Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[Guttersniped]

Here’s the Haula with Hughes and Bratt, with stats for both the whole year and after Dec 6.

For people who all these stats are TL;DR, the line was an absolute possession monster that never scored enough.

Spoiler: Haula-Hughes-Bratt line 5v5

HAULA-HUGHES-BRATT
ALL SEASON:

HAULA-HUGHES-BRATT
AFTER DECEMBER 6th:

Jack and Haula also played with Mercer quite a bit.

This was opposite as it was quite productive, due to it’s smoking shooting %.

This was a dynamic line but pretty loosey goosey defensively and eventually died when the GA were becoming a problem.

Haula is hard working player but he isn’t Bergeron, he doesn’t cure defensive problems on lines by himself.

Also Mercer and Haula didn’t do well together without Jack, so I’m not particularly eager to move Mercer from Hischier’s line to Haula’s either.

Spoiler: Haula-Hughes-Mercer 5v5

HAULA-HUGHES-MERCER
ALL SEASON:

HAULA-HUGHES-MERCER
AFTER DECEMBER 6th:

And then there’s Sharangovich-Hughes-Bratt.

As you can see this line mostly played after December 6th and it did not go well.

Poor defensive numbers (including giving up a lot of quality shots), poor On-Ice Shooting %, terrible On-Ice SV%, it had it all it terms of things going wrong.

Spoiler: Sharangovich-Hughes-Bratt

SHARANGOVICH-HUGHES-BRATT
ALL SEASON:

SHARANGOVICH-HUGHES-BRATT
AFTER DECEMBER 7th:

This is pretty time consuming and I’m tired, and I don’t want to get completely lost in the weeds, so I’m stopping here but the lesson here is there isn’t any obvious solutions.

I don’t know why anyone would think it’s easy to find the great line combinations and Ruff is somehow making obvious mistakes that’s preventing him from doing that.

I would like to keep Meier up with our top guys longer, let them cook as it were.

You can have guys who shoot the puck a lot together, usually guys like that are split up to spread the wealth, not because they can’t function together. (Bergeron/Pasta, Matthews/Nylander, etc.) Top offensive guys shoot the puck a lot.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

Tatar-Hischier-Meier
Palat-Hughes-Holtz
Bratt-Boqvist-Mercer
Foote-McLeod-Bastian

That actually looks pretty solid for next year

 

[Eggtimer]

He got a huge ovation when they announced the starting lineups and I forgot what skaters were even in the starting lineups for them. I'd assume guys like Barkov and Ekblad, who have been there forever are the big favorites, as well as Tkachuk, who seems to be a huge favorite already.

I heard someone yell ''Bring back Huby!'' near me last night in the 3rd period. It was kind of funny.

After Let's Go Devils chants, there was a ''JACK HUGHES SUCKS!'' from one dude a couple of times. Of course legendary Panthers hating ball buster @Cage Helmet yelled ''BOB'S CONTRACT SUCKS MORE!'' lol.

I would bet for the most part people aren't happy about his deal, but like I said, goalies are overrated and become fan favorites even when they're not good or hurting the team with their stupid contract and mediocre play. But one thing I'll point out again is that he is the highest profile free agent to ever agree to sign there. They've had other big names by trade, but not in free agency they haven't. So that might have a lot to do with it.

One other touch during the American national anthem is the chant of ''KNIGHT!'' after the ''Gave proof through the night'' line. They also scream RED! during ''rockets red glare''.

I'm guessing that's a KNIGHT chant. Noticed it last time too.

I guess that most Panthers fans , or at least casual fans have no idea what Bobs contract is and how terrible it is .

 

[Guttersniped]

Reminds me of how so many people were criticizing Erik Haula earlier in the year on here.

Yet now there are excuses being made for Jack and Jesper while Jesper Boqvist and Timo Meier are flourishing.

And on a related note, perhaps it's time to use two (or three) power play units rather than stretching one unit for 1:45 (or longer).

Also, haven't seen it mentioned here, but last night's game seemed to show that Miles Wood and Nate Bastian may be more valuable than the analytics crowd will admit?

Last night the 2 5v5 goals were scored on the Boqvist-Haula-Meier, with Barkov’s PP goal in-between. The line also scored.

That’s what happened.

It was a team loss, no lines did particularly well.

Florida is a very good possession team and they took it to us.

If I you reject analytics then it’s tough to use the things I use discuss what is happening on ice during games.


Players analytics change though. I saved Dom’s charts through the year and there’s always volatility. (I’m going to post them at the end of the year.)

Here’s some Hockey Viz charts for guys you mentioned.


Haula has historically been up and down defensively. He’s kept up his good defensive numbers from last season after leaving Boston, which is a pleasant surprise because not every player does.

Spoiler: Haula

Bastian is a great 4th line winger who very much plays 4th line minutes. (Also not finishing but was finally scoring a bit before he tragically was injured *sob*.)

Spoiler: Bastian

Jesper is making a real impact as defensive forward and can shoot the puck.

Spoiler: Jesper Boqvist

Wood has been all over the place in his career. (Meier is filling in for him with the penalties though.) That’s our Woody.

Spoiler: Wood

 

[My3Sons]

Tatar-Hischier-Meier
Palat-Hughes-Holtz
Bratt-Boqvist-Mercer
Foote-McLeod-Bastian

That actually looks pretty solid for next year

How much are Bratt and Meier making and what contract are you giving Tatar? And how about on defense? Who is replacing Graves and Sevs?

 

[Blackjack]

At this point I don't know how you don't bring Severson back.

 

[Emperoreddy]

At this point I don't know how you don't bring Severson back.

We can't afford him

 

[Bcap88]

At this point I don't know how you don't bring Severson back.

I mean you could bring severson back but then you aren’t bringing back Meier or Bratt

 

[My3Sons]

The team really needs a healthy and productive Jack for the playoffs. I’d have him evaluated for whatever is slowing him down and give him a break to rehab. He’s not killing them out there but he’s not really playing at the level he’s capable of either. I’m sure he wants to play with whatever is bothering him but maybe it can be mitigated before the playoffs?

 

[Blackjack]

We can't afford him

We can

I mean you could bring severson back but then you aren’t bringing back Meier or Bratt

False

Modeling as follows:

Bratt - 8.5
Meier - 8.5
Shara - 2.2
McLeod - 1.1
Boqvist - 1.1
Bahl - 1
Hughes 0.975

That leaves about $10 million to bring back Tatar and Severson. It's doable.

 

[Bcap88]

We can



False

Modeling as follows:

Bratt - 8.5
Meier - 8.5
Shara - 2.2
McLeod - 1.1
Boqvist - 1.1
Bahl - 1
Hughes 0.975

That leaves about $10 million to bring back Tatar and Severson. It's doable.

What happens to nemec then ?

 

[NHL Fanatik]

How much are Bratt and Meier making and what contract are you giving Tatar? And how about on defense? Who is replacing Graves and Sevs?

Did it on CapFriendly - though I wish we could swap the lines around like Mercer LW Palat RW but I digress

And I dont post these numbers down to be debated on good or bad deal, just to put numbers to paper and play Devil's advocate

Just to be quick and easy on deals I gave (max dollars):

Meier 9m x 7
Bratt 8m x 7
Graves 4.5m x 2
Tatar 4m x 2
McLeod 2m x 5
Boqvist 2m x 2
Bastian 1m x 2
Hughes 925k x 2
Bahl 900k x 2
while calling Holtz up at 894,167 x 2

Odds are you dont get two sufficient outside dmen below 4.5 total so thats why I included Graves at 4.5m; the makeup of the D could be different, odds are it includes Luke and Bahl either starting or scratched.

Thatd leave 1,547,500 in cap space. Plenty of ways to swap some of those numbers or players; but even when pushed to the edge with max dollars to most everyone you can make Bratt and Timo work at their desired numbers

After that though we dont really need to get into why I give McLeod 2m or why would Graves sign for two years or Bahl at RD... we should just stick to numbers lol

 

[Blackjack]

What happens to nemec then ?

That's a different question, isn't it?

Nemec plays next year in the AHL. If he's ready in 2024-2025, he platoons like Smith/Bahl this year. If he is simply too good to platoon, you trade Marino or Severson. But that's years away.

 

[Bcap88]

That's a different question, isn't it?

Nemec plays next year in the AHL. If he's ready in 2024-2025, he platoons like Smith/Bahl this year. If he is simply too good to platoon, you trade Marino or Severson. But that's years away.

It is a different question that is worth considering

Severson likely wants term which would essentially block out nemec.

I would rather try and re sign graves as the left side has a little more fluidity to it

 

[jkrdevil]

We can



False

Modeling as follows:

Bratt - 8.5
Meier - 8.5
Shara - 2.2
McLeod - 1.1
Boqvist - 1.1
Bahl - 1
Hughes 0.975

That leaves about $10 million to bring back Tatar and Severson. It's doable.

It isn’t necessarily dollars for next year, it is roster spots long term. Dougie, Marino, Siegs are all signed long term. You don’t really want to sign another defensemen long term potentially blocking Hughes, Nemec, ect.

 

[Blackjack]

Did it on CapFriendly - though I wish we could swap the lines around like Mercer LW Palat RW but I digress

And I dont post these numbers down to be debated on good or bad deal, just to put numbers to paper and play Devil's advocate

Just to be quick and easy on deals I gave (max dollars):

Meier 9m x 7
Bratt 8m x 7
Graves 4.5m x 2
Tatar 4m x 2
McLeod 2m x 5
Boqvist 2m x 2
Bastian 1m x 2
Hughes 925k x 2
Bahl 900k x 2
while calling Holtz up at 894,167 x 2

Odds are you dont get two sufficient outside dmen below 4.5 total so thats why I included Graves at 4.5m; the makeup of the D could be different, odds are it includes Luke and Bahl either starting or scratched.

Thatd leave 1,547,500 in cap space. Plenty of ways to swap some of those numbers or players; but even when pushed to the edge with max dollars to most everyone you can make Bratt and Timo work at their desired numbers

After that though we dont really need to get into why I give McLeod 2m or why would Graves sign for two years or Bahl at RD... we should just stick to numbers lol

That's too much for McLeod, Boqvist, and Tatar. Bringing back Graves at that price rather than Severson is crazy.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

That's too much for McLeod, Boqvist, and Tatar. Bringing back Graves at that price rather than Severson is crazy.

I specifically said it was max dollar deals to push the cap and wasnt posting those to be debated....

but just saying, Tatar at 4 is less than his current 4.5 (stretched two years with SB)

 

[Blackjack]

It isn’t necessarily dollars for next year, it is roster spots long term. Dougie, Marino, Siegs are all signed long term. You don’t really want to sign another defensemen long term potentially blocking Hughes, Nemec, ect.

So you're going to walk away from your second best overall defenseman this season because you're worried about a log jam in a couple of years? I don't agree with that.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

So you're going to walk away from your second best overall defenseman this season because you're worried about a log jam in a couple of years? I don't agree with that.

I think it’s just a necessity to move on. Severson is basically a luxury item right now. He’s feasting on easier matchups. We can’t afford to commit the kind of money he deserves. His replacement is already in house. We’ll bring in a stop gap, but that spot is just being kept warm for Nemec.

 

[jkrdevil]

So you're going to walk away from your second best overall defenseman this season because you're worried about a log jam in a couple of years? I don't agree with that.

It isn’t a couple of years away. It is literally a next year thing. Luke is going to be the lineup in three weeks and is certainly going to be in the lineup next year. Nemec has made strides in the AHL this year and it isn’t unrealistic that he makes further strides over the summer a pushes for a spot in camps or forces his way into the lineup regularly next season. Are you going to trade Severson in year 1 of an expensive long term contract if that happens (btw, any contract he agrees to will likely require trade protection).

Smith is already signed for next year (although he is a guy you can dump) and Bahl is looking like he may be able to play regularly as well. If you want Nemec insurance sign a cheap bet to a one year deal to play 3rd pairing minutes.

And Severson isn’t the team’s 2nd best defense (or 3rd for that matter). He is a 2nd pairing type
defensemen putting up good number because he is playing a third pairing role. Marino is getting the shutdown minutes. When Marino was out and Damon took an elevated role the teams overall play dipped. He’s exactly the guy you walk away from managing the cap and roster in this situation because he will get an inflated deal.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

Also - outside the cap since I just touched on that - what if next year Palat and Mercer agreed to switch wings? Palat has before and Mercer has played center and is versatile as f*** so I doubt he cant LW right?

You could end up running combinations of three insanely balanced scoring lines of:

Tatar-Hischier-Meier
Mercer-Hughes-Holtz
Bratt-Boqvist-Palat

or

Mercer-Hischier-Holtz
Tatar-Hughes-Palat
Bratt-Boqvist-Meier

or

Bratt-Hischier-Holtz
Tatar-Hughes-Meier
Mercer-Boqvist-Palat

and thats all with just Palat and Mercer flipping sides. Think its worth a look. I do know Bratt has played some RW as well as Tatar RW, so maybe you could get really funky with it.

 

[Eggtimer]

So you're going to walk away from your second best overall defenseman this season because you're worried about a log jam in a couple of years? I don't agree with that.

The expectation is Luke and Nemec will be better than Severson. It might be a step back for our D next year but we just cannot afford to pay what Severson realistically will want. Plus if Severson signs for the length he will want ,where does that leave Nemec? The right side is Hamilton Marino signed with term. If you sign Severson ,where does Nemec go?
Left side will be Seigs , Luke , and Bahl . Seigs and Luke are nkt goig anywhere .That leaves Bahl. He is playing very good for an ELC ( that we will need to save on cap hit) .
It just doesnt work out unless Severson agrees to play at a massive massive discount and where is the room for him once Nemec is ready ? We will need Nemec on his ELC. Sadly , it is Seversom that will have to go unless he essentially plays for next to nothing

 

[Xirik]

Can we petition the mods to change the Poll section of the site to just be named "Jack Hughes"?

 

[NHL Fanatik]

The expectation is Luke and Nemec will be better than Severson. It might be a step back for our D next year but we just cannot afford to pay what Severson realistically will want. Plus if Severson signs for the length he will want ,where does that leave Nemec? The right side is Hamilton Marino signed with term. If you sign Severson ,where does Nemec go?
Left side will be Seigs , Luke , and Bahl . Seigs and Luke are nkt goig anywhere .That leaves Bahl. He is playing very good for an ELC ( that we will need to save on cap hit) .
It just doesnt work out unless Severson agrees to play at a massive massive discount and where is the room for him once Nemec is ready ? We will need Nemec on his ELC. Sadly , it is Seversom that will have to go unless he essentially plays for next to nothing

Only way you're keeping Severson is if they think

A) you can trade him mid-deal

And

B) Bahl is ready for 2LD which how could he be

Severson is unfortunately gone though I wont miss his braindead mistakes thats for sure lol

 

[Devs3cups]

Can we petition the mods to change the Poll section of the site to just be named "Jack Hughes"?

Jack is on a cold streak following an injury and everyone is comparing their top guy to Jack as if it’s a flex. It’s a compliment to Jack. His underlying metrics and overall stats are still very good, regardless of the injury.