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Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

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guitarguyvic

guitarguyvic

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Mar 31, 2010
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Zajacs Bowl Cut said:
Heat maps are not "up to interpretation" though. They are literally showing where chances/shots/goals come from on the ice. Is that not a fact? If you don't think so, I guess we have different definitions of what a fact is.

There is also a literal definition of high-danger chances:




Natural Stat Trick - Glossary

www.naturalstattrick.com
Click to expand...
The heat map yes, obviously that's just showing where a given shot comes from and that's not really up to interpretation.

I understand that someone came up with a definition for "high danger". That doesn't mean it's a good one or one that does the most accurate job of determining the most dangerous chances. It's an interpretation of how dangerous a given shot is. That is not a "fact".
 
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glenwo2

glenwo2

JESPER BRATWURST
Oct 18, 2008
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Zajacs Bowl Cut said:
Click to expand...

7d1bim.gif
 
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Triumph

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Oct 2, 2007
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tailfins said:
Fair.

Though, I thought of it more as the criticism of the Rangers: they are a bad team that relied on Shesterkin and a powerplay. But that formula won a lot. If you have an all world goalie and an excellent powerplay, do you care about winning 5v5 possession? Does having poor 5v5 possession stats necessarily mean you are a bad team?
Click to expand...

The reason to care about this is being shown now for the Rangers - Shesterkin is not all-world this year and the team has fallen off some, even as it has gotten better 5v5 outcomes. Assuming that your goalie is going to be the best in the world for multiple years is a bad way to build a team.

tailfins said:
Similar, there was the criticism of the Isles in prior years: unsustainable goaltending. When that goaltending was delivered by ~3 different goalies (Greiss, Lehner, and Varlamov), was it unsustainable? (Perhaps this was your point about the trap)
Click to expand...

You're misremembering the debates about the Islanders but that's fine - they had unsustainable goaltending for that first season for sure. They played very good defense and were legit good in the bubble and the COVID season. It didn't really last, and they're okay now, but they're still very much overrated on the basis of playoff wins.

tailfins said:
These are areas where outcomes differed from the prevailing thinking. You'd think that these would be areas where people would look at data to explain why this could happen. But, mostly, these were identified as anomalies.
Click to expand...

I have no idea what your point is about the Rangers - everybody acknowledges that having incredible goaltending solves a lot of problems. It's not a way to build a team, though. The Sabres were legit bad throughout Hasek's career and they were a playoff team most years because of Hasek. The Rangers were an okay team that got great goaltending and they turned out to be division winners. It's not rocket science.

The Islanders had two 100 point seasons under Trotz - what are they teaching me, exactly? Again, teams have won like the Islanders before and will again, they didn't invent some secret winning formula. I wrote them off after losing Tavares but it turns out they had a lot of decent players there and Barzal is real good, the defense solidified, Trotz is a good coach, they never got bad goaltending, and that's how they ended up where they are at.

tailfins said:
To me, data / analytics are best used to identify ideas that are provocative / that challenge the status quo. The typical response from the establishment is to call the information subjective and to talk about how it doesn't apply.
Click to expand...

I don't think I would say this - data can also be used to explain why certain things are happening.
 
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Sdevils42

Sdevils42

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Nov 30, 2016
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Obv disappointed to see Meier out again tn but think that's the right call. Getting over an injury and giving him more time to practice with the boys before unveiling him at home on Tuesday, good call. Speaks to the depth of NJ not "needing" him like our cross river rivalries needed 88 to play savior, couldn't resist the jab.
 
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JimEIV

JimEIV

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Feb 19, 2003
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Triumph said:
The reason to care about this is being shown now for the Rangers - Shesterkin is not all-world this year and the team has fallen off some, even as it has gotten better 5v5 outcomes. Assuming that your goalie is going to be the best in the world for multiple years is a bad way to build a team.



You're misremembering the debates about the Islanders but that's fine - they had unsustainable goaltending for that first season for sure. They played very good defense and were legit good in the bubble and the COVID season. It didn't really last, and they're okay now, but they're still very much overrated on the basis of playoff wins.



I have no idea what your point is about the Rangers - everybody acknowledges that having incredible goaltending solves a lot of problems. It's not a way to build a team, though. The Sabres were legit bad throughout Hasek's career and they were a playoff team most years because of Hasek. The Rangers were an okay team that got great goaltending and they turned out to be division winners. It's not rocket science.

The Islanders had two 100 point seasons under Trotz - what are they teaching me, exactly? Again, teams have won like the Islanders before and will again, they didn't invent some secret winning formula. I wrote them off after losing Tavares but it turns out they had a lot of decent players there and Barzal is real good, the defense solidified, Trotz is a good coach, they never got bad goaltending, and that's how they ended up where they are at.



I don't think I would say this - data can also be used to explain why certain things are happening.
Click to expand...
Why does this buffalo was only a playoff team because of Hasek get perpetuated? It was never true

LaFontaine, Andreychuk, Mogilny, Hawerchuck...yeah the year they had a deep run Hasek was key with not a lot of star power but for the life me I don't understand why people act like Hasek never had anything to work with Buffalo.

It's simply not true.
 

pulkit1989

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Nov 16, 2011
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probably just dreaming but I really really wish bratt and meier are signed before the start of playoffs so all that contract chatter is done with and they go into playoffs fully motivated
 

Triumph

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Oct 2, 2007
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JimEIV said:
Why does this buffalo was only a playoff team because of Hasek get perpetuated? It was never true

LaFontaine, Andreychuk, Mogilny, Hawerchuck...yeah the year they had a deep run Hasek was key with not a lot of star power but for the life me I don't understand why people act like Hasek never had anything to work with Buffalo.

It's simply not true.
Click to expand...

Dominik Hasek was the starter in Buffalo from 93-94 to 2000-01. That's 8 years. Andreychuk never finished a season on the Sabres with Hasek as the starting goalie, he was traded in 92-93. Lafontaine played 38 out of 132 games between 93 and 95, played one full season, and then missed nearly the entire season next year - let's be generous and call that two full seasons. Mogilny was traded away in 95 - he played two full seasons. Hawerchuk missed half of 95 injured, he played 1 1/2 seasons with Hasek as the starter. There was no year where all of the players you mentioned played for the team and Hasek was the starter. Lafontaine missed the 94 playoffs. Hawerchuk only managed 2 games of the 95 playoffs.

If I had to guess, I'd say the reason why people say Hasek never had anything to work with in Buffalo is because it is true.
 
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