Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part VI

[Xirik]

Jack is on a cold streak following an injury and everyone is comparing their top guy to Jack as if it’s a flex. It’s a compliment to Jack. His underlying metrics and overall stats are still very good, regardless of the injury.

Just looking at the Canucks recent schedule and upcoming schedule you can really tell the difference is. The West sucks and other then the Stars and Knights they all have losing records against the east.

 

[NjDevsRR]

 

[Guttersniped]

We can



False

Modeling as follows:

Bratt - 8.5
Meier - 8.5
Shara - 2.2
McLeod - 1.1
Boqvist - 1.1
Bahl - 1
Hughes 0.975

That leaves about $10 million to bring back Tatar and Severson. It's doable.

We can’t. You budget your defense separately.

We’re already spending 13.4m on RHD. With Siegenthaler, it’s 16.8m for three defensemen.

Severson will get at least 6.5m as a RHD, very likely more because the UFA market pretty thin.

The way to potentially keep his AAV down is with full term. Toronto got Reilly to 7.5m by giving him 8 years.

Paying 23.3m (or more) for just four defensemen is not going to work. Signing Damon to an 8 year deal is no bueno. You can’t overspend on defense.

He’s a bigger loss than some people on this board realize because they undervalue PMD and what he does.

That doesn’t change the fact that we aren’t going to have another big contract on RHD. If we did re-sign him I also don’t believe we would be thrilled with that contract in a few years.

 

[Blackjack]

We can’t. You budget your defense separately.

We’re already spending 13.4m on RHD. With Siegenthaler, it’s 16.8m for three defensemen.

Severson will get at least 6.5m as a RHD, very likely more because the UFA market pretty thin.

The way to potentially keep his AAV down is with full term. Toronto got Reilly to 7.5m by giving him 8 years.

Paying 23.3m (or more) for just four defensemen is not going to work. Signing Damon to an 8 year deal is no bueno. You can’t overspend on defense.

He’s a bigger loss than some people on this board realize because they undervalue PMD and what he does.

That doesn’t change the fact that we aren’t going to have another big contract on RHD. If we did re-sign him I also don’t believe we would be thrilled with that contract in a few years.

Do you have any comps for that? Genuinely curious. Damon is in kind of a unique spot as a PMD that doesn't put up a ton of points.

One that I came up with is Ekholm. Not a perfect comparison because RHD is the more valuable position. As far as RHD go, Adam Larsson has been a $4 million man for almost a decade. Damon is better, but is he $3 million better?

Anyway, I know Ekholm and Larsson aren't perfect comps by any means, but again, not sure who to use here.

Wondering if you would take Damon back on the Ekholm deal. 4 x 6.25 with no clauses.

Yes, we'd have three long term contracts in addition to the #2 overall pick, but two of those three contracts would be tradable.

 

[My3Sons]

Did it on CapFriendly - though I wish we could swap the lines around like Mercer LW Palat RW but I digress

And I dont post these numbers down to be debated on good or bad deal, just to put numbers to paper and play Devil's advocate

Just to be quick and easy on deals I gave (max dollars):

Meier 9m x 7
Bratt 8m x 7
Graves 4.5m x 2
Tatar 4m x 2
McLeod 2m x 5
Boqvist 2m x 2
Bastian 1m x 2
Hughes 925k x 2
Bahl 900k x 2
while calling Holtz up at 894,167 x 2

Odds are you dont get two sufficient outside dmen below 4.5 total so thats why I included Graves at 4.5m; the makeup of the D could be different, odds are it includes Luke and Bahl either starting or scratched.

Thatd leave 1,547,500 in cap space. Plenty of ways to swap some of those numbers or players; but even when pushed to the edge with max dollars to most everyone you can make Bratt and Timo work at their desired numbers

After that though we dont really need to get into why I give McLeod 2m or why would Graves sign for two years or Bahl at RD... we should just stick to numbers lol

What's the rest of the team and cap? I don't see Shara for example.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Severson has to go. He is too inconsistent for my liking, and he is likely to be very overpaid. We should not be in the business of giving him a longterm contract. Wish him well and move on.

I would much rather keep Graves for probably ~70% of what Damon is going to get. Not to mention, we already have enough RHD.

 

[The Grinder]

I don’t get the wanting to bring Severson back whatsoever

Dougie
Marino
Seigs
Luke
Nemec
Bahl

Where the heck does Sevs fit in long term? I understand next year there is a definitive hole on our right side but beyond that? Just makes no damn sense.

 

[Oneiro]

They can both walk. Most years I consider Severson to be a much better player but there’s zero reason to keep either of them beyond being paranoid about much more talented kids who will probably stick a lot faster then most are expecting. If you want an insurance RHD, sign Gudas or try to trade for Tanev or whatever.

I know the Dom cards are pumping up Graves’ defense this year but I don’t think he’s really good at anything, whether it’s his play in zone or stepping up as the offensive D. He was a great stopgap but probably a major mistake if we go more than 3-4 years.

 

[The Grinder]

I think what annoyed me more than anything in that opening period was not managing the puck and turning it over in the NZ/OZ blue line. Hughes did it multiple times once again.

Do you have any comps for that? Genuinely curious. Damon is in kind of a unique spot as a PMD that doesn't put up a ton of points.

One that I came up with is Ekholm. Not a perfect comparison because RHD is the more valuable position. As far as RHD go, Adam Larsson has been a $4 million man for almost a decade. Damon is better, but is he $3 million better?

Anyway, I know Ekholm and Larsson aren't perfect comps by any means, but again, not sure who to use here.

Wondering if you would take Damon back on the Ekholm deal. 4 x 6.25 with no clauses.

Yes, we'd have three long term contracts in addition to the #2 overall pick, but two of those three contracts would be tradable.

If Damon signs a 4 x 6.25 deal his agent and wife/girlfriend should punch him in the face. He should be looking for max term guaranteed money. I think the cap is not much off from what he will likely get but why in his right mind would he sign a 4 year deal?

And again it’s not the caphit that is completely the problem but that is part of the calculations. With Nemec there is literally no room for Damon. The way our team is going to be constructed we NEED Luke and Nemec on their ELC’s at this point to become regular contributors for the next three years.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Do you have any comps for that? Genuinely curious. Damon is in kind of a unique spot as a PMD that doesn't put up a ton of points.

One that I came up with is Ekholm. Not a perfect comparison because RHD is the more valuable position. As far as RHD go, Adam Larsson has been a $4 million man for almost a decade. Damon is better, but is he $3 million better?

Anyway, I know Ekholm and Larsson aren't perfect comps by any means, but again, not sure who to use here.

Wondering if you would take Damon back on the Ekholm deal. 4 x 6.25 with no clauses.

Yes, we'd have three long term contracts in addition to the #2 overall pick, but two of those three contracts would be tradable.

We just don’t have room for him on a long term deal. Nemec will be here inside of the next 2 seasons. And there’s one spot on the right side open. It’s just a numbers game.

 

[Better Call Sal]

Look, I get it. I'm a loyal guy who gets attached to our players all the time. I still go through waves where I'm really going to miss Severson on our squad after everything he's been through here.

But there is no sense in giving him a long term deal when you have to allocate your assets in other areas and have his replacement coming soon on his entry level deal. Our defense is positioned for the next 5 years at least with Dougie, Siegs, Marino, Luke, Nemec, and hopefully Bahl as well with the way he's been playing as of late. If you want to find a veteran lefty to fill a spot as well, you likely can without breaking the bank in term or cap hit.

Let's go win the f***ing Cup this year with him before we say our goodbyes.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

That Severson money can best be used elsewhere. If you’re going to draft two blue-chip defensemen you have to use them. Nothing indicates that Luke and Nemec aren’t ready for some action next season.

 

[Better Call Sal]

In Conversation with Glenn 'Chico' Resch | 40 YEARS WITH STAN | New Jersey Devils

Stan Fischler sits down with Chico for a trip down memory lane

www.nhl.com

A fun little read with Stan and Chico.

 

[tailfins]

I don't mind the "sign Severson to a long term deal with the intent of trading him in year 2" idea. Even if we're giving trade protection to Severson.

It'd be nice to a) not have to rush Nemec; b) continue to have a dominant right side; and c) get back some assets.

I know it's a risky play and that it's possible that there's not a deal to be made / that the Devils would need to take back a bad contract in order to move Severson. But, with the cap set to rise in another year, I'd think it would create space for Severson - even if he said he'd only go to Seattle, Vancouver, Calgary.

 

[Triumph]

I am not at all convinced that Damon gets a huge long-term deal from anyone. There's not going to be a lot of money around the league and Damon is a luxury player - the Devils have the luxury of using him how they're using him this season and the results are terrific. When he was a top pairing guy, things weren't great. One of the more unusual things about how this league is now is that weirdly, Severson types are overrepresented and 'stay at home' guys are underrepresented, but I feel like GMs don't want to e.g. pair Owen Power with Damon Severson. A lot of teams already have a player like Severson and have a lot of money invested in him and don't want two.

Klingberg got 7M for one year, he's much worse than Severson, but I think Klingberg's going to get significantly less on any sort of long-term deal, if he even gets one. I don't see the team out there that's going to offer Damon something like 7y/6M per.

 

[Blackjack]

I am not at all convinced that Damon gets a huge long-term deal from anyone. There's not going to be a lot of money around the league and Damon is a luxury player - the Devils have the luxury of using him how they're using him this season and the results are terrific. When he was a top pairing guy, things weren't great. One of the more unusual things about how this league is now is that weirdly, Severson types are overrepresented and 'stay at home' guys are underrepresented, but I feel like GMs don't want to e.g. pair Owen Power with Damon Severson. A lot of teams already have a player like Severson and have a lot of money invested in him and don't want two.

Klingberg got 7M for one year, he's much worse than Severson, but I think Klingberg's going to get significantly less on any sort of long-term deal, if he even gets one. I don't see the team out there that's going to offer Damon something like 7y/6M per.

This is why I’m wondering if there are any good comps. Severson is generally viewed as an offensive defenseman. But he plays on PP2, and he doesn’t have a ton of points.

He also seems to have a league wide reputation for gaffes.

On the other hand, he is a RHD, and his transition game is excellent. I’m very curious to see what kind of contract he ends up getting.

 

[Hisch13r]

Dominating the top 3 of the Atlantic for a large majority of our games but having a 2-5-1 record is very annoying.

 

[NHL Fanatik]

What's the rest of the team and cap? I don't see Shara for example.

Thats the entire roster; 21 players so a backup goalie and backup forward/d.

Idt most contenders carry more than two backup skaters nowadays with the cap never increasing

Sharangovich in this hypothetical is traded, Wood let go, Haula let go, Severson let go and Blackwood RFA rights traded

Any deal I didnt list is already a established contract on the roster

That Severson money can best be used elsewhere. If you’re going to draft two blue-chip defensemen you have to use them. Nothing indicates that Luke and Nemec aren’t ready for some action next season.

Im definitely thinking Nemec stays in the A for next year, theres no need to have him up; maybe if Utica stinks he comes up for a playoff run

You dont want to have two top-4 pick dmen learning same year same curve, spread it out a little.

 

[Clam Jensen]

Dominating the top 3 of the Atlantic for a large majority of our games but having a 2-5-1 record is very annoying.

A lot of swallowed whistles too.

 

[JimEIV]

That Severson money can best be used elsewhere. If you’re going to draft two blue-chip defensemen you have to use them. Nothing indicates that Luke and Nemec aren’t ready for some action next season.

Neither of these two prospects are going to be able to provide what Severson does for at least another couple of years.

I mentioned in the Luke thread, I don't think Luke is NHL ready right now. I think we going to have to go through a lot of growing pains with Luke defensively next year. But if we can keep him sheltered and ease him in it won't be too big of a problem... that said, I am not sure how you can do that with two rookie Dmen that both may need varying degrees of hand holding for the next two seasons.

One of Severson or Graves has to be back next year. Or a veteran 7th better than Smith has to be added we can't go into next season with Bahl, Luke and Nemec as the top 7. All of those 3 just aren't ready to be 20+ minutes a night regular NHL Dman and that's what you'll be asking from at least one of them.

Asking one of them to fill the 20+ minutes role and giving the other two no support of a veteran Dman would be a real bad move.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Dominating the top 3 of the Atlantic for a large majority of our games but having a 2-5-1 record is very annoying.

Yeah those Toronto and Boston games were annoying. I feel 1-1-1 against Tampa was adequate.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Dominating the top 3 of the Atlantic for a large majority of our games but having a 2-5-1 record is very annoying.

Really intrigued to see how we play Boston soon without being in our biggest slump of the year

 

[glenwo2]

IT'S A SIGN!

*chanting* (sign the damn contract....sign the damn contract....sign the damn contract) *chanting*

 

[njdevil26]

Yeah those Toronto and Boston games were annoying. I feel 1-1-1 against Tampa was adequate.

Honestly if our record is going to be that bad against those teams, we have to remember:

One Toronto loss was an absolute clown show
The first Tampa game the Devils were deflated after a terrible overturned goal
The second game they outplayed the Bolts but couldn't capitalize on a two minute 5 on 3.
The third game they dominated for 2 periods and won.
The two Boston games (if I remember correctly) were in the middle of a rough stretch and the Devils still won the deserve-to-win o meter.

If one of those teams beats up/destroys the Devils then you get worried.. but even in the losses they either should have won or were in it til the end.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

Neither of these two prospects are going to be able to provide what Severson does for at least another couple of years.

I mentioned in the Luke thread, I don't think Luke is NHL ready right now. I think we going to have to go through a lot of growing pains with Luke defensively next year. But if we can keep him sheltered and ease him in it won't be too big of a problem... that said, I am not sure how you can do that with two rookie Dmen that both may need varying degrees of hand holding for the next two seasons.

One of Severson or Graves has to be back next year. Or a veteran 7th better than Smith has to be added we can't go into next season with Bahl, Luke and Nemec as the top 7. All of those 3 just aren't ready to be 20+ minutes a night regular NHL Dman and that's what you'll be asking from at least one of them.

Asking one of them to fill the 20+ minutes role and giving the other two no support of a veteran Dman would be a real bad move.

You might not be wrong, but that doesn’t mean you can commit the term and money it would take and handcuff yourself potentially as early as year one of that deal. Just doesn’t make sense.