Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part XXIV

[Omar Little]

Banking on Holtz being in the Top 6 and contributing is a good way to have our season be over by game 15 again.

 

[glenwo2]

Banking on Holtz being in the Top 6 and contributing is a good way to have our season be over by game 15 again.

Well we of course need a goaltender that can stop a damn puck.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Banking on Holtz being in the Top 6 and contributing is a good way to have our season be over by game 15 again.

No it isn’t. We can already fill out a solid top 6 without him. With zero acquisitions we have a center pacing over 100 points, another center pacing over 70 points, and a point per game wing. Not even mentioning year 2 Mercer, year 3 Sharangovich.

We don’t need him to be much more than an above average finisher and just not be an anchor on a line. Jack and Bratt will drive the bus no matter who they are with. I wouldn’t write him in to a spot on the top 6, but he will be getting a shot.

 

[NjDevsRR]

No it isn’t. We can already fill out a solid top 6 without him. With zero acquisitions we have a center pacing over 100 points, another center pacing over 70 points, and a point per game wing. Not even mentioning year 2 Mercer, year 3 Sharangovich.

We don’t need him to be much more than an above average finisher and just not be an anchor on a line. Jack and Bratt will drive the bus no matter who they are with. I wouldn’t write him in to a spot on the top 6, but he will be getting a shot.

People are so worried about our forwards and I don’t get it. Pages and pages lately of top 9 forward discussion. Isn’t NJD top 10 in goals forced in the 2022 calendar year? Or something like that.

We need D structure and goaltending.

 

[Rydev]

People are so worried about our forwards and I don’t get it. Pages and pages lately of top 9 forward discussion. Isn’t NJD top 10 in goals forced in the 2022 calendar year? Or something like that.

We need D structure and goaltending.

I think a middle-6 winger with some size and board work would do wonders for our offense. But I could agree that, if we enter next season with the exact same offense minus one of Zacha/Johnsson/Tatar, I wouldnt be concerned about goal scoring.

I think, besides the obvious goaltending issues, our biggest upgrade this offseason would be at coaching. A better system could take this defense to new heights even before an outside acquisition/inside upgrade.

A 3RD like Kulikov was for us to replace PK is about the most Id think of doing to the defense, with pure cash that is. A trade would likely involve Ty Smith or Ryan Graves

 

[Guttersniped]

This article actually supports what I was saying in here yesterday. Sharangovich is a capable top 6 winger and our best option as a shooter for Jack right now. But if we want to be a contender he isn’t good enough. I think we need a true 30-35+ goal scorer who plays well with Jack and can put up 40+ with him.

The article is pointing out that Tatar is definitely going away in year and Zacha is very likely doing the same. That leaves two spots open on the left side.

Fitz tried to get a better scoring winger than Tatar this off-season, specifically Saad. He was rumored to have been trying to swap Zacha for scoring winger with problematic QOs (Boeser, DeBrusk).

It’s not like Sharangovich has to go, we need more. We’ll see what Fitz does in the off-season. Getting 30+ goal scorer isn’t exactly a small order and you need to be careful with UFA deals.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

The article is pointing out that Tatar is definitely going away in year and Zacha is very likely doing the same. That leaves two spots open on the left side.

Fitz tried to get a better scoring winger than Tatar this off-season, specifically Saad. He was rumored to have been trying to swap Zacha for scoring winger with problematic QOs (Boeser, DeBrusk).

It’s not like Sharangovich has to go, we need more. We’ll see what Fitz does in the off-season. Getting 30+ goal scorer isn’t exactly a small order and you need to be careful with UFA deals.

I never said Sharangovich has to go. Just think we might need a better player and goal scorer on Hughes’s wing in the future if we want to be a contender and get the most out of Jack’s skill and playmaking.

 

[Guttersniped]

People are so worried about our forwards and I don’t get it. Pages and pages lately of top 9 forward discussion. Isn’t NJD top 10 in goals forced in the 2022 calendar year? Or something like that.

We need D structure and goaltending.

Yes, we don’t discuss goaltending nearly enough. (Got you there with my scathing sarcasm, I can’t help that I’m a great wit.)

 

[Rydev]

Is it possible that, if we hire new coaching, the offense could take a step back? Or would the continued development of our younger forwards negate this?

I ask because if we find a coach who runs a tight defensive system, it may coincide with less transitional opportunity and a lack of freedom for forwards.

Im not insinuating that itd be a Barry Trotz-level of defensive structure, but I get the feeling that Ruff just lets the offense play and only expects them to back/forecheck. I dont see much attention to detail on opposing breakouts, nor even much neutral zone defense. Just a bunch of faster guys chasing the puck it seems.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Is it possible that, if we hire new coaching, the offense could take a step back? Or would the continued development of our younger forwards negate this?

I ask because if we find a coach who runs a tight defensive system, it may coincide with less transitional opportunity and a lack of freedom for forwards.

Im not insinuating that itd be a Barry Trotz-level of defensive structure, but I get the feeling that Ruff just lets the offense play and only expects them to back/forecheck. I dont see much attention to detail on opposing breakouts, nor even much neutral zone defense. Just a bunch of faster guys chasing the puck it seems.

It’s possible that the 5 on 5 offense could take a step back while the PP gets better. It’s hard to imagine having a worse PP next season.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Big Question. Could Smith legitimately be at risk of not making the team out of training camp next season? Assuming Graves and Siegenthaler are back and we sign a veteran RD to replace Subban. If Bahl and Okhotiuk finish the season well I would think they will have a shot at making the team next season.

Siegenthaler Hamilton
Graves Severson
3LD 3RD(FA)
7D

So I’d imagine it could be a 3-5 way battle for that final LD spot and the 7th D spot.
Bahl, Okhotiuk, Smith, White(probably not), Walsh (shot at 7D?). Smith honestly could end up being the guy left out if he doesn’t figure things out. He’s looked better at times and certainly hasn’t been as bad as he was at the start. But it still hasn’t been good enough and if other young D come up and out perform him they deserve that spot more than him. Remains to be seen with Okhotiuk. And they could also have 8D on the roster or injuries could happen. But I think it’s a possibility. Maybe we should push more to trade him this off-season. And he doesn’t seem like Fitz’s type of player.

 

[Azathoth]

Is it possible that, if we hire new coaching, the offense could take a step back? Or would the continued development of our younger forwards negate this?

I ask because if we find a coach who runs a tight defensive system, it may coincide with less transitional opportunity and a lack of freedom for forwards.

Im not insinuating that itd be a Barry Trotz-level of defensive structure, but I get the feeling that Ruff just lets the offense play and only expects them to back/forecheck. I dont see much attention to detail on opposing breakouts, nor even much neutral zone defense. Just a bunch of faster guys chasing the puck it seems.

I'd be ok with a small step back in goal scoring if it means a bigger decrease in goals against. Plus just getting an average PP should be able to make up for any 5 on 5 decrease in scoring.

 

[Rydev]

I'd be ok with a small step back in goal scoring if it means a bigger decrease in goals against. Plus just getting an average PP should be able to make up for any 5 on 5 decrease in scoring.

Thats a very good point. Didnt think of how itd offset

 

[AfroThunder396]

Lindy specifically references looking at expected goals against as a way to evaluate defensemen at the end of the season. Starts at about 6:20.

 

[bossram]

I have no problem with keeping Sharangovich around, even if it means he has a spot next to Hughes long-term.

Contending teams need cheap-ish guys who can produce next to their elite players, to allow for scoring depth down the lineup when the situations call for it. Shara is a solid player and has some decent chemistry with Jack. Ideally either Holtz or Mercer becomes a very high-end player to drop-in on Jack's opposite wing.

Then you can have essentially a second 1st line with Bratt and Nico.

A smart addition (like Nichushkin) could anchor an effective 3rd line.

 

[Devils731]

Lindy specifically references looking at expected goals against as a way to evaluate defensemen at the end of the season. Starts at about 6:20.

I hope the team creates more granular data than publicly available to create a more in-depth xGA number.

 

[Lou Bloom]

Banking on Holtz being in the Top 6 and contributing is a good way to have our season be over by game 15 again.

The Leafs went into the year with Ilya Mikheyev and Michael Bunting competing for a top 6 spot, Oilers started the season with two big question marks in Puljujarvi and Yamamoto. I don't think going into the offseason banking on a blue chip prospect that put up elite numbers in the AHL being NHL ready in his D+3 season is going to make or break a season.

 

[Eggtimer]

I hope the team creates more granular data than publicly available to create a more in-depth xGA number.

Ty Smith must be shitting bricks knowing that they will look at advanced stats to help judge who deserves a spot or not . It has to be obvious that Smith got caved in most of the year .

 

[Guttersniped]

Big Question. Could Smith legitimately be at risk of not making the team out of training camp next season? Assuming Graves and Siegenthaler are back and we sign a veteran RD to replace Subban. If Bahl and Okhotiuk finish the season well I would think they will have a shot at making the team next season.

Siegenthaler Hamilton
Graves Severson
3LD 3RD(FA)
7D

So I’d imagine it could be a 3-5 way battle for that final LD spot and the 7th D spot.
Bahl, Okhotiuk, Smith, White(probably not), Walsh (shot at 7D?). Smith honestly could end up being the guy left out if he doesn’t figure things out. He’s looked better at times and certainly hasn’t been as bad as he was at the start. But it still hasn’t been good enough and if other young D come up and out perform him they deserve that spot more than him. Remains to be seen with Okhotiuk. And they could also have 8D on the roster or injuries could happen. But I think it’s a possibility. Maybe we should push more to trade him this off-season. And he doesn’t seem like Fitz’s type of player.

White is a UFA after this season so he could easily be gone.

Okhotiuk has two more years on his ELC after this so I think they’re taking their time with him. Bahl is still waiver exempt next season, as is Walsh.

I don’t see any waiver exempt prospect on the team as the 7-8 defenseman, they need to play and you can call them up if you want to see them. You should have some depth like that in the minors in case injuries start to pile up. That’s why you get a vet like Jaros or an aged-out prospect like White to sit in the stands.

Smith will also still be waiver exempt, but no, I don’t see him Utica. Bahl makes it interesting but he played 7 NHL games last year and 11 so far this year. Not sure that means he makes the team. It also depends on what Fitz does to replace Subban.

It does feel like Smith could be traded, I don’t subscribe to the idea that we shouldn’t because his value is low.

His youth gives him some value and it’s not going to go up a lot in short term even if he plays better next season (unless he plays wildly better, which I don’t think is too likely).

Graves is a UFA after 2022-23 though and his long term future might not be here, so Fitz might not be too eager to move a guy like Smith with longterm team control.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Smith was beyond awful for much of the season but has been decent over the last 20-25 games.

 

[McDuffz88]

Ty Smith must be shitting bricks knowing that they will look at advanced stats to help judge who deserves a spot or not . It has to be obvious that Smith got caved in most of the year .

You don't need advanced stats to know Smith is horrendous. Anyone with a pair of eyes can see it. The worst player on the team by a very large margin. I honestly don't have any hope for him & don't see how he has a future with us. I would rather keep Zacha then Smith.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

White is a UFA after this season so he could easily be gone.

Okhotiuk has two more years on his ELC after this so I think they’re taking their time with him. Bahl is still waiver exempt next season, as is Walsh.

I don’t see any waiver exempt prospect on the team as the 7-8 defenseman, they need to play and you can call them up if you want to see them. You should have some depth like that in the minors in case injuries start to pile up. That’s why you get a vet like Jaros or an aged-out prospect like White to sit in the stands.

Smith will also still be waiver exempt, but no, I don’t see him Utica. Bahl makes it interesting but he played 7 NHL games last year and 11 so far this year. Not sure that means he makes the team. It also depends on what Fitz does to replace Subban.

It does feel like Smith could be traded, I don’t subscribe to the idea that we shouldn’t because his value is low.

His youth gives him some value and it’s not going to go up a lot in short term even if he plays better next season (unless he plays wildly better, which I don’t think is too likely).

Graves is a UFA after 2022-23 though and his long term future might not be here, so Fitz might not be too eager to move a guy like Smith with longterm team control.

The thing is Bahl has been much better than Smith IMO after his first couple games and is exactly the type of defensmen Fitz loves. So if he keeps it up and has played 17 games to finish this season while being better than Ty Smith. He should have a shot at making the team next year over him if he is better in camp. They are the same age and while Smith was the higher pick and came out hot he shouldn’t be unpassable coming into next season if other young D are performing better.

Okhotiuk too although the sample size from this season will be much smaller. If he comes out and plays really well in the final 6 games, he should certainly have a shot at making the team next season. It will likely be the last season for these young D to show that they can be impactful NHL players and for the devils to really see what they have. Unless we don’t resign either of Severson or Graves (don’t want to resign) or replace them with anyone there will likely be a log jam on defense in 2023-24 with Hughes, Mukhammadullin, and maybe even a 2022 draft pick showing up. Smith shouldn’t get the 3LD spot by default based off of his draft position and strong rookie season and I hope he doesn’t. Let’s see him, Bahl and Okhotiuk fight it out.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

Smith was beyond awful for much of the season but has been decent over the last 20-25 games.

Has been a little better and shown some good flashes of his skill but he still hasn’t been close to good enough IMO.

 

[Eggtimer]

Smith

Big Question. Could Smith legitimately be at risk of not making the team out of training camp next season? Assuming Graves and Siegenthaler are back and we sign a veteran RD to replace Subban. If Bahl and Okhotiuk finish the season well I would think they will have a shot at making the team next season.

Siegenthaler Hamilton
Graves Severson
3LD 3RD(FA)
7D

So I’d imagine it could be a 3-5 way battle for that final LD spot and the 7th D spot.
Bahl, Okhotiuk, Smith, White(probably not), Walsh (shot at 7D?). Smith honestly could end up being the guy left out if he doesn’t figure things out. He’s looked better at times and certainly hasn’t been as bad as he was at the start. But it still hasn’t been good enough and if other young D come up and out perform him they deserve that spot more than him. Remains to be seen with Okhotiuk. And they could also have 8D on the roster or injuries could happen. But I think it’s a possibility. Maybe we should push more to trade him this off-season. And he doesn’t seem like Fitz’s type of player.

Smith “ should “ be considered one of the players that have to earn a spot with his play instead of his draft pedigree or his rookie season . If that is the case or not is to be seen . I’d really like if he is used as a trade asset . I just think he will be redundant and doesn’t bring enough to the table to be in the top 6

 

[Bad Goalie]

Fitzgerald has clearly shown a preference for bigger and more physical defensemen, so there's that.

Smith is still young enough and has the pedigree for reasonable trade value. Vancouver would be a nice destination, as they are desperate on the blueline and near the cap ceiling, which Smith's salary would be a nice fit into. Smith is also Western Canadian, which would improve the narrative even more.

I don't see anything at the NHL level which would interest the Devils out of Vancouver, but I'd gladly make the deal for Jett Woo and a 3rd round pick.

Rathbone is way better than Woo.