Cooley to Hughes or Zegras, I might've not used a good word choice. Those are just two players who were drafted relatively recently who had a similar dynamic combination of skating, puckhandling, and playmaking that I see Cooley has. Both of those players are a bit better than Cooley, but my point stands that I believe that having those three skills make any player a lock to be a great offensive player at the next level.

I also think Cooley and Wright are both great playmakers in a different sense. Cooley is much riskier and more willing to just throw pucks into high danger areas (albeit not smartly at points) whereas when I watched Wright, he was always making the right pass and finding the open guy and never did anything too risky. That is the one major area that Wright has an edge on Cooley, in his IQ. But, I am not trying to look at players for how they are now. I am trying to look at this player and see where he is going to be in 5 years and what his development curve could look like. So, when looking at Cooley, I am trying to look at players with similar strengths as to what he has, like Zegras and Hughes, and the way in which they developed and what that type of player could look like a couple of years down the line. And likewise, I am doing the same for Wright. When I said that Cooley is a better playmaker, I am trying to anticipate where they will be down the line. Cooley is much more raw as a playmaker, but the raw vision he has, these lanes he sees that few others can, and his willingness to attempt risky passes make me think that down the line, Cooley could be this really dynamic playmaking center given how players with somewhat similar tendencies also ended up developing. Although he is not there right now, we aren't drafting for where they are right now. I am looking at what happens when he cleans up his offense and learns what he can and can't do with the puck, the kind of risks he can and can't take when stickhandling or trying to pass across the ice. And I think this player is better than the player that I see Wright developing into.

And I know I might be underselling Wright. I probably caught a couple of bad games from him and just ended up underwhelmed, but I can't write something that I didn't see myself. I've tried to see that dynamic offensive skill that I think he needs to really have a higher ceiling than I think he does, but for some reason, it's just never been there when I watched him, and I really wish it was. I always feel like I am missing something when I watch Shane Wright. He's good, but there's always something I need that I wish made him just stand out a little bit more. It's a little bit like what I saw when I watched Owen Power last year. I always thought he was solid, but I just thought he was always missing that one thing to really put him over the edge to show me why I could believe in him to be this dynamic player on both sides of the puck. I would love for Wright to prove me wrong.

 

[BurntToast]

Pronman is insane.

Cooley has more upside than SHANE WRIGHT?

Yo, you forgot to mention, the Cutter Hype train!?

All aboard.

 

[glenwo2]

I personally wouldn't draft Wright over Cooley, so there's that, and I personally can't see why teams would want Wright over Cooley. But, I will say that the gap isn't really huge, and with the upside that Cooley brings, there's also more risk. With Wright, you know what you're getting. You are going to get around a 30-30-60 center who can hold his own defensively and be a great 2nd line center or low end 1st line center. Think Nico Hischier with a better shot and slightly worse playmaking. Although you can be pretty confident you're going to get that kind of player, with the way he has progressed, I don't see him having the offensive skill needed to really be a dominant offensive player. He doesn't have that one thing that, when you watch him, makes you see that he's going to be a dominant offensive player. He's good at everything, great at nothing. This is not bad, as you're going to get an impactful top 6 center, but you're more than likely not going to get the best player in the draft. Some people think his upside his higher than this, but I just don't see anywhere near enough offensive skill to think he could reach a higher level than this.

Cooley is much more raw, and thus has a little bit more risk with him but also a bit more reward. He's got a couple of things he needs to work on: off puck play, bad decision making, overhandling the puck, physicality and being a perimeter player, consistency. If he doesn't break his bad habits, he won't be as good a player as Shane Wright, plain and simple. His game won't adapt to the NHL level as well, and he will probably be a skilled middle 6 center whose solid in transition. If he does, he should have no problem being a more impactful player, at least in my eyes. He has game changing skill with the puck on his stick and does things that shouldn't be possible with the puck. His elite playmaking ability generates ridiculous amounts of high danger scoring chances. He's real solid defensively, arguably moreso than Shane Wright who gets hyped more than he should for being highly inconsistent defensively. He could develop in the mold of a Pavel Datsyuk styled player (style, not level), a potential 70-75 point, 200 foot 1C who could garner a Selke nomination or two for his defensive play while consistently making jaw dropping plays in the offensive zone. That's his ceiling based on the raw tools I have seen.

As you mentioned in your post, sometimes, the safe pick is the right pick. For Montreal, getting a player who is a safe bet to be a Nico Hischier level of player is fantastic for them. Any team would love to get a consistent, 60-65 point high end 2C, low end 1C who can provide solid defense. He's not a game changer, but you know what you're going to get with him, and that's quite valuable to a team. For a team with little going for them like Montreal right now, it might be in their best interest to take a safe bet. But I am not big on safe bets. I want a game changer for my team. I want the best player for my team possible while balancing the risk of them not hitting on their potential. Logan Cooley can be a game changer all over the ice. People bet against players like Logan Cooley every year and every year they come and prove people wrong. Players with as much raw skill as Cooley just seem to always find ways to be highly successful players in the NHL. Guys like Trevor Zegras and Jack Hughes of late come to mind of players who just oozed puck skill and playmaking like Cooley does and then went and dominated. When I watch Cooley, he just has too much skill to not be successful. Sure, Wright is a "safer" bet, and I wouldn't fault Montreal for making the safe bet. I disagree, though, that the safe bet is the right bet.

Well damn.

I still don't understand the overall appeal of Shane Wright if Cooley is so damn special to NHL Pundits.

All I've heard is Shane Wright this and Shane Wright that.

Maybe because Wright's game was picked apart so much that we see what we are going to see whereas with Cooley, he's the shiny new toy that is a Mystery kind of like the Mystery Box that Peter Griffin of Family Guy selected instead of taking the Boat. lol

 

[Devs3cups]

I don't think Wright or Cooley have much risk. Cooley is not just a perimeter floater, he's a high-compete player with a solid all-around game. I think at the very least he'll be an NHL 2C. And Wright's overall skill-set is just too advanced for him to fall below an NHL 2C. They're both outstanding prospects.

I don't disagree with you at all, they're pretty safe bets in their own rights, I just believe Cooley is riskier than Wright!

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't disagree with you at all, they're pretty safe bets in their own rights, I just believe Cooley is riskier than Wright!

I'm not really worried about any of the top 6 or so picks this year -- I think there's naturally a possibility of someone not reaching their ultimate potential, of course, I just don't see any "bust" potential until later in the draft.

For instance, the absolute worst case scenario for Wright or Cooley is they're still NHL 3Cs. And even that is tough to conceive. For Slafkovsky or Gauthier, maybe they're just 3Ws, but again a lot would have to go wrong. For Nemec and Jiricek, we can say the same of them winding up 3RDs at the NHL level, but again, it's tough to see so much going wrong.

 

[Billdo]

Pronman is insane.

Cooley has more upside than SHANE WRIGHT?

I don't think that's that crazy. Wright seems to be a very safe player who should be an all around good player. I can see peoples thinking Cooley can exceed Wrights ceiling.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I'm not really worried about any of the top 6 or so picks this year -- I think there's naturally a possibility of someone not reaching their ultimate potential, of course, I just don't see any "bust" potential until later in the draft.

For instance, the absolute worst case scenario for Wright or Cooley is they're still NHL 3Cs. And even that is tough to conceive. For Slafkovsky or Gauthier, maybe they're just 3Ws, but again a lot would have to go wrong. For Nemec and Jiricek, we can say the same of them winding up 3RDs at the NHL level, but again, it's tough to see so much going wrong.

Ya but the reality is at least a couple of these players could probably end up being 3rd line players or worse. That’s just how it goes every year. You don’t sit their and expect them to but in all likelihood at least 1 or 2 of the top 5-6 players won’t turn into top 6 or 4 players.
If those players you mentioned are the top 6 I would put Gauthier and Jiricek as the most likely to not turn out IMO. And then Nemec and Cooley but I have a hard time seeing either of them not being decent top 6 F or top 4D.

 

[devilsblood]

I don't think that's that crazy. Wright seems to be a very safe player who should be an all around good player. I can see peoples thinking Cooley can exceed Wrights ceiling.

Ya we've seen picks in the 5-10 range prove to have higher ceilings then the #1oa before, and this looks like one of those drafts where the #1 is not a clear cut dominant force.

So pundits having different opinions is to be expected.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Montreal management will have some 'splainin to do if they don't pick Wright and he becomes basically anything with their desperate need of a center.

 

[Hisch13r]

Montreal management will have some 'splainin to do if they don't pick Wright and he becomes basically anything with their desperate need of a center.

Cooley wouldn’t be that bad

 

[TheUnseenHand]

Cooley wouldn’t be that bad

Not that I disagree, but it has to be a factor. Even if it will never be admitted. These guys must be thinking "If we pick Wright and he busts, we can always say he was the consensus number 1. If we don't and the player we do pick busts, or isn't as good as Wright, we are screwed."

 

[My3Sons]

I'm not really worried about any of the top 6 or so picks this year -- I think there's naturally a possibility of someone not reaching their ultimate potential, of course, I just don't see any "bust" potential until later in the draft.

For instance, the absolute worst case scenario for Wright or Cooley is they're still NHL 3Cs. And even that is tough to conceive. For Slafkovsky or Gauthier, maybe they're just 3Ws, but again a lot would have to go wrong. For Nemec and Jiricek, we can say the same of them winding up 3RDs at the NHL level, but again, it's tough to see so much going wrong.

Hah!! Imagine drafting a 3C at first overall if you are Montreal. What sort of career is that guy going to have? Maybe he’s lucky and scores 60 points in 70 games once being carried by dynamos like Zacha and Tatar and Vesey but I’m sure they’d be better off trading him.

 

[Hisch13r]

Not that I disagree, but it has to be a factor. Even if it will never be admitted. These guys must be thinking "If we pick Wright and he busts, we can always say he was the consensus number 1. If we don't and the player we do pick busts, or isn't as good as Wright, we are screwed."

Yeah I still go Wright. It reminds me a lot of 2017. You’re likely getting a really good player in Wright. If some other guys look better in hindsight you shouldn’t care that much. Sometimes safe is best

 

[JimEIV]

Nobody admits their blunders like I admit blunders. Wait, were we talking about hockey rankings or life decisions?

I like your post a lot, I really do. I read most all of them. I find myself in total agreement on most of the philosophical points you make, for instance your comments on Dmen just a little while ago... I especially enjoy the light hearted post like this one.

But if you allow to honest for a moment...

Your post are almost 100% positive on everything.. @My3Sons has a similar outlook and approach to things...I can't speak for anyone else but for me, sometimes the positivity while we are mired in waist deep shit is irritating.

It's not just you and its nothing personal of course...it just sometimes the positivity gets to the point of absurdity.

I mean it's a decade now of losing...8 years of high picks...years of being told we have one of best prospect pools in the league and years of "the turn around being right around the corner"...and every off season there is a simple solution that will make everything better....Nero couldn't even be this blase.

Anyway I think that's why some people get irritable. You write fun to read stuff but I don't think there is anything wrong with calling a shitty situation or player what it is.

 

[RSeen]

I like your post a lot, I really do. I read most all of them. I find myself in total agreement on most of the philosophical points you make, for instance your comments on Dmen just a little while ago... I especially enjoy the light hearted post like this one.

But if you allow to honest for a moment...

Your post are almost 100% positive on everything.. @My3Sons has a similar outlook and approach to things...I can't speak for anyone else but for me, sometimes the positivity while we are mired in waist deep shit is irritating.

It's not just you and its nothing personal of course...it just sometimes the positivity gets to the point of absurdity.

I mean it's a decade now of losing...8 years of high picks...years of being told we have one of best prospect pools in the league and years of "the turn around being right around the corner"...and every off season there is a simple solution that will make everything better....Nero couldn't even be this blase.

Anyway I think that's why some people get irritable. You write fun to read stuff but I don't think there is anything wrong with calling a shitty situation or player what it is.

There is a lot of reasons to be optimistic. Our young players took substantial steps forward, we have several high end prospects with another likely coming, and our team performed relatively well 5 on 5. With better goaltending, we will have a substantially better team next year, and there is a clear route to being a contender with all the talent we have accumulated.