Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[NJDevs26]

Vitek is perfectly average, maybe slightly above average, which is what we needed. He was super good, and then it feel like market correction started to settle in. His last 12 or so games have been bad.

We just need him to be average to a little above average.

Long-term Vitek is probably a 1B unless he figures out how to maintain the level of his play from the first 30 or so games to a longer timeframe, and his contract more or less reflects that belief. But trying to hand the reins to Schmid based on eleven starts of his and the last seven of Vitek is the height of recency bias. We're talking about eleven games, people didn't think Schmid would ever be a legit NHL goalie last year and thought Daws would be our long-term based on his first ten starts - now he's struggling in the AHL.

 

[Triumph]

1. The Devils paid Hamilton $9 million per, which Carolina could not afford last season. When Carolina made the Kotkaniemi deal they paid him $6.1 million. They then couldn't come to terms with their then-27 year old all-star defenseman and fit him under the cap. So they let him go and acquired Tony DeAngelo at $4.8 million. Essentially, they let a Norris-caliber D go so they could spend $2 million more on a low-compete, replacement-level forward and a borderline AHL-caliber defenseman with mental problems. Carolina's upset loss to the Rangers in last years' playoffs was greatly influenced by the almost jarringly awful play of both DeAngelo and Kotkaniemi in the series. But boy, did they stick it to those Canadiens!

Sigh. Again, you are very good at projecting false reasons for why people do things, but the problem with your logic on this one is that the timeline is all wrong. Dougie Hamilton signed here in July 2021 and the Kotkaniemi offer sheet was not made for another month. They chose not to re-sign Hamilton first - it wouldn't even be clear that Kotkaniemi would be available when they made the final offer to Hamilton.

Their final offer to Hamilton was 8 years/50M, the Devils offered 7 years/63M. It wasn't even close.

2. So, Kotkaniemi centers Carolina's 2nd line wingers and the 2nd PP, but he's somehow not their 2nd line center. I see. Hm.

He does not play 2nd line minutes.

3. Some solid reasoning that the Pacioretty trade was not risky because he played 80 out of 138 games. Well, now it's going to be 83 out of 220 games. When can we call him injury prone?

Lots and lots of players miss 30% of the games in two years at Pacioretty's age and go on to be perfectly fine. Pacioretty may have played his final game in the NHL. It's bad luck, plain and simple - to think he would play all 82 might be naive, but to think his career would end? Not buying it.

4. Fitzgerald absolutely deserves a world of credit for acquiring an all-star forward in Timo Meier without giving up any of his top 3 non-NHL assets (Hughes, Nemec, Holtz). No one expected this.

It all comes down to how you rate Holtz, but neither Hughes nor Nemec would ever be included in a deal like this. It would not surprise me if San Jose passed on Holtz in this deal.

Look, I appreciate you trying to defend the Carolina management. They deserve kudos for hiring a great coaching staff, cultivating a great atmosphere around their arena, and drafting exceptionally well year in and year out. But my point was many of their personnel decisions over the past two years have been remarkably poor. I said I liked the Burns deal when they made it and the Puljujarvi deal wasn't half bad. But let's face it, the Kotkaniemi deal was made strictly to stick it to Montreal in revenge of the Aho offer sheet, and the fallout from this childish move and the refusal to move on from it has greatly hurt the team's Stanley Cup chances. I don't see how this argument is triggering in any way.

I just don't think that it was motivated primarily by revenge, and even if it was, a player isn't signed to an 8 year deal out of revenge.

Regardless, the Svechnikov injury likely takes the Hurricanes out of any realistic Cup contention this year, so we'll never know. I don't legitimately see how they are going to get by the Rangers in the first round of the playoffs, to be perfectly honest.

If you can't see that, you don't remember how playoff hockey works. Anyone can get by anyone. If they end up playing the Rangers, it's going to take Shesterkin being great, because I think the Rangers poor defense will get eaten alive by the Carolina forecheck.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

In his last 12 games Vitek has allowed 36 goals on 28 xGA (-8 GSAx) with a .890 sv% and a 3.04 GAA.

If you take his last 7, he has allowed 24 goals on 15.12 xGA (-8.88 GSAx) with a .862 sv% and a 3.59 GAA.

Devils goalie stats for the team’s last 20 games

So based on the stats above he had a GSAx of .88 in those first 5 games or .176 GSAx per game...that is still below average for a starter.

I'm not sure why people are still using sv% when GSAx and other great metrics are available.

Edit: I have been using moneypuck so my assumption on GSAx could be slightly off.

 

[Devs3cups]

That's the point...the 'last twelve games' has been heavily influenced by the last seven. It's okay to say he's had seven games where he's mostly been bad, you don't have to tack on more games which actually increase his numbers to make this sound like a longer sag than it has been.

As I said earlier, I didn’t do that on purpose. I went on NST and filtered by the team’s last 20 games. Vitek has played 12 of those 20 games and the results are what they are. I just didn’t check every single game. I didn’t do it on purpose to rag on Vitek. I love the guy and want him to succeed. I tend to be pretty positive about our guys as most know.

I have no problem saying he’s been fine the 5 games before the last 7, but the fact still remains that he’s been bad lately, whether you look at his xGA or GAA and SV%. It is what it is.

 

[bigd]

Blackwood was horrible in the AHL, particularly in year two. His best year there was his first year.

It’s more than possible that Blackwood just isn’t any good, wasn’t going to be any good, and those first two years of NHL play from him were more of the exception. Those were his only particularly good seasons in his pro career. His first year in the AHL was decent.

I think it was his heel.

Schmid may be better than Vanecek, yes.

Here’s how I’d rank them

Blackwood: BAD

Vanecek: AVERAGE

Schmid: ?

Blackwood's always on IR, I'd give him an incomplete.
Either he's injury prone or he won't play with a hangnail.
Either way he needs to find his game somewhere else!

 

[Clam Jensen]

I know we’re all losing our minds after losing to one of the best teams in hockey over the past ten years while in the midst of quite possibly the best devils regular season in the history of the world (and I would post this in the football thread, but it’s locked), but Gmen making moves! Okereke and Waller (if healthy) is massive.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Last 7 games:
Vanecek: -.82 GSAA/60 and -5.49 GSAA
Previous 5 games:
Vanecek: -.04 GSAA/60 and -0.23 GSAA

NHL goaltenders with atleast 1000 min:
30 goaltenders with a GSAA/60 above -.04

 

[Devs3cups]

I know we’re all losing our minds after losing to one of the best teams in hockey over the past ten years while in the midst of quite possibly the best devils regular season in the history of the world (and I would post this in the football thread, but it’s locked), but Gmen making moves! Okereke and Waller (if healthy) is massive.

We really are a fickle bunch lol. We’re getting so used to winning this year, that losing 1-2-3 straight games sends the board in a complete downwards spiral when it happens to every team every year. Part of the game and has no effect on the team’s global performance and/or identity.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Last 7 games:
Vanecek: -.82 GSAA/60 and -5.49 GSAA
Previous 5 games:
Vanecek: -.04 GSAA/60 and -0.23 GSAA

NHL goaltenders with atleast 1000 min:
30 goaltenders with a GSAA/60 above -.04

I don’t think anyone would say he’s been good lately? He’s been completely fine overall on the season as a whole. He’s a .908 goalie this year just as he was in his first two seasons.

We don’t have an elite goalie, not exactly a newsflash. Schmid has been awesome, but there’s absolutely not enough data to think he’s a number 1. Luckily this team is good enough to beat plenty of teams getting “fine” goaltending. It just can’t be horrible. Colorado won it all with Kuemper being a .902 goalie in the playoffs.

 

[Clam Jensen]

We really are a fickle bunch lol. We’re getting so used to winning this year, that losing 1-2-3 straight games sends the board in a complete downwards spiral when it happens to every team every year. Part of the game and has no effect on the team’s global performance and/or identity.

I know it’s because we’re all so beaten down from the past decade and passionate, but we have to retrain ourselves on how to root for a really good team again lol.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

I don’t think anyone would say he’s been good lately? He’s been completely fine overall on the season as a whole. He’s a .908 goalie this year just as he was in his first two seasons.

We don’t have an elite goalie, not exactly a newsflash. Schmid has been awesome, but there’s absolutely not enough data to think he’s a number 1. Luckily this team is good enough to beat plenty of teams getting “fine” goaltending. It just can’t be horrible. Colorado won it all with Kuemper being a .902 goalie in the playoffs.

All I am saying is run with the hot hand. Vanecek lost the benefit of the doubt to start 3 of every 5 games.

 

[theoptimist]

I mean Dougie has his issues but you gotta be really picky to think a guy who's going to set the all-time team record for goals and be second all-time in points for a season by a defenseman is somehow a net negative even with whatever mistakes he makes on the other end.

Same movie, different perspective.

He's certainly having a massive year.

 

[Saugus]

We really are a fickle bunch lol. We’re getting so used to winning this year, that losing 1-2-3 straight games sends the board in a complete downwards spiral when it happens to every team every year. Part of the game and has no effect on the team’s global performance and/or identity.

I'm glad I missed the game last night. I was planning to turn it on in progress, but then I checked the box score, saw it was 4-1, and decided to pass.

As a result, I'm still feeling good from the win against the former Whalers.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

Hamilton, Hughes and Bratt are tough cases. Analytically they are massive positives. From a team perspective, how can you expect the team to play a certain way when you have different standards for the star players. You would have to go back to the 80's to find a team constructed quite like NJ.

 

[bigd]

All I am saying is run with the hot hand. Vanecek lost the benefit of the doubt to start 3 of every 5 games.

We aren't going to win many games 1 to 0. Our goalies aren't going to steal many games.
We need to score 3 to 4 goals a game to win consistently.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Hamilton, Hughes and Bratt are tough cases. Analytically they are massive positives. From a team perspective, how can you expect the team to play a certain way when you have different standards for the star players. You would have to go back to the 80's to find a team constructed quite like NJ.

Maybe I'm giving them too much credit, but I believe professional athletes understand that playing to maximize their individual talents looks different for each player. I think Erik Haula understands why he would be asked to play differently than Jack Hughes. That doesn't mean you want Hughes to be a sieve (which he is not), but I'm much more comfortable with allowing the special players in your lineup to be special than I am with forcing them to play like a checking line. I think the coaching staff has done a great job of developing a system that lets them do that.

 

[guitarguyvic]

I mean Dougie has his issues but you gotta be really picky to think a guy who's going to set the all-time team record for goals and be second all-time in points for a season by a defenseman is somehow a net negative even with whatever mistakes he makes on the other end.

Dougie is definitely not a net negative, but at this point in the season, his really bad D and high risk style of play is a valid concern for the playoffs. He may very well not have the space and freedom to produce at the same rate he did in the regular season. If an opponent can manage to shut him down over the course of a series, he absolutely would wind up being a net negative.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

All I am saying is run with the hot hand. Vanecek lost the benefit of the doubt to start 3 of every 5 games.

They should be splitting starts the rest of the way simply because Vitek is already at a career high in games played and we don’t have a ton to play for anyway. We should be giving other players strategic days off too. All that matters is that they’re fresh and clicking for the playoffs.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

They should be splitting starts the rest of the way simply because Vitek is already at a career high in games played and we don’t have a ton to play for anyway. We should be giving other players strategic days off too. All that matters is that they’re fresh and clicking for the playoffs.

Agreed, the schedule is quite congested. I would take this opportunity to get some younger players some starts. Nemec, Holtz, Clarke and Hughes (when he gets here). The 4th for Lazar was worth it for that reason alone.

 

[Call Me Al]

lazar was needed because with bastian and/or wood out we still need a big physical body, it doesn’t help us to have boqvist or sharangovich on line 4 and losing zetterlund is a loss in that regard

at least it wasn’t a 5th or 6th rounder though we seem to have better luck there anyway!

 

[tailfins]

Hamilton, Hughes and Bratt are tough cases. Analytically they are massive positives. From a team perspective, how can you expect the team to play a certain way when you have different standards for the star players. You would have to go back to the 80's to find a team constructed quite like NJ.

This is why I don't think the Devils win this year.

The Devils will ultimately succeed / fail based on Hughes. He's our MacKinnon, Crosby, etc. I know Nico is captain, but Hughes is the example that people will ultimately follow. If Jack commits to winning by paying attention to details, I think you'll see the entire team play better.

 

[njdevil26]

I am not really upset at all about the loss last night... but I kind of feel like a moron because apparently I don't understand goaltender interference? Tatar was guided into Vasy and had no avenue to get out of the way.

The call on the ice was a goal which makes it even more ridiculous considering you'd need definitive evidence to overturn it.

The game changed completely after that call.

 

[forceten]

There is literally nothing to complain about with the Lazar acquisition. He's a great dude, he plays hard, he's a solid insert into the 4th lines, and playoffs don't ever leave a team 100% healthy. We lost Zetterlund to acquire Meier and we needed someone who could play that kind of game. 4th round pick is a 4th round pick. Lazar in the 4th round would be one heck of a pick. So...

Hamilton is one of the best offensive defensemen in the game today and there's no argument there. He definitely isn't as fast as some defenders, he doesn't play certain defensive plays particularly well. That's the pro and con with an offensive defenseman. Sometimes (and I'm guilty of it too occasionally folks) we forget that we were spoiled because we had hall of fame caliber players on our team, all at once. Arguably the best goaltender to play the game (And without question top 5). Scott f'ing Niedermayer as our NUMBER TWO. Can't compare that. I'll take Hamilton over Gostisbehere defensively AND offensively. We pair players like this with defense-first guys for a reason. There's a reason Ken Daneyko's number is hanging in the rafters at the arena - it's not because he drank with half the fanbase (including my cousin) at the Verona Inn. It's because he was an excellent defense-first defenseman that could pair with a more mobile defenseman and help keep the unit stable. AND also that he drank with people at the Verona Inn. When he drank. Which he doesn't anymore.

Vitek Vanacek was never going to be a true #1 and we all said it I think in the trade thread when we acquired him. The celebration as one or two posters noted earlier in this thread was that we'd have an NHL average goalie. The problem? He's performed ABOVE NHL average most of the season. But he's had some trouble spots. This is definitely one of them. The good news: He acknowledges it. He's really great with his instagram game and I loved that he celebrated getting back to form after beating Hartford the other night. Akira Schmid was lambasted here when he struggled and was said to not even be our top goalie prospect. Now he's the savior? We have backup quarterback syndrome with goalies, and I understand it because we had not one but two super elite goaltenders over the last 30 years and only recently lost that moxy. But... we don't have the solution yet. It's a legitimate concern but arguing with each other doesn't solve it.

Living here in Carolina the last ten years I can tell you, without hesitation or question, the acquisition of Jesperi Kotkaniemi was petty and motivated by revenge. He was projected to be a great player but they went after a Montreal player because they were livid about Aho. Aho was and is the face of the franchise. I still think after next season he bolts... sadly, he doesn't seem committed here. And this fanbase is RABID. Don Waddell has always been a hot/cold GM. His days with the Thrashers weren't stellar but I also at the same time don't think he's as abysmal as some. He's NHL Average? See what I did there? You're not reading this, it's too long. Guttersniped's posts are better because she has better stats and facts and I'm just old and half dementia-addled. But I thought it was cute to stick that in there. Well, maybe I'll think to do it in the top of my posts so someone reads it. Oh, I also wanted to talk to you all about your car's extended warranty.

 

[Clam Jensen]

That hit Lazar put on Hedman was beautiful. If you watch the replay in slo-mo you can see him whisper in Viktor’s ear “Nico’s balls send their regards”.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]