Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - part IV

[Emperoreddy]

They are supposed to be wearing the stadium series jerseys tomorrow, it's the only reason I'm even going.

Ahhh the rare time the team did something good this year

 

[billingtons ghost]

I will refer you to the above post.

also, McLeod being gone for being a sex pest also plays into the above. And thats not even touching on the goaltending situation.

That post above like alot of yours, takes player performance as if it is in a vacuum instead of ever looking holistically at the team.

In no way did Siegs forget how to play, or Marino got bad... They simply were part of a D squad that was overmatched and put everyone out of their comfort zone.

In no world should Marino be trying to help shelter a lesser defensive defenseman, bc in order to be free to play his game (picking up loose pucks and looking up ice) he needs someone to do some of the physical work and shelter him.

Yes players can take steps backwards in their development, but in hockey it's usually bc of their usage or pairing changing, and then whatever dearth of confidence results.

Severson as a top pairing defenseman was a horror show on a team of defensive horrors and a luxury guy taking third pairing assignments last year.

 

[JimEIV]

You raise a good point about what makes a veteran. The Devils have a young roster by and large which contributes to losing according to NHL conventional wisdom. I’d say that it takes more than hitting 25 and playing in a couple of playoff series to be a veteran. My oldest just turned 27. I’m not sure he’s a veteran yet. He thinks he is but he just called my wife and asked her to get him a blender off Amazon. And he’s a summa cum laude graduate with a double major in math and computers so it’s clearly not just a function of what you might know.

I've seen this argument on this site before and I've seen all kinds of opinions of "what is a veteran"

But I would make one simple point... The first 3 years a player gets an ENTRY LEVEL contract.... that's potentially 246 games...at the very least it would seem impossible to be a "veteran" in this games played range...Can a veteran be on an ELC?

Now look at this.... Dawson Mercer is at 232 games played right now, he has a real potential to reach that 246 mark by seasons end.... I don't think anyone in their right mind would call Mercer a veteran next year just kicking off his first contract?

But....

Marino started this season with 253 games played.

Siegenthaler started this season with 255 games

Siegenthaler and Marino started this season within 20 games of where Dawson Mercer is right now.

And Jack started this season with 244 games played...that's within 10 games of where both Siegenthaler and Marino started this season.

All Veterans? Bullshit they are. None of them are. But especially an under 300 games played defenseman is no way in the world a veteran.

It took 185 games to figure out Micro Mueller couldn't play in this league. That's literally where Siegenthaler(175 GP) and Marino(193 GP)were to start the 2022-23 season last year. Now they're veterans?

 

[MasterofGrond]

That post above like alot of yours, takes player performance as if it is in a vacuum instead of ever looking holistically at the team.

In no way did Siegs forget how to play, or Marino got bad... They simply were part of a D squad that was overmatched and put everyone out of their comfort zone.

In no world should Marino be trying to help shelter a lesser defensive defenseman, bc in order to be free to play his game (picking up loose pucks and looking up ice) he needs someone to do some of the physical work and shelter him.

Yes players can take steps backwards in their development, but in hockey it's usually bc of their usage or pairing changing, and then whatever dearth of confidence results.

Severson as a top pairing defenseman was a horror show on a team of defensive horrors and a luxury guy taking third pairing assignments last year.

There's usage problems, and there's going from one of the best defensive defenseman in the league to one of the worst.

I'm not saying coaching/usage/etc don't play into it. Like with any change of this magnitude, there are multiple factors at play. But he covered for Graves last year, and Graves is not particularly better defensively than Luke Hughes according to any stat you like.

"But he's a VET," yeah and he's also a moron who thinks he's Bobby f***ing Orr.

And Marino has looked like dogshit with every partner he's had this year. Bad with Luke, bad with Bahl, and even worse with Siegs. The common factor on every really bad pairing is Marino. If you meet assholes all day...

 

[JimEIV]

There's usage problems, and there's going from one of the best defensive defenseman in the league to one of the worst.

I'm not saying coaching/usage/etc don't play into it. Like with any change of this magnitude, there are multiple factors at play. But he covered for Graves last year, and Graves is not particularly better defensively than Luke Hughes according to any stat you like.

"But he's a VET," yeah and he's also a moron who thinks he's Bobby f***ing Orr.

And Marino has looked like dogshit with every partner he's had this year. Bad with Luke, bad with Bahl, and even worse with Siegs. The common factor on every really bad pairing is Marino. If you meet assholes all day...

There is so much wrong with that bolded part ...but most of all the actual result are exact opposite of what you are saying.

Luke bleeds goals against....Graves was the exact opposite.

If Marino covered for Graves, how did Graves end up +34 to lead the defense by a pretty wide bit?

Graves +34 and Luke -22 is a 56 goal swing in the wrong direction....and I don't give a crap about onIce SV% because the defenders on ice are partially responsible for that SV%

 

[MasterofGrond]

There is so much wrong with that bolded part ...but most of all the actual result are exact opposite of what you are saying.

Luke bleeds goals against....Graves was the exact opposite.

If Marino covered for Graves, how did Graves end up +34 to lead the defense by a pretty wide bit?

Graves +34 and Luke -22 is a 56 goal swing in the wrong direction....and I don't give a crap about onIce SV% because the defenders on ice are partially responsible for that SV%

“I don’t care about this thing objectively f***ing them because the goalie is only responsible for most of it, not all of it” is definitely an easy way to avoid reckoning with a pesky fact.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

In January or early February I told @TheUnseenHand that we no doubt would catch Philadelphia in a GDT...I didn't see how we couldn't have been in 3rd place in the Division. The collapse has been epic.

It wasn't hard to see something was broken with this team. The Anaheim game where Jack went full baby mode I think was the point I realized there was no chance. That was something I don't remember seeing from any player in a long time. Maybe you excuse that if it's his first year, but something had to be really wrong for a guy with multiple years experience to go off the rails like that. And for the team to follow fully in the implosion was enough for me to say that was it.

 

[theoptimist]

I think we need to add at least 3 forwards. One of whom can be a legit second line guy if needed. The other two can be middle 6 guys with emphasis on the third line.

Honestly, I feel like I'd be kind of surprised if Fitz does much on the defensive side. If there is one thing Fitz has shown, it's an ability to be patient, and I don't think he's going to bail on Siegs and Marino after a poor year when they were so good the year before. I've kicked around the idea of moving Marino for a another type of d-man on the right and reallocating the rest of his money to the forward group, but I don't know if that's really in play.

The only real likely option to switch out there might be Bahl, so maybe they make a move where they trade someone like Bahl + a pick for a rental (similar to what we did with Rango / Toffoli this year). But honestly wouldn't surprise me if they didn't do much of anything besides sign a 7th defenseman.

This season, Bahl's been better than Siegenthaler and his ($3.4M/year contract). Siegenthaler has plenty of value but he cannot anchor our left side and be our #1 option. An upgrade on Siegenthaler while Bahl + Luke benefit from an additional season should improve the left side of our defense next season.

 

[MasterofGrond]

ultimately, unless the argument is “Graves and Marino have a unique chemistry” blaming Graves’ departure when he was pretty bad with every other partner last year doesn’t make sense.

And if you are claiming Graves has a unique chemistry with Marino, then Marino sucks without him and isn’t the one getting dragged down by his partners

 

[JimEIV]

“I don’t care about this thing objectively f***ing them because the goalie is only responsible for most of it, not all of it” is definitely an easy way to avoid reckoning with a pesky fact.

So it's not the goalie when Miller is on the ice +10 or when is Bahl+4 is on the ice... Just when Luke team second worst and worst defender is on the ice -22

This isn't goaltending this is Luke
Miller +10
Bahl +4
Nemec -1
Smith -2
Siegenthaler -4
Marino -12
Luke -22

One of those is an anomaly.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

So it's not the goalie when Miller is on the ice +10 or when is Bahl+4 is on the ice... Just when Luke team second worst and worst defender is on the ice -22

This isn't goaltending this is Luke
Miller +10
Bahl +4
Nemec -1
Smith -2
Siegenthaler -4
Marino -12
Luke -22

One of those is an anomaly.

No, this is what you call dishonest hackery. Think for 10 seconds about these numbers. Luke has been out there for 41 GF and 48 GA at 5 on 5. He’s been out there for 18 empty net goals.

 

[AfroThunder396]

+/- is a function of ES time on ice and team quality. If your team has a strong ES goal differential, and you play a lot of minutes for that team, then your +/- is going to look good. If you play a lot of minutes on a bad ES team, likewise that will be reflected in your +/- (see: Severson, Damon).

Let's look at some of the top +/- players in the league this year:

1. Gustav Forsling - FLA
(18:10 ES/game - 2nd on team)
2. Quinn Hughes - VAN
(20:10 ES/game - 1st on team)
3. Dylan DeMelo - WIN
(19:08 ES/game - 2nd on team)
4. Filip Hronek - VAN
(19:58 ES/game - 2nd on team)
5. JT Miller - VAN
(14:43 ES/game - 8th on team/2nd amongst forwards)
6. Mattias Ekholm - EDM
(18:04 ES/game - 3rd on team)
7. Connor McDavid - EDM
(17:52 ES/game - 3rd on team/1st amongst forwards)
8. Zach Hyman - EDM
(16:25 ES/game - 7th on team/3rd amongst forwards)
9. Nathan MacKinnon - COL
(18:13 ES/game - 3rd on team/2nd amongst forwards)
10. Brock Boeser - VAN
(14:59 ES/game - 8th on team/1st amongst forwards)
11. Nikolaj Ehlers - WIN
(13:45 ES/game - 9th on team/4th amongst forwards)
12. Aaron Ekblad - FLA
(16:38 ES/game - 4th on team)
13. Josh Morrissey - WIN
(20:55 ES/game - 1st on team)
14. Evan Bouchard - EDM
(19:13 ES/game - 1st on team)
15. Evan Rodrigues - FLA
(13:28 ES/game - 13th on team/6th amongst forwards)

I wonder what teams are represented here?

x3 from WIN (1st in ES goal differential, +58)
x4 from VAN (2nd in ES goal differential, +55)
x3 from FLA (3rd in goal differential, +41)
x4 from EDM (4th in goal differential, +32)
x1 from COL (T-5th in goal differential, +30)

Now let's look at the 15 WORST players in the league in terms of +/-. Don't worry, I won't overwhelm you with as many numbers this time.

1. William Eklund - SJ
2. Philipp Kurashev - CHI
3. Connor Bedard - CHI
4. Filip Zadina - SJ
5. Cam Fowler - ANA
6. Kyle Burroughs - SJ
7. Mike Matheson - MTL
8. Kevin Korchinski - CHI
9. Mario Ferraro - SJ
10 Calen Addison - SJ
11. Tyler Johnson - CHI
12. Mackenzie Entwhistle - CHI
13. Luke Kunin - SJ
14. Lukas Reichel - CHI
15. Tomas Hertl - SJ

I wonder what teams are represented here?

x7 from SJ (32nd in ES goal differential, -91)
x6 from CHI (31st in ES goal differential, -78)
x1 from ANA (30th in ES goal differential, -44)
x1 from MTL (29th in ES goal differential, -24)

It's almost like....playing a lot for good teams makes you have high +/-, while playing a lot for bad teams makes you have a low +/-?

 

[MartyOwns]

we’re like 3 weeks away from luke being called a disgrace

 

[Billdo]

We just needed more from our veterans like Jack Hughes. Don'tcha think?

Well done. Maybe Marino and Siegenthaler, the youngsters, are in over their head.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Luke Hughes sucks — look at his +/-. Anyway, this guy was amazing and losing him destroyed the team:

 

[AfroThunder396]

By the way, the team leader in +/- last year was not Ryan Graves, it was Tomas Tatar.

Shouldn't we be arguing that losing such a Selke-caliber, elite defensive forward is more responsible for the decline in our team defense?

 

[Guttersniped]

There's usage problems, and there's going from one of the best defensive defenseman in the league to one of the worst.

I'm not saying coaching/usage/etc don't play into it. Like with any change of this magnitude, there are multiple factors at play. But he covered for Graves last year, and Graves is not particularly better defensively than Luke Hughes according to any stat you like.

"But he's a VET," yeah and he's also a moron who thinks he's Bobby f***ing Orr.

And Marino has looked like dogshit with every partner he's had this year. Bad with Luke, bad with Bahl, and even worse with Siegs. The common factor on every really bad pairing is Marino. If you meet assholes all day...

The one reason we’re struggling is we had three effective defensive pairs last season:
Siegenthaler-Hamilton
Graves-Marino
Someone-Severson

And we have no pairing we’ve had this year after Hamilton went down has been good as any of these.

The Luke-Smith pair was dogshit, and Smith-Miller pair did way better, so is Luke dogshit? Is this how that works?

Some pairing are more effective than others. We lost the two guys that play well just about anyone with Hamilton going down and Severson gone.

The underlying numbers of Luke/Marino were actually good, Luke makes Severson-style mistakes though, the goaltending was worse, as was the play of the forward lines. We had a more effective shutdown line version of Nico’s line last year for them to play with for example.

Also Marino’s pairing has been getting even tougher minutes this season, which is saying something, but everyone else is a bit sheltered if possible.

Finally, the defense has been a mess this year compared to last year, but I don’t know why Hamilton’s absence isn’t seen as just a big problem.

 

[Devs3cups]

we’re like 3 weeks away from luke being called a disgrace

We should love and cherish our talented young first pair D prospects, not shame them

 

[Guttersniped]

By the way, the team leader in +/- last year was not Ryan Graves, it was Tomas Tatar.

Shouldn't we be arguing that losing such a Selke-caliber, elite defensive forward is more responsible for the decline in our team defense?

It didn’t help actually, he worked well with Nico.

Oh wait, this is sarcasm because defending our two young defenders is more important than discussing our defensive issues.

 

[Guttersniped]

There is so much wrong with that bolded part ...but most of all the actual result are exact opposite of what you are saying.

Luke bleeds goals against....Graves was the exact opposite.

If Marino covered for Graves, how did Graves end up +34 to lead the defense by a pretty wide bit?

Graves +34 and Luke -22 is a 56 goal swing in the wrong direction....and I don't give a crap about onIce SV% because the defenders on ice are partially responsible for that SV%

How exactly does Graves last year prove your new “Veteran theory” when he finished last season with 302 NHL GP?

 

[AfroThunder396]

It didn’t help actually, he worked well with Nico.

Oh wait, this is sarcasm because defending our two young defenders is more important than discussing our defensive issues.

Of course it's sarcasm. Are you suggesting "bad plus/minus = bad defensive player" is an legitimate argument that should be taken seriously?

There are plenty of honest reasons to criticize Luke this season, we don't need to invent silly ones just to prove a point.

 

[JimEIV]

How exactly does Graves last year prove your new “Veteran theory” when he finished last season with 302 NHL GP?

What is my "veteran theory". I think you are confused?

By the way, the team leader in +/- last year was not Ryan Graves, it was Tomas Tatar.

Shouldn't we be arguing that losing such a Selke-caliber, elite defensive forward is more responsible for the decline in our team defense?

Graves led the defense. As was stated.. don't care about the forwards....was exclusively talking about defenders

 

[MasterofGrond]

Finally, the defense has been a mess this year compared to last year, but I don’t know why Hamilton’s absence isn’t seen as just a big problem.

I think it’s because a not insignificant part of the fanbase inexplicably thinks Dougie is a defensive abyss who gets heavily sheltered, instead of a play driving maniac who keeps the puck going downhill for 22 minutes a game.

Catastrophic loss.

 

[forceten]

Six full seasons would be about 500 games. I think that's a veteran minimum, but playoff experience would be helpful too. If they have a lot of fried protein that burned a little they're grizzled veterans. If they treat dogs and cats in the off season they're grizzled veterinarians.

 

[HBK27]

Just when you think Rachel Doerrie couldn't top herself, she suggests we trade Nemec for a year of Ullmark...