Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - season begins!

[My3Sons]

I think both NJ goalies are now over .900 for the year? If they can keep that up and improve a bit the team should be fine. Fingers crossed.

 

[theoptimist]

Fitz gets an A from me. I’ve liked all the signings, not sure what’s next for Tatar

 

[MadDevil]

I think both NJ goalies are now over .900 for the year? If they can keep that up and improve a bit the team should be fine. Fingers crossed.

Allen has been the definition of feast or famine. In his 3 wins he's given up a total of 1 goal on 69 shots. In his 2 losses he's given up 12 goals on 67 shots.

 

[Devils731]

If you told me Hughes and Bratt would have a combined 7 goals through 15 games, I don’t know how bad a record I would have guessed the team would have.

Bratt in particular will start having pucks go in at a higher rate. Crazy bad luck on the wide open net last night.

Thinking of rates, I thought the Devils PDO might be pretty high after last nights game but it very reasonable at 5 on 5, gets a little dicier at all strengths. 13th And 8th in the league respectively.

 

[Camille the Eel]

2 goals against (1 empty net against), on the Western Canadian road trip is fantastic any way you slice it.

Keep the middle of the ice in our zone clear and get good goal tending - that's the Devils formula so far this year. The Keefe system, the difference from Devil's past. Defense first. We were within 5 minutes of shutting out all three opponents out west, all strong teams.

Plus the power play and PK are looking vastly improved. Our skill - while often light weight - can be quite an advantage there. That too is looking like a marked difference. Bratt's power play goal last night turned the entire game around. The two goal lead when we were getting crushed in chances in the second period was the tipping point.

I would like to see us play better in center ice, that is, between the blue lines. Break up other team's attacks there and generate more counter attacks. That will affect puck possession too.

League wise, it's shaping up like last year with so many teams on the bubble. There are almost no easy wins and the league has the "parity" it's been looking for. There's nothing wrong with us hanging on the bubble but I hope to see us riding on the front end of it, in a playoff spot like we are now, and not getting to where we have to chase that playoff spot from multiple games down. Montreal this week is dangerous, Montilembaut (spelling?) can do to us what Allen did to the Oilers last night. Anyway, Keefe's system keeps us in games and gives our skill a chance to win them more often than not.

 

[Zippy316]

Fitz gets an A from me. I’ve liked all the signings, not sure what’s next for Tatar

Tatar is nice to have stashed away as a back up option in the top six, especially given his chemistry with Hischier, Hughes, and Bratt.

He’s not going to look good on a fourth line with MacDermid but he’s going to work his ass off every shift regardless of who he plays with.

He did get a bit of the short end of the stick with Meier - Hughes - Bratt not working. It kicked him off of the Hischier line and Palat was preferred with Hughes - Bratt for some size and physicality.

 

[I Hate Tie DOMI]

Tatar is nice to have stashed away as a back up option in the top six, especially given his chemistry with Hischier, Hughes, and Bratt.

He’s not going to look good on a fourth line with MacDermid but he’s going to work his ass off every shift regardless of who he plays with.

He did get a bit of the short end of the stick with Meier - Hughes - Bratt not working. It kicked him off of the Hischier line and Palat was preferred with Hughes - Bratt for some size and physicality.

Agreed. Offensively Tatar looked a bit of a mess last night, because who wants to pass a puck to MacDermid, when he'll just dump it into a corner anyway? He held on to it too long and lost possession a few times, but defensively he also made a couple good plays last night. He doesn't seem to be coasting despite the 4th line demotion.

 

[dzubrus8]

Washington is having a resurgence off of rebuilt top2 centers. Both youngish guys that were 3rd and 4th overall picks.

I appreciate that, good shout there, but I don’t think it’s really replicable

PLD - nobody was doubting he was a good player (60 point large center/winger in Winnipeg), the issues seemed to be compete level (why he got traded to LA) and then all of LA’s need, and PLD’s compete, fit and contract (why he got traded from LA). Washington traded arguably negative value for that contract and so far he has 6 pts in 11gms (45 pt pace) and is on a 7x$8. If the devils make that trade and it doesn’t work out it’d possibly destroy the compete window.

Strome - baffling to me that Chicago let him hit UFA at 24 off of a 55-60 point pace season. Would not be able to realistically bank on that happening.

If you could give me PLD on something like 4x$5 in a free trade or guarantee a Strome type hits UFA at 24 I’d change my tune but those things both feel extremely unlikely. I could probably dust off as many examples of top-4 prime aged defensemen being acquired in unexpected ways (Shea Theodore, Gustav Forsling, Brandon Montour)

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I would like to see us play better in center ice, that is, between the blue lines. Break up other team's attacks there and generate more counter attacks. That will affect puck possession too.

I agree, I feel they're way too passive there. Hopefully it's because they're adjusting to the new system and being conservative and not an actual system Keefe wants.

 

[My3Sons]

I appreciate that, good shout there, but I don’t think it’s really replicable

PLD - nobody was doubting he was a good player (60 point large center/winger in Winnipeg), the issues seemed to be compete level (why he got traded to LA) and then all of LA’s need, and PLD’s compete, fit and contract (why he got traded from LA). Washington traded arguably negative value for that contract and so far he has 6 pts in 11gms (45 pt pace) and is on a 7x$8. If the devils make that trade and it doesn’t work out it’d possibly destroy the compete window.

Strome - baffling to me that Chicago let him hit UFA at 24 off of a 55-60 point pace season. Would not be able to realistically bank on that happening.

If you could give me PLD on something like 4x$5 in a free trade or guarantee a Strome type hits UFA at 24 I’d change my tune but those things both feel extremely unlikely. I could probably dust off as many examples of top-4 prime aged defensemen being acquired in unexpected ways (Shea Theodore, Gustav Forsling, Brandon Montour)

If Strome and PLD are why Washington has started out hot it doesn't seem all that likely to continue in my view. Their top scorers are all on shooting benders and those don't usually last that long. We will see. NJ was one bad change away from beating them twice. If NJ can't beat good teams what does that say about the Crapitals?

 

[Brodeur]

Strome - baffling to me that Chicago let him hit UFA at 24 off of a 55-60 point pace season. Would not be able to realistically bank on that happening.

Definitely a weird journey for Strome.

Drafted by Arizona in 2015 when Don Maloney was the GM. Maloney is canned less than a year later and replaced by John Chayka. Strome never seemed like a Chayka guy / he really coveted Nick Schmaltz; Strome is traded around Thanksgiving 2018 before playing a full season with the Coyotes.

Then Chicago goes through the Kyle Beech scandal and Stan Bowman resigns in 2021. New management group comes in and they basically decide to go scorched Earth. Strome had been in the dog house before getting some traction with DeBrincat-Kane in 2021-22. But I think there was some healthy skepticism about whether Strome was just a passenger on that line. They decided to trade DeBrincat at the 2022 Draft and Kane was going into the last year of his contract. They tried to trade Strome but nobody was biting; Strome had to wait until Day 2 of free agency that year to land a contract, so he probably wasn't Plan A for a lot of clubs.

 

[tailfins]

On Casey / Nemec, I think the first issue is: how does Fitz want to construct his D?

Right now, you've got a D corps that looks like:
- two big guys who can end plays and will fight (Dillon and Kovy)
- two slightly less big guys who can skate and play shut down D (Siegs and Pesce)
- two big guys who can bring offense - one of whom can skate and other who can't (Luke and Hamilton)

Where do Casey / Nemec fit? They're the smallest of the group, and currently neither possess a skill that the Devils D corps lacks.

Personally, I think that the proposal that Montreal poster made (Nemec for Mailloux and Hage) is exactly the type of thing that NJ needs to look at. I don't see either NJ or Montreal doing that deal right now, but I think Fitz would prefer to move one of Nemec or Casey for a bigger guy with perhaps less skill on the right side. If they can pick up a 3C prospect in that deal, all the better.

 

[My3Sons]

On Casey / Nemec, I think the first issue is: how does Fitz want to construct his D.

Right now, you've got a D corps that looks like:
- two big guys who can end plays and will fight (Dillon and Kovy)
- two slightly less big guys who can skate and play shut down D (Siegs and Pesce)
- two big guys who can bring offense - one of whom can skate and other who can't (Luke and Hamilton)

Where do Casey / Nemec fit?

Personally, I think that the proposal that Montreal poster made (Nemec for Mailloux and Hage) is exactly the type of thing that NJ needs to look at. I don't see either NJ or Montreal doing that deal right now, but I think Fitz would prefer to move one of Nemec or Casey for a bigger guy with perhaps less skill on the right side. If they can pick up a 3C prospect in that deal, all the better.

Kovacevic is likely moving on next season. That's one spot open. Presumably they keep Hamilton for this season and next but I think he is moved after next season. They will need both Casey and Nemec. And why are you in such a rush to pick up a prospect to replace Hischier? He's got plenty of tread left on his tires.

 

[dgibb10]

On Casey / Nemec, I think the first issue is: how does Fitz want to construct his D?

Right now, you've got a D corps that looks like:
- two big guys who can end plays and will fight (Dillon and Kovy) -Gone, Replaced by Silayev and Nemec long term
- two slightly less big guys who can skate and play shut down D (Siegs and Pesce)
- two big guys who can bring offense - one of whom can skate and other who can't (Luke and Hamilton)- potentially gone and replaced by Casey depending on how timelines and cap crunches work

Where do Casey / Nemec fit? They're the smallest of the group, and currently neither possess a skill that the Devils D corps lacks.

Personally, I think that the proposal that Montreal poster made (Nemec for Mailloux and Hage) is exactly the type of thing that NJ needs to look at. I don't see either NJ or Montreal doing that deal right now, but I think Fitz would prefer to move one of Nemec or Casey for a bigger guy with perhaps less skill on the right side. If they can pick up a 3C prospect in that deal, all the better.

Anyway let's extend nemec for 8 years after this season.

sub 16 mill for Luke-Nemec and I'm a happy happy man

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

On Casey / Nemec, I think the first issue is: how does Fitz want to construct his D?

Right now, you've got a D corps that looks like:
- two big guys who can end plays and will fight (Dillon and Kovy)
- two slightly less big guys who can skate and play shut down D (Siegs and Pesce)
- two big guys who can bring offense - one of whom can skate and other who can't (Luke and Hamilton)

Where do Casey / Nemec fit? They're the smallest of the group, and currently neither possess a skill that the Devils D corps lacks.

Personally, I think that the proposal that Montreal poster made (Nemec for Mailloux and Hage) is exactly the type of thing that NJ needs to look at. I don't see either NJ or Montreal doing that deal right now, but I think Fitz would prefer to move one of Nemec or Casey for a bigger guy with perhaps less skill on the right side. If they can pick up a 3C prospect in that deal, all the better.

Don’t see any need to move either. You trade Dougie 10 times out of 10 over moving a 20 year old of Nemec’s caliber. We’re likely not getting fair value on a Casey deal either so I’m holding on to him as well.

 

[Billdo]

Don’t see any need to move either. You trade Dougie 10 times out of 10 over moving a 20 year old of Nemec’s caliber. We’re likely not getting fair value on a Casey deal either so I’m holding on to him as well.

Yeah, I think the writing is on the wall for Hamiltons departure prior to his finishing his deal here. In 3 years you could see Luke-Nemec, Silayev-Pesce, Siegenthaler-Casey.

 

[Bleedred]

I don't think this is Dougie's last year here, but he likely doesn't survive his entire contract here. There's still 3 more years of it after this one.

I fully expect the top priority this offseason as far as trimming the fat goes will be to get rid of Palat somehow. I'd have to think they'll do whatever to get him out of here some way. Maybe via buyout worst case scenario, but I still think there will be teams who will take him, but it's a question of if they're on his list and what we'd have to give them just to take him.

If he winds up finishing the season with 30-40 points they may be fine with keeping him one more year, but I think they'd like to free up the space. If he scores 30-40 points this year then I would think that increases the number of potential teams willing to take him on.

 

[JrFischer54]

On Casey / Nemec, I think the first issue is: how does Fitz want to construct his D?

Right now, you've got a D corps that looks like:
- two big guys who can end plays and will fight (Dillon and Kovy)
- two slightly less big guys who can skate and play shut down D (Siegs and Pesce)
- two big guys who can bring offense - one of whom can skate and other who can't (Luke and Hamilton)

Where do Casey / Nemec fit? They're the smallest of the group, and currently neither possess a skill that the Devils D corps lacks.

Personally, I think that the proposal that Montreal poster made (Nemec for Mailloux and Hage) is exactly the type of thing that NJ needs to look at. I don't see either NJ or Montreal doing that deal right now, but I think Fitz would prefer to move one of Nemec or Casey for a bigger guy with perhaps less skill on the right side. If they can pick up a 3C prospect in that deal, all the better.

find out who your two hammers on the back end are going to be that eat a ton of mins and do everything. after that you should look to move two of the other kids trade from your strength to improve your weakness. face it in a perfect world you keep everyone but its not possible you won't be able to play them the mins they want/need to develop and players aren't going to be comfortable in a smaller role i'm sure.

so find out whatever two are going to be the stars you know one is the hughes factor so he is going to stay then just find out who the other is you are going to build around them two and there will always be dillions siegs pessce type players to bring in for ufa.

btw i'm not moving any of the blue line kids for anything less then prime type of return. i see people mention we need 3c and all that noway

 

[R8Devs]

I don't see how you would make any decisions on the Devils future d on Kovacevic and Dillon. Kovacevic is a UFA this off season so if he is what he was at the start of the season the Devils would probably need to trade Hamilton to accommodate his contract if they're even able to sign him and that would create a spot for Nemec. But what's more likely is Kovacevic is a good bottom pair guy that Nemec will play over at some point this season and the Devils might have to trade Hamilton anyway for cap space reasons.

Dillon is a 33 year old LHD and they just had to give him term to get him to sign but he's not a long term solution. Young RHD aren't cheap to acquire so the Devils would regret trading Nemec and trading for other prospects is not enticing at all.

 

[JrFischer54]

I don't think this is Dougie's last year here, but he likely doesn't survive his entire contract here. There's still 3 more years of it after this one.

I fully expect the top priority this offseason as far as trimming the fat goes will be to get rid of Palat somehow. I'd have to think they'll do whatever to get him out of here some way. Maybe via buyout worst case scenario, but I still think there will be teams who will take him, but it's a question of if they're on his list and what we'd have to give them just to take him.

If he winds up finishing the season with 30-40 points they may be fine with keeping him one more year, but I think they'd like to free up the space. If he scores 30-40 points this year then I would think that increases the number of potential teams willing to take him on.

I think dougie has at minimum two more after this season here.

 

[My3Sons]

Allen has been the definition of feast or famine. In his 3 wins he's given up a total of 1 goal on 69 shots. In his 2 losses he's given up 12 goals on 67 shots.

If he steadily posts 3-1-1 intervals the team will be pretty good. How he gets there may be frustrating but at the end of the season we likely would be happy with it.

 

[Bleedred]

I think dougie has at minimum two more after this season here.

I'm gonna say at least one more, potentially two more.

 

[dgibb10]

I'd be perfectly fine moving Casey tbh.

25-26:
Hughes-Pesce
Siegs-Hamilton
Dillon-Nemec
Kovacevic (on a 2-3 year deal) or Hatakka or Vilen or Misyul or whatever 7D works.

26-27 you move hamilton when Nemec's contract is due.
Hughes-Pesce
Siegs-Nemec
Silayev-Kovacevic
Dillon (expensive 7D but oh well, no point dumping 1 year and trying to sign a worse replacement)

Or regardless Casey's timeline doesn't bring him into the lineup next year outside of a potential injury replacement.

I'm gonna say at least one more, potentially two more.

If Dillon was a 2 year deal I'd be more confident that Hamilton lasts this year+2 more. with Dillon at 3 years it's tougher, unless silayev waits an extra year to come over

That third year you have

Luke-Pesce
Silayev-Nemec
Siegs-Hamilton
Dillon-Casey.

One, maybe even 2 of these 3 are likely to go Hamilton, Dillon, Casey.

 

[tailfins]

I'd be perfectly fine moving Casey tbh.

25-26:
Hughes-Pesce
Siegs-Hamilton
Dillon-Nemec
Kovacevic (on a 2-3 year deal) or Hatakka or Vilen or Misyul or whatever 7D works.

26-27 you move hamilton when Nemec's contract is due.
Hughes-Pesce
Siegs-Nemec
Silayev-Kovacevic
Dillon (expensive 7D but oh well, no point dumping 1 year and trying to sign a worse replacement)

Or regardless Casey's timeline doesn't bring him into the lineup next year outside of a potential injury replacement.

If Dillon was a 2 year deal I'd be more confident that Hamilton lasts this year+2 more. with Dillon at 3 years it's tougher, unless silayev waits an extra year to come over

That third year you have

Luke-Pesce
Silayev-Nemec
Siegs-Hamilton
Dillon-Casey.

One, maybe even 2 of these 3 are likely to go Hamilton, Dillon, Casey.

No way we go with a D corps that young. Luke would be 23, Silayev 20, Casey 22, and Nemec 22.

The reasons I see them moving on from Nemec and / or Casey are:
- age
- size
- cost efficiency

Age: Nemec and Casey are super young on a team that wants to win now. You've already got Luke making his young kid mistakes. Can you afford more? Maybe you could integrate one more into a bottom pair role, but not both.

Size: Nemec and Casey are the smallest guys of the group, and neither play a particularly physical style. As we see right now, Fitz / Keefe are actually preferring to have everyone with size / physicality vs working Nemec or Casey in. (You can say Luke isn't that physical - but then do you think Fitz / Keefe want a second guy like that?)

Cost: Guys who are drafted #2OA (Nemec) or who put up points (Casey) tend to get paid. But, the Devils don't really need the pedigree or the points. Meanwhile, every year there are available defensive D who can thrive when given a clear role in a structured system - and they make relative peanuts. See Kovacevic this year. Obviously, you're not likely to get a top 4 guy dumpster diving, but solving for 3RD is realistic. And then go find another guy like Pesce - again not flashy, but big, steady, and not breaking the bank.

These are the reasons why I thought they moved Bahl too early. He actually fit into what Fitz is trying to build. I think the Devils go looking for his equivalent on the right side.

 

[dgibb10]

No way we go with a D corps that young. Luke would be 23, Silayev 20, Casey 22, and Nemec 22.

The reasons I see them moving on from Nemec and / or Casey are:
- age
- size
- cost efficiency

Age: Nemec and Casey are super young on a team that wants to win now. You've already got Luke making his young kid mistakes. Can you afford more? Maybe you could integrate one more into a bottom pair role, but not both.

Size: Nemec and Casey are the smallest guys of the group, and neither play a particularly physical style. As we see right now, Fitz / Keefe are actually preferring to have everyone with size / physicality vs working Nemec or Casey in. (You can say Luke isn't that physical - but then do you think Fitz / Keefe want a second guy like that?)

Cost: Guys who are drafted #2OA (Nemec) or who put up points (Casey) tend to get paid. But, the Devils don't really need the pedigree or the points. Meanwhile, every year there are available defensive D who can thrive when given a clear role in a structured system - and they make relative peanuts. See Kovacevic this year. Obviously, you're not likely to get a top 4 guy dumpster diving, but solving for 3RD is realistic. And then go find another guy like Pesce - again not flashy, but big, steady, and not breaking the bank.

These are the reasons why I thought they moved Bahl too early. He actually fit into what Fitz is trying to build. I think the Devils go looking for his equivalent on the right side.

A) Bahl wasn't good. You can't say "NJD can't afford to let guys try and develop in the NHL" while suggesting NJD should have let Bahl keep trying in hopes he would become a competent 3rd pairing dman. Those are the guys contenders don't give time to, low upside guys who aren't helping you win now, and aren't long term core pieces. Contenders are always looking to add potential game changers at controlled costs.
B) I have said Casey will not be a regular this or next year. By that point Luke and Nemec will have 3 full years under their belt, if Casey comes in at all
C) if you want to save money and cap space, use ELCs and RFAs.
D) You make a lot of claims about what Fitzgerald prefers and how fitz won't want them at the same time. The problem with that is the fact that Fitzgerald was the guy who drafted BOTH of them. Did you think he forgot luke hughes existed when he picked Nemec?