The Hall of Fame committee isn't always as rational as you would think. No one ever would have thought Shanahan would have to wait, while Sundin (who many people considered a guy that would have to wait) got in on the first try. As much as the History of Hockey board would like to think otherwise, the custodians of the game don't think the way they do.
Looking at the voting history, the Hall of Fame seems to place a great deal on non-quantifiables like legacy, leadership, importance to team, longevity, etc. In those areas Elias shines. He's got his 400 goals / 600 assists / 1000 points, he's got his two Cups, he's got his playoff production so it's not like his production is completely without merit. His peak from 99-04 he was certainly one of the top-10 forwards in the game and was the offensive catalyst of a perennial contender. He compares favorably to contemporaries like Alfredsson, Hossa, Lecavalier, Marleau, and others.
Honestly, prior to 2012 it was still pretty gray. But finishing top-10 in points with Zubrus and Sykora as his linemates at age 34 was arguably more impressive than his 96 point season. I would tell all skeptics to look at that season in context.
I made my full case in these posts
Elias vs. Contemporaries
Elias vs Hossa Point Shares
Plus, Doc is on the selection panel
I don't think he gets in first year but he'll get in eventually.