Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part III

[JimEIV]

If Dawson Mercer takes a 2 or 3 year deal and actually plays well, he will make much more money than if he locks himself into a long term deal now. A bridge deal is good for our short term, and potentially very good for Dawson’s long term. The cap is going to jump up multiple times and he’ll have more leverage (again, if he plays well).

Not sure why you’re acting like he’s doing us a favor by signing a bridge deal. He takes on some risk, but he can make out very nicely.

There won't be anything left in 2 or 3 years....Luke is going to be over 9.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1810404739324018865

Lol wtf

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

There won't be anything left in 2 or 3 years....Luke is going to be over 9.

There will be lots of money between the cap increasing and players getting bought out/traded, or whatever.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I couldn't imagine worrying about the salary cap in THREE years. Look at the Devils team from three years ago vs now. Teams change so much over that timeframe..

 

[britdevil]

There won't be anything left in 2 or 3 years....Luke is going to be over 9.

Noesen, Haula, Dillon and Palat will all be gone in 2-3 years.

What are you going on about Jim?

 

[Unknown Caller]

Nemec is going to command a bigger contract than Luke Hughes. Kid is going to be absolutely phenomenal as early as next year.

 

[Maine Fan]

Don’t forget the new goalie consultant

I did forget or I missed it. I will check it out. Thanks as usual

 

[Guttersniped]

That projection was from january.

At that point mercer had 23 points in 47 games, and was closer in time to his good 22-23 season.

After that point mercer finished off the season with 10 points in 35 games. So his value is definitely lower than it was in january.

And onto that projection. Let's look at Lundell. It had him at 6 mill AAV x 6. Off by a mill, and that projection was from BEFORE lundell finished off the season with 17 points in his final 33 regular season games, and then 17 points in 24 playoff games.

So in conclusion. Since then, Mercer has lowered his value, and despite Lundell 100% raising his value significantly with his end to the season, he still got 1 mill AAV less than that projection

Those were preliminary numbers, end of the year ones for Lundell were:

Then add Florida + Stanley Cup. He got ~87%.

For Mercer that’s 2 years/3.34m and 5 years/4.64m. That longterm deal would be amazing but unlikely.

I don’t feel like “Mercer lowered his value” is a thing, but I don’t view players’ value as fluctuating a ton as some. People had Bratt’s value go up and down like a yo-yo too, I didn’t see that either.

If the team isn’t comfortable with a long term deal it will be a short bridge deal.

I’m also big fan of Mercer’s future so the public estimates are fine to me, but I’m a fan and not his agent/relative, so I only care how the deal works for the team.

His agent is Pat Brisson so this should be a relatively smooth negotiation.

Mercer wants to be here long term, and doesn’t seem mercenary, and Brisson gets what his clients want so maybe something longer happens now.

Note: I haven’t read all this shit, so I might have missed many of the nuances of… whatever this is.

 

[NjDevsRR]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1810404739324018865

Lol wtf

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

I couldn't imagine worrying about the salary cap in THREE years. Look at the Devils team from three years ago vs now. Teams change so much over that timeframe..

While money is more easily moved than most fans care to admit, Devils will have a lot of their core locked up to term and high dollar; thatll be harder to navigate around then just a few select, high-paid players

Both Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Meier, Nemec, and id go as far as to include Mercer - these guys arent going anywhere. Pesce will also be here a minimum of three years and Dougie two

Palat will be gone next year and maybe one of Dillon or Siegenthaler, if they want extra room to make a play for someone.

Plus if they ever need to pay for a goalie (if none of the kids work out)

That leaves a large sum of space but when you account for the pay Nemec and Luke will get, it wont be as much as wed like

Cap will probably rise 12-15mil in that timeframe but salaries will have risen quite a bit as well, as we get more record-setting deals.

I dont think we should be concerned about the cap in three years - but being careful about it could go a long way towards our continued success at or near the top

(especially since it looks like we will be depending on a very select few internal options for the middle-6 in three years; may need to go UFAs or acquired RFAs)

 

[JimEIV]

Games Mercer played more than 8 5v5 minutes with Nico
2 in October...the first two
0 in November
0 in December
5 in January
1 in February
1 in March
1 in April

Games Mercer played more than 8 5v5 minutes with Jack
0 in October
3 in November
1 in December
0 in January
1 in February
1 in March
0 in April

With Bratt 1 total.
1 November 10th

You're looking at at 16 games over 7 months.... Mercer didn't play top 6 minutes at all this season.

Palat played significantly more top 6 time...with Nico over 8 minutes 5v5 time

3 In October
2 in November
14 in December
0 in January
10 in February
1 in March
0 in April

And this is why Palat's defensive metrics look better than he was, because he got to play with Nico. Palat got more top 6 minutes in December than Mercer did all season.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Me printing out this thread each morning and reading it on my commute

 

[dgibb10]

While money is more easily moved than most fans care to admit, Devils will have a lot of their core locked up to term and high dollar; thatll be harder to navigate around then just a few select, high-paid players

Both Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Meier, Nemec, and id go as far as to include Mercer - these guys arent going anywhere. Pesce will also be here a minimum of three years and Dougie two

Palat will be gone next year and maybe one of Dillon or Siegenthaler, if they want extra room to make a play for someone.

Plus if they ever need to pay for a goalie (if none of the kids work out)

That leaves a large sum of space but when you account for the pay Nemec and Luke will get, it wont be as much as wed like

Cap will probably rise 12-15mil in that timeframe but salaries will have risen quite a bit as well, as we get more record-setting deals.

I dont think we should be concerned about the cap in three years - but being careful about it could go a long way towards our continued success at or near the top

(especially since it looks like we will be depending on a very select few internal options for the middle-6 in three years; may need to go UFAs or acquired RFAs)

Estimates for 2026/27

Dillon almost certainly pushed out (wish we were able to get a 2 year deal there, or pick up a guy like Walman instead), same with Palat.
Hamilton moved would create a ton of space if Casey is ready, otherwise using Casey to trade to fill the 3C role or a top 6 forward could be an option.

Figuring out how to keep a cheap and effective bottom 6 will be a priority.

Forgot cotter. Cheaper on the 3C probably.

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

Games Mercer played more than 8 5v5 minutes with Nico
2 in October...the first two
0 in November
0 in December
5 in January
1 in February
1 in March
1 in April

Games Mercer played more than 8 5v5 minutes with Jack
0 in October
3 in November
1 in December
0 in January
1 in February
1 in March
0 in April

With Bratt 1 total.
1 November 10th

You're looking at at 16 games over 7 months.... Mercer didn't play top 6 minutes at all this season.

Palat played significantly more top 6 time...with Nico over 8 minutes 5v5 time

3 In October
2 in November
14 in December
0 in January
10 in February
1 in March
0 in April

And this is why Palat's defensive metrics look better than he was, because he got to play with Nico. Palat got more top 6 minutes in December than Mercer did all season.

I do believe Palat should be used strictly in the top-6 this season and for multiple reasons; it could help his value, hes the perfect fit for Jacks line to do the dirty work, and we seem to be all-in this season before we have to pay some of the youngsters

I think, outside shifting lines throughout the year, the best third line well end up with will be Tatar-Haula-Noesen, with Palat and Mercer taking the final two top-6 spots

 

[Moist ReadOnly]

Estimates for 2026/27

Dillon almost certainly pushed out (wish we were able to get a 2 year deal there, or pick up a guy like Walman instead), same with Palat.
Hamilton moved would create a ton of space if Casey is ready, otherwise using Casey to trade to fill the 3C role or a top 6 forward could be an option.

Figuring out how to keep a cheap and effective bottom 6 will be a priority.
View attachment 893418

I do believe Dougie stays until his deal ends if hes an efficient top-4 minutes player.

He openly wanted to come here and it was the beginning of the wave of guys seeing NJ as a place to be; and I recognize this lapses with the team becoming good after a long rebuild.. but the look of moving him while we contend, if we can keep his hit, is rough in my opinion

Id do it if necessary, of course. But I can see him having a Burns-like trajectory

 

[HoliksGhost]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1810404739324018865

Lol wtf

We look good on paper baby !!

 

[Devs3cups]

Nemec is going to command a bigger contract than Luke Hughes. Kid is going to be absolutely phenomenal as early as next year.

Our two long-term pillars on D. What a time.

Lucky to have these 2 guys for the future as long-term pieces.

 

[HoliksGhost]

I couldn't imagine worrying about the salary cap in THREE years. Look at the Devils team from three years ago vs now. Teams change so much over that timeframe..

…”Don’t worry about my cap in three years”… Lou

 

[JimEIV]

I do believe Palat should be used strictly in the top-6 this season and for multiple reasons; it could help his value, hes the perfect fit for Jacks line to do the dirty work, and we seem to be all-in this season before we have to pay some of the youngsters

I think, outside shifting lines throughout the year, the best third line well end up with will be Tatar-Haula-Noesen, with Palat and Mercer taking the final two top-6 spots

I really think Palat might be done. I'm sure he can be responsible and play a good enough defensive game but I really don't think he belongs in the top 6. The offense just is there...it was never a really strong point for him at any point of his career but you can't go as long as he did without scoring a goal...and quite a bit of that time was with Nico.

Neither of the LW options are great for the top 6 in my opinion Tatar or Palat...Or Haula double yuck.

Nemec is going to command a bigger contract than Luke Hughes. Kid is going to be absolutely phenomenal as early as next year.

I willing bet you anything on that.... I'm ready to go full Shane Pinto! Let's go.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Games Mercer played more than 8 5v5 minutes with Nico
2 in October...the first two
0 in November
0 in December
5 in January
1 in February
1 in March
1 in April

Games Mercer played more than 8 5v5 minutes with Jack
0 in October
3 in November
1 in December
0 in January
1 in February
1 in March
0 in April

With Bratt 1 total.
1 November 10th

You're looking at at 16 games over 7 months.... Mercer didn't play top 6 minutes at all this season.

Palat played significantly more top 6 time...with Nico over 8 minutes 5v5 time

3 In October
2 in November
14 in December
0 in January
10 in February
1 in March
0 in April

And this is why Palat's defensive metrics look better than he was, because he got to play with Nico. Palat got more top 6 minutes in December than Mercer did all season.

Palat 53% xGs away from Nico, 60.5% with Nico (Nico 49% away from Palat)

Mercer 51% without Nico, 43% with Nico (Nico 56% away from Mercer)

 

[TrufleShufle]

We’re currently in a position where we should be adding another forward but can’t because of the cap.

#Palatneverstoppedus

 

[JimEIV]

Palat 53% xGs away from Nico, 60.5% with Nico (Nico 49% away from Palat)

Mercer 51% without Nico, 43% with Nico (Nico 56% away from Mercer)

Why are you looking at expected goals?

And Mercer hardly played with Nico at all this year.

 

[njdevils1982]

palat needs to wake up...last season he put up some andreas f***ing johnsson numbers for 6M

ya, ya,, ages different but 6M?.. at least he's more versatile than AFJ

OP

AFJ

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Why are you looking at expected goals?

And Mercer hardly played with Nico at all this year.

Probably because he was absolutely awful from game 1 and had no business playing up in the lineup. Palat on the other hand was excellent with Nico Hischier, so he played a lot with Nico Hischier.

 

[JimEIV]

Probably because he was absolutely awful from game 1 and had no business playing up in the lineup. Palat on the other hand was excellent with Nico Hischier, so he played a lot with Nico Hischier.

I am not trying to be a dick to you but do you understand how ridiculous this sounds? Pull the plug on the top 6 for Mercer after 2&1/2 games from the start of the season?

That's literally what happened. Like his previous two years and playoffs didn't happen?