Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

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Zajacs Bowl Cut

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Exactly..... So if someone says something, then they get shown a stat (that you just admitted) doesn't take everything into account, is that ok to say now?

"Thats why they are all pieces of information. None are all encompassing, but all are important." I've seen this said to you and a couple others in EVERY discussion, I'm glad you finally get it.

I don't even know what you're arguing anymore man. This is tiring at this point.

this whole thing started because STI said that JFresh is an idiot (something along those lines, don't remember if that was the exact quote). Nowhere have I ever said that there is any stat that takes everything into account.
 

britdevil

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hold-stonk-hold.gif
 

Billdo

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Elias posted a story of what looks like him shooting pucks at an empty net for Meier to try tipping in.

Not sure that’s a good sign for him playing tonight or not? Either way, very cool to see Elias there and that involved right now.
I'd just wait for Tuesday against Toronto tbh. Home game, first game, big game, it'll be electric.
 
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NHL Fanatik

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Its deadline day were supposed to be working the phones not each other's arses

Any word on Meier and tonight's game? I dont have twitter lol
 

Devs3cups

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Elias posted a story of what looks like him shooting pucks at an empty net for Meier to try tipping in.

Not sure that’s a good sign for him playing tonight or not? Either way, very cool to see Elias there and that involved right now.
That’s a cool little moment!
 

Devs3cups

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Id also rather have Timo wait til he is 100% before playing
I highly doubt they’ll play him if he isn’t 100%. Same thing happened with Jack. Ruff is talking about giving guys rest days, I don’t see why he’d play guys who are still injured.
 
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tailfins

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The problem is that nothing takes everything into account. One's memory is only so good - mine can only remember the last 20 times on this board I've had this boring discussion. Those are just what the numbers say, take them or leave them - there's always room for disagreement. The numbers are the numbers.

Veganism is often a moral choice. Some people think analytics are a moral choice. I don't, it's just a way for me to see the game better; I feel like I understand the game a lot better now that I'm paying attention to what's important.
I don't really mean to get into this discussion, but it is funny to me to see veganism qualified as a "moral" choice when there's tons of data to support why it's "better".

Note: I am not a vegan and am not advocating for it. Just interesting to see something from a different space that's backed by analytics called basically subjective, while the argument for hockey is that there's some underlying fundamental truth to the data.
 

TrufleShufle

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I don't really mean to get into this discussion, but it is funny to me to see veganism qualified as a "moral" choice when there's tons of data to support why it's "better".

Note: I am not a vegan and am not advocating for it. Just interesting to see something from a different space that's backed by analytics called basically subjective, while the argument for hockey is that there's some underlying fundamental truth to the data.
Leave my burgers alone, nerd.
 

Triumph

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I don't really mean to get into this discussion, but it is funny to me to see veganism qualified as a "moral" choice when there's tons of data to support why it's "better".

Note: I am not a vegan and am not advocating for it. Just interesting to see something from a different space that's backed by analytics called basically subjective, while the argument for hockey is that there's some underlying fundamental truth to the data.

I said veganism is often a moral choice. To bring this around to hockey, what you're talking about is something more like playing styles - playing trapping defensive hockey might be no fun to play or watch, but if it wins games, then so be it. Some coaches didn't want to coach that way.
 

StevenToddIves

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like, I enjoy STI's posts, he watches more prospects than I ever will or care to. I appreciate what he does for this board. But, and I mean this as respectable as possible, I don't think he has the best handle on the current state of players around the league, to be honest. And most of his opinions on current players seem to be skewed by his draft takes.

And to say "JFresh is an idiot" or whatever it was he said is simply ridiculous to me. Again, if you don't like the information and don't care to use it, thats totally fine. But don't disrespect others who do find it informative.
I enjoy your posts, as well. And just FYI I don't call JFresh an idiot, but I do call out Byron Bader -- who is most certainly not smart or insightful in any way concerning hockey -- for a lack of intelligence. Even this I should amend, Bader is extremely shrewd when it comes to finding suckers to make a buck off of.

Your view of my opinions on current players is most certainly something you're entitled to.

Go back and read STI's posts. You will see the anti-analytics manifesto written out perfectly right there. Nobody in sports says they're against statistics, because goals and assists are also statistics and they've heard that gambit before. And enough sports teams have won championships giving credit to 'analytics' and whatever that it's hard to just flat out say 'this has no value'. So instead the argument is 'Well, I'd believe the numbers, but they're missing A, B, and C', and what that boils down to is 'I believe the numbers when they support me, and I don't believe them when they don't.' In which case, the numbers are adding absolutely nothing at all. If you can't ever look at statistical-based arguments and think you've got something turned upside down about the way you think about something, then you don't and never will believe in 'analytics' or anything like that. Which makes you, definitionally, anti-analytics.
Dude, "manifesto"?
 

guitarguyvic

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YOU think JFresh is bad. I think his information is actually quite useful. Why does your opinion reign supreme? Its honestly super weird how against him that you are.

The only people who continually argue about "analytics are not the be-all end-all" are people like you who choose to tear them down. People that enjoy and support analytics in sports NEVER say that they are the be-all, end-all. I've never seen one person say this.

Lou sucks and has sucked for a decade now. I don't know what he has to do with anything.
Well yeah no one is going to outright admit that they are doing something like this, but it is without a doubt implied by how those folks respond to any questioning of the analytics being presented.

How many times have you and others posted xG or heat maps and heaven forbid someone expresses skepticism of the measurement with questions about how it doesn't seem to be capturing x,y, and z element and your response is a snarky dismissal..."it's just showing the facts, I gUeSs YoU dOn'T bEliEvE iN fAcTs LOLOL".

Well Mr. Snarkypants, it's not just simply facts, it's actually an interpretation of how meaningful or impactful any given action/event within the game was. That's what makes it "analytics"...a fact is team X took 20 shots (which by the way is not even a fact itself in the strictest terms considering that the manner in which its recorded is somewhat subjective, but I digress). Interpreting which of those shots are "high danger" is the part that makes it "analytics". You are conflating that interpretation with "fact". It is not a fact. And the problem here is that some of us look at that interpretation and it doesn't seem to pass the smell test from an observational standpoint. And your dismissive response to that potential skepticism absolutely does scream "these analytics are the end all be all".

Now, our observations are not the end-all be-all either. We should treat those with a healthy dose of skepticism as well. But if there is a large chasm between how I interpret what I'm observing in the actual game vs. what a specific analytics model is spitting out, then that absolutely should be questioned. Not with the goal to dismiss the analytics, but with the goal to understand why that chasm exists, and determine if there's a shortcoming from one or both of them that needs to be looked into and addressed. If you took this approach, you wouldn't react to skepticism with dismissiveness, you'd take the time to address the specific questions or criticisms and if the analytics don't have an answer for the question/criticism, you'd acknowledge that without defensiveness. But that's not what you do.

I understand there are people on the opposite side of the spectrum who think what they observe with their eyes is all that matters and any analytics that contradict that must be useless. Those folks have made themselves abundantly present in recent times with their never-ceasing sarcastic quips about heat maps and pie charts whenever the Devils are losing a game. But please, don't act like you are not on the flip side of this coin.
 
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Zajacs Bowl Cut

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Heat maps are not "up to interpretation" though. They are literally showing where chances/shots/goals come from on the ice. Is that not a fact? If you don't think so, I guess we have different definitions of what a fact is.

There is also a literal definition of high-danger chances:

1677872418974.png

  • Attempts from the yellow areas are assigned a value of 1, attempts from the red areas are assigned a value of 2, and attempts in the green area are assigned a value of 3.
    Add 1 to this value if the attempt is considered a rush shot or a rebound. A rebound is any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between. A rush shot is any attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without a stoppage in play in between (originally defined by David Johnson on the now-offline Hockey Analysis, and modified to 4 seconds by War-on-Ice).
    Decrease this value by 1 if it was a blocked shot.
    Any attempt with a score of 2 or higher is considered a scoring chance.
    • SCF - Count of Scoring Chances for the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • SCA - Count of Scoring Chances against the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • SCF% - Percentage of total Scoring Chances while that combination of players is on the ice that are for the selected team. SCF*100/(SCF+SCA)
  • High Danger Scoring Chances- a scoring chance with a score of 3 or higher.
    • HDCF - Count of High Danger Scoring Chances for the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • HDCA - Count of High Danger Scoring Chances against the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • HDCF% - Percentage of total High Danger Scoring Chances while that combination of players is on the ice that are for the selected team. HDCF*100/(HDCF+HDCA)
  • High Danger Goals- goals generated from High Danger Scoring Chances
    • HDGF - Count of Goals off of High Danger Scoring Chances for the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • HDGA - Count of Goals off of High Danger Scoring Chances against the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • HDGF% - Percentage of total Goals off of High Danger Scoring Chances while that combination of players is on the ice that are for the selected team. HDGF*100/(HDGF+HDGA)
  • Medium Danger Scoring Chances- a scoring chance with a score of exactly 2.
    • MDCF - Count of Medium Danger Scoring Chances for the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • MDCA - Count of Medium Danger Scoring Chances against the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • MDCF% - Percentage of total Medium Danger Scoring Chances while that combination of players is on the ice that are for the selected team. MDCF*100/(MDCF+MDCA)
  • Medium Danger Goals- goals generated from Medium Danger Scoring Chances
    • MDGF - Count of Goals off of Medium Danger Scoring Chances for the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • MDGA - Count of Goals off of Medium Danger Scoring Chances against the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • MDGF% - Percentage of total Goals off of Medium Danger Scoring Chances while that combination of players is on the ice that are for the selected team. MDGF*100/(MDGF+MDGA)
  • Low Danger Scoring Chances- a scoring chance with a score of 1 or less. Does not include any attempts from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zone.
    • LDCF - Count of Low Danger Scoring Chances for the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • LDCA - Count of Low Danger Scoring Chances against the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • LDCF% - Percentage of total Low Danger Scoring Chances while that combination of players is on the ice that are for the selected team. LDCF*100/(LDCF+LDCA)
  • Low Danger Goals- goals generated from Low Danger Scoring Chances
    • LDGF - Count of Goals off of Low Danger Scoring Chances for the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • LDGA - Count of Goals off of Low Danger Scoring Chances against the selected team while that combination of players is on the ice.
    • LDGF% - Percentage of total Goals off of Low Danger Scoring Chances while that combination of players is on the ice that are for the selected team. LDGF*100/(LDGF+LDGA)


 
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SteveCangialosi123

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Are we happy with this depth going into the playoffs?

LW
Meier
Tatar
Palat
Sharangovich
Wood
Foote

C
Hischier
Hughes
Haula
McLeod
Lazar

RW:
Bratt
Mercer
Boqvist
Bastian
Holtz
Thompson

LD
Siegenthaler
Graves
Bahl
Smith
Hughes

RD
Hamilton
Marino
Severson
Nemec

G
Vanacek
Blackwood
Schmid
I think Fitz has done all he needed to do. It would be nice to get Blackwood off the roster for a cheaper goalie that isn’t glass but I don’t see anyone available.
 

tailfins

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I said veganism is often a moral choice. To bring this around to hockey, what you're talking about is something more like playing styles - playing trapping defensive hockey might be no fun to play or watch, but if it wins games, then so be it. Some coaches didn't want to coach that way.

Fair.

Though, I thought of it more as the criticism of the Rangers: they are a bad team that relied on Shesterkin and a powerplay. But that formula won a lot. If you have an all world goalie and an excellent powerplay, do you care about winning 5v5 possession? Does having poor 5v5 possession stats necessarily mean you are a bad team?

Similar, there was the criticism of the Isles in prior years: unsustainable goaltending. When that goaltending was delivered by ~3 different goalies (Greiss, Lehner, and Varlamov), was it unsustainable? (Perhaps this was your point about the trap)

These are areas where outcomes differed from the prevailing thinking. You'd think that these would be areas where people would look at data to explain why this could happen. But, mostly, these were identified as anomalies.

To me, data / analytics are best used to identify ideas that are provocative / that challenge the status quo. The typical response from the establishment is to call the information subjective and to talk about how it doesn't apply.

Similar to veganism. Vegan food may get you all the nutrition you need, have the ability to deliver a wide range of flavors and textures, and be better for the planet, but if I didn't grow up with it, I think it's ok for other people, just not something that's right for me.
 

Saugus

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Ya, that's weird that he couches it as if a Bratt (or even Meier) extension were in any way dependent on the trade deadline.

I would prefer Fitz turn his attention to that right after the deadline passes, but I wasn't expecting it today.
 

Azathoth

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Are we happy with this depth going into the playoffs?

LW
Meier
Tatar
Palat
Sharangovich
Wood
Foote

C
Hischier
Hughes
Haula
McLeod
Lazar

RW:
Bratt
Mercer
Boqvist
Bastian
Holtz
Thompson

LD
Siegenthaler
Graves
Bahl
Smith
Hughes

RD
Hamilton
Marino
Severson
Nemec

G
Vanacek
Blackwood
Schmid
I'd say looking at that lineup, the xHappiness looks pretty good, but knowing this place the aHappiness leaves a bit to be desired. We'll see if the eye test matches up.
 
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